U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE May 22, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FAU-0595. Subcriptions to the printed version of this update are available from the ERS- NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #FAU, $20/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Record Cumulative Surplus - Half-way into fiscal 1995, gains in most major agricultural export categories boosted the October 1994-March 1995 surplus $3.3 billion over last year to $13.5 billion, breaking the previous record set in 1981. The March 1995 surplus was $2.3 billion, exceeding March 1994 by 43 percent (table 3). Mid-Year Exports Unsurpassed - Advancing 5 percent from February to $5 billion, March export value broke monthly records for the third time this fiscal year. At $28.4 billion, October-March exports were the highest ever, 23 percent over last year. Cotton gained $1.2 billion over the same period last year, with low production in competing countries driving export volume despite record-high prices. Oilseeds surged by almost $1 billion. Coarse grain exports grew by nearly $500 million, led by corn. Vegetable oil export volume exceeded the same period last year by 81 percent. Despite high world production, shipments to China (500,000 tons so far this year) boosted exports. Beef export value was 18 percent ahead of this time last year, as exports to Asian markets expanded. Poultry meat shipments advanced on the weak dollar and economic growth in East Asia, and strong demand in the former Soviet Union. March wheat exports totaled 2.7 million tons, about the same as March 1994. China imported 575,000 tons of U.S. wheat in March, making it the largest buyer. At 462,000 tons, Egypt took less than in February. Pakistan purchased over 200,000 tons. Japan reduced shipments to 154,000 tons. The Philippines, Thailand, Russia, and Korea were also major buyers. October-March volume was 4 percent below last year at 16.4 million tons. March corn exports of 5 million tons edged up from February. Tight supplies cut Chinese exports, opening up additional markets for the United States. Japan and Korea continued substantial imports at 1.3 million tons and 824,000 tons, respectively in March. Taiwan imported 680,000 tons and China took 325,000 tons. October-March shipments of 28.4 million tons were 52 percent ahead of the same period last year. March soybean shipments fell 200,000 tons to 2.3 million tons, 800 tons ahead of March 1994. The European Union imported 1.2 million tons in March, followed by Japan at 267,000 tons. Taiwan, Mexico, and Korea were also major buyers. Despite record 1994/95 production in South America, low world prices pushed October-March U.S. soybean export volume to the highest level since 1979. At 14.9 million tons fiscal 1995 year-to-date shipments were 33 percent ahead of the same period in fiscal 1994. Upward Trend for Imports - Coffee continued to propel fiscal year-to-date import value to new highs as reduced harvests in Latin America and Africa boosted world prices and low stocks forced roasters to maintain imports despite high prices. Rubber gained $250 million over the same period in fiscal 1994 as short world supplies boosted prices. Competitive imports advanced 2 percent in March over February, reaching $10.6 billion for October-March. Vegetables, fresh fruits, and cattle continue to be the strongest growing import commodities. Year-to-date fresh vegetable import value was up 29 percent, filling supply gaps resulting from low Florida production of tomatoes and other vegetables. Total agricultural imports for the first half of fiscal 1995 were $14.9 billion, up 12 percent over the same period last year. (Tom Capehart, 202-219-1262) State Export Shares in Fiscal 1994 - California exported an estimated $6.4 billion worth of agricultural commodities to remain the leading exporter for the 10th consecutive year (table 4). Fruits, tree nuts, and vegetables accounted for 65 percent of California's exports. Illinois was second, with increased exports of feed grains and soybeans. Texas ranked third, followed by Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Indiana, Washington, Minnesota, and Arkansas. States that usually export a large portion of wheat, feed grains, and soybeans experienced large export declines in 1994 because of production shortfalls caused by the 1993 summer flooding. High-value product exports rose 8 percent to a record $25.9 billion in fiscal 1994, leading to gains in export share for States that usually export fruits, vegetables, and animal products. (Joel Greene, 202-219-0816) END-END-END