Turkey Hatchery ISSN: 1949-1964 Released March 15, 2018, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Eggs in Incubators on March 1 Down 5 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on March 1, 2018, in the United States totaled 28.5 million, down 5 percent from March 1, 2017. Eggs in incubators were up slightly from the February 1, 2018 total of 28.4 million eggs. Poults Hatched During February Down 4 Percent from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during February 2018, in the United States totaled 22.7 million, down 4 percent from February 2017. Poults hatched were down 6 percent from the January 2018 total of 24.3 million poults. Net Poults Placed During February Down 3 Percent from Last Year The 21.2 million net poults placed during February 2018 in the United States were down 3 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net poult placements were down 6 percent from the January 2018 total of 22.6 million. Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2016-2018 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Eggs in incubators :Percent of: Poults hatched :Percent of : first of month : previous : entire month : previous Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year : : : : : : :2016-2017 :2017-2018 : :2016-2017 :2017-2018 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --- 1,000 eggs -- percent 1,000 poults percent : September ........: 28,927 28,907 100 23,645 23,469 99 October ..........: 28,409 28,025 99 23,572 24,313 103 November .........: 27,179 28,519 105 22,782 23,166 102 December .........: 28,795 27,716 96 25,422 22,295 88 January ..........: 29,961 28,920 97 25,332 24,293 96 February .........: 29,906 28,396 95 23,598 22,725 96 March ............: 30,030 28,505 95 25,719 April ............: 28,597 23,179 May ..............: 28,825 24,067 June .............: 29,441 25,075 July .............: 29,271 24,616 August ...........: 29,725 24,786 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2016-2018 [Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Total all :Percent of: Cumulative :Percent of : breeds : previous : total : previous Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year : : : : : : :2016-2017 :2017-2018 : :2016-2017 :2017-2018 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 poults percent -- 1,000 poults -- percent : September ........: 21,581 20,612 96 21,581 20,612 96 October ..........: 21,381 21,960 103 42,962 42,572 99 November .........: 21,334 21,329 100 64,296 63,901 99 December .........: 22,980 20,690 90 87,276 84,591 97 January ..........: 22,966 22,564 98 110,242 107,155 97 February .........: 21,995 21,249 97 132,237 128,404 97 March ............: 23,544 155,781 April ............: 22,139 177,920 May ..............: 22,538 200,458 June .............: 23,899 224,357 July .............: 23,915 248,272 August ...........: 24,239 272,511 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS regional field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS regional field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production - Annual Summary report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 28.5 million eggs by more than 1.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.9 percent. Reliability of March Turkey Hatchery Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate :square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------ Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :--------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ---- number ---- : Eggs in incubators ................: 1.7 2.9 319 0 1,359 18 5 : Poults hatched ....................: 1.1 1.9 169 0 815 13 9 : Net poult placements ..............: 2.0 3.4 386 55 868 8 16 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ........................................................ (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ................................... (202) 720-4447 Holly Brenize - Egg Products, Mink........................................................... (202) 720-0585 Aaron Cosgrove - Catfish Production, Poultry Slaughter, Trout Production, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ......................................................................... (202) 690-3237 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses ..................... (202) 720-4751 Mike Guo - Cost of Pollination, Honey, Honey Bee Colonies ................................... (202) 720-6147 Fatema Haque - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ........................................... (202) 720-3244 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs .................................................................. (202) 690-3676 Miste Salmon - Census of Agriculture, Census of Aquaculture ................................. (202) 690-8632 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 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