HDR1011800301341115950900 POULTRY OUTLOOK November 15, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- POULTRY OUTLOOK, a supplement to the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Monthly report, is published five times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-P-8. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-P, $22/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Turkey Production Increasing With Strong Net Returns Returns to turkey processors are the highest since 1986, and should encourage 1996 production to rise about 4 percent from 1995. The summer heat and continuation of "spiking mortality," (an undefined disease that causes high mortality in young turkey poults) in some production areas contributed to a third-quarter production decline of 4 percent from last year. Turkey production is expected to increase about 2 percent from a year earlier in December, based on slightly fewer, but heavier birds. Both fourth quarter and annual production for 1995 should be about 3 percent above 1994. Per capita supplies of turkey will be about the same as last year for Thanksgiving. Cold storage stocks are above last year due to increased holdings of turkey parts while whole bird stocks are about the same as last year. Increased production during October and November should keep per capita supplies of whole birds near last year's level. Net returns for September-November were above 10 cents per pound even though feed price increases drove up production costs 2-3 cents a pound. Net returns for the year should be about double the 2.6 cents per pound earned in 1994. Net returns during the first three quarters of 1996 are expected to turn negative due to higher feed costs caused by lower feed grain production and lower turkey prices that will accompany increased production. Losses may average 4-6 cents per pound below breakeven before improving to near breakeven during the fourth quarter. Next years returns could be the lowest since 1983 and should limit 1997 production increases. Turkey drumstick, thigh, and wing prices have been discounted all year due to continuing weakness in the Mexican market, however breast prices have held near last years levels. For 1995, whole bird prices will average about 1 cent above 1994. Prices next year could decline 1-6 cents as production increases and export growth slows. Monthly retail turkey prices have averaged about 4 cents per pound higher than a year ago since March. Retail prices are expected to be 1-3 cents per pound higher than last year in the fourth quarter, and trend lower in 1996 as wholesale prices decline. Turkey Exports Continue To Rise Total turkey exports are estimated at 328 million pounds for 1995, 17 percent higher than the revised 280 million in 1994. The revisions resulted from adding comminuted (mechanically deboned product used for processed products) turkey products to turkey exports that previously had been carried in the "other poultry" grouping. The revisions in the turkey export estimates added 34.6 million pounds to the total in 1994 and have added 47.5 million over the first 8 months of 1995. For the historical changes see accompanying tables. Total U.S. exports of turkey, all forms Orginal estimates Year 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Jan. 5,680 9,183 11,450 11,820 13,948 Feb. 6,202 11,265 14,105 20,286 21,945 Mar. 3,929 13,942 15,674 20,379 17,242 Apr. 5,857 7,498 6,444 22,569 19,388 May 8,029 11,380 18,106 17,339 19,763 June 6,445 15,395 14,177 20,264 19,470 July 8,649 11,559 30,061 13,105 18,373 Aug. 10,050 18,383 20,331 18,663 24,643 Sept. 8,285 15,585 23,155 22,271 Oct. 13,594 15,456 20,630 20,011 Nov. 13,460 19,554 15,605 28,635 Dec. 13,264 21,412 22,568 30,448 Additions of new data 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Jan. 2,806 1,597 2,082 2,073 1,906 Feb. 1,327 1,871 1,958 2,617 1,291 Mar. 1,281 1,817 2,530 2,700 2,741 Apr. 1,205 2,225 2,191 2,034 