POULTRY OUTLOOK May 16, 1995
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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POULTRY OUTLOOK, a supplement to the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Monthly
report, is published five times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-P-6.
Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-
NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-P,
$22/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and
poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year.
ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa.
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Growth in Poultry Sector To Continue
Higher production of broilers, turkeys, and eggs is pressuring wholesale
prices this year. However, net returns have been near breakeven to
positive as lower prices have been offset by lower feed costs. Returns are
expected to remain modest as feed cost increases offset seasonally rising
poultry prices during the remainder of 1995.
Poultry production increases are projected to continue in 1996, and prices
are projected 1-2 cents lower. Lower prices and higher projected feed
costs will pressure producers' returns.
Broiler Production Increasing
Production increases continue for broilers. Production during the first
quarter of 1995 was up 8 percent and a 7-percent increase is projected for
the second quarter. Production increases are expected to moderate in the
second half of the year with a 6- to 7-percent increase expected for 1995.
Broiler weights continue about unchanged from last year. Weight
increases of 1-2 percent per year have been common over the last 20
years. Increased incidence of respiratory diseases may be a factor in
holding weights down. Respiratory diseases typically become less of a
factor as temperatures warm in production areas at this time of year.
Birds condemned for airsacculitis, (typically caused by respiratory
diseases), were more than 40 percent higher in February and March 1995
than in 1994, and 19 percent higher in January. Airsacculitis
condemnations in first quarter 1995 were also about 20 percent higher than
in 1993. Overall condemnations were up 14, 22, and 27 percent in
January, February and March, respectively, but made up less than 1
percent of slaughter.
Respiratory diseases may also have affected the broiler hatching egg
flock. Some reduction in flock growth rate had been taking place since last
fall when the flock was 13 percent larger than the previous year. By April
the flock was only 4 percent larger than in 1994.
If the smaller rate of increase in the broiler hatching egg flock and the flat
bird weights at slaughter continue, broiler production increases for the
second half of 1995 could be lower than currently projected. If the
reductions in weight and flock size were due to respiratory diseases, they
should not be much of a factor after midsummer.
Wholesale broiler prices are projected to be about 3 cents per pound lower
in 1995 than in 1994 and about 2 cents lower in 1996 than in 1995. Retail
broiler prices are expected to fall slightly less than wholesale prices as
retail margins widen.
Broiler production in 1996 is expected to increase about 6 percent, which is
near the average increase for the last ten years. Projections of slightly
lower net returns during 1995 and the expectation of higher feed costs
during 1996 should hold production increases below those of 1994 and
those expected for 1995. Supply increases will continue to pressure
wholesale and retail meat prices.
Turkey Consumption To Increase
Per capita consumption of turkey has been flat at about 18 pounds since
1990. For 1995, an increase of about half a pound is projected, and
another 1-pound increase appears likely for 1996. These are the largest
increases since the late 1980's. Larger production and slower export
growth are contributing to lower prices that will boost domestic use.
Strong net returns in the second half of 1994 contributed to a 9-percent
increase in first-quarter 1995 production. Production for the rest of the
year is expected to moderate, with an annual increase near 6 percent.
This would be the largest production rise since 1990. Bird numbers and
average weights are each expected to be up about 3 percent. Continuation
of stronger returns in early 1995, about 5 cents per pound higher in the
first quarter than in 1994, are expected to boost production 5-6 percent in
1996.
Returns in the second half of 1995 are expected to drop below 1994 as
feed costs increase, but returns for the year should remain above
breakeven and nearly unchanged from 1994. Feed costs in 1996 are
expected to be higher than 1995, which will pressure net returns. How
rapidly producers respond to the lower returns will determine production for
late 1996 and into 1997. Expectations are that production increases will
not be significantly affected until 1997. The lower poult placements
reported for April are not expected to continue into later months.
