U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board January 19, 1996 Release of this report, scheduled for December 22, 1995, was delayed due to furloughs in the Commerce Department, which provides data for this report. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FAU-1295. Subcriptions to the printed version of this update are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #FAU, $20/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- January-October Exports - U.S. agricultural exports for January-October 1995 of $45.2 billion were 24 percent higher than in 1994. Grains and feeds, cotton, oilseeds and vegetable oils, beef, and poultry showed the largest gains, but high world prices prevailed for most commodities. October exports totaled $5.14 billion, 18 percent higher than October 1994. October imports were $2.56 billion, and the trade balance was $2.57 billion. January-October corn shipments totaled 50.3 million tons, nearly double the same period in 1994. At $5.9 billion, value was $3 billion higher than last year. Exports continued to benefit from strong world demand and lower competitor supplies. Japan bought 13.4 million tons of U.S. corn during the 10-month period, Korea took 7.8 million tons, and Taiwan 5.2 million tons. October exports totaled 5.3 million tons, 1.8 million tons greater than October 1994. Year-to-date wheat shipments of 26.8 million tons were slightly ahead of the same period in 1994. Value reached $4.4 billion, $1.1 billion over 1994. Egypt bought 4.3 million tons during January-October, followed by China with 2.6 million, and Japan with 2.4 million tons. October shipments totaled 3.2 million tons, 432,000 tons above October 1994. Japan, China, Korea, and Taiwan were the major buyers. Soybean exports totaled 18 million tons through October 1995, 4.9 million tons above last year. As a result, export value jumped 27 percent to $4.1 billion. The European Union (EU) at 7.1 million tons, Japan at 3.2 million tons, and Taiwan at 2 million tons rounded out the top buyers. October exports totaled 2.1 million tons, 612,000 tons fewer than October 1994. The EU, Japan, Taiwan, and Indonesia led buyers. Global vegetable oil demand remained high. Imports - During 1995, agricultural imports through October reached $25 billion, 14 percent higher than in 1994. Year-to-date values for rubber, coffee, and cattle gained. But world coffee prices continued to decline and rubber unit values also trended down. Horticultural products continued to show gains, with the exception of nuts. Fresh fruit import value gained 15 percent over last year to nearly $1 billion, and fresh vegetables increased 20 percent to $1.4 billion. Year-to-date imports of sugar, vegetable oil, and nursery products rose. Mexico's and Chile's seasonal shipments of winter fresh vegetables began in October; as did seasonal imports of fresh apples, melons, and berries. (Tom Capehart, 202-219-1262) Fiscal 1996 Exports Forecast At $58 Billion - The fiscal 1996 U.S. agricultural export forecast was revised upwards by $3.5 billion from the August forecast of $54.5 billion. The new forecast of $58 billion is $3.9 billion higher than record fiscal 1995 exports of $54.1. Tight global supplies of wheat and coarse grains are expected to drive prices up, contributing $1.6 billion to the new grains and feeds forecast of $19.1 billion on slightly lower volume. The forecast for oilseeds and products exports is $9.9 billion, $1 billion over the previous forecast. Red meats and hides accounted for $1 billion of the animal products' advance to $8.8 billion. Red meats alone are forecast up $900 million to $4.8 billion. Pacific Rim demand is behind much of the increase in red meat exports. Cotton was lowered to $2.5 billion, $1 billion less than fiscal 1995 exports, and $400 million below the August forecast. Foreign production is expected to recover to a greater extent than previously anticipated, and overall world trade has contracted slightly. The agricultural import forecast remains at $29 billion, $500 million less than fiscal 1995's $29.5 billion. Lower world coffee prices are the major factor in the decrease. The coffee import forecast is reduced $200 million to $3 billion, $400 million less than fiscal 1995's $3.4 billion. This report was delayed due to the recent shutdown of the Department of Commerce. The January U.S. Agricultural Trade Update containing November data will be published 2 days after the Department of Commerce releases the November trade statistics; currently scheduled for February 5. END-END-END