8,920 May 951 2,453 2,333 2,445 9,905 June 1,049 2,436 2,650 1,894 5,296 July 1,078 2,423 3,050 2,595 11,531 Aug. 1,144 1,942 2,300 2,428 5,866 Sept. 1,331 2,348 3,620 1,774 Oct. 2,063 2,474 2,483 3,086 Nov. 1,897 2,833 2,617 3,966 Dec. 2,466 6,798 3,583 7,020 Revised totals 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Jan. 8,486 10,780 13,532 13,893 15,854 Feb. 7,529 13,136 16,063 22,903 23,236 Mar. 5,210 15,759 18,204 23,079 19,983 Apr. 7,062 9,723 8,635 24,603 28,308 May 8,980 13,833 20,439 19,784 29,668 June 7,494 17,831 16,827 22,158 24,766 July 9,727 13,982 33,111 15,700 29,904 Aug. 11,194 20,325 22,631 21,091 30,509 Sept. 9,616 17,933 26,775 24,045 Oct. 15,657 17,930 23,113 23,097 Nov. 15,357 22,387 18,222 32,601 Dec. 15,730 28,210 26,151 37,468 Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Over the first 8 months of 1995, exports of comminuted turkey totaled 47.5 million pounds, up more than 150 percent from a year earlier. The expansion came almost exclusively from increased shipments to Russia, that more than offset falling shipments to Mexico, traditionally the largest export market. In 1991, exports of comminuted turkey products to Russia were zero and by 1994 had only grown to 720,000 pounds. However, 1995 exports through August totaled 33.6 million pounds. Most of the 3.5 million pounds exported to Estonia could also be considered part of the expanded shipments to Russia. The bulk of the shipments have come in an export trade category defined as "Other prepared or preserved meat, meat offal or blood: of turkey." The average export value of these products going to Russia is less than 40 cents a pound. Therefore, it is assumed that the shipments are some type of ground or processed turkey product. Turkey exports are expected to continue rising in 1996, as U.S. turkey prices decline. However, the rate of expansion is expected to slow, due to strong competition in the Russian market from other meat and poultry products. Total U.S. turkey exports are forecast to reach 345 million pounds in 1996, 5 percent higher than this year. Uncertainty about the Mexican economy is holding down potential export growth next year. Any expansion in Mexico's economy could enhance U.S. turkey exports, as Mexico is still the largest market, accounting for 40 percent of 1995 exports through August. Although U.S. turkey exports to Mexico have declined this year, the tonnage reduction has been moderated by shifting purchases to lower valued products. Strong Net Returns To Boost Broiler Production Strong net returns to broiler processors this summer have encouraged higher egg sets in September and October. These egg sets are translating into higher chick placements during October and November and strong production increases from late November into early 1996. Production in December could rise the most since August, as egg sets in the 15 weekly survey States showed the highest increases of the year during September, averaging between 5 and 6 percent above 1994. Chick placements in those States during October averaged between 4 and 5 percent higher than last year. Production in 1995 is expected to be about 5 percent above last year. The strong net returns during the second half of 1995 are expected to bring about a 6-percent increase in production for 1996. Increases in bird weights and the size of the hatching flock over the next 6 months will be necessary to achieve the projected 1996 production growth. The hatching flock on October 1 was only 3 percent larger than last year, and cumulative potential pullet placements, an indicator of the hatching egg production flock in the future, rose only 1-2 percent through April 1996. Changes in culling and molting rates can alter the flock size from the potential placement indicators. Less culling and more molting will allow hens to stay in the flock longer than normal and can increase the flock size beyond what pullet placements would indicate. Hatching