Larger turkey meat supplies, combined with more red meat and broilers,
are expected to pressure wholesale and retail prices for whole birds. For
1995, wholesale prices are expected to be about 3 cents per pound lower
than in 1994. The largest price differences will be in the fourth quarter, as
large cold storage stocks limit wholesale price increases that typically are
seen during the holidays late in the year. Retail prices are projected about
2 cents lower as spreads widen a little at the retail level. For 1996
wholesale and retail prices are projected to be about 2 cents lower.
Egg Production Increasing Slowly
During the first quarter of 1995, table egg production increased nearly 2
percent. Low egg-type hatch rates early in 1995 and increased fowl
slaughter relative to the last half of 1994 will keep second-half production
about unchanged from a year ago. Annual production is expected to be up
about 1 percent for 1995, and net returns will be nearly unchanged from
1994. This should encourage continued slow production increases into
1996.
Table egg production is expected to increase 1-2 percent in 1996 while
hatching egg production will increase 4-5 percent. Continued growth in the
broiler sector is driving the increase in hatching egg production.
Wholesale egg prices were 6 cents per dozen lower in the first quarter than
in 1994. Increased production contributed to the price decrease, but part
of the decline was due to Easter falling in mid-April, 2 weeks later than last
year. Smaller price differences are expected for the rest of the year as
production increases moderate. For the year, prices are expected to fall
about 2 cents below 1994, while 1996 will see prices declining about 1
cent per dozen from 1995.
Retail egg prices are expected to be about 1 cent lower in 1995, allowing
for a wider retail margin. In 1996 retail prices are expected to parallel
wholesale prices and decline by about 1 cent per dozen.
Broiler Exports Continue Higher
Russia and Hong Kong have become the two largest markets for U.S.
broiler meat. Continued strength in these markets is expected to push
1996 exports to 3.7 billion pounds.
A slowly growing economy in Russia and the other countries of the former
Soviet Union (FSU) and expected lower U.S. broiler prices should support
higher exports for a number of years as these countries slowly rebuild their
poultry industry.
With the world's largest population and strong increases forecast for
personal income, China is expected to continue to grow as a market for
U.S. broilers. Much of the growth in U.S. exports to China so far has been
reported as higher exports to Hong Kong. It is assumed that a large
percentage of these products are being transshipped to various Chinese
cities. Even though China's domestic poultry industry is forecast to
expand, strong economic growth is expected to result in higher poultry
demand and larger imports.
U.S. broiler export forecasts for 1995 have been increased to 3.4 billion
pounds, 18 percent higher than in 1994. The forecasts reflect continuing
strong exports to Russia and Hong Kong, which are forecast to exceed 500
million pounds for first-quarter 1995. For all of 1995, these countries will
account for 60 to 65 percent of U.S. broiler exports.
Almost all the growth in broiler exports has been in broiler parts as sales of
whole broilers are about the same as in 1994. Exports of whole broilers to
many countries have fallen, but they have been counterbalanced by a large
increase in exports to Saudi Arabia.
Growth in Turkey Exports Seen for Coming Year
U.S. turkey exports are forecast to reach 258 million pounds in 1996.
Improvement in the Mexican economy has been better than previously
expected and should aid in rebuilding exports to that country. Also, lower
turkey prices will make it an attractively price protein import for Asian
countries such as Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan.
First-quarter 1995 turkey exports could rise 4-6 percent as exports to
Mexico, the largest market for turkey exports, have not fallen as much as
earlier anticipated. Mexican turkey imports are expected to be down less
than 10 percent from the same period in 1994, but average unit values
have fallen. Substitution to lower value products, such as ground turkey
imported for sausage, is replacing dark meat parts to minimize higher costs
due to the lower peso value.
Also bolstering first-quarter 1995 turkey exports are growing markets in
Korea, Hong Kong, and the United Kingdom. Exports to these areas
should be well above a year earlier. A weaker dollar compared to a
number of Asian currencies and slightly lower prices contributed to the
increase.
