Turkey Hatchery ISSN: 1949-1964 Released March 16, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Eggs in Incubators on March 1 Down Slightly from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on March 1, 2020 in the United States totaled 28.0 million, down slightly from March 1, 2019. Eggs in incubators were down 1 percent from the February 1, 2020 total of 28.2 million eggs. Poults Hatched During February Up Slightly from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during February 2020 in the United States totaled 22.6 million, up slightly from February 2019. Poults hatched were down 5 percent from the January 2020 total of 23.3 million poults. Net Poults Placed During February Up 1 Percent from Last Year The 20.7 million net poults placed during February 2020 in the United States were up 1 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net poult placements were down 4 percent from the January 2020 total of 21.4 million. Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2018-2020 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Eggs in incubators :Percent of: Poults hatched :Percent of : first of month : previous : entire month : previous Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year : : : : : : :2018-2019 :2019-2020 : :2018-2019 :2019-2020 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --- 1,000 eggs -- percent 1,000 poults percent : September ........: 27,532 26,780 97 22,443 22,582 101 October ..........: 28,750 29,442 102 24,295 24,904 103 November .........: 30,418 26,958 89 29,089 22,462 77 December .........: 28,492 26,619 93 23,176 22,704 98 January ..........: 27,831 28,820 104 23,287 23,879 103 February .........: 28,052 28,209 101 22,495 22,567 100 March ............: 28,049 27,979 100 23,884 April ............: 28,218 24,001 May ..............: 28,018 23,570 June .............: 27,929 22,843 July .............: 28,989 25,234 August ...........: 29,266 24,314 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2018-2020 [Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Total all :Percent of: Cumulative :Percent of : breeds : previous : total : previous Month :---------------------: year :---------------------: year : : : : : : :2018-2019 :2019-2020 : :2018-2019 :2019-2020 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 poults percent -- 1,000 poults -- percent : September ........: 20,512 19,788 96 20,512 19,788 96 October ..........: 22,377 22,094 99 42,889 41,882 98 November .........: 21,108 19,983 95 63,997 61,865 97 December .........: 19,915 20,295 102 83,912 82,160 98 January ..........: 20,817 21,414 103 104,729 103,574 99 February .........: 20,480 20,664 101 125,209 124,238 99 March ............: 21,691 146,900 April ............: 22,232 169,132 May ..............: 21,750 190,882 June .............: 21,336 212,218 July .............: 24,344 236,562 August ...........: 22,741 259,303 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS regional field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries in 20 states are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting. Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS regional field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production - Annual Summary report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 2.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 28 million eggs by more than 2.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 3.6 percent. Reliability of March Turkey Hatchery Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate :square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------ Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :--------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ---- number ---- : Eggs in incubators ................: 2.1 3.6 354 0 2,201 15 8 : Poults hatched ....................: 0.9 1.6 144 0 637 13 9 : Net poult placements ..............: 1.5 2.6 242 0 752 13 10 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ..................................... (202) 692-0069 Tony Dorn, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section .................. (202) 690-3223 Holly Brenize - Poultry Slaughter......................................... (202) 720-0585 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses .. (202) 720-4751 Liana Cuffman - Catfish and Trout, Mink, Census of Aquaculture ........... (202) 720-8784 Fatema Haque - Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ........................... (202) 690-3244 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs, Egg Products ................................. (202) 690-3676 Adam Peters - Honey, Honey Bee Colonies .................................. (202) 690-4870 Takiyah Walker - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ...................... 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