Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released November 22, 2013, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Down 6 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.6 million head on November 1, 2013. The inventory was 6 percent below November 1, 2012. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.39 million, 10 percent above 2012. Net placements were 2.32 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 720,000, 600-699 pounds were 584,000, 700-799 pounds were 510,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 580,000. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.86 million, 1 percent above 2012. Other disappearance totaled 75,000 during October, 4 percent below 2012. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: November 1, 2012 and 2013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2012 : 2013 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed October 1 ......................: 10,989 10,144 92 Placed on feed during October ..........: 2,180 2,394 110 Fed cattle marketed during October .....: 1,837 1,856 101 Other disappearance during October .....: 78 75 96 On feed November 1 .....................: 11,254 10,607 94 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: October 1, 2012 and 2013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2012 : 2013 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed September 1 ....................: 10,647 9,876 93 Placed on feed during September ........: 2,004 2,025 101 Fed cattle marketed during September ...: 1,598 1,695 106 Other disappearance during September ...: 64 62 97 On feed October 1 ......................: 10,989 10,144 92 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2012 and 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : November 1, 2013 : : :-------------------------------------------- State :November 1, 2012 : October 1, 2013 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 265 268 270 102 101 California .......: 480 500 505 105 101 Colorado .........: 1,030 870 950 92 109 Idaho ............: 240 210 220 92 105 Iowa .............: 590 560 590 100 105 Kansas ...........: 2,220 2,000 2,050 92 103 Nebraska .........: 2,480 2,210 2,370 96 107 Oklahoma .........: 345 285 270 78 95 South Dakota .....: 220 180 200 91 111 Texas ............: 2,670 2,460 2,530 95 103 Washington .......: 248 184 203 82 110 : Other States .....: 466 417 449 96 108 : United States ....: 11,254 10,144 10,607 94 105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2012 and 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2013 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2012 :September 2013: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 19 23 28 147 122 California .......: 62 50 61 98 122 Colorado .........: 195 190 230 118 121 Idaho ............: 55 62 56 102 90 Iowa .............: 146 101 128 88 127 Kansas ...........: 380 390 470 124 121 Nebraska .........: 590 520 630 107 121 Oklahoma .........: 65 67 65 100 97 South Dakota .....: 71 43 59 83 137 Texas ............: 450 480 530 118 110 Washington .......: 74 37 59 80 159 : Other States .....: 73 62 78 107 126 : United States ....: 2,180 2,025 2,394 110 118 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2012 and 2013 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 65 80 45 50 35 45 50 55 195 230 Kansas ...........: 80 90 95 120 120 140 85 120 380 470 Nebraska .........: 190 170 130 170 80 90 190 200 590 630 Texas ............: 165 190 125 125 100 150 60 65 450 530 : Other States .....: 180 190 110 119 100 85 175 140 565 534 : United States ....: 680 720 505 584 435 510 560 580 2,180 2,394 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 40 35 20 20 55 50 110 85 225 190 Kansas ...........: 80 70 85 85 105 120 105 115 375 390 Nebraska .........: 90 75 60 70 100 105 220 270 470 520 Texas ............: 185 185 130 110 100 115 65 70 480 480 : Other States .....: 120 110 60 50 84 90 190 195 454 445 : United States ....: 515 475 355 335 444 480 690 735 2,004 2,025 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2012 and 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2013 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2012 :September 2013: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 25 20 25 100 125 California .......: 54 53 52 96 98 Colorado .........: 160 145 145 91 100 Idaho ............: 44 41 45 102 110 Iowa .............: 143 89 96 67 108 Kansas ...........: 365 355 400 110 113 Nebraska .........: 425 390 455 107 117 Oklahoma .........: 54 60 78 144 130 South Dakota .....: 45 32 38 84 119 Texas ............: 440 430 440 100 102 Washington .......: 38 36 39 103 108 : Other States .....: 44 44 43 98 98 : United States ....: 1,837 1,695 1,856 101 109 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2012 and 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2013 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2012 :September 2013: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 3 2 4 133 200 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 3 2 2 67 100 Kansas ...........: 25 15 20 80 133 Nebraska .........: 15 10 15 100 150 Oklahoma .........: 1 2 2 200 100 South Dakota .....: 1 1 1 100 100 Texas ............: 20 20 20 100 100 Washington .......: 1 1 1 100 100 : Other States .....: 2 2 3 150 150 : United States ....: 78 62 75 96 121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 11 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 5 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 5 States include Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.6 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 4,000 head, ranging from 0 to 35,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 3 times and has been below the latest estimate 3 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent ------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.1 0.2 4 0 35 3 3 : Placements ...................: 0.3 0.4 2 0 20 4 3 : Marketings ...................: 0.2 0.4 1 0 20 3 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Sheep and Goats ........ (202) 720-4751 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Tiffany Hora - Livestock Slaughter ........... (515) 284-4340 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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