Egg Exports Marginally Higher in 1996
First quarter 1995 exports should grow 2-3 percent above the previous
year. Higher exports to Japan and Hong Kong are expected to provide
most of the increase, offsetting declines to Mexico and Canada.
During January-February 1995, Export Enhancement Program (EEP) sales
to Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates pushed exports higher than a year
ago. The total value of EEP bonuses are expected to decline in the
second half of 1995, and egg sales to Hong Kong and Persian Gulf
countries likely will decline. Lower EEP sales in 1996 are expected to hold
U.S. egg exports to only a marginal increase.
Poultry and eggs costs and returns 1/
Production Wholesale
costs Net
Total Price returns
Year Feed Total costs 3/
Market Eggs
1993: (cents/dozen)
I 25.9 44.1 64.6 78.8 14.1
II 26.6 44.8 65.3 74.7 9.4
III 28.1 46.3 66.8 72.0 5.2
IV 28.8 47.0 67.5 74.9 7.4
Year 27.4 45.6 66.1 75.1 9.0
1994:
I 31.9 50.1 70.6 75.5 4.9
II 30.1 48.3 68.8 65.6 -3.2
III 27.6 45.8 66.3 70.6 4.2
IV 25.3 43.5 64.0 72.8 8.8
Year 28.7 46.9 67.3 71.1 3.8
1995:
I 26.0 44.2 64.7 72.4 7.7
Broilers
1993: (cents/lb)
I 15.4 25.8 48.0 53.1 5.1
II 15.5 25.8 48.1 55.8 7.7
III 16.2 26.6 49.1 56.9 7.9
IV 16.5 26.8 49.4 54.9 5.6
Year 15.9 26.2 48.6 55.2 6.6
1994:
I 17.8 28.1 51.1 55.2 4.1
II 17.4 27.7 50.6 60.0 9.4
III 16.6 26.9 49.5 55.9 6.3
IV 15.2 25.5 47.7 51.8 4.1
Year 16.7 27.1 49.7 55.7 6.0
1995:
I 15.0 25.3 47.4 51.7 4.3
Turkeys
1993: (cents/lb)
I 21.2 34.9 59.9 57.3 -2.6
II 21.4 35.1 60.2 60.3 0.1
III 22.1 35.8 61.0 64.7 3.7
IV 23.8 37.5 63.1 69.3 6.1
Year 22.2 35.9 61.1 63.2 2.1
1994:
I 24.6 38.3 64.2 59.4 -4.8
II 25.3 39.0 65.0 63.4 -1.6
III 24.0 37.7 63.5 68.1 4.6
IV 21.5 35.2 60.3 71.6 11.3
Year 23.8 37.5 63.2 65.9 2.7
1995:
I 20.4 34.1 59.0 59.4 0.4
1/ Estimated costs and prices are weighted by monthly
production. 2/ Based on farm cost converted to wholesale
market value. 3/ Wholesale prices used are the 12-metro
egg price, 12-city weighted average broiler price, and a
weighted average of 8-16 lb young hens and 14-22 lb toms
in Central, Western and Eastern Regions.
U.S. broiler exports to major importers
January - February
Country February 1994 1995
1000 lb.
Russia 97,550 80,370 199,154
Hong Kong 80,955 79,445 143,417
Japan 16,891 24,961 33,630
Mexico 14,541 31,441 29,285
South Africa 10,274 364 20,257
China 6,306 5,771 11,431
Jamaica 4,436 8,050 9,834
Canada 4,223 10,077 8,615
Estonia 100 154 7,496
Singapore 3,927 10,795 7,219
Saudi Arabia 3,503 5,065 7,107
Finland 2,389 761 4,887
Romania 1,692 10,430 4,658
Korea 3,277 1,269 4,067
Colombia 1,369 1,373 3,369
N. Antilles 1,577 3,098 2,598
Poland 966 17,999 2,237
U. Arab Emirate 1,554 3,644 2,178
Guatemala 800 1,906 1,942
Guyana 984 2,129 1,927
Other 13,837 36,175 26,861
Total 271,151 335,276 532,170
U.S. turkey exports to major importers
January - February
Country February 1994 1995
1000 lb.
