Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released May 12, 2021, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Winter Wheat Production Up 10 Percent from 2020 Orange Production Unchanged from April Forecast Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.28 billion bushels, up 10 percent from 2020. As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at 52.1 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last year's average yield of 50.9 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain is forecast at 24.6 million acres, up 7 percent from last year. Hard Red Winter production, at 731 million bushels, is up 11 percent from a year ago. Soft Red Winter, at 332 million bushels, is up 25 percent from 2020. White Winter, at 220 million bushels, is down 10 percent from last year. Of the White Winter production, 14.2 million bushels are Hard White and 206 million bushels are Soft White. The United States all orange forecast for the 2020-2021 season is 4.45 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 15 percent from the 2019-2020 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 51.7 million boxes (2.33 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 23 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 22.7 million boxes (1.02 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 23 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 29.0 million boxes (1.31 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 23 percent from last season's final utilization. California and Texas orange production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast. This report was approved on May 12, 2021. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted May 1, 2021.............................................................................................. 5 Durum Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted May 1, 2021.............................................................................................. 6 Wheat Production by Class - United States: 2020 and Forecasted May 1, 2021............................... 6 Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: December 1 and May 1, 2019-2021.......................... 7 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2019-2020 and Forecasted May 1, 2021.............................................................................................. 8 Peach Production by Type - California: 2020 and Forecasted May 1, 2021................................... 9 Almonds Production - State and United States: 2020 and Forecasted May 1, 2021............................ 9 Cotton Area Planted, Harvested, and Yield by Type - States and United States: 2019 and 2020.............. 10 Cotton Production and Bales Ginned by Type - States and United States: 2019 and 2020..................... 11 Cottonseed Production and Farm Disposition - States and United States: 2019 and 2020..................... 12 Cotton Harvest Loss per Acre - Selected States: 2016-2020................................................ 12 Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts - Selected States: 2016-2020............................................... 13 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021.. 14 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021.... 16 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021.............................. 18 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021................................ 19 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 20 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 20 April Weather Summary.................................................................................... 21 April Agricultural Summary............................................................................... 21 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 23 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 25 Reliability of May 1 Crop Production Forecasts........................................................... 26 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 27 This page intentionally left blank. Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted May 1, 2021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production State :------------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 acres -- --- bushels -- --- 1,000 bushels -- : Arkansas ..........: 75 120 55.0 50.0 4,125 6,000 California ........: 80 70 75.0 75.0 6,000 5,250 Colorado ..........: 1,520 1,700 27.0 34.0 41,040 57,800 Idaho .............: 660 680 101.0 95.0 66,660 64,600 Illinois ..........: 520 650 68.0 74.0 35,360 48,100 Indiana ...........: 250 300 70.0 74.0 17,500 22,200 Kansas ............: 6,250 6,900 45.0 48.0 281,250 331,200 Kentucky ..........: 340 365 63.0 75.0 21,420 27,375 Maryland ..........: 150 155 73.0 73.0 10,950 11,315 Michigan ..........: 450 520 75.0 82.0 33,750 42,640 : Mississippi .......: 20 60 48.0 52.0 960 3,120 Missouri ..........: 370 480 62.0 68.0 22,940 32,640 Montana ...........: 1,490 1,650 51.0 49.0 75,990 80,850 Nebraska ..........: 830 780 41.0 47.0 34,030 36,660 North Carolina ....: 350 360 60.0 53.0 21,000 19,080 North Dakota ......: 33 55 49.0 40.0 1,617 2,200 Ohio ..............: 490 530 71.0 75.0 34,790 39,750 Oklahoma ..........: 2,600 2,700 40.0 40.0 104,000 108,000 Oregon ............: 725 705 64.0 56.0 46,400 39,480 South Dakota ......: 600 630 58.0 54.0 34,800 34,020 : Tennessee .........: 230 320 59.0 70.0 13,570 22,400 Texas .............: 2,050 1,900 30.0 32.0 61,500 60,800 Virginia ..........: 130 130 60.0 62.0 7,800 8,060 Washington ........: 1,750 1,690 76.0 64.0 133,000 108,160 Wisconsin .........: 125 220 69.0 70.0 8,625 15,400 : Other States 1/ ...: 936 942 55.5 59.3 51,945 55,825 : United States .....: 23,024 24,612 50.9 52.1 1,171,022 1,282,925 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2021 Summary" report. Durum Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted May 1, 2021 [Area harvested for the United States and remaining States will be published in the "Acreage" report released June 2021. Yield and production will be published in the "Crop Production" report released July 2021. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production State :------------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres -- bushels -- 1,000 bushels : Arizona ...........: 43 44 99.0 100.0 4,257 4,400 California ........: 20 20 87.0 91.0 1,740 1,820 Idaho .............: 9 89.0 801 Montana ...........: 685 39.0 26,715 North Dakota ......: 905 39.0 35,295 : United States .....: 1,662 41.4 68,808 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat Production by Class - United States: 2020 and Forecasted May 1, 2021 [Wheat class estimates are based on the latest available data including both surveys and administrative data. The previous end-of-year season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season for States that do not have survey or administrative data available. