Turkey Hatchery ISSN: 1949-1964 Released July 13, 2022, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Eggs in Incubators on July 1 Down 1 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on July 1, 2022 in the United States totaled 26.6 million, down 1 percent from July 1, 2021. Eggs in incubators were up 1 percent from the June 1, 2022 total of 26.3 million eggs. Poults Hatched During June Up 2 Percent from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during June 2022 in the United States totaled 22.6 million, up 2 percent from June 2021. Poults hatched were up slightly from the May 2022 total of 22.6 million poults. Net Poults Placed During June Up 4 Percent from Last Year The 21.9 million net poults placed during June 2022 in the United States were up 4 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net poult placements were up 2 percent from the May 2022 total of 21.5 million. Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2020-2022 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ :Eggs in incubators first of month: Percent of :Poults hatched entire month: Percent of Month :---------------------------------: :---------------------------: : 2020-2021 : 2021-2022 :previous year: 2020-2021 : 2021-2022 :previous year ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 eggs ----- percent --- 1,000 poults --- percent : September ........: 25,908 26,098 101 21,701 21,404 99 October ..........: 27,293 26,096 96 23,290 21,846 94 November .........: 26,764 26,498 99 22,230 22,688 102 December .........: 26,982 25,989 96 23,090 22,299 97 January ..........: 25,568 26,854 105 21,502 22,670 105 February .........: 26,157 26,675 102 20,709 21,246 103 March ............: 26,159 27,193 104 23,274 24,078 103 April ............: 27,556 27,821 101 22,597 22,222 98 May ..............: 25,428 26,600 105 20,912 22,596 108 June .............: 25,961 26,316 101 22,098 22,647 102 July .............: 26,870 26,611 99 22,939 August ...........: 27,441 23,265 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2020-2022 [Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Total all breeds : Percent of : Cumulative total : Percent of Month :---------------------------------: :---------------------------: : 2020-2021 : 2021-2022 :previous year: 2020-2021 : 2021-2022 :previous year ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ----- 1,000 poults ---- percent ---- 1,000 poults --- percent : September ........: 19,002 19,054 100 19,002 19,054 100 October ..........: 20,114 19,785 98 39,116 38,839 99 November .........: 20,113 20,685 103 59,229 59,524 100 December .........: 20,643 20,307 98 79,872 79,831 100 January ..........: 19,919 20,946 105 99,791 100,777 101 February .........: 19,008 19,400 102 118,799 120,177 101 March ............: 21,996 22,290 101 140,795 142,467 101 April ............: 21,621 20,858 96 162,416 163,325 101 May ..............: 19,707 21,460 109 182,123 184,785 101 June .............: 21,163 21,939 104 203,286 206,724 102 July .............: 22,395 225,681 August ...........: 22,009 247,690 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS regional field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries in 20 states are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting. Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS regional field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production - Annual Summary report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 2.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 26.6 million eggs by more than 2.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 4.3 percent. Reliability of July Turkey Hatchery Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate :square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------ Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :--------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ---- number ---- : Eggs in incubators ................: 2.5 4.3 506 0 1,538 12 11 : Poults hatched ....................: 2.0 3.5 315 0 1,324 17 6 : Net poult placements ..............: 2.1 3.7 313 0 1,343 16 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ..................................... (202) 692-0069 Jean Porter, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ................ (202) 690-3223 Holly Brenize - Poultry Slaughter......................................... (202) 720-0585 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses .. (202) 720-4751 Liana Cuffman - Catfish and Trout, Mink, Census of Aquaculture ........... (202) 720-8784 Fatema Haque - Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ........................... (202) 720-3244 Derron Martin - Chicken Hatchery, Egg Products............................ (202) 690-3237 Seth Riggins - Honey, Honey Bee Colonies ................................. (202) 690-4870 Autumn Stone - Layers, Eggs .............................................. (202) 690-3676 Takiyah Walker - Broiler Hatchery......................................... 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