Mexico 13,658 17,978 20,354
Korea 2,979 1,712 4,097
South Africa 163 41 2,067
Hong Kong 1,418 759 1,917
United Kingdom 738 1,034 1,866
Russia 896 7,620 1,231
Canada 418 1,073 974
Egypt 0 0 440
Germany 165 249 403
Romania 284 0 284
Brazil 240 0 240
Taiwan 98 0 216
Spain 150 0 200
Japan 111 78 193
Ghana 0 40 152
Ecuador 78 0 142
Marshall Island 45 158 139
Micronesia 80 53 115
French Polynesia 31 0 110
France 102 78 102
Other 291 1,234 651
Total 21,945 32,107 35,893
Selected price statistics for poultry and eggs
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Item Oct-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95
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Poultry prices:
Farm - liveweight Cents per dozen
All Eggs 57.60 62.50 63.00 62.00 61.60 61.40 62.00
Cents per pound
Broiler 34.70 32.70 32.50 32.60 32.60 32.80 32.10
Turkey 44.30 44.80 42.30 39.30 37.20 38.30 38.30
Wholesale
Broilers
12-city avg, RTC 54.02 50.50 50.87 51.14 51.73 52.32 51.51
Georgia dock 53.54 50.47 50.36 50.50 50.64 51.20 50.61
Northeast
Breast, bnless 169.68 157.87 156.69 156.77 158.99 155.92 160.24
Breast, Ribs on 78.28 73.13 71.71 72.74 80.65 78.20 79.68
Legs, whole 51.06 48.11 48.20 50.01 50.79 50.80 50.60
Leg quarters 32.87 30.50 31.15 32.24 32.82 33.87 32.66
Turkey
Eastern Region
Toms, 14-22 lb. 73.76 72.56 68.46 61.05 58.55 60.09 60.35
Hens, 8-16 lb. 73.13 74.01 70.35 60.71 58.54 60.04 60.05
Breast 4-8 lb. 108.00 108.00 101.75 95.08 97.13 97.67 96.23
Drumsticks 31.31 29.98 28.65 27.89 32.22 29.13 25.18
Wings, full cut 32.18 29.50 27.39 26.91 29.41 32.67 26.99
Eggs, grade A, large Cents per dozen
12 city metro 67.00 74.36 77.08 72.64 71.76 72.64 72.92
New York 63.80 68.50 69.26 65.20 64.30 66.20 66.65
Price to retailer
U.S. average Cents per dozen
Eggs 64.05 71.54 75.08 70.64 69.76 70.64 70.92
Cents per pound
Broiler 63.20 59.33 58.93 59.11 59.73 60.32 59.51
Turkey 79.89 83.33 77.34 69.54 67.08 68.47 68.62
Retail price
U.S. average
Broiler Cents per pound
Composite 142.50 140.60 138.70 138.90 141.20 145.10 143.70
Whole, fresh 88.90 90.40 89.50 89.70 89.30 91.70 91.10
Breast, bone-in 198.10 193.70 190.50 192.50 194.30 202.80 199.40
Legs, bone-in 114.40 113.40 112.30 111.20 114.60 115.30 115.20
Whole turkey, frz 105.40 97.20 97.60 98.00 99.10 102.20 100.70
Cents per dozen
Eggs, grade A, lrg 81.00 85.70 87.30 88.20 86.30 87.50 83.30
Price indexes: 1982-84 = 100
All poultry 141.50 140.20 140.40 140.20 141.40 143.30 142.30
Chicken, whole fresh 137.80 139.80 139.40 139.70 138.70 141.70 141.70
Parts, frsh and frz 145.50 142.80 143.20 141.60 144.30 146.30 144.50
Other poultry 141.50 138.10 138.90 141.50 142.40 142.70 141.80
Eggs 110.40 115.40 116.40 115.40 113.90 115.30 112.00
Retail-to-consumer sprea Cents per pound
