Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released August 22, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Down 2 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 9.8 million head on August 1, 2014. The inventory was 2 percent below August 1, 2013. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.56 million, 7 percent below 2013. Net placements were 1.50 million head. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 425,000, 600-699 pounds were 260,000, 700-799 pounds were 355,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 520,000. For the month of July placements are the lowest since the series began in 1996. Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.79 million, 9 percent below 2013. July marketings are the lowest since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 63,000 during July, 2 percent below 2013. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: August 1, 2013 and 2014 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2013 : 2014 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed July 1 .........................: 10,375 10,127 98 Placed on feed during July .............: 1,684 1,560 93 Fed cattle marketed during July ........: 1,970 1,787 91 Other disappearance during July ........: 64 63 98 On feed August 1 .......................: 10,025 9,837 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: July 1, 2013 and 2014 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2013 : 2014 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed June 1 .........................: 10,767 10,594 98 Placed on feed during June .............: 1,551 1,455 94 Fed cattle marketed during June ........: 1,880 1,847 98 Other disappearance during June ........: 63 75 119 On feed July 1 .........................: 10,375 10,127 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : August 1, 2014 : : :-------------------------------------------- State : August 1, 2013 : July 1, 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 262 272 262 100 96 California .......: 515 435 420 82 97 Colorado .........: 870 870 810 93 93 Idaho ............: 185 190 185 100 97 Iowa .............: 560 620 600 107 97 Kansas ...........: 2,000 1,900 1,900 95 100 Minnesota ........: 109 122 116 106 95 Nebraska .........: 2,080 2,260 2,160 104 96 Oklahoma .........: 285 255 240 84 94 South Dakota .....: 180 210 190 106 90 Texas ............: 2,490 2,490 2,470 99 99 Washington .......: 189 193 189 100 98 : Other States .....: 300 310 295 98 95 : United States ....: 10,025 10,127 9,837 98 97 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During July 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : July 2013 : June 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 23 20 23 100 115 California .......: 57 45 39 68 87 Colorado .........: 120 95 90 75 95 Idaho ............: 39 26 37 95 142 Iowa .............: 48 54 56 117 104 Kansas ...........: 425 315 400 94 127 Minnesota ........: 9 15 10 111 67 Nebraska .........: 370 375 375 101 100 Oklahoma .........: 45 37 32 71 86 South Dakota .....: 19 31 20 105 65 Texas ............: 450 370 410 91 111 Washington .......: 41 37 37 90 100 : Other States .....: 38 35 31 82 89 : United States ....: 1,684 1,455 1,560 93 107 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During July :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 30 25 20 15 30 20 40 30 120 90 Kansas ...........: 60 80 75 70 140 110 150 140 425 400 Nebraska .........: 45 55 55 50 90 85 180 185 370 375 Texas ............: 165 185 75 85 125 85 85 55 450 410 : Other States .....: 90 80 45 40 60 55 124 110 319 285 : United States ....: 390 425 270 260 445 355 579 520 1,684 1,560 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During June :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 30 30 15 15 30 20 40 30 115 95 Kansas ...........: 50 65 55 60 100 80 145 110 350 315 Nebraska .........: 30 55 45 50 80 80 175 190 330 375 Texas ............: 125 155 75 75 135 85 90 55 425 370 : Other States .....: 80 95 36 45 65 55 150 105 331 300 : United States ....: 315 400 226 245 410 320 600 490 1,551 1,455 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During July 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : July 2013 : June 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 27 22 26 96 118 California .......: 55 40 47 85 118 Colorado .........: 165 150 145 88 97 Idaho ............: 48 39 41 85 105 Iowa .............: 64 70 74 116 106 Kansas ...........: 430 420 390 91 93 Minnesota ........: 24 15 15 63 100 Nebraska .........: 450 500 465 103 93 Oklahoma .........: 64 46 46 72 100 South Dakota .....: 37 45 39 105 87 Texas ............: 510 420 415 81 99 Washington .......: 54 44 40 74 91 : Other States .....: 42 36 44 105 122 : United States ....: 1,970 1,847 1,787 91 97 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During July 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : July 2013 : June 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 7 700 700 California .......: 2 5 7 350 140 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 1 2 1 100 50 Iowa .............: 4 4 2 50 50 Kansas ...........: 15 15 10 67 67 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 20 25 10 50 40 Oklahoma .........: 1 1 1 100 100 South Dakota .....: 2 1 1 50 100 Texas ............: 10 10 15 150 150 Washington .......: 1 1 1 100 100 : Other States .....: 1 4 2 200 50 : United States ....: 64 75 63 98 84 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.8 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 9,000 head, ranging from 0 to 34,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 8 times and has been below the latest estimate 7 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.1 0.2 9 0 34 7 8 : Placements ...................: 1.6 2.8 16 0 88 4 12 : Marketings ...................: 1.3 2.3 14 0 67 0 12 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Tiffany Hora - Livestock Slaughter ........... (515) 284-4340 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Vacant - Sheep and Goats...................... (202) 720-3570 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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