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : 2020 : 2021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 bushels : Winter : Hard red ..........: 658,640 730,833 Soft red ..........: 266,235 331,594 Hard white ........: 12,179 14,239 Soft white ........: 233,968 206,259 : Spring : Hard red ..........: 530,152 Hard white ........: 10,687 Soft white ........: 45,151 Durum .............: 68,808 : Total .......... : 1,825,820 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: December 1 and May 1, 2019-2021 ------------------------------------------------------------- : December 1 : May 1 State :--------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 tons : Alabama .......: 1,100 1,800 120 300 Arizona .......: 280 300 45 20 Arkansas ......: 2,000 1,800 340 240 California ....: 1,350 1,640 420 220 Colorado ......: 2,000 1,700 410 230 Connecticut ...: 43 30 8 6 Delaware ......: 16 10 2 2 Florida .......: 540 520 80 60 Georgia .......: 1,110 1,210 170 290 Idaho .........: 2,400 2,500 490 410 : Illinois ......: 750 1,000 220 270 Indiana .......: 730 800 140 150 Iowa ..........: 2,180 2,430 510 430 Kansas ........: 5,300 5,000 1,420 910 Kentucky ......: 3,000 3,825 625 950 Louisiana .....: 660 660 120 160 Maine .........: 115 150 30 21 Maryland ......: 315 290 60 57 Massachusetts .: 55 60 8 9 Michigan ......: 930 900 220 190 : Minnesota .....: 1,690 2,240 360 400 Mississippi ...: 960 1,050 130 170 Missouri ......: 6,900 6,000 1,410 1,000 Montana .......: 5,100 4,800 1,040 970 Nebraska ......: 4,200 4,200 1,380 1,000 Nevada ........: 935 400 80 90 New Hampshire .: 30 36 7 5 New Jersey ....: 70 90 29 10 New Mexico ....: 330 210 50 40 New York ......: 1,600 1,000 350 290 : North Carolina : 1,300 1,120 180 190 North Dakota ..: 4,200 3,700 1,290 950 Ohio ..........: 1,250 1,300 220 210 Oklahoma ......: 4,200 4,100 1,350 1,150 Oregon ........: 1,900 1,600 400 290 Pennsylvania ..: 1,650 1,410 350 275 Rhode Island ..: 4 4 1 1 South Carolina : 360 400 75 125 South Dakota ..: 6,250 5,800 2,350 2,200 Tennessee .....: 2,900 2,930 425 570 : Texas .........: 5,600 6,400 1,950 1,200 Utah ..........: 1,300 1,250 300 170 Vermont .......: 165 145 36 35 Virginia ......: 1,800 2,050 310 480 Washington ....: 1,050 1,100 160 220 West Virginia .: 660 770 95 145 Wisconsin .....: 1,770 1,790 310 570 Wyoming .......: 1,440 1,500 350 325 : United States .: 84,488 84,020 20,426 18,006 ------------------------------------------------------------- Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2019-2020 and Forecasted May 1, 2021 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2019-2020 : 2020-2021 : 2019-2020 : 2020-2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ------ ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all 2/ .........: 54,100 52,000 2,164 2,080 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 43,300 42,000 1,732 1,680 Valencia ..................: 10,800 10,000 432 400 : Florida, all ...............: 67,400 51,700 3,033 2,327 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 29,650 22,700 1,334 1,022 Valencia ..................: 37,750 29,000 1,699 1,305 : Texas, all 2/ ..............: 1,340 1,050 57 45 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 1,150 1,000 49 43 Valencia ..................: 190 50 8 2 : United States, all .........: 122,840 104,750 5,254 4,452 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 74,100 65,700 3,115 2,745 Valencia ..................: 48,740 39,050 2,139 1,707 : Grapefruit : California 2/ ..............: 4,700 4,200 188 168 Florida, all ...............: 4,850 4,200 207 179 Red 4/ ....................: 4,060 (NA) 173 (NA) White 4/ ..................: 790 (NA) 34 (NA) Texas 2/ ...................: 4,400 2,400 176 96 : United States ..............: 13,950 10,800 571 443 : Tangerines and mandarins 5/ : California 2/ ..............: 22,400 23,000 896 920 Florida ....................: 1,020 900 48 43 : United States ..............: 23,420 23,900 944 963 : Lemons 2/ : Arizona ....................: 1,800 1,800 72 72 California .................: 25,300 22,000 1,012 880 : United States ..............: 27,100 23,800 1,084 952 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 4/ Estimates discontinued in 2020-2021. 5/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Peach Production by Type - California: 2020 and Forecasted May 1, 2021 -------------------------------------------------------- : Total production Type :----------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 -------------------------------------------------------- : tons : Freestone ..........: 220,000 240,000 : Clingstone .........: 248,000 240,000 : Total ..............: 468,000 480,000 -------------------------------------------------------- Almonds Production - State and United States: 2020 and Forecasted May 1, 2021 -------------------------------------------------------- : Total production (shelled basis) State :----------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 -------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 pounds : California .........: 3,115,000 3,200,000 : United States ......: 3,115,000 3,200,000 -------------------------------------------------------- Cotton Area Planted, Harvested, and Yield by Type - States and United States: 2019 and 2020 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested : Yield per acre Type and State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- 1,000 acres --------------- ---- pounds ---- : Upland : Alabama .........: 540.0 450.0 532.0 446.0 928 790 Arizona .........: 160.0 125.0 158.0 123.0 1,154 1,179 Arkansas ........: 620.0 525.0 610.0 520.0 1,185 1,179 California ......: 54.0 34.0 53.0 33.5 1,576 2,006 Florida .........: 112.0 98.0 110.0 93.0 895 532 Georgia .........: 1,400.0 1,190.0 1,380.0 1,180.0 953 887 Kansas ..........: 175.0 195.0 149.0 184.0 902 783 Louisiana .......: 280.0 170.0 268.0 165.0 1,042 986 Mississippi .....: 710.0 530.0 700.0 525.0 1,112 1,079 Missouri ........: 380.0 295.0 368.0 287.0 1,193 1,144 : New Mexico ......: 63.0 43.0 44.0 26.0 840 1,052 North Carolina ..: 510.0 360.0 500.0 330.0 998 759 Oklahoma ........: 640.0 525.0 450.0 435.0 703 702 South Carolina ..: 300.0 190.0 295.0 179.0 809 802 Tennessee .......: 410.0 280.0 405.0 275.0 1,138 1,066 Texas ...........: 7,050.0 6,800.0 5,150.0 3,200.0 589 686 Virginia ........: 103.0 80.0 102.0 79.0 1,144 772 : United States ...: 13,507.0 11,890.0 11,274.0 8,080.5 819 835 : American Pima : Arizona .........: 7.5 6.5 7.5 6.5 800 1,034 California ......: 204.0 147.0 201.0 146.0 1,545 1,562 New Mexico ......: 5.2 10.5 4.9 10.5 882 663 Texas ...........: 12.0 38.0 10.0 31.0 816 666 : United States ...: 228.7 202.0 223.4 194.0 1,473 1,352 : All : Alabama .........: 540.0 450.0 532.0 446.0 928 790 Arizona .........: 167.5 131.5 165.5 129.5 1,138 1,171 Arkansas ........: 620.0 525.0 610.0 520.0 1,185 1,179 California ......: 258.0 181.0 254.0 179.5 1,551 1,645 Florida .........: 112.0 98.0 110.0 93.0 895 532 Georgia .........: 1,400.0 1,190.0 1,380.0 1,180.0 953 887 Kansas ..........: 175.0 195.0 149.0 184.0 902 783 Louisiana .......: 280.0 170.0 268.0 165.0 1,042 986 Mississippi .....: 710.0 530.0 700.0 525.0 1,112 1,079 Missouri ........: 380.0 295.0 368.0 287.0 1,193 1,144 : New Mexico ......: 68.2 53.5 48.9 36.5 844 940 North Carolina ..: 510.0 360.0 500.0 330.0 998 759 Oklahoma ........: 640.0 525.0 450.0 435.0 703 702 South Carolina ..: 300.0 190.0 295.0 179.0 809 802 Tennessee .......: 410.0 280.0 405.0 275.0 1,138 1,066 Texas ...........: 7,062.0 6,838.0 5,160.0 3,231.0 589 685 Virginia ........: 103.0 80.0 