Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released March 10, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 1 Percent from February Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2019-2020 season is 5.24 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 2 percent from the 2018-2019 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 71.0 million boxes (3.20 million tons), is down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 1 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 30.0 million boxes (1.35 million tons), down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 1 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 41.0 million boxes (1.85 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 1 percent below last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.50 million boxes (340,000 tons), down 6 percent from both last month and the previous season. This results in a California all orange forecast of 48.5 million boxes (1.94 million tons), down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 3 percent from last season's final utilization. The forecast for Texas is carried forward from the previous forecast. This report was approved on March 10, 2020. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Joseph Cooper Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2018 and 2019................ 4 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2018-2019 and Forecasted March 1, 2020............................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 February Weather Summary................................................................................. 13 February Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 13 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2018 and 2019 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 acres -- ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons --- : For sugar : Florida ............: 397.0 397.0 41.7 42.8 16,555 16,992 Louisiana ..........: 425.0 442.0 35.3 27.7 15,003 12,243 Texas ..............: 37.6 31.3 36.6 33.6 1,376 1,052 : United States ......: 859.6 870.3 38.3 34.8 32,934 30,287 : For seed : Florida ............: 15.3 13.7 45.8 47.6 701 652 Louisiana ..........: 23.5 27.0 36.5 34.0 858 918 Texas ..............: 1.3 2.2 37.9 36.5 49 80 : United States ......: 40.1 42.9 40.1 38.5 1,608 1,650 : For sugar and seed : Florida ............: 412.3 410.7 41.9 43.0 17,256 17,644 Louisiana ..........: 448.5 469.0 35.4 28.1 15,861 13,161 Texas ..............: 38.9 33.5 36.6 33.8 1,425 1,132 : United States ......: 899.7 913.2 38.4 35.0 34,542 31,937 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Net tons. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2018-2019 and Forecasted March 1, 2020 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2018-2019 : 2019-2020 : 2018-2019 : 2019-2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 boxes ------ ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ..............: 49,800 48,500 1,992 1,940 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 3/ .: 40,800 40,000 1,632 1,600 Valencia ....................: 9,000 8,500 360 340 : Florida, all .................: 71,750 71,000 3,229 3,195 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 30,400 30,000 1,368 1,350 Valencia ....................: 41,350 41,000 1,861 1,845 : Texas, all 2/ ................: 2,500 2,560 106 109 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 2,210 1,950 94 83 Valencia ....................: 290 610 12 26 : United States, all ...........: 124,050 122,060 5,327 5,244 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 73,410 71,950 3,094 3,033 Valencia ....................: 50,640 50,110 2,233 2,211 : Grapefruit : California 2/ ................: 3,200 4,100 128 164 Florida, all .................: 4,510 5,400 192 229 Red .........................: 3,740 4,500 159 191 White .......................: 770 900 33 38 Texas 2/ .....................: 6,100 6,200 244 248 : United States ................: 13,810 15,700 564 641 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California 2/ ................: 26,000 22,000 1,040 880 Florida ......................: 990 1,050 47 50 : United States ................: 26,990 23,050 1,087 930 : Lemons 2/ : Arizona ......................: 1,350 1,400 54 56 California ...................: 22,800 19,000 912 760 : United States ................: 24,150 20,400 966 816 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,721 2,182 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 89,700 81,482 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,587 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 52,425 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 16,743 All other ............................: (NA) 35,682 Oats ...................................: 2,810 826 Proso millet ...........................: 506 465 Rice ...................................: 2,540 2,472 Rye ....................................: 1,865 310 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 5,265 4,675 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 339 Wheat, all .............................: 45,158 37,162 Winter ...............................: 31,159 30,804 24,327 Durum ................................: 1,339 1,175 Other spring .........................: 12,660 11,660 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,040.0 1,910.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 374 319 Mustard seed ...........................: 98.0 90.0 Peanuts ................................: 1,427.7 1,391.7 Rapeseed ...............................: 11.3 10.4 Safflower ..............................: 165.8 152.7 Soybeans for beans .....................: 76,100 75,021 Sunflower ..............................: 1,350.6 1,244.5 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 13,737.8 11,804.5 Upland ...............................: 13,508.0 11,580.0 American Pima ........................: 229.8 224.5 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,132.0 979.3 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 913.2 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 227.1 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 451.4 404.0 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,287.4 1,176.5 Dry edible peas ........................: 1,103.0 1,052.0 Lentils ................................: 486.0 431.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 56.5 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 52.4 Potatoes ...............................: 968.3 942.2 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 18.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 77.7 169,566 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 168.0 13,691,561 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.2 132,807 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.46 128,864 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.28 54,875 All other ........................tons: 2.07 73,989 Oats ............................bushels: 64.3 53,148 Proso millet ....................bushels: 35.7 16,608 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,471 184,675 Rye .............................bushels: 34.3 10,622 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 73.0 341,460 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 11.9 4,019 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 51.7 1,920,139 Winter ........................bushels: 53.6 1,304,003 Durum .........................bushels: 45.7 53,756 Other spring ..................bushels: 48.2 562,380 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,781 3,402,000 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 6,232.