Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released November 21, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up Slightly Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.6 million head on November 1, 2014. The inventory was slightly above November 1, 2013. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.36 million, 1 percent below 2013. Net placements were 2.26 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 690,000, 600-699 pounds were 570,000, 700-799 pounds were 462,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 635,000. For the month of October, placements are the second lowest since the series began in 1996. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.69 million, 8 percent below 2013. October marketings are the lowest since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 97,000 during October, 28 percent above 2013. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: November 1, 2013 and 2014 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2013 : 2014 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed October 1 ......................: 10,110 10,058 99 Placed on feed during October ..........: 2,378 2,357 99 Fed cattle marketed during October .....: 1,827 1,685 92 Other disappearance during October .....: 76 97 128 On feed November 1 .....................: 10,585 10,633 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: October 1, 2013 and 2014 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2013 : 2014 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed September 1 ....................: 9,876 9,799 99 Placed on feed during September ........: 1,988 2,007 101 Fed cattle marketed during September ...: 1,692 1,683 99 Other disappearance during September ...: 62 65 105 On feed October 1 ......................: 10,110 10,058 99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : November 1, 2014 : : :-------------------------------------------- State :November 1, 2013 : October 1, 2014 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 270 252 250 93 99 California .......: 495 415 420 85 101 Colorado .........: 950 840 900 95 107 Idaho ............: 220 205 220 100 107 Iowa .............: 590 560 590 100 105 Kansas ...........: 2,050 2,010 2,080 101 103 Minnesota ........: 117 114 132 113 116 Nebraska .........: 2,370 2,240 2,450 103 109 Oklahoma .........: 270 245 260 96 106 South Dakota .....: 200 190 230 115 121 Texas ............: 2,520 2,470 2,550 101 103 Washington .......: 203 212 226 111 107 : Other States .....: 330 305 325 98 107 : United States ....: 10,585 10,058 10,633 100 106 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2013 :September 2014: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 28 20 22 79 110 California .......: 55 43 53 96 123 Colorado .........: 230 200 210 91 105 Idaho ............: 56 64 61 109 95 Iowa .............: 131 99 132 101 133 Kansas ...........: 470 400 420 89 105 Minnesota ........: 25 20 30 120 150 Nebraska .........: 630 520 660 105 127 Oklahoma .........: 65 55 60 92 109 South Dakota .....: 59 50 84 142 168 Texas ............: 520 445 520 100 117 Washington .......: 59 46 51 86 111 : Other States .....: 50 45 54 108 120 : United States ....: 2,378 2,007 2,357 99 117 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During October :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 80 55 50 45 45 45 55 65 230 210 Kansas ...........: 90 85 120 100 140 115 120 120 470 420 Nebraska .........: 170 170 170 165 90 95 200 230 630 660 Texas ............: 190 180 120 130 145 130 65 80 520 520 : Other States .....: 190 200 118 130 85 77 135 140 528 547 : United States ....: 720 690 578 570 505 462 575 635 2,378 2,357 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 35 35 20 20 50 45 85 100 190 200 Kansas ...........: 70 70 85 80 120 115 115 135 390 400 Nebraska .........: 75 75 70 65 105 95 260 285 510 520 Texas ............: 180 170 110 115 110 100 70 60 470 445 : Other States .....: 105 110 50 60 90 82 183 190 428 442 : United States ....: 465 460 335 340 475 437 713 770 1,988 2,007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2013 :September 2014: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 25 24 21 84 88 California .......: 50 38 40 80 105 Colorado .........: 145 155 145 100 94 Idaho ............: 45 38 45 100 118 Iowa .............: 89 114 100 112 88 Kansas ...........: 400 325 320 80 98 Minnesota ........: 10 18 11 110 61 Nebraska .........: 445 400 430 97 108 Oklahoma .........: 78 54 43 55 80 South Dakota .....: 38 42 43 113 102 Texas ............: 430 410 420 98 102 Washington .......: 39 32 35 90 109 : Other States .....: 33 33 32 97 97 : United States ....: 1,827 1,683 1,685 92 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2013 and 2014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During October 2014 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : October 2013 :September 2014: : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 3 300 300 California .......: 5 5 8 160 160 Colorado .........: 5 5 5 100 100 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 2 5 2 100 40 Kansas ...........: 20 15 30 150 200 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 15 10 20 133 200 Oklahoma .........: 2 1 2 100 200 South Dakota .....: 1 3 1 100 33 Texas ............: 20 15 20 100 133 Washington .......: 1 1 2 200 200 : Other States .....: 2 2 2 100 100 : United States ....: 76 65 97 128 149 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.6 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 9,000 head, ranging from 0 to 34,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 8 times and has been below the latest estimate 7 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.1 0.2 9 0 34 7 8 : Placements ...................: 1.7 2.9 17 0 88 2 14 : Marketings ...................: 1.5 2.5 17 0 67 0 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Evan Schulz - Sheep and Goats ................ (202) 720-6147 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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