102.0 79.0 1,144 772 : United States ...: 13,735.7 12,092.0 11,497.4 8,274.5 831 847 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton Production and Bales Ginned by Type - States and United States: 2019 and 2020 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production in : : Bales ginned in Type and State : 480-pound net weight : Lint seed : 480-pound net weight : bales 1/ : ratio : bales 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 bales --- ------ ratio ----- -------- bales -------- : Upland : Alabama .........: 1,028.0 734.0 (NA) (NA) 1,002,300 715,850 Arizona .........: 380.0 302.0 (NA) (NA) 366,400 303,100 Arkansas ........: 1,506.0 1,277.0 (NA) (NA) 1,599,500 1,348,350 California ......: 174.0 140.0 (NA) (NA) 188,200 140,400 Florida .........: 205.0 103.0 (NA) (NA) 166,750 91,600 Georgia .........: 2,740.0 2,180.0 (NA) (NA) 2,798,300 2,207,950 Kansas ..........: 280.0 300.0 (NA) (NA) 240,250 204,650 Louisiana .......: 582.0 339.0 (NA) (NA) 592,650 352,400 Mississippi .....: 1,621.0 1,180.0 (NA) (NA) 1,576,300 1,147,100 Missouri ........: 915.0 684.0 (NA) (NA) 846,300 633,150 : New Mexico ......: 77.0 57.0 (NA) (NA) 32,100 26,700 North Carolina ..: 1,040.0 522.0 (NA) (NA) 1,098,400 559,450 Oklahoma ........: 659.0 636.0 (NA) (NA) 554,600 515,000 South Carolina ..: 497.0 299.0 (NA) (NA) 436,850 260,000 Tennessee .......: 960.0 611.0 (NA) (NA) 962,300 602,400 Texas ...........: 6,320.0 4,570.0 (NA) (NA) 6,497,150 4,798,550 Virginia ........: 243.0 127.0 (NA) (NA) 235,550 123,450 : United States ...: 19,227.0 14,061.0 (NA) (NA) 19,193,900 14,030,100 : American Pima : Arizona .........: 12.5 14.0 (NA) (NA) 12,800 13,100 California ......: 647.0 475.0 (NA) (NA) 646,100 474,250 New Mexico ......: 9.0 14.5 (NA) (NA) 10,200 17,150 Texas ...........: 17.0 43.0 (NA) (NA) 15,350 40,550 : United States ...: 685.5 546.5 (NA) (NA) 684,450 545,050 : All : Alabama .........: 1,028.0 734.0 (NA) (NA) 1,002,300 715,850 Arizona .........: 392.5 316.0 (NA) (NA) 379,200 316,200 Arkansas ........: 1,506.0 1,277.0 0.433 0.432 1,599,500 1,348,350 California ......: 821.0 615.0 (NA) (NA) 834,300 614,650 Florida .........: 205.0 103.0 (NA) (NA) 166,750 91,600 Georgia .........: 2,740.0 2,180.0 0.458 0.460 2,798,300 2,207,950 Kansas ..........: 280.0 300.0 (NA) (NA) 240,250 204,650 Louisiana .......: 582.0 339.0 (NA) (NA) 592,650 352,400 Mississippi .....: 1,621.0 1,180.0 0.436 0.431 1,576,300 1,147,100 Missouri ........: 915.0 684.0 (NA) (NA) 846,300 633,150 : New Mexico ......: 86.0 71.5 (NA) (NA) 42,300 43,850 North Carolina ..: 1,040.0 522.0 (NA) (NA) 1,098,400 559,450 Oklahoma ........: 659.0 636.0 (NA) (NA) 554,600 515,000 South Carolina ..: 497.0 299.0 (NA) (NA) 436,850 260,000 Tennessee .......: 960.0 611.0 (NA) (NA) 962,300 602,400 Texas ...........: 6,337.0 4,613.0 0.444 0.433 6,512,500 4,839,100 Virginia ........: 243.0 127.0 (NA) (NA) 235,550 123,450 : United States ...: 19,912.5 14,607.5 (NA) (NA) 19,878,350 14,575,150 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ Equivalent 480-pound net weight bales ginned, not adjusted for cross-state movement. Cottonseed Production and Farm Disposition - States and United States: 2019 and 2020 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Farm disposition : : : :-----------------------------------: Seed for : Production : Sales to : : planting 2/ State : : oil mills : Other 1/ : : :------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 tons : Alabama .......: 267.0 205.0 46.0 20.0 221.0 185.0 3.0 2.6 Arizona .......: 136.0 171.0 - - 136.0 171.0 1.0 0.8 Arkansas ......: 472.0 402.0 280.0 292.0 192.0 110.0 3.7 3.0 California ....: 290.0 294.0 69.0 77.0 221.0 217.0 1.8 1.0 Florida .......: 57.0 28.0 39.0 20.0 18.0 8.0 0.6 0.6 Georgia .......: 778.0 613.0 296.0 253.0 482.0 360.0 6.2 5.7 Kansas ........: 85.0 99.0 - - 85.0 99.0 1.1 1.0 Louisiana .....: 192.0 109.0 121.0 63.0 71.0 46.0 1.4 0.7 Mississippi ...: 503.0 373.0 265.0 195.0 238.0 178.0 4.3 3.1 Missouri ......: 253.0 210.0 117.0 52.0 136.0 158.0 2.2 2.1 : New Mexico ....: 26.0 29.0 - - 26.0 29.0 0.5 0.3 North Carolina : 308.0 121.0 4.0 - 304.0 121.0 3.3 2.6 Oklahoma ......: 191.0 189.0 132.0 123.0 59.0 66.0 3.7 2.8 South Carolina : 116.0 84.0 41.0 - 75.0 84.0 1.5 1.0 Tennessee .....: 301.0 101.0 255.0 65.0 46.0 36.0 2.3 1.9 Texas .........: 1,902.0 1,448.0 910.0 590.0 992.0 858.0 39.3 40.8 Virginia ......: 68.0 33.0 - - 68.0 33.0 0.6 0.5 : United States .: 5,945.0 4,509.0 2,575.0 1,750.0 3,370.0 2,759.0 76.5 70.5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes planting seed, feed, exports, inter-farm sales, shrinkage, losses, and other uses. 2/ Included in "other" farm disposition. Seed for planting is produced in crop year shown, but used in the following year. Cotton Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in four cotton-producing States during 2020. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields are visited monthly from September through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton Harvest Loss per Acre - Selected States: 2016-2020 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : State : 2016 : 2017 : 2018 : 2019 : 2020 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : pounds : Arkansas ..........: 131 80 100 73 53 Georgia ...........: 138 127 342 269 236 Louisiana 1/ ......: 102 79 165 (NA) (NA) Mississippi .......: 100 59 87 104 97 North Carolina 1/ .: 123 65 174 (NA) (NA) Texas .............: 53 60 59 43 58 : 4-State 2/ ........: 76 72 123 90 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Objective yield survey discontinued in 2019. 2/ 6-State total prior to 2019. Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts - Selected States: 2016-2020 [Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs per 40 feet of row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : State and month : 2016 : 2017 : 2018 : 2019 : 2020 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : number : Arkansas : September ..........: 800 911 891 900 994 October ............: 769 839 910 896 849 November ...........: 779 825 892 925 820 December ...........: 779 825 892 900 820 Final ..............: 779 825 892 900 820 : Georgia : September ..........: 562 593 605 598 606 October ............: 668 608 737 783 747 November ...........: 719 680 712 790 761 December ...........: 725 684 719 799 784 Final ..............: 725 684 713 803 785 : Louisiana 1/ : September ..........: 654 648 759 (NA) (NA) October ............: 760 667 734 (NA) (NA) November ...........: 784 665 739 (NA) (NA) December ...........: 784 665 739 (NA) (NA) Final ..............: 784 665 739 (NA) (NA) : Mississippi : September ..........: 953 904 871 944 900 October ............: 942 810 895 895 867 November ...........: 974 804 846 904 877 December ...........: 974 797 846 901 875 Final ..............: 974 797 846 901 875 : North Carolina 1/ : September ..........: 558 637 601 (NA) (NA) October ............: 599 705 641 (NA) (NA) November ...........: 660 769 714 (NA) (NA) December ...........: 660 769 719 (NA) (NA) Final ..............: 660 769 719 (NA) (NA) : Texas : September ..........: 467 592 570 458 576 October ............: 474 602 576 438 581 November ...........: 528 603 553 456 595 December ...........: 547 615 583 459 608 Final ..............: 546 614 582 461 608 : 4-State 2/ : September ..........: 532 633 627 551 645 October ............: 554 635 661 562 661 November ...........: 604 649 640 579 671 December ...........: 618 656 659 580 683 Final ..............: 618 656 657 593 693 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Objective yield survey discontinued in 2019. 