Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released September 23, 2016, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.1 million head on September 1, 2016. The inventory was 1 percent above September 1, 2015. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.88 million head, 15 percent above 2015. Net placements were 1.84 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 360,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 290,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 429,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 800,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.87 million head, 18 percent above 2015. Other disappearance totaled 41,000 head during August, 32 percent below 2015. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: September 1, 2015 and 2016 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2015 : 2016 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed August 1 .......................: 10,002 10,165 102 Placed on feed during August ...........: 1,632 1,879 115 Fed cattle marketed during August ......: 1,588 1,868 118 Other disappearance during August ......: 60 41 68 On feed September 1 ....................: 9,986 10,135 101 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: August 1, 2015 and 2016 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2015 : 2016 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed July 1 .........................: 10,236 10,356 101 Placed on feed during July .............: 1,547 1,572 102 Fed cattle marketed during July ........: 1,725 1,713 99 Other disappearance during July ........: 56 50 89 On feed August 1 .......................: 10,002 10,165 102 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : September 1, 2016 : : :-------------------------------------------- State :September 1, 2015: August 1, 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 241 282 271 112 96 California .......: 455 410 405 89 99 Colorado .........: 780 810 800 103 99 Idaho ............: 215 230 225 105 98 Iowa .............: 620 600 580 94 97 Kansas ...........: 1,950 2,110 2,170 111 103 Minnesota ........: 140 133 119 85 89 Nebraska .........: 2,200 2,090 2,100 95 100 Oklahoma .........: 250 300 300 120 100 South Dakota .....: 205 220 215 105 98 Texas ............: 2,450 2,520 2,490 102 99 Washington .......: 195 190 180 92 95 : Other States .....: 285 270 280 98 104 : United States ....: 9,986 10,165 10,135 101 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During August 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : August 2015 : July 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 21 20 14 67 70 California .......: 41 35 40 98 114 Colorado .........: 130 115 170 131 148 Idaho ............: 36 34 45 125 132 Iowa .............: 70 68 71 101 104 Kansas ...........: 370 445 485 131 109 Minnesota ........: 22 9 15 68 167 Nebraska .........: 410 350 465 113 133 Oklahoma .........: 50 36 58 116 161 South Dakota .....: 31 18 33 106 183 Texas ............: 385 380 395 103 104 Washington .......: 30 30 35 117 117 : Other States .....: 36 32 53 147 166 : United States ....: 1,632 1,572 1,879 115 120 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During August :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 20 25 10 20 30 35 70 90 130 170 Kansas ...........: 65 75 65 85 95 135 145 190 370 485 Nebraska .........: 50 40 35 45 85 90 240 290 410 465 Texas ............: 175 140 70 100 85 95 55 60 385 395 : Other States .....: 85 80 35 40 67 74 150 170 337 364 : United States ....: 395 360 215 290 362 429 660 800 1,632 1,879 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During July :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 20 25 15 15 15 30 40 45 90 115 Kansas ...........: 65 65 70 75 115 130 145 175 395 445 Nebraska .........: 40 30 50 35 85 70 215 215 390 350 Texas ............: 155 155 70 80 65 75 75 70 365 380 : Other States .....: 85 77 30 30 47 55 145 120 307 282 : United States ....: 365 352 235 235 327 360 620 625 1,547 1,572 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During August 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : August 2015 : July 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 17 22 24 141 109 California .......: 36 45 42 117 93 Colorado .........: 135 150 175 130 117 Idaho ............: 40 38 49 123 129 Iowa .............: 77 76 90 117 118 Kansas ...........: 340 375 415 122 111 Minnesota ........: 14 20 28 200 140 Nebraska .........: 400 430 450 113 105 Oklahoma .........: 49 45 57 116 127 South Dakota .....: 34 32 37 109 116 Texas ............: 360 400 415 115 104 Washington .......: 44 34 44 100 129 : Other States .....: 42 46 42 100 91 : United States ....: 1,588 1,713 1,868 118 109 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During August 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : August 2015 : July 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 2 2 1 50 50 California .......: 5 5 3 60 60 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 3 2 1 33 50 Kansas ...........: 10 10 10 100 100 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 10 10 5 50 50 Oklahoma .........: 1 1 1 100 100 South Dakota .....: 2 1 1 50 100 Texas ............: 15 10 10 67 100 Washington .......: 1 1 1 100 100 : Other States .....: 4 1 1 25 100 : United States ....: 60 50 41 68 82 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by Regional Field Offices. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.1 million head by more than 0.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.5 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 15,000 head, ranging from 0 to 80,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 4 times and has been below the latest estimate 9 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.3 0.5 15 0 80 9 4 : Placements ...................: 0.4 0.8 4 0 28 13 0 : Marketings ...................: 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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