egg utilization rates can also be adjusted to allow higher chick placements than would be indicated by increases in the hatching egg flock. Each of these strategies can lower hatching egg quality, so there is a tradeoff. Processor net returns averaged above 10 cents per pound from July through November. Increased corn and soybean prices and seasonal decreases in broiler prices began to reduce net returns in the fall. Returns will be well below 10 cents per pound by December and will continue under pressure in 1996. Net returns are expected to be near breakeven in the first and fourth quarter of 1996, and 1-2 cents per pound above breakeven during the second and third quarters. Net returns are expected to average 1 to 2 cents per pound in 1996, down from 1995's 7 to 8 cents per pound. Net returns for 1996 will probably approach the point where production increases would be scaled back, causing reductions in the 1996 production forecast. Seasonally lower hatching egg production during the summer months and lower hatchability due to heat stress during July and August meant lower than expected numbers of birds available for slaughter in October and early November. Smaller increases in slaughter numbers drove wholesale prices for whole broilers about 10 cents per pound above last year in early November. The annual average price for 1995 is expected to be about unchanged from 1994. Increased production in 1996 and larger total meat supplies should bring wholesale prices 2-5 cents lower as exports are expected to grow less than during the last 3 years. Exports are equal to about 15 percent of production in 1995 and without them 12-13 more pounds of chicken per capita would be available for the domestic retail market. The retail composite price for broilers is expected to be 1-2 cents per pound above last year in the fourth quarter, but average 2-3 cents lower for 1995. Retail prices are expected to be another 2-3 cents lower in 1996, reflecting lower wholesale prices. Broiler Stocks Increasing Total broiler stocks held in cold storage warehouses as reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Cold Storage report, have trended upward since 1960. The rate of increase grew starting in the mid-1980's, and stocks about doubled from 1990 to 1995. During the 1960's, 1970's, and early 1980's, cold storage stocks were declining as a percent of production (from 1.8 percent to 1 percent). Generally, broiler marketers were able to deliver increasing amounts of quick-chilled or blast-frozen product directly to retailers and distributors. During the 1990's, stocks have been increasing both in absolute terms and as a percentage of production. One possible explanation is the large increase in exports in recent years and the need to consolidate larger inventories prior to shipment. Stocks have averaged less than 20 percent of exports since 1989, with 1994 and projections for 1995 at 12.5 percent. It appears that cold storage warehouses may be staging areas for export shipments and stock increases are tied to increases in exports. Broiler legs and leg quarters are the primary export product and have become an increasing portion of stocks. Stocks for broilers are reported in two categories, whole broilers and other chicken. The other chicken category is made up primarily of broiler parts. Other chicken made up about half of all broiler stocks in the 1960's, and has increased to about 90 percent of stocks since 1993. Larger stocks do not appear to be a problem for the broiler industry at this point. Stocks have been record large during 1995 while whole bird prices have remained about the same as in 1994 and higher than the rest of the 1990's. Leg and leg quarter prices have also held at the highest levels of the 1990's. Broiler Exports Continue Strong Data for the first 8 months of 1995 show broiler exports at 2.4 billion pounds, 43 percent above a year ago. Leg quarter prices are showing continued strength