2/ 6-State total prior to 2019. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,621 2,590 2,133 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 90,819 91,144 82,467 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,719 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) (NA) 52,238 51,714 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 16,230 All other ............................: (NA) 36,008 Oats ...................................: 2,984 2,488 1,004 Proso millet ...........................: 609 484 Rice ...................................: 3,036 2,710 2,987 Rye ....................................: 1,955 330 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 5,880 6,940 5,095 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 239 Wheat, all .............................: 44,349 46,358 36,746 Winter ...............................: 30,415 33,078 23,024 24,612 Durum ................................: 1,684 1,540 1,662 Other spring .........................: 12,250 11,740 12,060 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1,825.0 2,115.0 1,789.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 305 400 296 Mustard seed ...........................: 97.0 91.4 Peanuts ................................: 1,664.2 1,625.5 1,615.8 Rapeseed ...............................: 11.2 10.1 Safflower ..............................: 136.0 126.7 Soybeans for beans .....................: 83,084 87,600 82,318 Sunflower ..............................: 1,718.7 1,216.0 1,665.7 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 12,092.0 12,036.0 8,274.5 Upland ...............................: 11,890.0 11,894.0 8,080.5 American Pima ........................: 202.0 142.0 194.0 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,162.2 1,169.0 1,142.3 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 947.6 Tobacco ................................: (NA) (NA) 198.1 195.8 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 269.8 290.0 262.9 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,740.0 1,540.0 1,676.5 Dry edible peas ........................: 999.0 893.0 973.0 Lentils ................................: 528.0 611.0 514.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 58.6 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 50.1 Potatoes ...............................: 921.0 914.1 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 17.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --------- 1,000 -------- : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 77.5 165,324 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 172.0 14,182,479 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.5 137,729 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.43 126,812 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.27 53,067 All other ........................tons: 2.05 73,745 Oats ............................bushels: 65.1 65,355 Proso millet ....................bushels: 19.0 9,210 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,619 227,583 Rye .............................bushels: 34.9 11,532 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 73.2 372,960 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.1 3,125 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 49.7 1,825,820 Winter ........................bushels: 50.9 52.1 1,171,022 1,282,925 Durum .........................bushels: 41.4 68,808 Other spring ..................bushels: 48.6 585,990 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,931 3,454,950 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,509.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 19.3 5,706 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 895 81,770 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,796 6,133,900 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,971 19,910 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,167 147,800 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.2 4,135,477 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,790 2,982,410 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 847 14,607.5 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 835 14,061.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,352 546.5 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 29.4 33,618 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 38.1 36,100 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 1,966 389,413 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,625 4,273 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 1,966 32,963 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 2,234 21,733 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,442 7,411 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,770 103,810.3 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,372 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 816,367 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 99 4,984 Potatoes ............................cwt: 453 414,248 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 121 2,134 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,060,690 1,048,150 863,200 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,753,540 36,885,070 33,373,570 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,719,110 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 21,140,200 20,928,140 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,568,120 All other ....................: (NA) 14,572,080 Oats ...........................: 1,207,590 1,006,870 406,310 Proso millet ...................: 246,460 195,870 Rice ...........................: 1,228,640 1,096,710 1,208,810 Rye ............................: 791,170 133,550 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,379,580 2,808,550 2,061,900 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 96,720 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 17,947,600 18,760,620 14,870,740 Winter .......................: 12,308,650 13,386,340 9,317,580 9,960,230 Durum ........................: 681,500 623,220 672,590 Other spring .................: 4,957,450 4,751,060 4,880,560 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 738,560 855,920 723,990 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 123,430 161,880 119,790 Mustard seed ...................: 39,250 36,990 Peanuts ........................: 673,490 657,820 653,900 Rapeseed .......................: 4,530 4,090 Safflower ......................: 55,040 51,270 Soybeans for beans .............: 33,623,260 35,450,840 33,313,270 Sunflower ......................: 695,540 492,100 674,090 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,893,510 4,870,850 3,348,610 Upland .......................: 4,811,760 4,813,380 3,270,100 American Pima ................: 81,750 57,470 78,510 Sugarbeets .....................: 470,330 473,080 462,280 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 383,480 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 80,150 79,240 