Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released March 8, 2023, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Up Slightly from February Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2022-2023 season is 2.62 million tons, up slightly from the previous forecast but down 25 percent from the 2021- 2022 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 16.1 million boxes (725,000 tons), is up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 61 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 6.10 million boxes (275,000 tons), up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 67 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 10.0 million boxes (450,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 56 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.10 million boxes (324,000 tons), unchanged from previous forecast but down 6 percent from the previous season. This results in a California all orange forecast of 46.1 million boxes (1.84 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 14 percent from last season's final utilization. The forecast for Texas is carried forward from the previous forecast. This report was approved on March 8, 2023. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2021 and 2022................ 4 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2021-2022 and Forecasted March 1, 2023............................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 February Weather Summary................................................................................. 13 February Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 13 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of March 1 Crop Production Forecasts......................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2021 and 2022 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 acres -- ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons --- : For sugar : Florida ............: 388.0 386.0 42.4 44.5 16,451 17,177 Louisiana ..........: 466.0 474.0 29.0 32.1 13,514 15,215 Texas ..............: 34.3 30.9 30.8 22.6 1,056 698 : United States ......: 888.3 890.9 34.9 37.1 31,021 33,090 : For seed : Florida ............: 15.5 15.9 47.5 47.4 736 754 Louisiana ..........: 29.3 23.1 34.5 35.5 1,011 820 Texas ..............: 2.1 0.3 33.5 24.6 70 7 : United States ......: 46.9 39.3 38.7 40.2 1,817 1,581 : For sugar and seed : Florida ............: 403.5 401.9 42.6 44.6 17,187 17,931 Louisiana ..........: 495.3 497.1 29.3 32.3 14,525 16,035 Texas ..............: 36.4 31.2 30.9 22.6 1,126 705 : United States ......: 935.2 930.2 35.1 37.3 32,838 34,671 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2021-2022 and Forecasted March 1, 2023 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2021-2022 : 2022-2023 : 2021-2022 : 2022-2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ..............: 40,400 46,100 1,616 1,844 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 3/ .: 31,800 38,000 1,272 1,520 Valencia ....................: 8,600 8,100 344 324 : Florida, all .................: 41,050 16,100 1,847 725 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 18,250 6,100 821 275 Valencia ....................: 22,800 10,000 1,026 450 : Texas, all 2/ ................: 200 1,150 8 49 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 170 900 7 38 Valencia ....................: 30 250 1 11 : United States, all ...........: 81,650 63,350 3,471 2,618 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 50,220 45,000 2,100 1,833 Valencia ....................: 31,430 18,350 1,371 785 : Grapefruit : California 2/ ................: 4,100 4,300 164 172 Florida ......................: 3,330 1,600 142 68 Texas 2/ .....................: 1,700 2,200 68 88 : United States ................: 9,130 8,100 374 328 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California 2/ ................: 17,400 22,000 696 880 Florida ......................: 750 500 36 24 : United States ................: 18,150 22,500 732 904 : Lemons 2/ : Arizona ......................: 950 1,500 38 60 California ...................: 24,900 22,000 996 880 : United States ................: 25,850 23,500 1,034 940 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and mid-season varieties in Florida and Texas. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,945 2,433 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 88,579 79,207 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,860 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 49,546 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 14,913 All other ............................: (NA) 34,633 Oats ...................................: 2,581 890 Proso millet ...........................: 637 507 Rice ...................................: 2,222 2,172 Rye ....................................: 2,175 341 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 6,325 4,570 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 525 Wheat, all .............................: 45,738 35,480 Winter ...............................: 33,271 36,950 23,459 Durum ................................: 1,632 1,581 Other spring .........................: 10,835 10,440 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,213.0 2,169.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 263 244 Mustard seed ...........................: 221.0 182.0 Peanuts ................................: 1,450.3 1,385.4 Rapeseed ...............................: 10.9 10.4 Safflower ..............................: 150.2 135.3 Soybeans for beans .....................: 87,450 86,336 Sunflower ..............................: 1,693.0 1,607.0 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 13,763.0 7,440.7 Upland ...............................: 13,580.0 7,262.5 American Pima ........................: 183.0 178.2 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,159.5 1,137.1 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 930.2 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 201.8 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 353.1 341.9 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,250.0 1,223.0 Dry edible peas ........................: 919.0 862.0 Lentils ................................: 660.0 602.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 59.8 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 34.0 Potatoes ...............................: 901.0 895.6 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 13.