in September and October, indicating export sales are still strong and leading to a higher total broiler export estimate of 3.8 billion pounds, up almost 1 billion from 1994. Broiler leg quarters are the principal export product and are especially important in the Russian market. Given current forecasts for future expansion in the economies of Russia and China, the two largest broiler export markets, broiler exports for 1996 are forecast at 4.0 billion pounds. The strong exports forecast for these two markets are also based on the outlook for grain production in these countries. Poultry production in Russia is not expected to grow significantly in the coming year and most grain production will be in wheat, not the corn and soybeans needed for more efficient broiler rations. China's poultry industry is expanding, but China's changeover from a net grain exporter to a net grain importer will affect its cost competitiveness. Broiler shipments to Russia and China could exceed 2.4 billion pounds this year. Through August 1995, exports to the two markets represented 65 percent of the total U.S. broiler export market. In addition, there were 80 million pounds of broilers exported to Finland and Estonia, most of which were then shipped to Russia. The rapid growth of exports to Russia and China has overshadowed strong expansion in a number of other countries. While broiler exports to Canada and Mexico are below last year, exports to Caribbean and South American countries are higher. Other important markets, such as Japan, Korea, the Middle East, and South Africa, all have shown considerable growth in 1995. Egg Production Lower The table egg production flock is expected to remain 2 percent smaller than last year through December. Flock productivity has remained nearly unchanged this year as higher molting rates kept the flock age high. The molting rate has remained high due to problems of scheduling spent hens for slaughter and to keep flock size up after summer death losses. Production for 1995 will be fractionally below last year. Improved net returns should encourage increased hatch and increases in flock size for 1996. The smaller production flock will carry over into 1996, but a return to this years production levels is expected by spring 1996. An increase in flock size later in the year will offset early year production decreases, with about 1 percent more eggs expected to be produced in 1996. Eggs used for breaking are projected to be about 3 percent greater than in 1994. Breaking eggs are used to produce liquid eggs for food processors and the food service industry. They are also used to produce whole egg substitutes containing less fat and cholesterol. Net returns to producers were above 10 cents per dozen in September and October and are expected to remain there for the rest of 1995 even as production costs have increased 5-6 cents per dozen since the first of the year. Wholesale and retail prices have been about 10 cents per dozen above last year since September and are expected to continue to be higher through the end of 1995. Lower prices and higher costs in 1996 are expected to bring negative net returns, which are likely to slow production increases late in 1996 or early in 1997 and possibly trigger reduced production in 1997. Egg Export Forecast Shows Slow Growth U.S. egg exports are forecast at 193 million dozen in 1966, up 2 percent from a year earlier. The increase is expected to come from continued expansion in exports of egg products, especially to the three largest markets; Japan, Canada, and Mexico. This growth is expected to offset declines in shell egg exports. Following a rise of 12 percent in the first half of 1995, egg exports declined in July and August due to higher prices. Total exports for 1995 are now estimated at 190 million dozen, slightly higher than 1994. Shell egg exports through August totaled 65 million dozen, down 7 percent, while exports of egg products were up 22 