Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released December 19, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.9 million head on December 1, 2014. The inventory was 1 percent above December 1, 2013. Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.79 million, 4 percent below 2013. Net placements were 1.72 million head. During November, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 550,000, 600-699 pounds were 440,000, 700-799 pounds were 362,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 440,000. For the month of November, placements are the second lowest since the series began in 1996. Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.48 million, 11 percent below 2013. November marketings are the lowest since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 74,000 during November, 9 percent above 2013. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: December 1, 2013 and 2014 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2013 : 2014 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed November 1 .....................: 10,585 10,633 100 Placed on feed during November .........: 1,867 1,792 96 Fed cattle marketed during November ....: 1,660 1,475 89 Other disappearance during November ....: 68 74 109 On feed December 1 .....................: 10,724 10,876 101 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: November 1, 2013 and 2014 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2013 : 2014 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed October 1 ......................: 10,110 10,058 99 Placed on feed during October ..........: 2,378 2,357 99 Fed cattle marketed during October .....: 1,827 1,685 92 Other disappearance during October .....: 76 97 128 On feed November 1 .....................: 10,585 10,633 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : December 1, 2014 : : :-------------------------------------------- State :December 1, 2013 :November 1, 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 275 250 252 92 101 California .......: 505 420 435 86 104 Colorado .........: 970 900 930 96 103 Idaho ............: 225 220 230 102 105 Iowa .............: 610 590 610 100 103 Kansas ...........: 2,050 2,080 2,100 102 101 Minnesota ........: 122 132 135 111 102 Nebraska .........: 2,430 2,450 2,550 105 104 Oklahoma .........: 265 260 260 98 100 South Dakota .....: 220 230 245 111 107 Texas ............: 2,510 2,550 2,560 102 100 Washington .......: 207 226 234 113 104 : Other States .....: 335 325 335 100 103 : United States ....: 10,724 10,633 10,876 101 102 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2013 : October 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 30 22 26 87 118 California .......: 63 53 62 98 117 Colorado .........: 165 210 155 94 74 Idaho ............: 42 61 43 102 70 Iowa .............: 122 132 117 96 89 Kansas ...........: 365 420 320 88 76 Minnesota ........: 18 30 15 83 50 Nebraska .........: 475 660 485 102 73 Oklahoma .........: 40 60 45 113 75 South Dakota .....: 61 84 53 87 63 Texas ............: 405 520 385 95 74 Washington .......: 44 51 47 107 92 : Other States .....: 37 54 39 105 72 : United States ....: 1,867 2,357 1,792 96 76 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 50 45 50 40 30 30 35 40 165 155 Kansas ...........: 80 65 90 75 105 95 90 85 365 320 Nebraska .........: 120 120 135 120 80 85 140 160 475 485 Texas ............: 165 160 115 95 75 80 50 50 405 385 : Other States .....: 165 160 120 110 62 72 110 105 457 447 : United States ....: 580 550 510 440 352 362 425 440 1,867 1,792 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 80 55 50 45 45 45 55 65 230 210 Kansas ...........: 90 85 120 100 140 115 120 120 470 420 Nebraska .........: 170 170 170 165 90 95 200 230 630 660 Texas ............: 190 180 120 130 145 130 65 80 520 520 : Other States .....: 190 200 118 130 85 77 135 140 528 547 : United States ....: 720 690 578 570 505 462 575 635 2,378 2,357 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2013 : October 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 24 21 19 79 90 California .......: 51 40 43 84 108 Colorado .........: 140 145 120 86 83 Idaho ............: 36 45 32 89 71 Iowa .............: 100 100 95 95 95 Kansas ...........: 345 320 285 83 89 Minnesota ........: 12 11 11 92 100 Nebraska .........: 400 430 370 93 86 Oklahoma .........: 43 43 43 100 100 South Dakota .....: 39 43 34 87 79 Texas ............: 400 420 360 90 86 Washington .......: 39 35 37 95 106 : Other States .....: 31 32 26 84 81 : United States ....: 1,660 1,685 1,475 89 88 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2013 : October 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 3 5 500 167 California .......: 2 8 4 200 50 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 2 2 2 100 100 Kansas ...........: 20 30 15 75 50 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 15 20 15 100 75 Oklahoma .........: 2 2 2 100 100 South Dakota .....: 2 1 4 200 400 Texas ............: 15 20 15 100 75 Washington .......: 1 2 2 200 100 : Other States .....: 1 2 3 300 150 : United States ....: 68 97 74 109 76 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.9 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 9,000 head, ranging from 0 to 34,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 8 times and has been below the latest estimate 6 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.1 0.2 9 0 34 6 8 : Placements ...................: 1.6 2.7 15 0 88 2 13 : Marketings ...................: 1.4 2.3 15 0 67 0 12 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Evan Schulz - Sheep and Goats ................ (202) 720-6147 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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