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 20.0 6,395 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 706 63,580 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,949 5,496,087 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,160 22,464 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,272 194,295 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 47.4 3,558,281 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,562 1,943,435 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 817 20,102.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 803 19,380.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,544 722.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 29.2 28,600 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 35.0 31,937 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,060 467,956 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,544 6,237 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 1,769 20,811 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 2,124 22,346 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,250 5,388 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,981 112,041.2 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,240 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 846,491 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 104 5,452 Potatoes ............................cwt: 449 422,890 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 130 2,413 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,101,160 883,030 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,300,690 32,974,950 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,665,690 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 21,215,870 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,775,720 All other ....................: (NA) 14,440,150 Oats ...........................: 1,137,180 334,270 Proso millet ...................: 204,770 188,180 Rice ...........................: 1,027,910 1,000,390 Rye ............................: 754,750 125,450 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,130,690 1,891,930 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 137,190 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,274,990 15,039,090 Winter .......................: 12,609,740 12,466,070 9,844,890 Durum ........................: 541,880 475,510 Other spring .................: 5,123,380 4,718,690 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 825,570 772,960 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 151,350 129,100 Mustard seed ...................: 39,660 36,420 Peanuts ........................: 577,780 563,210 Rapeseed .......................: 4,570 4,210 Safflower ......................: 67,100 61,800 Soybeans for beans .............: 30,796,910 30,360,250 Sunflower ......................: 546,570 503,640 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 5,559,550 4,777,160 Upland .......................: 5,466,550 4,686,310 American Pima ................: 93,000 90,850 Sugarbeets .....................: 458,110 396,310 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 369,560 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 91,910 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 182,680 163,490 Dry edible beans ...............: 521,000 476,120 Dry edible peas ................: 446,370 425,730 Lentils ........................: 196,680 174,420 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 22,880 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 21,210 Potatoes .......................: 391,860 381,300 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,490 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.18 3,691,860 Corn for grain .........................: 10.55 347,781,670 Corn for silage ........................: 45.20 120,480,480 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.51 116,903,450 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.35 49,781,760 All other ............................: 4.65 67,121,690 Oats ...................................: 2.31 771,440 Proso millet ...........................: 2.00 376,660 Rice ...................................: 8.37 8,376,720 Rye ....................................: 2.15 269,810 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.58 8,673,480 Sorghum for silage .....................: 26.58 3,645,980 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.47 52,257,620 Winter ...............................: 3.60 35,489,150 Durum ................................: 3.08 1,463,000 Other spring .........................: 3.24 15,305,480 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.00 1,543,120 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 5,653,580 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.26 162,440 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.79 28,840 Peanuts ................................: 4.43 2,492,980 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.42 10,190 Safflower ..............................: 1.43 88,130 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.19 96,840,540 Sunflower ..............................: 1.75 881,530 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.92 4,376,690 Upland ...............................: 0.90 4,219,500 American Pima ........................: 1.73 157,200 Sugarbeets .............................: 65.47 25,945,480 Sugarcane ..............................: 78.40 28,972,760 Tobacco ................................: 2.31 212,260 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.73 282,910 Dry edible beans .......................: 1.98 943,970 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.38 1,013,600 Lentils ................................: 1.40 244,400 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.22 50,820 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 21,200 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 383,960 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.12 2,470 Potatoes ...............................: 50.31 19,181,970 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.15 1,090 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2019-2020 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 564 641 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 966 816 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 5,327 5,244 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,087 930 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,630.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 64,500 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 362,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 290.2 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 26,430 Cranberries .........................barrel: 9,040,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 7,500,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 733,500 Pears .................................tons: 805,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: 110,000 Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,200,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 49,000 Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 264,500 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 630,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2019-2020 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 511,650 581,510 Lemons ....................................: 876,340 740,260 Oranges ...................................: 4,832,570 4,757,280 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 986,110 843,680 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,821,690 Apricots ..................................: 58,510 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 328,400 Cherries, Tart ............................: 131,630 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 11,990 Cranberries ...............................: 410,050 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 6,803,890 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 665,420 Pears .....................................: 730,280 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: 99,790 Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 997,900 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 44,450 Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 119,980 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 571,530 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. February Weather Summary Significant precipitation deficits persisted through a second consecutive month in much of California and the Great Basin. In fact, parts of California received no precipitation during the month, setting February records for dryness. In addition, little snow has fallen in the Sierra Nevada over the last 2 months, leaving the average water equivalency of the high-elevation snowpack less than one-half of the end-of-February average. Other areas of the West received occasional rain and snow. Northwestern snowpack, which had stabilized during a wet January, continued to benefit from periods of stormy weather. Pockets of drought persisted, however, along the eastern slopes of the Cascades and in south-central Idaho. In contrast, an early-February deluge-following a heavy-snow event-triggered significant flooding in northeastern Oregon and environs. Farther east, most areas from the Plains to the Atlantic Seaboard experienced another wet month. In some cases, Southern rivers that had flooded in mid-to-late January surged to even higher levels during the second half of February. Lowland flooding also extended northward into the lower Midwest, while parts of the northern Corn Belt continued to brace for spring flooding. Conversely, drier-than-normal February weather affected a few areas, including southern Texas, the upper Great Lakes region, parts of New England, and the northern part of peninsular Florida. Some areas in the upper Midwest, including the eastern Dakotas, have since late November reported a continuous snow cover, beneath which soils remain saturated. During February, North Dakota's corn harvest advanced from 49 to 61 percent complete, while the state's sunflower harvest advanced from 67 to 79 percent complete. Other states in the northern Corn Belt, including Minnesota and Wisconsin, reported some corn still standing in the field. Elsewhere, relatively benign weather prevailed on the Plains, as generally mild weather accompanied frequent precipitation events. However, short-lived cold outbreaks delivered sub-zero temperatures as far south as Colorado and Nebraska. Similarly, a mid-month cold blast produced Midwestern readings below 0°F into northern Missouri and central Illinois. Despite the brief cold waves, above-normal February temperatures dominated the country. The warmest weather, relative to normal, covered areas east of the Mississippi River, where many locations reported monthly temperatures more than 5°F above normal. Slightly cooler-than-normal February weather was mostly confined to the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest. February Agricultural Summary February was warmer than normal for most of the eastern half of the Nation. Temperatures averaged 5°F or more above normal for much of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England States. Most of California, the northern Great Plains, and the Pacific Northwest saw above average temperatures. In contrast, much of the upper Midwest, Rocky Mountain States, and most of Texas saw below average temperatures. Some parts of Colorado, Idaho, and Wyoming saw average temperatures 8°F or more below normal. During the month of February, most of the eastern United States received higher than average precipitation with the exception of much of the Great Lakes region and along much of the Gulf Coast. Most of the Southeast received 6 inches of rain or more above normal. In contrast, much of the West and Midwest saw drier than normal conditions, with large parts of California receiving little or no rain in February. Crop Comments Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2019 was estimated at 31.9 million tons, down 8 percent from 2018. Producers harvested 913,200 acres for sugar and seed during the 2019 crop year, up 2 percent from 2018. Yield for sugar and seed was estimated at 35.0 tons per acre, down 3.4 tons from 2018. Grapefruit: The United States 2019-2020 grapefruit crop is forecast at 641,000 tons, down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 14 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, expected production, at 5.40 million boxes (229,000 tons), is down 8 percent from the previous forecast but up 20 percent from last year. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 930,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 14 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 1.05 million boxes (50,000 ton), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 6 percent from last year. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous forecast. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 4.0 percent. However, if the three abnormal production seasons (three hurricane seasons) are excluded, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.0 percent, or 4.3 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.9 percent, or 7.5 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 198,000 tons (224,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 8 tons to 733,000 tons (18 tons to 733,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times (below 8 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................... (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section........................................... (202) 720-2127 David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports........................ (202) 720-8800 Chris Hawthorn - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet.................................. (202) 720-2127 James Johanson - County Estimates, Hay......................................... (202) 690-8533 Jeff Lemmons - Oats, Soybeans.................................................. (202) 690-3234 Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather.................................................... (202) 720-7621 Chris Hawthorn - Peanuts, Rice................................................. (202) 720-2127 Jean Porter - Rye, Wheat....................................................... (202) 720-8068 Chris Singh - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum...................................... (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Barley, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds............................. (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............. (202) 720-2127 Joshua Bates - Almonds, Apples, Apricots, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco.................................................. (202) 720-4288 Fleming Gibson - Cauliflower, Celery, Grapefruit, Lemons, Macadamia, Mandarins and tangerines, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges................................ (202) 720-5412 Greg Lemmons - Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes, Tame Blueberries, Wild Blueberries.................................................. (202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Artichokes, Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Lentils, Nectarines, Papayas, Peaches, Snap Beans, Spinach, Walnuts, Watermelons .. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Dry Beans, Garlic, Hazelnuts, Honeydews, Kiwifruit, Lettuce, Maple Syrup, Mint, Pears, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Tomatoes................... (202) 720-2157 Dawn Smoker - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans............................ (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. The new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. 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(Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at program.intake@usda.gov.