Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released May 20, 2016, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.8 million head on May 1, 2016. The inventory was 1 percent above May 1, 2015. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.66 million head, 7 percent above 2015. Net placements were 1.59 million head. During April, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 334,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 225,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 390,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 715,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled 1.66 million head, 1 percent above 2015. Other disappearance totaled 76,000 head during April, 15 percent above 2015. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: May 1, 2015 and 2016 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2015 : 2016 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed April 1 ........................: 10,797 10,853 101 Placed on feed during April ............: 1,548 1,664 107 Fed cattle marketed during April .......: 1,639 1,658 101 Other disappearance during April .......: 66 76 115 On feed May 1 ..........................: 10,640 10,783 101 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: April 1, 2015 and 2016 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2015 : 2016 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed March 1 ........................: 10,688 10,770 101 Placed on feed during March ............: 1,809 1,892 105 Fed cattle marketed during March .......: 1,631 1,747 107 Other disappearance during March .......: 69 62 90 On feed April 1 ........................: 10,797 10,853 101 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : May 1, 2016 : : :-------------------------------------------- State : May 1, 2015 : April 1, 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 240 303 305 127 101 California .......: 450 420 415 92 99 Colorado .........: 900 900 900 100 100 Idaho ............: 235 240 240 102 100 Iowa .............: 660 640 640 97 100 Kansas ...........: 2,060 2,180 2,150 104 99 Minnesota ........: 145 160 158 109 99 Nebraska .........: 2,500 2,440 2,420 97 99 Oklahoma .........: 270 295 300 111 102 South Dakota .....: 240 265 265 110 100 Texas ............: 2,410 2,500 2,490 103 100 Washington .......: 230 195 195 85 100 : Other States .....: 300 315 305 102 97 : United States ....: 10,640 10,853 10,783 101 99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During April 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : April 2015 : March 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 24 31 25 104 81 California .......: 49 44 50 102 114 Colorado .........: 145 165 145 100 88 Idaho ............: 30 37 24 80 65 Iowa .............: 63 94 78 124 83 Kansas ...........: 315 425 370 117 87 Minnesota ........: 11 17 12 109 71 Nebraska .........: 390 455 380 97 84 Oklahoma .........: 34 53 56 165 106 South Dakota .....: 28 34 24 86 71 Texas ............: 385 455 435 113 96 Washington .......: 42 38 34 81 89 : Other States .....: 32 44 31 97 70 : United States ....: 1,548 1,892 1,664 107 88 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 - 2016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During April :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 25 25 25 20 35 35 60 65 145 145 Kansas ...........: 55 55 50 50 80 100 130 165 315 370 Nebraska .........: 50 45 55 45 85 85 200 205 390 380 Texas ............: 105 120 70 70 95 110 115 135 385 435 : Other States .....: 85 89 40 40 53 60 135 145 313 334 : United States ....: 320 334 240 225 348 390 640 715 1,548 1,664 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During March :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 30 25 25 30 40 45 55 65 150 165 Kansas ...........: 60 55 65 70 110 125 175 175 410 425 Nebraska .........: 55 55 65 60 100 110 220 230 440 455 Texas ............: 115 115 70 70 120 125 115 145 420 455 : Other States .....: 105 102 50 45 79 90 155 155 389 392 : United States ....: 365 352 275 275 449 495 720 770 1,809 1,892 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During April 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : April 2015 : March 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 24 24 22 92 92 California .......: 40 58 52 130 90 Colorado .........: 120 150 135 113 90 Idaho ............: 24 35 23 96 66 Iowa .............: 72 81 75 104 93 Kansas ...........: 355 390 385 108 99 Minnesota ........: 11 19 13 118 68 Nebraska .........: 405 425 380 94 89 Oklahoma .........: 48 47 50 104 106 South Dakota .....: 21 38 22 105 58 Texas ............: 435 395 435 100 110 Washington .......: 35 37 33 94 89 : Other States .....: 49 48 33 67 69 : United States ....: 1,639 1,747 1,658 101 95 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During April 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : April 2015 : March 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 4 6 3 75 50 Colorado .........: 15 5 10 67 200 Idaho ............: 1 2 1 100 50 Iowa .............: 1 3 3 300 100 Kansas ...........: 10 15 15 150 100 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 15 10 20 133 200 Oklahoma .........: 1 1 1 100 100 South Dakota .....: 2 1 2 100 200 Texas ............: 10 10 10 100 100 Washington .......: 2 1 1 50 100 : Other States .....: 3 6 8 267 133 : United States ....: 66 62 76 115 123 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.8 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.8 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 30,000 head, ranging from 0 to 97,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 8 times and has been below the latest estimate 8 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.5 0.8 30 0 97 8 8 : Placements ...................: 0.5 0.9 5 0 28 13 3 : Marketings ...................: 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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