Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released March 21, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.8 million head on March 1, 2014. The inventory was 1 percent below March 1, 2013. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.65 million, 15 percent above 2013. Net placements were 1.58 million head. During February, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 390,000, 600-699 pounds were 330,000, 700-799 pounds were 415,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 515,000. Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.55 million, 3 percent below 2013. Marketings for February are the lowest for the month since the data series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 71,000 during February, 18 percent above 2013. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: March 1, 2013 and 2014 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2013 : 2014 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed February 1 .....................: 11,070 10,760 97 Placed on feed during February .........: 1,438 1,650 115 Fed cattle marketed during February ....: 1,603 1,549 97 Other disappearance during February ....: 60 71 118 On feed March 1 ........................: 10,845 10,790 99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: February 1, 2013 and 2014 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2013 : 2014 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed January 1 ......................: 11,172 10,590 95 Placed on feed during January ..........: 1,869 2,029 109 Fed cattle marketed during January .....: 1,892 1,788 95 Other disappearance during January .....: 79 71 90 On feed February 1 .....................: 11,070 10,760 97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : March 1, 2014 : : :-------------------------------------------- State : March 1, 2013 :February 1, 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 270 272 272 101 100 California .......: 480 520 500 104 96 Colorado .........: 990 970 940 95 97 Idaho ............: 225 215 210 93 98 Iowa .............: 630 660 670 106 102 Kansas ...........: 2,050 2,050 2,060 100 100 Minnesota ........: 132 137 135 102 99 Nebraska .........: 2,430 2,460 2,500 103 102 Oklahoma .........: 305 265 270 89 102 South Dakota .....: 230 240 240 104 100 Texas ............: 2,550 2,440 2,470 97 101 Washington .......: 233 206 198 85 96 : Other States .....: 320 325 325 102 100 : United States ....: 10,845 10,760 10,790 99 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During February 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :February 2013 : January 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 23 31 28 122 90 California .......: 50 70 38 76 54 Colorado .........: 155 190 135 87 71 Idaho ............: 34 41 37 109 90 Iowa .............: 61 114 86 141 75 Kansas ...........: 285 435 335 118 77 Minnesota ........: 12 18 11 92 61 Nebraska .........: 340 545 430 126 79 Oklahoma .........: 37 47 43 116 91 South Dakota .....: 45 54 39 87 72 Texas ............: 335 405 410 122 101 Washington .......: 35 42 30 86 71 : Other States .....: 26 37 28 108 76 : United States ....: 1,438 2,029 1,650 115 81 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During February :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 30 30 25 25 50 35 50 45 155 135 Kansas ...........: 60 60 45 60 85 90 95 125 285 335 Nebraska .........: 60 65 55 90 100 105 125 170 340 430 Texas ............: 110 155 70 90 100 100 55 65 335 410 : Other States .....: 85 80 60 65 63 85 115 110 323 340 : United States ....: 345 390 255 330 398 415 440 515 1,438 1,650 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During January :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 30 45 45 45 60 50 55 50 190 190 Kansas ...........: 70 65 95 90 145 145 115 135 425 435 Nebraska .........: 60 75 95 115 155 165 155 190 465 545 Texas ............: 175 160 75 80 75 95 60 70 385 405 : Other States .....: 115 125 80 110 95 105 114 114 404 454 : United States ....: 450 470 390 440 530 560 499 559 1,869 2,029 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During February 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :February 2013 : January 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 27 32 27 100 84 California .......: 43 58 55 128 95 Colorado .........: 165 170 155 94 91 Idaho ............: 33 45 41 124 91 Iowa .............: 68 71 74 109 104 Kansas ...........: 335 385 315 94 82 Minnesota ........: 15 10 12 80 120 Nebraska .........: 370 470 375 101 80 Oklahoma .........: 55 40 36 65 90 South Dakota .....: 39 41 36 92 88 Texas ............: 390 385 360 92 94 Washington .......: 34 35 36 106 103 : Other States .....: 29 46 27 93 59 : United States ....: 1,603 1,788 1,549 97 87 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During February 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :February 2013 : January 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 2 2 3 150 150 Colorado .........: 10 10 10 100 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 3 3 2 67 67 Kansas ...........: 10 10 10 100 100 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 10 15 15 150 100 Oklahoma .........: 2 2 2 100 100 South Dakota .....: 1 3 3 300 100 Texas ............: 15 20 20 133 100 Washington .......: 2 2 2 100 100 : Other States .....: 2 1 1 50 100 : United States ....: 60 71 71 118 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 11 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 5 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 5 States include Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.8 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 9,000 head, ranging from 0 to 34,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 9 times and has been below the latest estimate 6 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.1 0.2 9 0 34 6 9 : Placements ...................: 1.6 2.7 16 0 88 3 13 : Marketings ...................: 1.3 2.3 14 0 67 1 12 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ............ (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ............ (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs ................... (202) 720-3106 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Sheep and Goats, Honey .. (202) 720-4751 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products .................. (202) 690-3236 Tiffany Hora - Livestock Slaughter ............ (515) 284-4340 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows ... (202) 720-3278 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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