Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released November 20, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.8 million head on November 1, 2015. The inventory was 2 percent above November 1, 2014. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.28 million head, 4 percent below 2014. Net placements were 2.21 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 645,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 530,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 431,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 675,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.63 million head, 3 percent below 2014. Marketings are the lowest for October since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 75,000 head during October, 23 percent below 2014. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: November 1, 2014 and 2015 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2014 : 2015 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed October 1 ......................: 9,985 10,218 102 Placed on feed during October ..........: 2,368 2,281 96 Fed cattle marketed during October .....: 1,685 1,630 97 Other disappearance during October .....: 97 75 77 On feed November 1 .....................: 10,571 10,794 102 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: October 1, 2014 and 2015 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2014 : 2015 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head --- percent : On feed September 1 ....................: 9,719 9,986 103 Placed on feed during September ........: 2,014 1,931 96 Fed cattle marketed during September ...: 1,683 1,642 98 Other disappearance during September ...: 65 57 88 On feed October 1 ......................: 9,985 10,218 102 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : November 1, 2015 : : :-------------------------------------------- State :November 1, 2014 : October 1, 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 250 240 243 97 101 California .......: 420 460 460 110 100 Colorado .........: 880 830 880 100 106 Idaho ............: 210 220 230 110 105 Iowa .............: 590 600 640 108 107 Kansas ...........: 2,080 2,020 2,150 103 106 Minnesota ........: 131 138 151 115 109 Nebraska .........: 2,440 2,270 2,450 100 108 Oklahoma .........: 260 255 270 104 106 South Dakota .....: 220 205 240 109 117 Texas ............: 2,550 2,490 2,560 100 103 Washington .......: 215 195 205 95 105 : Other States .....: 325 295 315 97 107 : United States ....: 10,571 10,218 10,794 102 106 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2014 :September 2015: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 22 18 23 105 128 California .......: 53 48 43 81 90 Colorado .........: 210 210 195 93 93 Idaho ............: 61 49 58 95 118 Iowa .............: 132 85 156 118 184 Kansas ...........: 420 400 445 106 111 Minnesota ........: 30 17 30 100 176 Nebraska .........: 660 510 645 98 126 Oklahoma .........: 60 52 61 102 117 South Dakota .....: 84 43 75 89 174 Texas ............: 520 420 450 87 107 Washington .......: 62 36 50 81 139 : Other States .....: 54 43 50 93 116 : United States ....: 2,368 1,931 2,281 96 118 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 55 55 45 45 45 30 65 65 210 195 Kansas ...........: 85 80 100 100 115 115 120 150 420 445 Nebraska .........: 170 170 165 155 95 80 230 240 660 645 Texas ............: 180 140 130 110 130 130 80 70 520 450 : Other States .....: 205 200 130 120 78 76 145 150 558 546 : United States ....: 695 645 570 530 463 431 640 675 2,368 2,281 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 35 30 20 15 45 40 100 125 200 210 Kansas ...........: 70 60 80 80 115 120 135 140 400 400 Nebraska .........: 75 60 75 50 95 85 285 315 530 510 Texas ............: 170 140 115 100 100 105 60 75 445 420 : Other States .....: 110 105 60 45 79 66 190 175 439 391 : United States ....: 460 395 350 290 434 416 770 830 2,014 1,931 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2014 :September 2015: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 21 17 19 90 112 California .......: 40 38 38 95 100 Colorado .........: 145 155 140 97 90 Idaho ............: 45 43 47 104 109 Iowa .............: 100 101 113 113 112 Kansas ...........: 320 320 300 94 94 Minnesota ........: 11 18 16 145 89 Nebraska .........: 430 430 445 103 103 Oklahoma .........: 43 46 45 105 98 South Dakota .....: 43 42 39 91 93 Texas ............: 420 365 360 86 99 Washington .......: 35 35 39 111 111 : Other States .....: 32 32 29 91 91 : United States ....: 1,685 1,642 1,630 97 99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2014 :September 2015: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 3 2 1 33 50 California .......: 8 5 5 63 100 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 2 4 3 150 75 Kansas ...........: 30 10 15 50 150 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 20 10 20 100 200 Oklahoma .........: 2 1 1 50 100 South Dakota .....: 1 1 1 100 100 Texas ............: 20 15 20 100 133 Washington .......: 2 1 1 50 100 : Other States .....: 2 1 1 50 100 : United States ....: 97 57 75 77 132 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.8 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 45,000 head, ranging from 0 to 97,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 14 times and has been below the latest estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.6 1.0 45 0 97 4 14 : Placements ...................: 0.7 1.2 8 0 29 11 7 : Marketings ...................: 0.4 0.7 2 0 29 0 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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