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 109,190 117,360 106,390 Dry edible beans ...............: 704,160 623,220 678,460 Dry edible peas ................: 404,290 361,390 393,760 Lentils ........................: 213,680 247,270 208,010 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 23,730 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 20,270 Potatoes .......................: 372,720 369,930 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,160 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.17 3,599,510 Corn for grain .........................: 10.79 360,251,560 Corn for silage ........................: 45.95 124,945,650 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.44 115,041,910 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.33 48,141,570 All other ............................: 4.59 66,900,340 Oats ...................................: 2.33 948,630 Proso millet ...........................: 1.07 208,880 Rice ...................................: 8.54 10,322,990 Rye ....................................: 2.19 292,930 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.59 9,473,620 Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.31 2,834,950 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.34 49,690,680 Winter ...............................: 3.42 3.51 31,870,000 34,915,500 Durum ................................: 2.78 1,872,650 Other spring .........................: 3.27 15,948,030 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.16 1,567,140 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 4,090,500 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.21 144,940 Mustard seed ...........................: 1.00 37,090 Peanuts ................................: 4.25 2,782,290 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.21 9,030 Safflower ..............................: 1.31 67,040 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.38 112,549,240 Sunflower ..............................: 2.01 1,352,800 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.95 3,180,410 Upland ...............................: 0.94 3,061,420 American Pima ........................: 1.52 118,990 Sugarbeets .............................: 65.97 30,497,740 Sugarcane ..............................: 85.40 32,749,370 Tobacco ................................: 2.20 176,630 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.82 193,820 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.20 1,495,180 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.50 985,790 Lentils ................................: 1.62 336,160 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 1.98 47,090 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 21,860 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 370,300 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.11 2,260 Potatoes ...............................: 50.79 18,789,970 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 970 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2020-2021 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 571 443 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,084 952 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 5,254 4,452 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 944 963 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,253.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 33,400 Avocados ..............................tons: 206,610 Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: 648,200 Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: 47,400 Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 325,100 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 139.5 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 23,870 Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,830,000 : Dates .................................tons: 62,600 Grapes ................................tons: 5,940,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: 40,000 Nectarines (California) ...............tons: 122,500 Olives (California) ...................tons: 67,700 Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: 8,280 Peaches ...............................tons: 617,760 Pears .................................tons: 672,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: 105,000 Prunes (California) ...................tons: 165,880 Raspberries ...................1,000 pounds: 222,000 Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: 23,280.0 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 3,115,000 3,200,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 63,000 Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: 39,500 Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 305,360 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: 1,045,000 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 785,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2019-2020 and 2020-2021. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2020-2021 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 518,000 401,880 Lemons ....................................: 983,390 863,640 Oranges ...................................: 4,766,350 4,038,790 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 856,380 873,620 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,650,680 Apricots ..................................: 30,300 Avocados ..................................: 187,430 Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: 294,020 Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: 21,500 Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 294,930 Cherries, Tart ............................: 63,280 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 10,830 Cranberries ...............................: 355,160 : Dates .....................................: 56,790 Grapes ....................................: 5,388,680 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: 36,290 Nectarines (California) ...................: 111,130 Olives (California) .......................: 61,420 Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: 3,760 Peaches ...................................: 560,420 Pears .....................................: 609,630 Plums (California) ........................: 95,250 Prunes (California) .......................: 150,480 Raspberries ...............................: 100,700 Strawberries ..............................: 1,055,960 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,412,940 1,451,500 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 57,150 Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: 17,920 Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 138,510 Pistachios (California) ...................: 474,000 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 712,140 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2019-2020 and 2020-2021. April Weather Summary Despite periodic April rain and snow showers, drought resolutely persisted across much of the western half of the country, with national coverage increasing from 44 to 48 percent during the 4-week period ending April 27, according to the United States Drought Monitor. During the same 4 weeks, drought coverage in the 11-state Western region increased from 75 to 84 percent. In addition, Western coverage