Turkey Hatchery
ISSN: 1949-1964
Released January 14, 2016, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Eggs in Incubators on January 1 Down 8 Percent from Last Year
Turkey eggs in incubators on January 1, 2016, in the United States totaled
26.9 million, down 8 percent from January 1, 2015. Eggs in incubators were up
5 percent from the December 1, 2015 total of 25.7 million eggs.
Poults Hatched During December Down 9 Percent from Last Year
Turkey poults hatched during December 2015, in the United States totaled
22.5 million, down 9 percent from December 2014. Poults hatched were up
7 percent from the November 2015 total of 21.1 million poults.
Net Poults Placed During December Down 1 Percent from Last Year
The 22.4 million net poults placed during December 2015 in the United States
were down 1 percent from the number placed during the same month a year
earlier. Net placements were up 6 percent from the November 2015 total of
21.0 million.
Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2014-2016
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Eggs in incubators :Percent of: Poults hatched :Percent of
: first of month : previous : entire month : previous
Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year
: : : : : :
:2014-2015 :2015-2016 : :2014-2015 :2015-2016 :
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: --- 1,000 eggs -- percent 1,000 poults percent
:
September ........: 27,388 23,796 87 22,844 19,530 85
October ..........: 27,842 24,214 87 23,744 20,623 87
November .........: 28,004 25,128 90 21,936 21,061 96
December .........: 28,964 25,707 89 24,660 22,538 91
January ..........: 29,281 26,885 92 24,023
February .........: 27,144 21,721
March ............: 28,250 24,179
April ............: 28,799 23,261
May ..............: 26,845 22,161
June .............: 27,232 23,129
July .............: 27,357 22,966
August ...........: 27,046 22,008
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2014-2016
[Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period
has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Total all :Percent of: Cumulative :Percent of
: breeds : previous : total : previous
Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year
: : : : : :
:2014-2015 :2015-2016 : :2014-2015 :2015-2016 :
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 poults percent -- 1,000 poults -- percent
:
September ........: 21,169 19,042 90 21,169 19,042 90
October ..........: 21,695 20,214 93 42,864 39,256 92
November .........: 20,379 21,010 103 63,243 60,266 95
December .........: 22,516 22,370 99 85,759 82,636 96
January ..........: 22,383 108,142
February .........: 20,119 128,261
March ............: 21,885 150,146
April ............: 21,851 171,997
May ..............: 21,329 193,326
June .............: 23,014 216,340
July .............: 22,776 239,116
August ...........: 21,864 260,980
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all
known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all
known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their
lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey
hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire
as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to
respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not
respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all
hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate.
Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive
the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values.
Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and
to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated
based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare
these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic
trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural
Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to
State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates
are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult
Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults.
Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August
31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period
corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be
available for slaughter during the calendar year.
States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Idaho,
Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina,
New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and
Wisconsin.
Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected
data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey
Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery
Production - Annual Summary report in April.
Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known
operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However,
estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes
in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot
be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in
the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data
for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the
"Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table.
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past
performance and is computed using the differences between first and final
estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the
first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.3 percent. This means
that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or
below the current estimate of 26.9 million eggs by more than 1.3 percent.
Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent.
Reliability of January Turkey Hatchery Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate
:square error : confidence : : : : :
: : level :------------------------------------------------------
Item : : : : : : Months
: : : : : :---------------------------
: : :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ---- number ----
:
Eggs in incubators ................: 1.3 2.3 233 5 1,221 16 8
:
Poults hatched ....................: 0.5 0.8 77 0 211 8 15
:
Net poult placements ..............: 1.5 2.5 262 11 659 8 16
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Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may
be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ...................................... (202) 720-3570
Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ............... (202) 720-4447
Aaron Cosgrove - Egg Products, Poultry Slaughter, Trout Production ...... (202) 690-3237
Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage ...................................... (202) 720-4751
Heidi Gleich - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ....................... (202) 720-0585
Tom Kruchten - Census of Aquaculture .................................... (202) 690-4870
Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs .............................................. (202) 690-8632
Sammy Neal - Catfish Production, Mink, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised .. (202) 720-3244
Joshua O'Rear - Honey ................................................... (202) 690-3676
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