Broiler, whole 25.70 31.07 30.57 30.59 29.57 31.38 31.59
Turkey, whole 25.51 13.87 20.26 28.46 32.02 33.73 32.08
Cents per dozen
Eggs 16.95 14.16 12.22 17.56 16.54 16.86 12.38
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Selected hatch, slaughter, and production statistics for
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Item Oct-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95
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Hatchery operations:
Eggs in incubators -
First of the month Thousa
Broiler 501,080 494,274 538,783 534,462 536,954 549,742 559,251
Turkey 31,292 31,307 32,629 34,881 35,095 35,158 36,814
Egg-type 28,356 24,354 28,684 29,548 28,653 32,320 33,137
Hatch
Broiler chicks 617,957 597,276 658,914 661,389 598,962 677,334 660,000
Egg-type chicks 31,766 25,475 29,072 31,527 31,693 34,806 35,500
Placements
Turkey poults 23,517 24,697 25,621 27,038 25,943 28,514 26,760
Broiler breeders 6,342 5,819 6,413 5,748 5,481 6,161 6,000
Egg-type breeders 270 223 125 236 251 356 300
Layers:
In production Thousa
Table egg 244,497 245,795 247,213 245,584 244,231 243,158 241,000
Hatching egg 50,675 50,752 51,496 52,221 52,246 52,190 52,200
All 295,172 296,547 298,709 297,805 296,477 295,348 293,200
Perc
Being molted, first of 5.1 3.9 3.5 4.6 6.4 4.8 3.4
Molt complete 23.3 23.8 25.1 23.8 23.6 24.0 23.7
Thousand
Light hen slaughter 7,175 7,149 9,378 9,951 8,290 9,238 9,500
Heavy hen slaughter 5,299 4,898 4,856 4,528 4,995 5,193 5,500
Eggs per 100 layers, f Number
Table egg 71.3 72.2 72.9 72.2 70.0 71.9 73.5
Hatching egg 59.6 59.3 59.7 59.4 58.6 58.9 59.5
All 69.2 70.0 70.7 70.0 68.0 69.6 71.0
Egg production Million
Table egg 454 447 464 452 405 457 445
Hatching egg 78 76 79 80 72 80 80
All 531 522 543 531 477 537 525
Eggs for breaking 124 122 119 117 112 127 125
Egg products produced Thousand pounds
Liquid 72,833 72,436 69,664 64,293 69,276 83,649 80,000
Frozen 35,148 37,535 39,201 36,134 30,649 36,077 36,500
Dried 12,957 12,692 12,122 12,758 11,751 12,156 13,500
Federally inspected slaughter
Head Thousand
Broiler 601,695 579,933 581,276 607,437 560,503 647,378 560,000
Turkey 25,738 25,630 21,728 20,563 19,960 23,214 19,200
Average liveweight Pounds
Broiler 4.71 4.70 4.68 4.67 4.65 4.64 4.65
Turkey 22.66 22.35 23.13 24.00 23.70 23.68 23.50
Production
Total liveweight Million pounds
Broiler 2,833 2,725 2,721 2,838 2,606 3,007 2,600
Turkey 583 573 503 493 473 550 450
Certified ready to c
Broiler 2,063 1,986 1,979 2,059 1,890 2,185 1,900
Turkey 459 454 397 389 371 434 355
Mature chicken 41 39 43 42 41 44 42
Beginning cold storage s
Total chicken 436 445 452 472 456 465 492
Total turkey 649 636 281 254 318 367 449
Eggs, frozen 18 20 19 19 20 18 19
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/* Preliminary
