Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released October 23, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.2 million head on October 1, 2015. The inventory was 2 percent above October 1, 2014. The inventory included 6.93 million steers and steer calves, up 7 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 68 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 3.29 million head, down 7 percent from 2014. October 1, 2015 heifers and heifer calves inventory is the lowest percent of total October inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 1.93 million head, 4 percent below 2014. Net placements were 1.87 million head. During September, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 395,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 290,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 416,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 830,000 head. Placements are the lowest for September since the series began in 1996. Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.64 million head, 2 percent below 2014. Other disappearance totaled 57,000 head during September, 12 percent below 2014. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: October 1, 2014 and 2015 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2014 : 2015 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head --- percent : On feed September 1 ....................: 9,719 9,986 103 Placed on feed during September ........: 2,014 1,931 96 Fed cattle marketed during September ...: 1,683 1,642 98 Other disappearance during September ...: 65 57 88 On feed October 1 ......................: 9,985 10,218 102 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: September 1, 2014 and 2015 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2014 : 2015 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head --- percent : On feed August 1 .......................: 9,752 10,002 103 Placed on feed during August ...........: 1,725 1,632 95 Fed cattle marketed during August ......: 1,692 1,588 94 Other disappearance during August ......: 66 60 91 On feed September 1 ....................: 9,719 9,986 103 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: October 1, 2014 and 2015 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2014 : 2015 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head --- percent : Class on feed October 1 : Steers and steer calves ..............: 6,447 6,927 107 Heifers and heifer calves ............: 3,538 3,291 93 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : October 1, 2015 : : :-------------------------------------------- State : October 1, 2014 :September 1, 2015: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 252 241 240 95 100 California .......: 415 455 460 111 101 Colorado .........: 820 780 830 101 106 Idaho ............: 195 215 220 113 102 Iowa .............: 560 620 600 107 97 Kansas ...........: 2,010 1,950 2,020 100 104 Minnesota ........: 113 140 138 122 99 Nebraska .........: 2,230 2,200 2,270 102 103 Oklahoma .........: 245 250 255 104 102 South Dakota .....: 180 205 205 114 100 Texas ............: 2,470 2,450 2,490 101 102 Washington .......: 190 195 195 103 100 : Other States .....: 305 285 295 97 104 : United States ....: 9,985 9,986 10,218 102 102 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During September 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :September 2014: August 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 20 21 18 90 86 California .......: 43 41 48 112 117 Colorado .........: 200 130 210 105 162 Idaho ............: 64 36 49 77 136 Iowa .............: 99 70 85 86 121 Kansas ...........: 400 370 400 100 108 Minnesota ........: 20 22 17 85 77 Nebraska .........: 530 410 510 96 124 Oklahoma .........: 55 50 52 95 104 South Dakota .....: 50 31 43 86 139 Texas ............: 445 385 420 94 109 Washington .......: 43 30 36 84 120 : Other States .....: 45 36 43 96 119 : United States ....: 2,014 1,632 1,931 96 118 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 35 30 20 15 45 40 100 125 200 210 Kansas ...........: 70 60 80 80 115 120 135 140 400 400 Nebraska .........: 75 60 75 50 95 85 285 315 530 510 Texas ............: 170 140 115 100 100 105 60 75 445 420 : Other States .....: 110 105 60 45 79 66 190 175 439 391 : United States ....: 460 395 350 290 434 416 770 830 2,014 1,931 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During August :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 30 20 15 10 35 30 65 70 145 130 Kansas ...........: 75 65 80 65 110 95 145 145 410 370 Nebraska .........: 55 50 50 35 95 85 225 240 425 410 Texas ............: 170 175 95 70 85 85 60 55 410 385 : Other States .....: 80 85 45 35 70 67 140 150 335 337 : United States ....: 410 395 285 215 395 362 635 660 1,725 1,632 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During September 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :September 2014: August 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 24 17 17 71 100 California .......: 38 36 38 100 106 Colorado .........: 155 135 155 100 115 Idaho ............: 38 40 43 113 108 Iowa .............: 114 77 101 89 131 Kansas ...........: 325 340 320 98 94 Minnesota ........: 18 14 18 100 129 Nebraska .........: 400 400 430 108 108 Oklahoma .........: 54 49 46 85 94 South Dakota .....: 42 34 42 100 124 Texas ............: 410 360 365 89 101 Washington .......: 32 44 35 109 80 : Other States .....: 33 42 32 97 76 : United States ....: 1,683 1,588 1,642 98 103 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During September 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :September 2014: August 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 2 2 200 100 California .......: 5 5 5 100 100 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 5 3 4 80 133 Kansas ...........: 15 10 10 67 100 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 10 10 10 100 100 Oklahoma .........: 1 1 1 100 100 South Dakota .....: 3 2 1 33 50 Texas ............: 15 15 15 100 100 Washington .......: 1 1 1 100 100 : Other States .....: 2 4 1 50 25 : United States ....: 65 60 57 88 95 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Quarter - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers and steer calves : Heifers and heifer calves :----------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Oct 1, : Jul 1, : Oct 1, : Oct 1, : Jul 1, : Oct 1, : 2014 : 2015 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2015 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Arizona ............: 249 236 236 3 4 4 California .........: 365 425 430 50 35 30 Colorado ...........: 520 560 570 300 270 260 Idaho ..............: 110 150 145 85 75 75 Iowa ...............: 430 490 450 130 150 150 Kansas .............: 1,050 1,030 1,100 960 910 920 Minnesota ..........: 96 126 118 17 15 20 Nebraska ...........: 1,460 1,570 1,520 770 710 750 Oklahoma ...........: 165 190 180 80 70 75 South Dakota .......: 102 142 118 78 88 87 Texas ..............: 1,590 1,650 1,740 880 830 750 Washington .........: 110 135 120 80 80 75 : Other States .......: 200 205 200 105 90 95 : United States ......: 6,447 6,909 6,927 3,538 3,327 3,291 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.2 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 47,000 head, ranging from 0 to 97,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 15 times and has been below the latest estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.6 1.0 47 0 97 4 15 : Placements ...................: 0.8 1.4 10 0 37 11 8 : Marketings ...................: 0.4 0.7 2 0 29 0 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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