of extreme to exceptional drought (D3 to D4) increased by nearly 4 percentage points during April to reach 43 percent. Across roughly the southern two-thirds of the West, a drought complication was premature melting of high-elevation snowpack, which disrupted the natural hydrological cycle and could potentially extend the wildfire season. By May 2, USDA/NASS reported that rangeland and pastures were rated at least 40 percent in very poor to poor condition in 12 of the 17 states from the Pacific Coast to the Great Plains, led by Arizona (87 percent very poor to poor). In contrast, pastures were rated at least 70 percent in good to excellent condition in 11 states from the Mississippi Valley eastward. Meanwhile, a pair of April cold snaps threatened a variety of crops and commodities. In the Southeast, early-April freezes caused variable damage to fruits and ornamentals. Several weeks later, more expansive freezes across the Plains and Midwest, as well as parts of the mid-South and interior Southeast, potentially harmed some jointing to heading winter wheat. Other possible adverse freeze impacts from the late-April cold wave included blooming fruits and emerged summer crops. Despite early-April warmth across the Nation's mid-section, subsequent cold weather helped to push monthly temperatures to near- or below-normal levels. Elsewhere, warmer-than-normal weather generally covered the Pacific Coast States, the Great Basin, and the Desert Southwest, as well as an area stretching from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. Elsewhere, pockets of April dryness covered the Midwest, southern High Plains, and the mid-Atlantic, while heavy precipitation was common across the Deep South, including the Gulf Coast region. Across the northern Plains, rain and snow showers were insufficient to significantly boost soil moisture, while cool weather and dry soils locally hampered crop emergence and early-season pasture growth. April Agricultural Summary April was cooler than normal for most of the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, Rockies, Southeast, and Texas. Large parts of these areas recorded temperatures 2°F or more below normal. In contrast, temperatures were warmer than normal for most of California, the Great Lakes, Northeast, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest. Large parts of these areas recorded temperatures 2°F or more above normal for the month. While most of the Nation remained drier than normal for the month, higher than normal precipitation was recorded in parts of Florida, New Mexico, the Great Lakes, Southern Plains, Deep South, and Texas. The most significant amounts of rain fell along the Gulf Coast, where parts of Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi received 10 inches or more of rain for the month. By April 4, producers had planted 2 percent of the Nation's corn crop, equal to both last year and the 5-year average. At that time, Texas was the furthest advanced in planting progress with 55 percent planted. By April 18, producers had planted 8 percent of the Nation's corn crop, 2 percentage points ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average. Two percent of the Nation's corn acreage had emerged by April 18, one percentage point ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. The planting pace picked up during the week ending May 2, when producers had planted 46 percent of the Nation's corn crop, 2 percentage points behind last year but 10 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Sixty-nine percent of Iowa's intended corn acreage was planted by May 2, three percentage points behind last year but 24 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Eight percent of the Nation's corn acreage had emerged by May 2, one percentage point ahead of the previous year but 1 percentage point behind the 5-year average. Three percent of the Nation's soybean acreage was planted by April 18, one percentage point ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. At that time, the Mississippi Delta was the most advanced in planting progress. Twenty-four percent of the Nation's soybean acreage was planted by May 2, three percentage points ahead of last year and 13 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. At that time, soybean planting progress was ahead of the 5-year average in 16 of the 18 estimating States. By April 4, four percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was headed, 1 percentage point ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. By April 18, ten percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was headed, 3 percentage points behind the previous year and 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By May 2, twenty-seven percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was headed, 3 percentage points behind the previous year and 7 percentage points behind the 5-year average. On May 2, forty-eight percent of the 2021 winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition, 7 percentage points below the same time last year. In Kansas, the largest winter wheat-producing State, 55 percent of the winter wheat acreage was rated in good to excellent condition. Nationwide, 6 percent of the cotton crop was planted by April 4, one percentage point behind the previous year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. By April 18, eleven percent of the cotton crop was planted, equal to the previous year but 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By May 2, sixteen percent of the cotton crop was planted, one percentage point behind the previous year but equal to the 5-year average. At that time, planting progress was furthest advanced in California and Arizona with 65 percent and 63 percent planted, respectively. By April 4, fourteen percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage was planted, one percentage point behind the previous year but equal to the 5-year average. Fifteen percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage was planted by April 18, four percentage points behind both the previous year and the 5-year average. Twenty percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage was planted by May 2, two percentage points behind the previous year and 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Texas had planted 66 percent of its sorghum acreage by May 2, three percentage points behind last year and 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By April 4, producers had seeded 14 percent of the 2021 rice acreage, 2 percentage points behind the previous year and 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By April 4, eight percent of the Nation's rice acreage had emerged, 1 percentage point behind last year but equal to the 5-year average. By April 18, producers had seeded 33 percent of the Nation's 2021 rice acreage, 4 percentage points ahead of the previous year but 8 percentage points behind the 5-year average. At that time, planting progress was furthest advanced in Texas and Louisiana with 79 percent and 74 percent planted, respectively. By April 18, sixteen percent of the Nation's rice acreage had emerged, 2 percentage points behind last year and 5 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By May 2, producers had seeded 64 percent of the Nation's 