Poultry and total meat supply
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Production
------------------ Condem- Net RTC Begin- Total
Year Federally nations produc- ning supply
Inspected Other tion /3 stocks
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Broilers:
1993 22,178 36 199 22,015 368 22,383
1994
I 5,667 9 52 5,624 358 5,982
II 5,984 9 55 5,939 374 6,313
III 6,167 10 56 6,120 400 6,520
IV 6,029 10 55 5,983 420 6,403
Year 23,846 38 218 23,666 358 24,024
1995
I 6,135 10 56 6,088 458 6,547
II 2/ 6,375 10 58 6,327 486 6,812
III 2/ 6,500 10 59 6,451 490 6,941
IV 2/ 6,400 10 58 6,352 480 6,832
Year 2/ 25,410 40 236 25,218 458 25,676
1996
I 2/ 6,500 10 59 6,451 490 6,941
Year 2/ 27,000 43 257 26,796 490 27,286
Other chicken:
1993 513 3 1 515 10 525
1994
I 126 1 0 126 8 134
II 134 1 0 134 5 140
III 125 1 0 125 10 135
IV 123 1 0 123 16 139
Year 507 3 1 509 8 517
1995
I 128 1 0 128 14 142
II 2/ 135 1 0 135 6 142
III 2/ 135 1 0 135 10 145
IV 2/ 125 1 0 125 15 140
Year 2/ 523 3 1 524 14 538
1996
I 2/ 125 1 0 125 10 135
Year 2/ 510 3 1 510 10 520
Turkey:
1993 4,848 9 59 4,798 272 5,069
1994
I 1,091 1 13 1,079 249 1,328
II 1,254 2 15 1,240 347 1,587
III 1,337 2 16 1,322 539 1,861
IV 1,310 2 16 1,296 649 1,945
Year 4,992 6 61 4,937 249 5,187
1995
I 1,194 2 15 1,181 254 1,436
II 2/ 1,330 2 16 1,315 449 1,764
III 2/ 1,395 2 17 1,380 650 2,030
IV 2/ 1,380 2 17 1,365 750 2,115
Year 2/ 5,299 7 66 5,241 254 5,496
1996
I 2/ 1,260 2 15 1,246 350 1,596
Year 2/ 5,600 7 70 5,539 350 5,889
Total poultry:
1993 27,539 48 259 27,328 650 27,977
1994
I 6,883 11 65 6,829 615 7,444
II 7,372 12 70 7,314 726 8,040
III 7,629 12 73 7,568 949 8,517
IV 7,462 12 71 7,402 1,085 8,487
Year 29,346 47 280 29,113 615 29,727
1995
I 7,457 12 71 7,398 727 8,124
II 2/ 7,840 13 75 7,778 940 8,718
III 2/ 8,030 13 77 7,966 1,150 9,116
IV 2/ 7,905 13 76 7,842 1,245 9,087
Year 2/ 31,232 50 303 30,983 727 31,710
1996
I 2/ 7,885 13 75 7,822 850 8,672
Year 2/ 33,110 53 327 32,845 850 33,695
Total red meat
1992 67,178 1,395 71,707
1993 68,087 1,408 72,688
1994 71,796 1,515 76,473
1995 74,511 1,730 79,446
1996 77,422 1,721 82,361
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1/ Totals may not add due to rounding
2/ Forecast
3/ RTC for poultry only
Poultry and total meat utilization 1/
------------------------------------------------------------
Ex- Ending Total Per capita
ports stocks Disapp- RTC/carc. Retail
earance weight weight
------------------------------------------------------------
Broilers:
1993 1,966 358 20,059 77.7 68.5
1994
I 571 374 5,036 19.4 17.1
II 698 400 5,215 20.0 17.6
III 694 420 5,407 20.7 18.2
IV 912 458 5,032 19.2 16.9
Year 2,876 458 20,690 79.4 69.9
1995
I 805 486 5,256 20.0 17.7
