Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released September 19, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 9.8 million head on September 1, 2014. The inventory was 1 percent below September 1, 2013. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.72 million, 3 percent below 2013. Net placements were 1.65 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 410,000, 600-699 pounds were 280,000, 700-799 pounds were 395,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 635,000. For the month of August placements are the lowest since the series began in 1996. Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.69 million, 10 percent below 2013. August marketings are the lowest since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 66,000 during August, 32 percent above 2013. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: September 1, 2013 and 2014 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2013 : 2014 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed August 1 .......................: 10,025 9,837 98 Placed on feed during August ...........: 1,772 1,720 97 Fed cattle marketed during August ......: 1,871 1,692 90 Other disappearance during August ......: 50 66 132 On feed September 1 ....................: 9,876 9,799 99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: August 1, 2013 and 2014 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2013 : 2014 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed July 1 .........................: 10,375 10,127 98 Placed on feed during July .............: 1,684 1,560 93 Fed cattle marketed during July ........: 1,970 1,787 91 Other disappearance during July ........: 64 63 98 On feed August 1 .......................: 10,025 9,837 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : September 1, 2014 : : :-------------------------------------------- State :September 1, 2013: August 1, 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head ------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 266 262 257 97 98 California .......: 505 420 415 82 99 Colorado .........: 830 810 800 96 99 Idaho ............: 190 185 180 95 97 Iowa .............: 550 600 580 105 97 Kansas ...........: 1,980 1,900 1,950 98 103 Minnesota ........: 101 116 113 112 97 Nebraska .........: 2,090 2,160 2,130 102 99 Oklahoma .........: 280 240 245 88 102 South Dakota .....: 170 190 185 109 97 Texas ............: 2,430 2,470 2,450 101 99 Washington .......: 184 189 199 108 105 : Other States .....: 300 295 295 98 100 : United States ....: 9,876 9,837 9,799 99 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During August 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : August 2013 : July 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 23 23 21 91 91 California .......: 55 39 40 73 103 Colorado .........: 145 90 145 100 161 Idaho ............: 52 37 33 63 89 Iowa .............: 66 56 63 95 113 Kansas ...........: 380 400 410 108 103 Minnesota ........: 13 10 15 115 150 Nebraska .........: 440 375 425 97 113 Oklahoma .........: 47 32 50 106 156 South Dakota .....: 28 20 30 107 150 Texas ............: 440 410 410 93 100 Washington .......: 43 37 44 102 119 : Other States .....: 40 31 34 85 110 : United States ....: 1,772 1,560 1,720 97 110 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During August :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 25 30 20 15 45 35 55 65 145 145 Kansas ...........: 65 75 80 80 115 110 120 145 380 410 Nebraska .........: 55 55 65 50 100 95 220 225 440 425 Texas ............: 175 170 115 95 95 85 55 60 440 410 : Other States .....: 85 80 47 40 70 70 165 140 367 330 : United States ....: 405 410 327 280 425 395 615 635 1,772 1,720 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During July :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 30 25 20 15 30 20 40 30 120 90 Kansas ...........: 60 80 75 70 140 110 150 140 425 400 Nebraska .........: 45 55 55 50 90 85 180 185 370 375 Texas ............: 165 185 75 85 125 85 85 55 450 410 : Other States .....: 90 80 45 40 60 55 124 110 319 285 : United States ....: 390 425 270 260 445 355 579 520 1,684 1,560 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During August 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : August 2013 : July 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 18 26 25 139 96 California .......: 60 47 40 67 85 Colorado .........: 180 145 150 83 103 Idaho ............: 46 41 37 80 90 Iowa .............: 73 74 80 110 108 Kansas ...........: 390 390 345 88 88 Minnesota ........: 20 15 17 85 113 Nebraska .........: 420 465 440 105 95 Oklahoma .........: 51 46 44 86 96 South Dakota .....: 37 39 34 92 87 Texas ............: 490 415 415 85 100 Washington .......: 47 40 33 70 83 : Other States .....: 39 44 32 82 73 : United States ....: 1,871 1,787 1,692 90 95 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During August 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : August 2013 : July 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 7 1 100 14 California .......: 5 7 5 100 71 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 3 2 3 100 150 Kansas ...........: 10 10 15 150 150 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 10 10 15 150 150 Oklahoma .........: 1 1 1 100 100 South Dakota .....: 1 1 1 100 100 Texas ............: 10 15 15 150 100 Washington .......: 1 1 1 100 100 : Other States .....: 1 2 2 200 100 : United States ....: 50 63 66 132 105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.8 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 9,000 head, ranging from 0 to 34,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 8 times and has been below the latest estimate 9 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.1 0.2 9 0 34 9 8 : Placements ...................: 1.7 2.9 18 0 88 4 14 : Marketings ...................: 1.5 2.5 17 0 67 0 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Tiffany Hora - Livestock Slaughter ........... (515) 284-4340 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Evan Schulz - Sheep and Goats................. (202) 720-6147 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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