Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released March 20, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.7 million head on March 1, 2015. The inventory was 1 percent below March 1, 2014. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.52 million, 8 percent below 2014. Net placements were 1.46 million head. During February, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 330,000, 600-699 pounds were 270,000, 700-799 pounds were 388,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 535,000. Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.52 million, 2 percent below 2014. February marketings are the lowest since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 62,000 during February, 13 percent below 2014. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: March 1, 2014 and 2015 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2014 : 2015 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed February 1 .....................: 10,678 10,713 100 Placed on feed during February .........: 1,658 1,523 92 Fed cattle marketed during February ....: 1,549 1,516 98 Other disappearance during February ....: 71 62 87 On feed March 1 ........................: 10,716 10,658 99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: February 1, 2014 and 2015 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2014 : 2015 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed January 1 ......................: 10,523 10,626 101 Placed on feed during January ..........: 2,014 1,789 89 Fed cattle marketed during January .....: 1,788 1,625 91 Other disappearance during January .....: 71 77 108 On feed February 1 .....................: 10,678 10,713 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : March 1, 2015 : : :-------------------------------------------- State : March 1, 2014 :February 1, 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 272 247 243 89 98 California .......: 500 440 440 88 100 Colorado .........: 920 890 870 95 98 Idaho ............: 205 230 230 112 100 Iowa .............: 670 650 660 99 102 Kansas ...........: 2,060 2,090 2,080 101 100 Minnesota ........: 134 141 145 108 103 Nebraska .........: 2,470 2,500 2,490 101 100 Oklahoma .........: 270 265 275 102 104 South Dakota .....: 220 230 235 107 102 Texas ............: 2,470 2,490 2,450 99 98 Washington .......: 200 210 215 108 102 : Other States .....: 325 330 325 100 98 : United States ....: 10,716 10,713 10,658 99 99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During February 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :February 2014 : January 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 28 30 19 68 63 California .......: 38 64 50 132 78 Colorado .........: 135 135 130 96 96 Idaho ............: 37 35 31 84 89 Iowa .............: 86 90 85 99 94 Kansas ...........: 335 410 355 106 87 Minnesota ........: 11 17 18 164 106 Nebraska .........: 430 505 390 91 77 Oklahoma .........: 43 50 42 98 84 South Dakota .....: 39 30 41 105 137 Texas ............: 410 350 285 70 81 Washington .......: 38 40 43 113 108 : Other States .....: 28 33 34 121 103 : United States ....: 1,658 1,789 1,523 92 85 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During February :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 30 25 25 25 35 35 45 45 135 130 Kansas ...........: 60 60 60 65 90 95 125 135 335 355 Nebraska .........: 65 60 90 65 105 95 170 170 430 390 Texas ............: 155 100 90 50 100 75 65 60 410 285 : Other States .....: 80 85 65 65 88 88 115 125 348 363 : United States ....: 390 330 330 270 418 388 520 535 1,658 1,523 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During January :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 45 30 45 25 50 35 50 45 190 135 Kansas ...........: 65 65 90 85 145 125 135 135 435 410 Nebraska .........: 75 65 115 100 165 140 190 200 545 505 Texas ............: 160 125 80 60 95 95 70 70 405 350 : Other States .....: 125 125 105 70 104 79 105 115 439 389 : United States ....: 470 410 435 340 559 474 550 565 2,014 1,789 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During February 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :February 2014 : January 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 27 23 19 70 83 California .......: 55 44 43 78 98 Colorado .........: 155 140 145 94 104 Idaho ............: 41 34 29 71 85 Iowa .............: 74 78 74 100 95 Kansas ...........: 315 355 355 113 100 Minnesota ........: 12 12 13 108 108 Nebraska .........: 375 450 385 103 86 Oklahoma .........: 36 39 30 83 77 South Dakota .....: 36 27 35 97 130 Texas ............: 360 345 315 88 91 Washington .......: 36 38 36 100 95 : Other States .....: 27 40 37 137 93 : United States ....: 1,549 1,625 1,516 98 93 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During February 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :February 2014 : January 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 9 4 400 44 California .......: 3 5 7 233 140 Colorado .........: 10 5 5 50 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 2 200 200 Iowa .............: 2 2 1 50 50 Kansas ...........: 10 15 10 100 67 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 15 15 15 100 100 Oklahoma .........: 2 1 2 100 200 South Dakota .....: 3 3 1 33 33 Texas ............: 20 15 10 50 67 Washington .......: 2 2 2 100 100 : Other States .....: 1 3 2 200 67 : United States ....: 71 77 62 87 81 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.7 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 54,000 head, ranging from 0 to 97,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 20 times and has been below the latest estimate 3 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.6 1.0 54 0 97 3 20 : Placements ...................: 1.3 2.2 15 1 55 10 14 : Marketings ...................: 1.0 1.7 10 0 47 0 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Evan Schulz - Sheep and Goats ................ (202) 720-6147 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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