2021 rice acreage, 16 percentage points ahead of the previous year and 4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Planting progress was furthest advanced in Texas and Louisiana with 91 percent and 84 percent planted, respectively. By May 2, thirty-eight percent of the Nation's rice acreage had emerged, 7 percentage points ahead of last year but 5 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Nationally, oat producers had seeded 23 percent of this year's acreage by April 4, three percentage points behind the previous year and 5 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Eighteen percent of the Nation's oat acreage was emerged by April 4, six percentage points behind the previous year and 7 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Nationally, oat producers had seeded 50 percent of this year's acreage by April 18, twelve percentage points ahead of the previous year and 8 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Thirty-one percent of the Nation's oat acreage had emerged by April 18, five percentage points ahead of last year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Nationally, oat producers had seeded 72 percent of this year's acreage by May 2, seven percentage points ahead of the previous year and 10 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Oat planting progress was at or ahead of the 5-year average in all 9 estimating States at that time. Forty-seven percent of the Nation's oat acreage had emerged by May 2, five percentage points ahead of last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Five percent of the Nation's barley crop was planted by April 4, one percentage point ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Twenty-six percent of the Nation's barley crop was planted by April 18, eleven percentage points ahead of last year and 8 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. At that time, planting progress was furthest advanced in Washington and Idaho with 74 percent and 46 percent planted, respectively. Fifty-three percent of the Nation's barley crop was planted by May 2, fourteen percentage points ahead of last year and 12 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Planting progress was furthest advanced in Idaho and Washington with 84 percent and 82 percent planted, respectively. Seventeen percent of the Nation's barley crop had emerged by May 2, six percentage points ahead of the previous year and 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. By April 4, three percent of the spring wheat crop was seeded, equal to last year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. By April 18, nineteen percent of the Nation's spring wheat crop was seeded, 12 percentage points ahead of last year and 7 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. At that time, planting progress was furthest advanced in Washington with 71 percent planted. By May 2, forty-nine percent of the Nation's spring wheat crop was seeded, 22 percentage points ahead of last year and 17 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. At that time, planting progress was ahead of the 5-year average in 5 of the 6 estimating States. By May 2, fourteen percent of the Nation's spring wheat crop had emerged, 8 percentage points ahead of the previous year and 4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Nationally, peanut producers had planted 2 percent of the 2021 peanut acreage by April 18, equal to both the previous year and the 5-year average. Nationally, producers had planted 11 percent of the 2021 peanut acreage by May 2, two percentage points behind the previous year and 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Producers in Florida had planted 28 percent of the 2021 intended acreage by May 2, two percentage points ahead of the previous year and 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. By April 4, four percent of the sugarbeet crop was planted, 1 percentage point ahead of last year and 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 18, twenty-five percent of the Nation's sugarbeet crop was planted, 8 percentage points ahead of last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By May 2, eighty-one percent of the Nation's sugarbeet crop was planted, 34 percentage points ahead of last year and 30 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Planting progress was furthest advanced in Michigan and Idaho with 95 percent and 93 percent planted, respectively. Crop Comments Winter wheat: Production is forecast at 1.28 billion bushels, up 10 percent from 2020. As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at 52.1 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last year's average yield of 50.9 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain is forecast at 24.6 million acres, up 7 percent from last year. If realized, the 2021 United States winter wheat yield will be the third highest on record. Hard Red Winter (HRW) harvested acreage is up about 6 percent from 2020. Soft Red Winter (SRW) harvested acreage is expected to be up 17 percent from last year. As of May 2, forty-eight percent of the winter wheat acreage in the 18 major producing States was rated in good to excellent condition, 7 percentage points lower than at the same time last year. Nationally, 27 percent of the winter wheat crop was headed by May 2, seven percentage points lower than the 5-year average pace. As of May 2, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas winter wheat was rated in good to excellent condition at 55 percent, 54 percent, and 24 percent, respectively. A late-April freeze may have hurt conditions in Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas. These late cold temperatures also impacted winter wheat development through the middle Mississippi Valley. Winter wheat fields were being prepared for harvest as of May 2 in areas of south Texas. As of May 2, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington winter wheat crop was rated in good to excellent condition at 58 percent, 39 percent, and 57 percent, respectively. Durum wheat: Production of Durum wheat in Arizona and California is forecast at a collective 6.22 million bushels, up 4 percent from last year. Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States farms as of May 1, 2021 totaled 18.0 million tons, down 12 percent from May 1, 2020. Disappearance from December 1, 2020 - May 1, 2021 totaled 66.0 million tons, up 3 percent from the same period a year earlier. Record low May 1 hay stock levels were estimated in New Hampshire and Rhode Island. Grapefruit: The United States 2020-2021 grapefruit crop is forecast at 443,000 tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 22 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, expected production, at 4.20 million boxes (179,000 tons), is down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 13 percent from last year. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 963,000 tons, down slightly from the previous forecast but up 2 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 900,000 boxes (43,000 tons), is down 5 percent from the previous forecast and down 12 percent from last season. