Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released May 22, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.6 million head on May 1, 2015. The inventory was 1 percent above May 1, 2014. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.55 million, 5 percent below 2014. Net placements were 1.48 million head. During April, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 320,000, 600-699 pounds were 240,000, 700-799 pounds were 348,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 640,000. Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled 1.64 million, 8 percent below 2014. April marketings are the lowest since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 66,000 during April, 20 percent below 2014. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: May 1, 2014 and 2015 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2014 : 2015 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed April 1 ........................: 10,792 10,797 100 Placed on feed during April ............: 1,623 1,548 95 Fed cattle marketed during April .......: 1,778 1,639 92 Other disappearance during April .......: 83 66 80 On feed May 1 ..........................: 10,554 10,640 101 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: April 1, 2014 and 2015 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2014 : 2015 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed March 1 ........................: 10,716 10,688 100 Placed on feed during March ............: 1,801 1,809 100 Fed cattle marketed during March .......: 1,660 1,631 98 Other disappearance during March .......: 65 69 106 On feed April 1 ........................: 10,792 10,797 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : May 1, 2015 : : :-------------------------------------------- State : May 1, 2014 : April 1, 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 head -------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 277 241 240 87 100 California .......: 450 445 450 100 101 Colorado .........: 940 890 900 96 101 Idaho ............: 205 230 235 115 102 Iowa .............: 660 670 660 100 99 Kansas ...........: 2,010 2,110 2,060 102 98 Minnesota ........: 137 146 145 106 99 Nebraska .........: 2,460 2,530 2,500 102 99 Oklahoma .........: 255 285 270 106 95 South Dakota .....: 220 235 240 109 102 Texas ............: 2,430 2,470 2,410 99 98 Washington .......: 190 225 230 121 102 : Other States .....: 320 320 300 94 94 : United States ....: 10,554 10,797 10,640 101 99 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During April 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : April 2014 : March 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 26 25 24 92 96 California .......: 57 55 49 86 89 Colorado .........: 130 150 145 112 97 Idaho ............: 27 30 30 111 100 Iowa .............: 69 90 63 91 70 Kansas ...........: 325 410 315 97 77 Minnesota ........: 16 23 11 69 48 Nebraska .........: 420 440 390 93 89 Oklahoma .........: 43 49 34 79 69 South Dakota .....: 28 33 28 100 85 Texas ............: 420 420 385 92 92 Washington .......: 27 39 42 156 108 : Other States .....: 35 45 32 91 71 : United States ....: 1,623 1,809 1,548 95 86 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During April :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 25 25 25 25 35 35 45 60 130 145 Kansas ...........: 60 55 50 50 90 80 125 130 325 315 Nebraska .........: 65 50 65 55 95 85 195 200 420 390 Texas ............: 140 105 70 70 110 95 100 115 420 385 : Other States .....: 90 85 40 40 63 53 135 135 328 313 : United States ....: 380 320 250 240 393 348 600 640 1,623 1,548 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During March :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .........: 35 30 30 25 50 40 50 55 165 150 Kansas ...........: 65 60 55 65 110 110 160 175 390 410 Nebraska .........: 55 55 65 65 105 100 185 220 410 440 Texas ............: 170 115 90 70 125 120 85 115 470 420 : Other States .....: 100 105 50 50 76 79 140 155 366 389 : United States ....: 425 365 290 275 466 449 620 720 1,801 1,809 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During April 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : April 2014 : March 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 25 21 24 96 114 California .......: 67 46 40 60 87 Colorado .........: 130 140 120 92 86 Idaho ............: 26 29 24 92 83 Iowa .............: 76 79 72 95 91 Kansas ...........: 385 370 355 92 96 Minnesota ........: 13 21 11 85 52 Nebraska .........: 415 395 405 98 103 Oklahoma .........: 62 38 48 77 126 South Dakota .....: 30 32 21 70 66 Texas ............: 480 385 435 91 113 Washington .......: 36 28 35 97 125 : Other States .....: 33 47 49 148 104 : United States ....: 1,778 1,631 1,639 92 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During April 2015 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State : April 2014 : March 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 6 1 100 17 California .......: 15 4 4 27 100 Colorado .........: 10 10 15 150 150 Idaho ............: 1 1 1 100 100 Iowa .............: 3 1 1 33 100 Kansas ...........: 20 10 10 50 100 Minnesota ........: 1 1 1 100 100 Nebraska .........: 15 15 15 100 100 Oklahoma .........: 1 1 1 100 100 South Dakota .....: 3 1 2 67 200 Texas ............: 10 15 10 100 67 Washington .......: 1 1 2 200 200 : Other States .....: 2 3 3 150 100 : United States ....: 83 69 66 80 96 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.6 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 51,000 head, ranging from 0 to 97,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 18 times and has been below the latest estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : Number on feed ...............: 0.6 1.0 51 0 97 4 18 : Placements ...................: 1.1 2.0 14 0 55 11 12 : Marketings ...................: 0.7 1.2 6 0 40 0 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Vacant - Sheep and Goats ..................... (202) 720-3570 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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