II 2/ 825 490 5,497 20.9 18.4
III 2/ 855 480 5,606 21.3 18.7
IV 2/ 950 490 5,392 20.4 18.0
Year 2/ 3,435 490 21,751 82.6 72.8
1996
I 2/ 870 500 5,571 21.0 18.5
Year 2/ 3,700 530 23,056 86.8 76.4
Other chicken:
1993 56 8 461 1.8 1.8
1994
I 17 5 112 0.4 0.4
II 23 10 107 0.4 0.4
III 27 16 92 0.4 0.4
IV 23 14 102 0.4 0.4
Year 90 14 413 1.6 1.6
1995
I 20 6 116 0.4 0.4
II 2/ 24 10 108 0.4 0.4
III 2/ 28 15 102 0.4 0.4
IV 2/ 28 10 102 0.4 0.4
Year 2/ 100 10 428 1.6 1.6
1996
I 2/ 20 10 105 0.4 0.4
Year 2/ 103 10 407 1.5 1.5
Turkey:
1993 212 249 4,608 17.9 17.9
1994
I 52 347 929 3.6 3.6
II 60 539 987 3.8 3.8
III 54 649 1,159 4.4 4.4
IV 79 254 1,611 6.2 6.2
Year 246 254 4,686 18.0 18.0
1995
I 55 449 932 3.6 3.6
II 2/ 59 650 1,055 4.0 4.0
III 2/ 65 750 1,215 4.6 4.6
IV 2/ 71 350 1,694 6.4 6.4
Year 2/ 250 350 4,896 18.6 18.6
1996
I 2/ 56 400 1,140 4.3 4.3
Year 2/ 258 300 5,331 20.1 20.1
Total poultry:
1993 2,234 615 25,128 97.4 88.1
1994
I 641 726 6,077 23.4 21.1
II 781 949 6,310 24.2 21.9
III 775 1,085 6,657 25.5 23.0
IV 1,015 727 6,746 25.8 23.5
Year 3,212 727 25,789 98.9 89.5
1995
I 880 940 6,304 24.0 21.7
II 2/ 908 1,150 6,660 25.3 22.8
III 2/ 948 1,245 6,923 26.3 23.7
IV 2/ 1,049 850 7,188 27.2 24.8
Year 2/ 3,785 850 27,075 102.9 93.0
1996
I 2/ 946 910 6,816 25.7 23.2
Year 2/ 4,061 840 28,794 108.4 98.0
Total red meat
1992 3,440 1,408 66,860 261.8 207.7
1993 3,953 1,515 67,221 260.4 207.8
1994 5,363 1,730 69,381 266.2 212.2
1995 6,013 1,721 71,712 272.5 217.4
1996 6,329 1,731 74,301 279.6 223.5
------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Totals may not add due to rounding
2/ Forecast
3/ RTC for poultry only
Egg supply 1/
------------------------------------------------------------
Produc- Begin- Breaking Imports Total
tion ning egg use supply
Year stocks
------------------------------------------------------------
------------------Million dozen---------------
Total eggs:
1994
I 1,508.7 10.7 --- 1.0 1,520.3
II 1,521.2 12.1 --- 1.1 1,534.4
III 1,550.2 11.9 --- 1.0 1,563.1
IV 1,596.8 13.8 --- 0.6 1,611.2
Year 6,176.8 10.7 --- 3.7 6,191.1
1995
I 3/ 1,545.1 14.9 --- 1.0 1,561.0
II 3/ 1,555.0 14.3 --- 1.0 1,570.3
III 3/ 1,560.0 12.0 --- 1.0 1,573.0
IV 3/ 1,605.0 12.0 --- 1.0 1,618.0
Year 3/ 6,265.0 14.9 --- 4.0 6,283.9
1996
I 3/ 1,580.0 12.0 --- 1.0 1,593.0
Year 3/ 6,380.0 12.0 --- 4.0 6,396.0
Shell eggs:
1994
I 1,508.7 0.3 319.8 0.7 1,189.8
II 1,521.2 0.3 355.6 0.8 1,166.6
III 1,550.2 0.2 362.5 0.7 1,188.6
IV 1,596.8 0.3 364.7 0.5 1,232.8
Year 6,176.8 0.3 1,402.7 2.6 4,777.0
1995
I 3/ 1,545.1 0.1 355.8 0.8 1,190.2
Year 3/ 6,265.0 0.1 1,515.8 3.0 4,752.3
------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Totals may not add due to rounding
2/ Shell eggs and approximate shell-egg equivalent of egg products.
