Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released January 23, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Special Note The 2013 monthly data for cattle on feed, inventory, placements, placement weights, and quarterly class breakouts are now available on Quick Stats. Please contact the Livestock Branch at (202) 720-3570 or email at hq_sd_lb@nass.usda.gov with any questions or concerns. United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.7 million head on January 1, 2015. The inventory was 1 percent above January 1, 2014. The inventory included 6.94 million steers and steer calves, up 2 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 65 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 3.67 million head, down 2 percent from 2014. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.54 million, 8 percent below 2013. Net placements were 1.47 million head. During December, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 435,000, 600-699 pounds were 375,000, 700-799 pounds were 339,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 395,000. Marketings of fed cattle during December totaled 1.66 million, 5 percent below 2013. Other disappearance totaled 72,000 during December, 6 percent below 2013. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: January 1, 2014 and 2015 [December preceeding year.] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2014 : 2015 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed December 1 .....................: 10,724 10,873 101 Placed on feed during December .........: 1,679 1,544 92 Fed cattle marketed during December ....: 1,736 1,655 95 Other disappearance during December ....: 77 72 94 On feed January 1 ......................: 10,590 10,690 101 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: December 1, 2013 and 2014 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2013 : 2014 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed November 1 .....................: 10,585 10,633 100 Placed on feed during November .........: 1,867 1,789 96 Fed cattle marketed during November ....: 1,660 1,475 89 Other disappearance during November ....: 68 74 109 On feed December 1 .....................: 10,724 10,873 101 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: January 1, 2014 and 2015 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2014 : 2015 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head --- percent : Class on Feed January 1 : Steers and Steer Calves ..............: 6,780 6,935 102 Heifers and Heifer Calves ............: 3,730 3,671 98 Cows and Bulls .......................: 80 84 105 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : January 1, 2015 : : :-------------------------------------------- State : January 1, 2014 :December 1, 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 274 252 249 91 99 California .......: 510 435 425 83 98 Colorado .........: 940 930 920 98 99 Idaho ............: 220 225 230 105 102 Iowa .............: 620 620 640 103 103 Kansas ...........: 2,010 2,100 2,050 102 98 Minnesota ........: 130 135 137 105 101 Nebraska .........: 2,400 2,550 2,490 104 98 Oklahoma .........: 260 260 255 98 98 South Dakota .....: 250 245 245 98 100 Texas ............: 2,440 2,560 2,500 102 98 Washington .......: 201 226 209 104 92 : Other States .....: 335 335 340 101 101 : United States ....: 10,590 10,873 10,690 101 98 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During December 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :December 2013 :November 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 28 26 26 93 100 California .......: 59 62 51 86 82 Colorado .........: 150 155 130 87 84 Idaho ............: 32 38 40 125 105 Iowa .............: 96 127 101 105 80 Kansas ...........: 360 320 330 92 103 Minnesota ........: 20 15 16 80 107 Nebraska .........: 405 485 395 98 81 Oklahoma .........: 43 45 36 84 80 South Dakota .....: 43 53 32 74 60 Texas ............: 370 385 325 88 84 Washington .......: 34 39 28 82 72 : Other States .....: 39 39 34 87 87 : United States ....: 1,679 1,789 1,544 92 86 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During December :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 40 35 40 35 35 25 35 35 150 130 Kansas ...........: 70 60 90 75 110 100 90 95 360 330 Nebraska .........: 80 65 100 100 95 90 130 140 405 395 Texas ............: 160 145 90 75 75 65 45 40 370 325 : Other States .....: 125 130 105 90 79 59 85 85 394 364 : United States ....: 475 435 425 375 394 339 385 395 1,679 1,544 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 50 45 50 40 30 30 35 40 165 155 Kansas ...........: 80 65 90 75 105 95 90 85 365 320 Nebraska .........: 120 120 135 120 80 85 140 160 475 485 Texas ............: 165 160 115 95 75 80 50 50 405 385 : Other States .....: 165 160 120 110 62 74 110 100 457 444 : United States ....: 580 550 510 440 352 364 425 435 1,867 1,789 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During December 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :December 2013 :November 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 28 19 26 93 137 California .......: 52 43 54 104 126 Colorado .........: 150 120 135 90 113 Idaho ............: 36 32 34 94 106 Iowa .............: 84 95 80 95 84 Kansas ...........: 385 285 370 96 130 Minnesota ........: 11 11 13 118 118 Nebraska .........: 420 370 440 105 119 Oklahoma .........: 45 43 39 87 91 South Dakota .....: 30 34 30 100 88 Texas ............: 420 360 365 87 101 Washington .......: 37 37 42 114 114 : Other States .....: 38 26 27 71 104 : United States ....: 1,736 1,475 1,655 95 112 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During December 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :December 2013 :November 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 5 3 300 60 California .......: 2 4 7 350 175 Colorado .........: 10 5 5 50 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 2 2 1 50 50 Kansas ...........: 15 15 10 67 67 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 15 15 15 100 100 Oklahoma .........: 3 2 2 67 100 South Dakota .....: 3 4 2 67 50 Texas ............: 20 15 20 100 133 Washington .......: 3 2 3 100 150 : Other States .....: 1 3 2 200 67 : United States ....: 77 74 72 94 97 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Quarter - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Steers and steer calves :Heifers and heifer calves : Cows and bulls :----------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Jan 1, : Oct 1, : Jan 1, : Jan 1, : Oct 1, : Jan 1, :Jan 1, :Oct 1, :Jan 1, : 2014 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2014 : 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Head : Arizona ..........: 268 249 246 6 3 3 0 0 0 California .......: 470 365 395 40 50 30 0 0 0 Colorado .........: 605 530 585 330 305 320 5 5 15 Idaho ............: 125 112 137 91 88 92 4 5 1 Iowa .............: 425 430 490 195 130 150 0 0 0 Kansas ...........: 1,060 1,050 1,100 945 955 945 5 5 5 Minnesota ........: 107 96 108 22 17 28 1 1 1 Nebraska .........: 1,545 1,450 1,615 820 765 840 35 25 35 Oklahoma .........: 170 165 170 90 80 85 0 0 0 South Dakota .....: 135 104 139 90 78 82 25 8 24 Texas ............: 1,510 1,590 1,600 929 879 899 1 1 1 Washington .......: 120 119 120 77 92 87 4 1 2 : Other States .....: 240 200 230 95 105 110 0 0 0 : United States ....: 6,780 6,460 6,935 3,730 3,547 3,671 80 51 84 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.7 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 9,000 head, ranging from 0 to 41,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 8 times and has been below the latest estimate 6 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.1 0.3 9 0 41 6 8 : Placements ...................: 1.7 2.9 16 0 88 2 13 : Marketings ...................: 1.3 2.3 14 0 67 0 11 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Evan Schulz - Sheep and Goats ................ (202) 720-6147 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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