percent. Selected price statistics for poultry and --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 Oct-95 Nov-95/* --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Poultry prices: Farm - liveweight Cents per dozen All Eggs 57.80 60.90 63.60 66.60 66.50 70.00 Cents per pound Broiler 32.80 34.50 37.00 38.10 36.30 37.00 Turkey 39.30 39.80 41.80 43.70 45.30 46.00 Wholesale Broilers 12-city avg, RTC 55.88 58.76 61.74 61.48 58.79 61.00 Georgia dock 53.51 55.46 58.62 60.00 57.80 59.00 Northeast Breast, bnless 181.15 195.10 202.11 195.76 173.71 174.00 Breast, Ribs on 90.41 98.36 102.63 92.47 83.48 87.00 Legs, whole 50.04 50.24 53.35 55.92 55.82 57.00 Leg quarters 33.42 35.48 39.37 41.15 41.86 43.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 64.91 66.73 69.93 73.10 76.01 78.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 62.76 64.78 68.54 72.92 76.73 79.00 Breast 4-8 lb. 96.10 101.14 106.17 110.00 107.63 113.00 Drumsticks 19.95 17.94 22.51 29.77 28.00 29.00 Wings, full cut 24.23 24.09 25.16 30.49 31.76 32.00 Eggs, grade A, large Cents per dozen 12 city metro 65.45 75.49 77.19 80.56 79.78 86.00 New York 64.78 75.60 72.80 77.05 79.40 86.00 Price to retailer U.S. average Cents per dozen Eggs 63.45 73.49 75.19 78.56 77.78 84.00 Cents per pound Broiler 63.88 66.76 69.80 69.48 66.79 69.00 Turkey 72.49 74.18 77.50 81.60 85.00 87.00 Retail price U.S. average Broiler Cents per pound Composite 142.20 140.90 141.80 147.00 144.00 146.00 Whole, fresh 90.80 91.90 90.80 93.90 93.00 95.00 Breast, bone-in 197.90 194.60 194.70 201.70 197.00 198.00 Legs, bone-in 113.40 113.00 115.00 119.50 118.00 117.00 Whole turkey, frz 105.30 105.00 106.00 108.60 110.00 102.00 Cents per dozen Eggs, grade A, lrg 82.50 87.90 98.40 95.60 94.00 94.00 Price indexes: 1982-84 = 100 All poultry 142.90 142.50 142.80 145.90 143.00 145.00 Chicken, whole fresh 141.70 142.70 140.80 145.10 143.00 144.00 Parts, frsh and frz 145.00 143.90 145.30 148.00 146.00 148.00 Other poultry 143.50 142.60 143.80 145.90 143.00 145.00 Eggs 109.60 114.50 125.80 122.70 122.00 122.00 Retail-to-consumer sprea Cents per pound Broiler, whole 26.92 25.14 21.06 24.42 26.00 26.00 Turkey, whole 32.81 30.82 28.23 27.00 25.00 25.00 Cents per dozen Eggs 19.05 14.41 23.21 17.04 17.00 14.00 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Selected hatch, slaughter, and production statistic --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 Oct-95 Nov-95/* --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hatchery operations: Eggs in incubators - First of the month Thousand Broiler 562,055 555,608 558,473 553,831 537,802 514,000 Turkey 38,145 38,908 35,506 31,195 32,034 32,000 Egg-type 30,334 26,644 26,566 30,321 29,632 28,000 Hatch Broiler chicks 669,390 672,822 672,608 634,272 650,000 620,000 Egg-type chicks 33,392 28,682 30,399 32,112 33,000 26,000 Placements Turkey poults 29,916 29,079 26,563 23,107 24,000 25,000 Broiler breeders 6,178 6,302 6,464 6,288 6,300 6,400 Egg-type breeders 234 235 163 292 280 250 Layers: In production Thousand Table egg 235,940 234,039 234,179 236,017 238,000 240,000 Hatching egg 51,815 51,431 51,538 51,972 52,000 52,000 All 287,744 285,470 285,717 287,989 290,000 292,000 Percent Being molted, first of 6.0 4.9 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.0 Molt complete 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.1 23.2 23.0 Thousands Light hen slaughter 8,890 7,037 8,238 7,212 7,600 7,000 Heavy hen slaughter 5,456 4,874 4,283 4,815 5,900 5,000 Eggs per 100 layers, first of the month Number Table egg 71.3 71.3 71.1 71.4 71.2 72.0 Hatching egg 60.8 61.4 59.6 59.6 59.7 59.5 All 69.4 69.5 69.0 69.2 69.1 70.0 Egg production Million dozen Table egg 421 431 431 421 438 431 Hatching egg 79 81 80 77 80 77 All 500 511 511 498 518 508 Eggs for breaking 136 114 131 114 121 122 Egg products produced Thousand pounds Liquid 85,759 71,618 80,823 80,389 81,000 80,000 Frozen 37,251 28,235 35,318 31,372 