Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released March 9, 2021, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Up Less Than 1 Percent from February Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2020-2021 season is 4.62 million tons, up slightly from the previous forecast but down 11 percent from the 2019-2020 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 55.5 million boxes (2.50 million tons), is down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 18 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 22.5 million boxes (1.01 million tons), up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 24 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 33.0 million boxes (1.49 million tons), is down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 12 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 10.0 million boxes (400,000 tons), up 11 percent from both last month and the previous season. This results in a California all orange forecast of 52.0 million boxes (2.08 million tons), up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 2 percent from last season's final utilization. The forecast for Texas is carried forward from the previous forecast. This report was approved on March 9, 2021. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2019 and 2020................ 4 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2019-2020 and Forecasted March 1, 2021............................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 February Weather Summary................................................................................. 13 February Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 13 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of March 1 Crop Production Forecasts......................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2019 and 2020 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 acres -- ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons --- : For sugar : Florida ............: 397.0 409.0 42.8 44.3 16,992 18,119 Louisiana ..........: 442.0 461.0 27.7 32.9 12,243 15,167 Texas ..............: 31.3 33.4 33.6 31.5 1,052 1,052 : United States ......: 870.3 903.4 34.8 38.0 30,287 34,338 : For seed : Florida ............: 13.7 14.3 47.6 47.3 652 676 Louisiana ..........: 27.0 27.4 34.0 36.5 918 1,000 Texas ..............: 2.2 2.5 36.5 34.3 80 86 : United States ......: 42.9 44.2 38.5 39.9 1,650 1,762 : For sugar and seed : Florida ............: 410.7 423.3 43.0 44.4 17,644 18,795 Louisiana ..........: 469.0 488.4 28.1 33.1 13,161 16,167 Texas ..............: 33.5 35.9 33.8 31.7 1,132 1,138 : United States ......: 913.2 947.6 35.0 38.1 31,937 36,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2019-2020 and Forecasted March 1, 2021 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2019-2020 : 2020-2021 : 2019-2020 : 2020-2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 boxes ------ ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ..............: 53,300 52,000 2,132 2,080 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 3/ .: 44,300 42,000 1,772 1,680 Valencia ....................: 9,000 10,000 360 400 : Florida, all .................: 67,300 55,500 3,028 2,498 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 29,650 22,500 1,334 1,013 Valencia ....................: 37,650 33,000 1,694 1,485 : Texas, all 2/ ................: 1,340 1,500 57 64 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 1,150 1,300 49 55 Valencia ....................: 190 200 8 9 : United States, all ...........: 121,940 109,000 5,217 4,642 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 75,100 65,800 3,155 2,748 Valencia ....................: 46,840 43,200 2,062 1,894 : Grapefruit : California 2/ ................: 3,800 4,200 152 168 Florida, all .................: 4,850 4,600 207 196 Red .........................: 4,060 (NA) 173 (NA) White .......................: 790 (NA) 34 (NA) Texas 2/ .....................: 4,400 5,000 176 200 : United States ................: 13,050 13,800 535 564 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California 2/ ................: 22,000 23,000 880 920 Florida ......................: 1,020 1,050 48 50 : United States ................: 23,020 24,050 928 970 : Lemons 2/ : Arizona ......................: 1,800 1,900 72 76 California ...................: 25,700 24,000 1,028 960 : United States ................: 27,500 25,900 1,100 1,036 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and mid-season varieties in Florida and Texas. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,621 2,133 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 90,819 82,467 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,719 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 52,238 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 16,230 All other ............................: (NA) 36,008 Oats ...................................: 2,984 1,004 Proso millet ...........................: 609 484 Rice ...................................: 3,036 2,987 Rye ....................................: 1,955 330 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 5,880 5,095 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 239 Wheat, all .............................: 44,349 36,746 Winter ...............................: 30,415 31,991 23,024 Durum ................................: 1,684 1,662 Other spring .........................: 12,250 12,060 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1,825.0 1,789.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 305 296 Mustard seed ...........................: 97.0 91.4 Peanuts ................................: 1,664.2 1,615.8 Rapeseed ...............................: 11.2 10.1 Safflower ..............................: 136.0 126.7 Soybeans for beans .....................: 83,084 82,318 Sunflower ..............................: 1,718.7 1,665.7 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 12,092.5 8,701.5 Upland ...............................: 11,890.0 8,507.0 American Pima ........................: 202.5 194.5 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,162.2 1,142.3 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 947.6 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 198.1 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 269.8 262.9 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,740.0 1,676.5 Dry edible peas ........................: 999.0 973.0 Lentils ................................: 528.0 514.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 58.6 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 50.1 Potatoes ...............................: 921.0 914.1 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 17.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 77.5 165,324 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 172.0 14,182,479 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.5 137,729 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.43 126,812 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.27 53,067 All other ........................tons: 2.05 73,745 Oats ............................bushels: 65.1 65,355 Proso millet ....................bushels: 19.0 9,210 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,619 227,583 Rye .............................bushels: 34.9 11,532 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 73.2 372,960 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.1 3,125 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 49.7 1,825,820 Winter ........................bushels: 50.9 1,171,022 Durum .........................bushels: 41.4 68,808 Other spring ..................bushels: 48.6 585,990 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,931 3,454,950 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,587.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 19.3 5,706 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 895 81,770 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,796 6,133,900 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,971 19,910 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,167 147,800 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.2 4,135,477 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,790 2,982,410 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 825 14,953.