U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE July 21, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FAU-0795. Subcriptions to the printed version of this update are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #FAU, $20/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- AGRICULTURAL TRADE BALANCE DOWN SLIGHTLY IN MAY - U.S. agricultural imports and exports each declined, and the May trade surplus declined to $1.6 billion, 18 percent below April. The 8-month (October 1994-May 1995) surplus was $5 billion higher than a year earlier at $17.2 billion (table 3). EXPORTS - At $4.2 billion, May exports were 19 percent higher than May 1994. Fiscal year-to-date exports continued a record-breaking trend, reaching $37.1 billion, 24 percent over the same period in fiscal 1994. Horticultural crops continued to outpace last year with export value up for vegetables, fruits, wine, and nuts. Live animal and dairy product declines were the exception in animal products trade as sharp gains were seen in poultry meats, fats and oils, and hides. Beef and pork export values were also up. Cotton volume declined in May, but year-to-date volume was up 59 percent at 1.7 million tons. Cumulative cotton export value nearly doubled compared with last year. May wheat exports totaled 2 million tons, 9 percent below May 1994. China was again the largest buyer at 402,000 tons and Egypt raised its imports of U.S. wheat to 328,000 tons. Japan followed with 311,000 tons. October-May shipments of 20.8 million tons trailed last year by over 500,000 tons. Corn exports jumped to 5.3 million tons in May, 3.4 million higher than May 1994. Asia accounted for 3.5 million tons as Japan imported 1.5 million tons, and Korea and Taiwan took just over 650,000 tons each. October-April shipments of 37.8 million tons were 15 million tons ahead of a year earlier. Soybean volume fell 44 percent to 1.2 million tons in May as shipments of the 1994 crop subsided, but were still 64 percent above May last year. Fiscal 1995 year-to-date shipments reached 18.3 million tons, 5.4 million tons greater than the same period last year. Strong global demand for vegetable oils continues to push soybean exports. Japan took 310,000 tons, and the European Union lowered its U.S. purchases to 220,000 tons. Taiwan imported 260,000 tons. Tobacco exports have risen slightly while imports have fallen precipitously this fiscal year. October-May export value was 7 percent ahead of last year at $1.1 billion, while imports plummeted 53 percent to just above $300 million. Beginning in January 1994, the United States imposed a limit of 25 percent on the quantity of foreign leaf allowed in U.S.-produced cigarettes. Previously, the foreign content had reached 45 percent. As a result of the limit, domestic demand for U.S. tobacco increased; and less was available for foreign markets in fiscal 1994. However, a larger production quota for the 1995 crop year enabled domestic demand to be satisfied even as exports increased. LOWER IMPORTS - May agricultural imports rose nearly $100 million from April to $2.6 billion, 18 percent higher than May 1994. Total October-May imports reached $19.9 million, 13 percent higher than a year earlier. Noncompetitive imports surged 54 percent over May 1994 and year-to-date value was up 49 percent. Coffee and rubber imports continue to outpace last year. Competitive imports have been relatively stable, because of higher horticultural import value and lower value for beef and pork. Vegetable oil import value continued to gain as rising prices boosted unit values in a tight world market. Record U.S. orange juice production lowered imports but apple juice import value surged compared with last year as reduced production in Poland, the largest exporter, and strong domestic demand in South America boosted world prices. (Tom Capehart, 202-219-1262) EXPORT SHARE OF PRODUCTION STEADY - The share, by value, of U.S. farm produc- tion exported in fiscal 1994 was steady at 17 percent, the same as the past 3 years. By volume, the share of production for grains, except wheat, many horticultural products, beef and poultry, and cotton, increased. Soybeans, tobacco, and peanut export shares decreased. In absolute terms, high-value products (HVP) have garnered an increasing share of export value while the share of high-valued production exported has remained steady at 9 percent for the third year in a row. Bulk commodity export value fell in fiscal 1994 as strong domestic demand and high prices limited exports. Bulk commodities' export share of production plunged to 25 percent in fiscal 1994, from 33 percent in fiscal 1993. END-END-END