32,000 31,000 Dried 12,174 9,585 10,129 8,581 10,000 12,000 Federally inspected slaughter: Head Thousands Broiler 664,472 582,817 665,681 606,084 640,000 590,000 Turkey 25,864 22,927 26,226 24,174 25,500 26,000 Average liveweight Pounds Broiler 4.64 4.54 4.48 4.64 4.70 4.75 Turkey 23.60 22.78 21.88 22.19 22.60 22.50 Production Total liveweight Million pounds Broiler 3,086 2,648 2,985 2,810 3,000 2,800 Turkey 611 522 574 536 575 585 Certified ready to cook (RTC) Broiler 2,230 1,937 2,181 2,050 2,200 2,025 Turkey 482 413 451 423 435 475 Mature chicken 45 38 38 38 42 39 Beginning cold storage stocks: Total chicken 526 537 515 499 473 450 Total turkey 553 619 673 678 676 650 Eggs, frozen 18 23 21 18 16 13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /* Preliminary U.S. poultry and egg exports to major importers ----------------------------------------------------- January - August -------------------------- Percent Country 1994 1995 Change ----------------------------------------------------- Broilers 1,000 pounds, RTC weight Russia 435,662 891,041 105 Hong Kong 414,583 647,147 56 Japan 154,249 162,249 5 Mexico 141,974 129,755 (9) Estonia 727 64,857 8,821 Poland 96,070 61,151 (36) China 38,917 54,502 40 Canada 49,975 48,482 (3) Jamaica 30,983 35,313 14 Singapore 44,206 32,715 (26) South Africa 7,152 26,178 266 Saudi Arabia 18,909 25,885 37 Finland 12,351 16,284 32 Other 264,532 243,427 (8) Total 1,710,290 2,438,986 43 Turkeys 1,000 pounds, RTC weight Mexico 100,510 80,224 (20) Russia 11,715 43,948 275 Korea 15,056 25,199 67 Hong Kong 4,279 12,134 184 Estonia 4,896 NA South Africa 326 4,034 1,137 Poland 13,563 3,902 (71) United Kingdom 3,140 3,356 7 Canada 3,513 2,835 (19) Germany 1,138 2,023 78 Other 9,972 19,677 97 Total 163,212 202,228 24 Other chicken 1,000 pounds, RTC weight Hong Kong 14,387 18,238 27 Canada 12,021 10,134 (16) Japan 15,253 7,203 (53) Surinam 1,016 5,163 408 United Arab E. 1,515 2,187 44 Russia 263 2,013 665 Poland 2,909 1,897 (35) Other 10,063 11,677 16 Total 57,427 58,512 2 Shell eggs and egg products 1/ 1,000 dozen Japan 28,393 36,229 28 Hong Kong 29,840 27,362 (8) Canada 21,613 20,223 (6) Mexico 11,536 9,116 (21) U. Arab Emirate 7,469 7,007 (6) Colombia 609 2,251 270 Jamaica 2,115 1,935 (9) Nicaragua 1,175 1,925 64 Germany 3,103 1,542 (50) Yemen 1,335 NA Brazil 22 1,375 6,150 Kuwait 2,271 1,285 (43) Other 10,728 12,758 19 Poultry and eggs costs and returns 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- Production Wholesale costs ------------------------- ---------------------------- Total Price Net Year Feed Total costs 2/ 3/ returns --------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Eggs 1993: (cents/dozen) I 25.9 44.1 64.6 78.8 14.1 II 26.6 44.8 65.3 74.7 9.4 III 28.1 46.3 66.8 72.0 5.2 IV 28.8 47.0 67.5 74.9 7.4 Year 27.4 45.6 66.1 75.1 9.0 1994: I 31.9 50.1 70.6 75.5 4.9 II 30.2 48.4 68.9 65.6 -3.4 III 27.9 46.1 66.6 70.6 4.0 IV 25.3 43.5 64.0 72.8 8.8 Year 28.8 47.0 67.5 71.1 3.7 1995: I 26.0 44.2 64.7 72.4 7.7 II 27.4 45.6 66.1 66.7 0.6 III 29.4 47.6 68.1 77.7 9.6 Broilers 1993: (cents/lb) I 15.4 25.8 48.0 53.1 5.1 II 15.5 25.8 48.1 55.8 7.7 III 16.2 26.6 49.1 56.9 7.9 IV 16.5 26.8 49.4 54.9 5.6 Year 15.9 26.2 48.6 55.2 6.6 1994: I 17.8 28.1 51.1 55.2 4.1 II 17.4 27.7 50.6 60.0 9.4 III 16.7 27.1 49.7 55.9 6.2 IV 15.2 25.6 47.8 51.8 4.1 Year 16.8 27.1 49.8 55.7 6.0 1995: I 15.0 25.3 47.4 51.7 4.3 II 15.5 25.8 48.1 53.5 5.5 III 16.3 26.7 49.2 60.7 11.5 Turkeys 1993: (cents/lb) I 21.2 34.9 59.9 57.3 -2.6 II 21.4 35.1 60.2 60.3 0.1 III 22.1 35.8 61.0 64.7 3.7 IV 23.8 37.5 63.1 69.3 6.1 Year 22.2 35.9 61.1 63.2 2.1 1994: I 24.6 38.3 64.2 59.4 -4.8 II 25.3 39.0 65.0 63.4 -1.6 III 24.2 37.9 63.7 68.1 4.4 IV 21.6 35.3 60.5 71.6 11.1 Year 23.9 37.6 63.3 65.9 2.6 1995: I 20.4 34.1 59.0 59.4 0.4 II 21.1 34.8 59.8 61.6 1.8 III 22.2 35.9 61.2 68.9 7.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimated costs and prices are weighted by monthly production. 