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 813 14,401.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,362 552.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 29.4 33,618 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 38.1 36,100 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 1,966 389,413 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,625 4,273 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 1,966 32,963 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 2,234 21,733 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,442 7,411 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,770 103,810.3 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,372 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 816,367 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 99 4,984 Potatoes ............................cwt: 453 414,248 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 121 2,134 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,060,690 863,200 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,753,540 33,373,570 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,719,110 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 21,140,200 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,568,120 All other ....................: (NA) 14,572,080 Oats ...........................: 1,207,590 406,310 Proso millet ...................: 246,460 195,870 Rice ...........................: 1,228,640 1,208,810 Rye ............................: 791,170 133,550 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,379,580 2,061,900 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 96,720 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 17,947,600 14,870,740 Winter .......................: 12,308,650 12,946,440 9,317,580 Durum ........................: 681,500 672,590 Other spring .................: 4,957,450 4,880,560 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 738,560 723,990 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 123,430 119,790 Mustard seed ...................: 39,250 36,990 Peanuts ........................: 673,490 653,900 Rapeseed .......................: 4,530 4,090 Safflower ......................: 55,040 51,270 Soybeans for beans .............: 33,623,260 33,313,270 Sunflower ......................: 695,540 674,090 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,893,710 3,521,410 Upland .......................: 4,811,760 3,442,700 American Pima ................: 81,950 78,710 Sugarbeets .....................: 470,330 462,280 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 383,480 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 80,150 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 109,190 106,390 Dry edible beans ...............: 704,160 678,460 Dry edible peas ................: 404,290 393,760 Lentils ........................: 213,680 208,010 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 23,730 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 20,270 Potatoes .......................: 372,720 369,930 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,160 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.17 3,599,510 Corn for grain .........................: 10.79 360,251,560 Corn for silage ........................: 45.95 124,945,650 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.44 115,041,910 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.33 48,141,570 All other ............................: 4.59 66,900,340 Oats ...................................: 2.33 948,630 Proso millet ...........................: 1.07 208,880 Rice ...................................: 8.54 10,322,990 Rye ....................................: 2.19 292,930 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.59 9,473,620 Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.31 2,834,950 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.34 49,690,680 Winter ...............................: 3.42 31,870,000 Durum ................................: 2.78 1,872,650 Other spring .........................: 3.27 15,948,030 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.16 1,567,140 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 4,161,260 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.21 144,940 Mustard seed ...........................: 1.00 37,090 Peanuts ................................: 4.25 2,782,290 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.21 9,030 Safflower ..............................: 1.31 67,040 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.38 112,549,240 Sunflower ..............................: 2.01 1,352,800 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.92 3,255,630 Upland ...............................: 0.91 3,135,450 American Pima ........................: 1.53 120,180 Sugarbeets .............................: 65.97 30,497,740 Sugarcane ..............................: 85.40 32,749,370 Tobacco ................................: 2.20 176,630 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.82 193,820 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.20 1,495,180 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.50 985,790 Lentils ................................: 1.62 336,160 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 1.98 47,090 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 21,860 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 370,300 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.11 2,260 Potatoes ...............................: 50.79 18,789,970 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 970 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2020-2021 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 535 564 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,100 1,036 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 5,217 4,642 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 928 970 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,650.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 34,800 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 334,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 197.0 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 27,590 Cranberries .........................barrel: 8,970,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 7,180,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 645,500 Pears .................................tons: 800,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 3,000,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 71,000 Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 302,350 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 780,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2019-2020 and 2020-2021. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2020-2021 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 485,340 511,650 Lemons ....................................: 997,900 939,840 Oranges ...................................: 4,732,780 4,211,150 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 841,870 879,970 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,830,760 Apricots ..................................: 31,570 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 303,000 Cherries, Tart ............................: 89,360 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 12,510 Cranberries ...............................: 406,870 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 6,513,590 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 585,590 Pears .....................................: 725,750 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,360,780 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 64,410 Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 137,140 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 707,600 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2019-2020 and 2020-2021. February Weather Summary Two weeks of historically cold weather across the Plains, Midwest, and mid-South followed a previously mild winter, leading to livestock and dairy losses, along with potential damage to already drought-affected winter wheat that did not benefit from a protective snow cover. Deep South Texas bore a disproportionate share of the damage, as the coldest weather since December 1989 froze citrus and winter vegetables. In addition, the Arctic blast may have resulted in long-term injury to citrus trees in Texas and could adversely affect the next sugarcane harvest in both Louisiana and Texas. The severe cold wave, which began to overspread the Nation's mid-section during the weekend of February 6-7, was accompanied by two significant winter storms. Both systems followed a similar path into the Northwest and across the southern Plains and mid-South, causing widespread travel disruptions while delivering snow, sleet, and freezing rain. In Texas and neighboring areas, mid-month power outages caused a chain reaction of adverse impacts that included potable water shortages; frozen and broken water pipes; cattle and poultry deaths; and ornamental and greenhouse losses. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 10°F below normal in many locations across the Plains, mid-South, and upper Midwest. Cold air also seeped into the Northwest, but areas largely spared from the severe cold spell included California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest, as well as the Atlantic Coast States. February readings averaged more than 5°F above normal in parts of southern Florida. Across portions of the Great Plains, drought-along with potential impacts from extremely cold weather-left one-fifth to one-third of the winter wheat rated in very poor to poor condition by late February in several states, including Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas. Some of the most significant exposure of wheat to sub-zero temperatures occurred across the central Plains, along with minor production areas in northeastern Montana and parts of the western Dakotas. During the first 2 months of the year, drought coverage remained nearly steady at 45 to 47 percent of the Lower 48 States, according to the United States Drought Monitor, down slightly from a December 2020 peak of 49.6 percent. In February, significant improvement in the drought situation was mostly limited to a region stretching from the Northwest to the central Rockies. The central Plains also received some beneficial precipitation. Portions of the northern Plains and Southwest noted worsening drought. Notably, California's key watershed areas saw the return of drier-than-normal conditions, following late-January storminess. Meanwhile, the middle and southern Atlantic States received locally heavy precipitation, leading to lowland flooding. Toward month's end, excessive rainfall in the Kentucky River basin and environs contributed to moderate to major flooding, while a much broader swath stretching from northeastern Texas into the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley experienced minor flooding. February Agricultural Summary February was significantly cooler than average for most of the Nation's midsection. Temperatures averaged 9°F or more below normal for much of the Great Lakes, Great Plains, Midwest, and northern Texas. Much of the northern Rockies saw temperatures 12°F or more below normal. Parts of Montana experienced temperatures 15°F or more below average. Most of the eastern third of the Nation was cooler than normal, with the exception of Florida and Maine. During February, much of the mid and south-Atlantic received at least twice the normal amounts of precipitation. Above normal precipitation was also recorded in parts of the Great Lakes, Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Pacific Northwest, Rockies, Southeast, and Texas. Most of California, the Great Plains, Southwest, and Texas remained drier than normal for the month. Crop Comments Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2020 was estimated at 36.1 million tons, up 13 percent from 2019. Producers harvested 947,600 acres for sugar and seed during the 2020 crop year, up 4 percent from 2019. Yield for sugar and seed was estimated at 38.1 tons per acre, up 3.1 tons from 2019. Grapefruit: The United States 2020-2021 grapefruit crop is forecast at 564,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 5 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, expected production, at 4.60 million boxes (196,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 5 percent from last year. California and Texas grapefruit production forecast were carried forward from the previous forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 970,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 5 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 1.05 million boxes (50,000 tons) is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 3 percent from last season. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous forecast. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 3.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.8 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the March 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using oranges again as an example, changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20-years have averaged 184,000 tons, ranging from 8,000 tons to 733,000 tons. The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times. The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of March 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 3.9 6.8 184 8 733 8 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch......................................................... (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section................................................ (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather......................................................... (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Oats, Soybeans....................................................... (202) 690-3234 David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports............................. (202) 720-8800 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum..................................... (202) 720-5944 James Johanson - Barley, County Estimates, Hay...................................... (202) 690-8533 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet......................................... (202) 720-9526 Jean Porter - Rye, Wheat............................................................ (202) 720-8068 John Stephens - Peanuts, Rice....................................................... (202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.......................................... (202) 720-7369 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section....................... (202) 720-2127 ......................................................................................... Heidi Lanouette - Blueberries, Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes................. (202) 720-4285 Robert Little - Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes......................................... (202) 720-3250 Anastasiya Osborne - Almonds, Apples, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco....................................................... (202) 720-4288 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Grapefruit, Garlic, Hazelnuts, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges............ (202) 720-5412 Fleming Gibson - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans................................. (202) 720-2127 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons.................... (202) 720-2157 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. The new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or subscribe, they are located at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at program.intake@usda.gov.