Turkey Hatchery ISSN: 1949-1964 Released October 16, 2018, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Eggs in Incubators on October 1 Up 1 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on October 1, 2018, in the United States totaled 28.4 million, up 1 percent from October 1, 2017. Eggs in incubators were up 4 percent from the September 1, 2018 total of 27.4 million eggs. Poults Hatched During September Down 5 Percent from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during September 2018, in the United States totaled 22.4 million, down 5 percent from September 2017. Poults hatched were down 6 percent from the August 2018 total of 24.0 million poults. Net Poults Placed During September Up Slightly from Last Year The 20.7 million net poults placed during September 2018 in the United States were up slightly from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net poult placements were down 11 percent from the August 2018 total of 23.3 million. Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2017-2019 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun.] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Eggs in incubators :Percent of: Poults hatched :Percent of : first of month : previous : entire month : previous Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year :2017-2018 :2018-2019 : :2017-2018 :2018-2019 : : : : : : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --- 1,000 eggs -- percent 1,000 poults percent : September ........: 28,974 27,394 95 23,530 22,441 95 October ..........: 28,072 28,418 101 24,393 November .........: 28,605 23,246 December .........: 27,806 22,375 January ..........: 28,920 24,293 February .........: 28,396 22,647 March ............: 28,463 24,186 April ............: 28,232 23,482 May ..............: 28,815 23,503 June .............: 28,567 23,337 July .............: 28,561 25,727 August ...........: 29,090 23,990 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2017-2019 [Includes imports and excludes exports.] [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun.] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Total all :Percent of: Cumulative :Percent of : breeds : previous : total : previous Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year :2017-2018 :2018-2019 : :2017-2018 :2018-2019 : : : : : : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 poults percent -- 1,000 poults -- percent : September ........: 20,670 20,691 100 20,670 20,691 100 October ..........: 22,030 42,700 November .........: 21,399 64,099 December .........: 20,766 84,865 January ..........: 22,564 107,429 February .........: 21,401 128,830 March ............: 22,820 151,650 April ............: 22,214 173,864 May ..............: 22,036 195,900 June .............: 22,411 218,311 July .............: 25,648 243,959 August ...........: 23,271 267,230 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS regional field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting. Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS regional field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production - Annual Summary report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 28.4 million eggs by more than 1.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.6 percent. Reliability of October Turkey Hatchery Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate :square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------ Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :--------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ---- number ---- : Eggs in incubators ................: 1.5 2.6 298 4 1,359 20 4 : Poults hatched ....................: 0.8 1.4 150 13 577 16 8 : Net poult placements ..............: 1.8 3.1 342 44 810 7 17 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch .......................................... (202) 720-3570 Tony Dorn, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ....................... (202) 690-3223 Holly Brenize - Poultry Slaughter.............................................. (202) 720-0585 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses ....... (202) 720-4751 Liana Cuffman - Catfish and Trout, Egg Products, Mink, Census of Aquaculture .. (202) 720-8784 Fatema Haque - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ............................. (202) 720-3244 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs .................................................... (202) 690-3676 Adam Peters - Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ................................. (202) 690-3237 Erica Sadler - Cost of Pollination, Honey, Honey Bee Colonies ................. 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