3/ Forecast
Egg utilization 1/
------------------------------------------------------------
Exports Hatching Ending Per
2/ egg use stocks Total capita
------------------------------------------------------------
---------Million dozen------ Number
Total eggs:
1994
I 40.2 195.3 12.1 1,272.7 58.8
II 45.5 205.3 11.9 1,271.6 58.6
III 49.3 202.8 13.8 1,297.2 59.6
IV 52.6 199.6 14.9 1,344.1 61.6
Year 187.6 803.0 14.9 5,185.6 238.7
1995
I 3/ 44.0 206.2 14.3 1,296.5 59.3
II 3/ 48.0 215.0 12.0 1,295.3 59.1
III 3/ 51.0 210.0 12.0 1,300.0 59.2
IV 3/ 49.0 205.0 12.0 1,352.0 61.4
Year 3/ 192.0 836.2 12.0 5,243.7 239.1
1996
I 3/ 42.0 215.0 12.0 1,324.0 60.0
Year 3/ 193.0 870.0 12.0 5,321.0 240.3
Shell eggs:
1994
I 21.1 195.3 0.3 973.2 45.0
II 29.0 205.3 0.2 932.0 43.0
III 30.6 202.8 0.3 955.0 43.9
IV 29.7 199.6 0.1 1,003.4 46.0
Year 110.4 803.0 0.1 3,863.5 177.9
1995
I 3/ 22.0 206.2 0.2 961.8 44.0
Year 3/ 114.0 836.2 0.1 3,802.0 173.3
------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Totals may not add due to rounding
2/ Shell eggs and approximate shell-egg equivalent of egg products.
3/ Forecast
U.S. egg exports to major importers 1/
---------------------------------------------------
January -
Country Februa 1994 1995
---------------------------------------------------
1000 dozen
Japan 6,461 6,653 9,940
Hong Kong 2,782 6,782 5,768
Canada 2,095 3,594 3,285
Mexico 1,959 2,965 2,859
U. Arab Emirat 637 472 1,948
Kuwait 313 287 570
Jamaica 429 498 524
Nicaragua 232 75 495
Yemen 344 0 480
Brazil 251 0 378
Germany 144 1,149 372
Trinidad 120 9 289
France 135 90 234
Oman 175 26 227
United Kingdom 121 87 124
Haiti 81 0 117
Colombia 42 75 78
Guyana 35 51 78
Korea 53 59 77
Netherlands 61 393 71
Other 646 1,735 1,121
Total 17,115 25,000 29,035
---------------------------------------------------
1/ Shell and shell equivalent of egg products
U.S. mature chicken exports to major importers
January - February
Country Februar 1994 1995
1000 lb.
Hong Kong 2,772 1,860 4,629
Canada 1,104 2,536 2,381
Japan 408 2,426 1,020
Surinam 496 0 791
N. Antilles 338 400 681
Mexico 433 791 503
New Caledonia 229 0 496
Greece 153 0 490
Colombia 100 0 313
China 127 149 127
Marshall Islands 76 38 106
Aruba 46 0 98
Antiqua 90 0 90
French Polynesia 50 0 87
Guatemala 80 0 80
St. Lucia 48 42 71
Haiti 60 24 60
Poland 51 0 51
St. Vincent 46 0 46
Russia 43 252 43
Other 52 555 89
Total 6,799 9,073 12,250
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