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous forecast. Peaches: The California 2021 peach crop production is forecast at 480,000 tons, up 3 percent from 2020. The California Freestone crop is forecasted at 240,000 tons, up 9 percent from last season. Freestone peaches experienced adequate chilling hours and favorable weather conditions. The California Clingstone crop is forecast at 240,000 tons, down 3 percent from the previous season. Clingstone full bloom occurred on March 7, four days later than last year. Chilling hours in each growing area were higher than the previous year. Growers were able to apply bloom strays in a timely manner due to mild weather conditions. Throughout the state, both Clingstone and Freestone, bloom was reported to be good and many growers began irrigating earlier this year due to below average rainfall. Almonds: The 2021 California almond production (shelled basis) is forecast at 3.20 billion pounds, up 3 percent from the previous year. If realized, this will be the highest total production on a shelled basis on record. The 2021 almond crop experienced a mostly dry winter throughout California. Snowpack and water levels are well below normal even with several scattered storms and a few instances of hail. Warm temperatures provided excellent bloom conditions, with peak bloom occurring in late February and early March. There were reports of good pollination activity. Excellent growing conditions in April benefited the crop's development. 2020 Cotton Final: All cotton production is estimated at 14.6 million 480- pound bales, 27 percent lower than the 2019 crop. The United States yield for all cotton is estimated at 847 pounds per acre, up 16 pounds from the previous year. Upland cotton production is estimated at 14.1 million 480-pound bales, down 27 percent from the 2019 crop. The United States yield for upland cotton is estimated at 835 pounds per acre, up 16 pounds from 2019. American Pima production is estimated at 546,500 bales (480-pounds), down 20 percent from 2019. The United States yield is estimated at 1,352 pounds per acre, down 121 pounds from the previous season. Cottonseed: Cottonseed production in 2020 totaled 4.5 million tons, down 24 percent from the previous year. Sales to oil mills accounted for 39 percent of the disposition. The remaining 61 percent will be used for seed, feed, exports, and various other uses. Statistical Methodology Wheat survey procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between April 23 and May 6 to gather information on expected yield as of May 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in three States (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) where wheat is normally mature enough to make meaningful counts. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's maturity. Counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the heads are clipped, threshed, and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 10,500 producers representing all major production areas. The survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet and personal interviewers. These producers were selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable winter wheat acres for harvest and yield on their operation. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields. Orange survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the May 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September of last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Wheat estimating procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each Regional Field Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published May 1 forecasts. Orange estimating procedures: State level objective yield indications for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analysis to prepare the published May 1 forecast. The May 1 orange production forecasts for California and Texas are carried forward from April. Revision Policy: The May 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season wheat estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the wheat marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the May 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the May 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 winter wheat production forecast is 6.4 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 6.4 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 11.1 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the May 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using winter wheat again as an example, changes between the May 1 forecast and final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 74 million bushels, ranging from 6 million to 245 million bushels. The May 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times. This does not imply that the May 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of May 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 2.4 4.1 134 18 441 11 9 Wheat : Winter wheat ........bushels: 6.4 11.1 74 6 245 9 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch......................................................... (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section................................................ (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather......................................................... (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Oats, Soybeans....................................................... (202) 690-3234 David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports............................. (202) 720-8800 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum..................................... (202) 720-5944 James Johanson - Barley, County Estimates, Hay...................................... (202) 690-8533 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet......................................... (202) 720-9526 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat......................................................... (202) 720-8068 John Stephens - Peanuts, Rice....................................................... (202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.......................................... (202) 720-7369 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section....................... (202) 720-2127 ......................................................................................... Heidi Lanouette - Blueberries, Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes................. (202) 720-4285 Robert Little - Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes......................................... (202) 720-3250 Anastasiya Osborne - Almonds, Apples, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco....................................................... (202) 720-4288 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Grapefruit, Garlic, Hazelnuts, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges............ (202) 720-5412 Fleming Gibson - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans................................. (202) 720-2127 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons.................... (202) 720-2157 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. The new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. 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