Pou 3 (9-09)
Turkey
Hatchery
Washington, D.C.
Released September 15, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on "Turkey Hatchery" call Troy Marshall at (202) 690-3237, office
hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
Eggs in Incubators on September 1 Down 7 Percent from Last Year
Turkey eggs in incubators on September 1, 2009, in the United States totaled
26.5 million, down 7 percent from September 1, 2008. Eggs in incubators were
down 7 percent from the August 1, 2009 total of 28.6 million eggs. Regional
changes from the previous year were: East North Central down 14 percent,
West North Central down 1 percent, North and South Atlantic down 19 percent,
and South Central and West up 25 percent.
Poults Hatched During August Down 8 Percent from Last Year
Turkey poults hatched during August 2009, in the United States totaled
23.3 million, down 8 percent from August 2008. Poults hatched were down
10 percent from July 2009 total of 25.8 million poults. Regional changes
from the previous year were: East North Central down 11 percent, West North
Central down 7 percent, North and South Atlantic down 8 percent, and South
Central and West down 10 percent.
Net Poults Placed During August Down 7 Percent from Last Year
The 22.5 million net poults placed during August 2009 in the United States
were down 7 percent from the number placed during the same month a year
earlier. Net placements were down 10 percent from the July 2009 total of
25.0 million.
Eggs in Incubators: First of Month by Region and United States, September 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : :Percent of:Percent of
: Sep 1 : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : Previous : Previous
Region : 2008 : 2009 1/ : 2009 : Year : Month
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------------- 1,000 ------------ --- Percent --
:
E N Central : 4,570 4,190 3,936 86 94
W N Central : 11,498 11,330 11,380 99 100
N & S Atlantic 2/ : 9,666 9,320 7,847 81 84
S Central & West 2/: 2,656 3,754 3,308 125 88
:
US : 28,390 28,594 26,471 93 93
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Revised.
2/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations.
Poults Hatched: Entire Month by Region and United States, August 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : :Percent of:Percent of
: Aug : Jul : Aug : Previous : Previous
Region : 2008 : 2009 1/ : 2009 : Year : Month
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------------- 1,000 ------------ -- Percent --
:
E N Central : 3,777 3,709 3,377 89 91
W N Central : 10,272 10,221 9,578 93 94
N & S Atlantic 2/ : 7,936 8,325 7,300 92 88
S Central & West 2/: 3,342 3,575 3,018 90 84
:
US : 25,327 25,830 23,273 92 90
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Revised.
2/ Regions combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations.
Net Poult Placements: By Month, United States, 2007-2009 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Total All : Percent : Cumulative : Percent
: Breeds : of : Total : of
Month :-------------------------:Previous :-------------------------:Previous
: 2007-08 : 2008-09 : Year : 2007-08 : 2008-09 : Year
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 ------ Percent ------- 1,000 ------ Percent
:
Sep : 24,073 22,515 94 24,073 22,515 94
Oct : 25,222 22,165 88 49,295 44,680 91
Nov : 24,755 20,702 84 74,050 65,382 88
Dec : 24,091 23,179 96 98,141 88,561 90
Jan : 26,183 24,131 92 124,324 112,692 91
Feb : 25,011 22,079 88 149,335 134,771 90
Mar : 26,394 23,817 90 175,729 158,588 90
Apr : 25,880 23,988 93 201,609 182,576 91
May : 27,084 22,975 85 228,693 205,551 90
Jun : 25,557 24,107 94 254,250 229,658 90
Jul 2/ : 26,551 24,989 94 280,801 254,647 91
Aug : 24,363 22,546 93 305,164 277,193 91
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes imports and excludes exports.
2/ Revised 2009 data only.
Regional Listing:
North Atlantic: CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT.
East North Central: IL, IN, MI, OH, WI.
West North Central: IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD.
South Atlantic: DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV.
South Central: AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, TX.
West: AK, AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, MT, NM, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY.
Reliability of Turkey Hatchery Estimates
Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all
known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of
all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update
their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All
known turkey hatcheries are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of
the month as possible and given adequate time to respond via mail, fax, or
electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not respond are contacted by
phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in
the estimate.
Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive
the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values.
Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and
to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were
estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices
prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and
historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural
Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to
State, regional, and U.S. totals. Only regional and U.S. level estimates are
published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult
Placement data includes imported poults and excludes exported poults.
Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August
31 are shown in the monthly "Turkey Hatchery" report. This time period
corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be
available for slaughter during the calendar year.
States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida,
Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected
data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly "Turkey
Hatchery" report, while annual revisions are published in the "Hatchery
Production - Annual Summary" report in May.
Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known
operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However,
estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes
in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot
be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in
the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for
consistency and reasonableness.
To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the
"Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table.
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past
performance and is computed using the differences between first and final
estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the
first day of the month over the past 24 months is 0.5 percent. This means
that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or
below the current estimate of 26.5 million eggs by more than 0.5 percent.
Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent.
Reliability of U.S. September Turkey Hatchery Estimates 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : Difference Between :Number of Months
: Root : 90 Percent : First and Latest :----------------
: Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First
Item :Square : Level :------------------------: Above : Below
: Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest:Latest : Latest
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
:Percent Percent 1,000 ------- 1,000 ------ Number
:
Eggs In :
Incubators : 0.5 0.9 240 98 0 442 8 12
:
Poults Hatched : 0.4 0.6 144 58 0 236 10 8
:
Net Poult :
Placements : 0.9 1.6 357 174 5 570 16 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Based on data for the past 24 months.
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the
National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional
information.
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch (202) 720-3570
Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section (202) 720-4447
David Colwell - Cold Storage (202) 720-8784
Chris Hawthorn - Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Trout
Production,
Census of Aquaculture, Egg Products,
Mink (202) 720-0585
Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs (202) 690-8632
Troy Marshall - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised,
Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey (202)
690-3237
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