Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released December 23, 2016, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.7 million head on December 1, 2016. The inventory was 1 percent below December 1, 2015. Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.84 million head, 15 percent above 2015. Net placements were 1.77 million head. During November, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 470,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 490,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 425,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 458,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.79 million head, 17 percent above 2015. Other disappearance totaled 69,000 head during November, 13 percent below 2015. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: December 1, 2015 and 2016 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2015 : 2016 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed November 1 .....................: 10,809 10,665 99 Placed on feed during November .........: 1,602 1,843 115 Fed cattle marketed during November ....: 1,532 1,787 117 Other disappearance during November ....: 79 69 87 On feed December 1 .....................: 10,800 10,652 99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: November 1, 2015 and 2016 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2015 : 2016 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed October 1 ......................: 10,228 10,256 100 Placed on feed during October ..........: 2,286 2,171 95 Fed cattle marketed during October .....: 1,630 1,705 105 Other disappearance during October .....: 75 57 76 On feed November 1 .....................: 10,809 10,665 99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : December 1, 2016 : : :-------------------------------------------- State :December 1, 2015 :November 1, 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 248 253 251 101 99 California .......: 455 420 420 92 100 Colorado .........: 890 910 910 102 100 Idaho ............: 235 250 260 111 104 Iowa .............: 630 600 600 95 100 Kansas ...........: 2,140 2,240 2,220 104 99 Minnesota ........: 152 142 141 93 99 Nebraska .........: 2,490 2,320 2,370 95 102 Oklahoma .........: 275 295 290 105 98 South Dakota .....: 250 240 245 98 102 Texas ............: 2,510 2,490 2,430 97 98 Washington .......: 205 195 195 95 100 : Other States .....: 320 310 320 100 103 : United States ....: 10,800 10,665 10,652 99 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2015 : October 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 27 14 27 100 193 California .......: 50 46 48 96 104 Colorado .........: 140 205 140 100 68 Idaho ............: 42 50 51 121 102 Iowa .............: 101 129 102 101 79 Kansas ...........: 305 390 370 121 95 Minnesota ........: 13 39 16 123 41 Nebraska .........: 440 615 510 116 83 Oklahoma .........: 45 63 52 116 83 South Dakota .....: 50 71 50 100 70 Texas ............: 310 445 390 126 88 Washington .......: 43 50 41 95 82 : Other States .....: 36 54 46 128 85 : United States ....: 1,602 2,171 1,843 115 85 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During November :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 35 45 35 35 30 25 40 35 140 140 Kansas ...........: 55 55 70 90 85 110 95 115 305 370 Nebraska .........: 115 120 110 150 60 85 155 155 440 510 Texas ............: 110 105 75 95 75 125 50 65 310 390 : Other States .....: 155 145 97 120 60 80 95 88 407 433 : United States ....: 470 470 387 490 310 425 435 458 1,602 1,843 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 55 55 45 45 30 35 65 70 195 205 Kansas ...........: 80 65 100 95 115 115 150 115 445 390 Nebraska .........: 170 200 155 145 80 95 240 175 645 615 Texas ............: 145 105 110 115 130 145 75 80 460 445 : Other States .....: 195 185 120 125 76 81 150 125 541 516 : United States ....: 645 610 530 525 431 471 680 565 2,286 2,171 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2015 : October 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 21 23 28 133 122 California .......: 45 39 45 100 115 Colorado .........: 125 140 135 108 96 Idaho ............: 36 39 39 108 100 Iowa .............: 107 96 100 93 104 Kansas ...........: 295 350 370 125 106 Minnesota ........: 11 14 16 145 114 Nebraska .........: 385 445 445 116 100 Oklahoma .........: 39 57 55 141 96 South Dakota .....: 38 40 44 116 110 Texas ............: 360 395 435 121 110 Washington .......: 42 39 40 95 103 : Other States .....: 28 28 35 125 125 : United States ....: 1,532 1,705 1,787 117 105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During November 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :November 2015 : October 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 5 2 3 60 150 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 2 200 200 Iowa .............: 4 3 2 50 67 Kansas ...........: 20 20 20 100 100 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 15 10 15 100 150 Oklahoma .........: 1 1 2 200 200 South Dakota .....: 2 1 1 50 100 Texas ............: 20 10 15 75 150 Washington .......: 1 1 1 100 100 : Other States .....: 3 1 1 33 100 : United States ....: 79 57 69 87 121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by Regional Field Offices. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.7 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 7,000 head, ranging from 0 to 60,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 2 times and has been below the latest estimate 9 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent ------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.1 0.2 7 0 60 9 2 : Placements ...................: 0.4 0.7 3 0 28 10 1 : Marketings ...................: 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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