2/ Based on farm cost converted to wholesale market value. 3/ Wholesale prices used are the 12-metro egg price, 12-city weighted average broiler price, and a weighted average of 8-16 lb young hens and 14-22 lb toms in Central, Western and Eastern Regions. Poultry supply, carcass weight 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- Production ---------------------- Begin- Year Federal Other ning Im- Total Inspected stocks ports supply ---------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Broilers: 1993 22,178 36 22,015 368 22,383 1994 I 5,667 9 5,624 358 5,982 II 5,984 9 5,939 374 6,313 III 6,167 10 6,120 400 6,520 IV 6,029 10 5,983 420 6,403 Year 23,847 38 23,666 358 25,218 1995 I 6,147 10 6,100 458 6,559 II 6,356 10 6,308 487 6,794 III 6,168 10 6,121 528 6,649 IV 2/ 6,350 10 6,302 464 6,766 Year 2/ 25,021 40 24,831 458 26,768 1996 I 2/ 6,500 10 6,451 475 6,926 II 2/ 6,700 11 6,649 500 7,149 III 2/ 6,750 11 6,699 510 7,209 Year 2/ 26,650 42 26,449 475 26,924 Other chicke 1993 513 3 515 10 525 1994 I 126 1 126 8 134 II 134 1 134 5 140 III 125 1 125 10 135 IV 123 1 123 16 139 Year 508 4 508 8 516 1995 I 128 1 128 14 142 II 133 1 133 6 139 III 115 1 115 10 125 IV 2/ 120 1 120 9 129 Year 2/ 496 4 496 14 510 1996 I 2/ 125 1 125 10 135 II 2/ 135 1 135 10 145 III 2/ 125 1 125 15 140 Year 2/ 510 3 510 10 520 Turkey: 1993 4,848 9 4,798 272 5,069 1994 I 1,091 1 1,079 249 1,328 II 1,254 2 1,240 347 1,587 III 1,337 2 1,322 539 1,861 IV 1,310 2 1,296 649 1,945 Year 4,992 7 4,937 249 5,186 1995 I 1,196 2 1,183 254 1,437 II 1,297 2 1,283 444 1,728 III 1,287 2 1,273 619 1,892 IV 2/ 1,350 2 1,335 676 2,012 Year 2/ 5,130 8 5,074 254 5,328 1996 I 2/ 1,225 2 1,212 275 1,487 II 2/ 1,325 2 1,310 400 1,710 III 2/ 1,400 2 1,385 600 1,985 Year 2/ 5,350 7 5,291 275 5,566 Total poultry: 1993 27,539 48 27,328 650 27,977 1994 I 6,883 11 6,829 615 7,444 II 7,372 12 7,314 726 8,040 III 7,629 12 7,568 949 8,517 IV 7,462 12 7,402 1,085 8,487 Year 29,346 47 29,113 615 29,728 1995 I 7,470 12 7,411 727 8,138 II 7,786 12 7,724 937 8,661 III 7,570 12 7,509 1,156 8,665 IV 2/ 7,820 12 7,758 1,149 8,907 Year 2/ 30,646 48 30,402 727 31,129 1996 I 2/ 7,850 13 7,787 760 8,547 II 2/ 8,160 13 8,095 910 9,005 III 2/ 8,275 13 8,209 1,125 9,334 Year 2/ 32,510 52 32,250 760 33,010 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Poultry utilization, carcass and retail weight 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- Per capita Total Consumption Year Ex- Ending disap- Carcass Retail ports stocks pearance weight weight ---------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Pounds Broilers: 1993 1,966 358 20,059 77.7 68.5 1994 I 571 374 5,036 19.4 17.1 II 698 400 5,215 20.0 17.6 III 694 420 5,407 20.7 18.2 IV 912 458 5,032 19.2 16.9 Year 2,875 458 20,690 79.3 69.8 1995 I 873 487 5,199 19.8 17.5 II 856 528 5,411 20.6 18.1 III 1,050 464 5,135 19.5 17.2 IV 2/ 1,005 475 5,286 20.0 17.6 Year 2/ 3,784 475 21,031 79.9 70.4 1996 I 2/ 950 500 5,476 20.7 18.2 II 2/ 990 510 5,649 21.3 18.8 III 2/ 1,015 520 5,674 21.3 18.8 Year 2/ 4,015 530 22,379 84.3 74.2 Other chicke 1993 56 8 461 1.8 1.8 1994 I 17 5 112 0.4 0.4 II 23 10 107 0.4 0.4 III 27 16 92 0.4 0.4 IV 23 14 102 0.4 0.4 Year 90 14 413 1.6 1.6 1995 I 20 6 116 0.4 0.4 II 23 10 107 0.4 0.4 III 24 9 92 0.3 0.3 IV 2/ 26 10 93 0.4 0.4 Year 2/ 93 10 408 1.5 1.5 1996 I 2/ 20 10 105 0.4 0.4 II 2/ 23 15 107 0.4 0.4 III 2/ 27 15 98 0.4 0.4 Year 2/ 94 10 416 1.6 1.6 Turkey: 1993 212 249 4,608 17.9 17.9 1994 I 60 347 921 3.5 3.5 II 67 539 981 3.8 3.8 III 61 649 1,152 4.4 4.4 IV 93 254 1,597 6.1 6.1 Year 281 254 4,651 17.8 17.8 1995 I 59 444 934 3.6 3.6 II 83 619 1,026 3.9 3.9 III 89 676 1,126 4.3 4.3 IV 2/ 97 275 1,640 6.2 6.2 Year 2/ 328 275 4,726 18.0 18.0 1996 I 2/ 64 400 1,023 3.9 3.9 II 2/ 88 600 1,022 3.9 3.9 III 2/ 92 750 1,143 4.3 4.3 Year 2/ 345 300 4,921 18.5 18.5 Total poultry: 1993 2,234 615 25,128 97.4 88.1 1994 I 648 726 6,070 23.4 21.1 II 788 949 6,303 