Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released November 18, 2016, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.7 million head on November 1, 2016. The inventory was 1 percent below November 1, 2015. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.17 million head, 5 percent below 2015. Net placements were 2.11 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 610,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 525,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 471,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 565,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.71 million head, 5 percent above 2015. Other disappearance totaled 57,000 head during October, 24 percent below 2015. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: November 1, 2015 and 2016 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2015 : 2016 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed October 1 ......................: 10,228 10,256 100 Placed on feed during October ..........: 2,286 2,171 95 Fed cattle marketed during October .....: 1,630 1,705 105 Other disappearance during October .....: 75 57 76 On feed November 1 .....................: 10,809 10,665 99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: October 1, 2015 and 2016 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2015 : 2016 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed September 1 ....................: 9,986 10,135 101 Placed on feed during September ........: 1,941 1,895 98 Fed cattle marketed during September ...: 1,642 1,732 105 Other disappearance during September ...: 57 42 74 On feed October 1 ......................: 10,228 10,256 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : November 1, 2016 : : :-------------------------------------------- State :November 1, 2015 : October 1, 2016 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 243 263 253 104 96 California .......: 455 415 420 92 101 Colorado .........: 880 850 910 103 107 Idaho ............: 230 240 250 109 104 Iowa .............: 640 570 600 94 105 Kansas ...........: 2,150 2,220 2,240 104 101 Minnesota ........: 151 118 142 94 120 Nebraska .........: 2,450 2,160 2,320 95 107 Oklahoma .........: 270 290 295 109 102 South Dakota .....: 240 210 240 100 114 Texas ............: 2,580 2,450 2,490 97 102 Washington .......: 205 185 195 95 105 : Other States .....: 315 285 310 98 109 : United States ....: 10,809 10,256 10,665 99 104 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2015 :September 2016: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 23 14 14 61 100 California .......: 38 52 46 121 88 Colorado .........: 195 225 205 105 91 Idaho ............: 58 58 50 86 86 Iowa .............: 156 79 129 83 163 Kansas ...........: 445 420 390 88 93 Minnesota ........: 30 22 39 130 177 Nebraska .........: 645 470 615 95 131 Oklahoma .........: 61 48 63 103 131 South Dakota .....: 75 43 71 95 165 Texas ............: 460 385 445 97 116 Washington .......: 50 40 50 100 125 : Other States .....: 50 39 54 108 138 : United States ....: 2,286 1,895 2,171 95 115 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 55 55 45 45 30 35 65 70 195 205 Kansas ...........: 80 65 100 95 115 115 150 115 445 390 Nebraska .........: 170 200 155 145 80 95 240 175 645 615 Texas ............: 145 105 110 115 130 145 75 80 460 445 : Other States .....: 195 185 120 125 76 81 150 125 541 516 : United States ....: 645 610 530 525 431 471 680 565 2,286 2,171 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 : 2015 : 2016 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 30 25 15 20 40 50 125 130 210 225 Kansas ...........: 60 60 80 80 120 130 140 150 400 420 Nebraska .........: 60 55 50 45 85 80 315 290 510 470 Texas ............: 150 105 100 105 105 115 75 60 430 385 : Other States .....: 105 100 45 50 66 75 175 170 391 395 : United States ....: 405 345 290 300 416 450 830 800 1,941 1,895 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2015 :September 2016: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 19 21 23 121 110 California .......: 38 40 39 103 98 Colorado .........: 140 170 140 100 82 Idaho ............: 47 41 39 83 95 Iowa .............: 113 87 96 85 110 Kansas ...........: 300 360 350 117 97 Minnesota ........: 16 22 14 88 64 Nebraska .........: 445 405 445 100 110 Oklahoma .........: 45 57 57 127 100 South Dakota .....: 39 47 40 103 85 Texas ............: 360 415 395 110 95 Washington .......: 39 34 39 100 115 : Other States .....: 29 33 28 97 85 : United States ....: 1,630 1,732 1,705 105 98 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2015 and 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2016 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2015 :September 2016: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 5 2 2 40 100 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 1 2 1 100 50 Iowa .............: 3 2 3 100 150 Kansas ...........: 15 10 20 133 200 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 20 5 10 50 200 Oklahoma .........: 1 1 1 100 100 South Dakota .....: 1 1 1 100 100 Texas ............: 20 10 10 50 100 Washington .......: 1 1 1 100 100 : Other States .....: 1 1 1 100 100 : United States ....: 75 42 57 76 136 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by Regional Field Offices. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.7 million head by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 9,000 head, ranging from 0 to 62,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 3 times and has been below the latest estimate 9 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent ------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.2 0.3 9 0 62 9 3 : Placements ...................: 0.4 0.8 4 0 28 11 1 : Marketings ...................: 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 David Colwell - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-8784 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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