24.2 21.8 III 782 1,085 6,650 25.5 23.0 IV 1,029 727 6,731 25.7 23.4 Year 3,247 727 25,754 98.8 89.3 1995 I 952 937 6,248 23.8 21.5 II 961 1,156 6,544 24.9 22.5 III 1,163 1,149 6,353 24.1 21.8 IV 2/ 1,128 760 7,019 26.6 24.2 Year 2/ 4,204 760 26,164 99.4 90.0 1996 I 2/ 1,034 910 6,603 25.0 22.5 II 2/ 1,101 1,125 6,779 25.6 23.0 III 2/ 1,134 1,285 6,915 26.0 23.5 Year 2/ 4,454 840 27,716 104.4 94.3 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Egg supply 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- Production Beginning Breaking Imports Total Year stocks egg use supply --------------------------------------------------------------------- Million dozen Total egg 1994 I 1,508.7 10.7 --- 1.0 1,520.4 II 1,521.2 12.1 --- 1.1 1,534.5 III 1,550.2 11.9 --- 1.0 1,563.1 IV 1,596.8 13.8 --- 0.6 1,611.2 Year 6,176.6 10.7 --- 3.7 6,191.0 1995 I 1,545.2 14.9 --- 1.1 1,561.2 II 1,534.5 14.2 --- 1.2 1,550.0 III 3/ 1,519.8 17.6 --- 1.0 1,538.4 IV 3/ 1,580.0 12.9 --- 1.0 1,593.9 Year 6,179.5 14.9 --- 4.3 6,198.7 1996 I 3/ 1,555.0 12.0 --- 1.0 1,568.0 II 3/ 1,565.0 12.0 --- 1.0 1,578.0 III 3/ 1,575.0 12.0 1.0 1,588.0 Year 6,320.0 12.0 --- 4.0 6,336.0 Shell egg 1994 I 1,508.7 0.3 319.8 0.7 1,189.8 II 1,521.2 0.3 355.6 0.8 1,166.6 III 1,550.2 0.2 362.5 0.7 1,188.6 IV 1,596.8 0.3 364.7 0.5 1,232.8 Year 6,176.8 0.3 1,402.7 2.6 4,777.0 1995 I 1,545.2 0.1 355.8 0.7 1,190.2 II 1,534.5 0.2 362.5 1.0 1,173.2 III 1,519.8 0.2 358.9 1.0 1,162.1 Year 6,210.0 0.1 1,495.8 3.0 4,717.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding 2/ Shell eggs and approximate shell-egg equivalent of egg products 3/ Forecast Egg utilization 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- Exports Hatching Ending Consumption Year 2/ egg use stocks Total Per capita --------------------------------------------------------------------- Million dozen Number Total egg 1994 I 40.2 195.3 12.1 1,272.7 58.8 II 45.5 205.3 11.9 1,271.7 58.6 III 49.3 202.8 13.8 1,297.3 59.6 IV 52.6 199.6 14.9 1,344.1 61.6 Year 187.6 803.0 14.9 5,185.5 238.7 1995 I 45.5 206.2 14.2 1,295.2 59.3 II 50.1 213.4 17.6 1,268.9 58.0 III 3/ 45.5 211.9 12.9 1,268.1 57.8 IV 3/ 49.0 205.0 12.0 1,327.9 60.4 Year 190.1 836.5 12.0 5,160.1 235.4 1996 I 3/ 42.0 215.0 12.0 1,299.0 58.9 II 3/ 49.0 225.0 12.0 1,292.0 58.5 III 3/ 52.0 215.0 12.0 1,309.0 59.1 Year 193.0 870.0 12.0 5,261.0 237.7 Shell egg 1994 I 21.1 195.3 0.3 973.2 45.0 II 29.0 205.3 0.2 932.0 43.0 III 30.6 202.8 0.3 955.0 43.9 IV 29.7 199.6 0.1 1,003.4 46.0 Year 110.4 803.0 0.1 3,863.5 177.9 1995 I 23.8 206.2 0.2 960.0 43.9 II 25.4 213.4 0.2 934.2 42.6 III 25.0 211.9 0.7 924.5 42.1 Year 114.0 834.6 0.1 3,768.6 171.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding 2/ Shell eggs and approximate shell-egg equivalent of egg products 3/ Forecast Turkey exports for trade codes 1602310020 and 1602310040 Country 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Kilos. Kilos. Kilos. Kilos. Kilos. Russia 0 5,117 124,663 326,234 15,223,692 Mexico 5,907,451 11,988,894 12,212,968 13,064,740 2,883,606 Estonia 0 0 0 0 1,594,094 Poland 0 0 0 694,608 928,549 Canada 1,434,109 1,021,340 772,703 519,988 292,851 Romania 0 0 0 9,843 188,717 Germany 3,503 0 9,828 46,976 52,675 Japan 74,082 218,165 19,111 89,428 48,008 Saudi Arabia 226,554 123,106 201,229 41,859 38,178 Colombia 5,152 20,025 18,555 80,067 37,253 Netherland Antilles 42,537 123,265 78,518 45,038 26,855 Korea 78,921 64,209 138,315 419,633 23,571 Guatemala 0 0 0 3,735 22,773 Belize 18,277 30,164 33,141 37,607 21,802 El Salvador 0 0 0 22,054 19,204 Malaysia 56,420 7,950 1,472 0 17,187 Brazil 0 0 597 0 14,242 Bahamas 29,324 11,526 0 27,914 12,885 New Zealand 72,750 15,944 27,261 11,320 10,669 Hong Kong 138,582 269,724 123,282 70,995 10,597 Other 409,370 260,601 480,037 211,688 58,422 U.S. total 8,497,032 14,160,030 14,241,680 15,723,727 21,525,830 Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 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