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 71.7 174,333 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 173.3 13,729,719 Corn for silage ....................tons: 18.7 128,567 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.28 112,801 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.22 47,958 All other ........................tons: 1.87 64,843 Oats ............................bushels: 64.8 57,655 Proso millet ....................bushels: 18.5 9,403 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,383 160,368 Rye .............................bushels: 36.1 12,301 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 41.1 187,785 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 10.8 5,662 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 46.5 1,649,878 Winter ........................bushels: 47.0 1,103,707 Durum .........................bushels: 40.5 63,981 Other spring ..................bushels: 46.2 482,190 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,762 3,821,810 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,455.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 17.6 4,304 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 557 101,290 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 4,019 5,568,150 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,863 19,380 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,213 164,054 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 49.5 4,276,123 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,750 2,812,540 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 947 14,680.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 939 14,206.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,277 474.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 28.6 32,574 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 37.3 34,671 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,217 447,367 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,070 3,658 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,113 25,847 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,751 15,092 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 912 5,489 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,694 101,286.3 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 5,028 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 702,391 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 99 3,349 Potatoes ............................cwt: 438 392,243 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 120 1,648 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,191,810 984,610 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 35,847,040 32,054,280 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,776,170 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 20,050,770 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,035,140 All other ....................: (NA) 14,015,630 Oats ...........................: 1,044,500 360,170 Proso millet ...................: 257,790 205,180 Rice ...........................: 899,220 878,990 Rye ............................: 880,200 138,000 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,559,660 1,849,430 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 212,460 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,509,710 14,358,400 Winter .......................: 13,464,440 14,953,300 9,493,620 Durum ........................: 660,450 639,810 Other spring .................: 4,384,820 4,224,960 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 895,580 877,770 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 106,430 98,740 Mustard seed ...................: 89,440 73,650 Peanuts ........................: 586,920 560,660 Rapeseed .......................: 4,410 4,210 Safflower ......................: 60,780 54,750 Soybeans for beans .............: 35,390,140 34,939,320 Sunflower ......................: 685,140 650,340 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 5,569,750 3,011,180 Upland .......................: 5,495,690 2,939,060 American Pima ................: 74,060 72,120 Sugarbeets .....................: 469,240 460,170 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 376,440 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 81,650 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 142,900 138,360 Dry edible beans ...............: 505,860 494,940 Dry edible peas ................: 371,910 348,840 Lentils ........................: 267,100 243,620 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 24,190 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 13,760 Potatoes .......................: 364,630 362,440 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 5,540 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.85 3,795,650 Corn for grain .........................: 10.88 348,750,930 Corn for silage ........................: 42.01 116,634,020 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.10 102,331,350 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.21 43,506,770 All other ............................: 4.20 58,824,580 Oats ...................................: 2.32 836,860 Proso millet ...........................: 1.04 213,260 Rice ...................................: 8.28 7,274,170 Rye ....................................: 2.26 312,460 Sorghum for grain ......................: 2.58 4,769,960 Sorghum for silage .....................: 24.18 5,136,480 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.13 44,902,320 Winter ...............................: 3.16 30,037,980 Durum ................................: 2.72 1,741,280 Other spring .........................: 3.11 13,123,060 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1.97 1,733,540 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 4,041,510 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.11 109,330 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.62 45,940 Peanuts ................................: 4.50 2,525,670 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.09 8,790 Safflower ..............................: 1.36 74,410 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.33 116,377,000 Sunflower ..............................: 1.96 1,275,750 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 1.06 3,196,190 Upland ...............................: 1.05 3,092,990 American Pima ........................: 1.43 103,200 Sugarbeets .............................: 64.22 29,550,640 Sugarcane ..............................: 83.55 31,453,000 Tobacco ................................: 2.49 202,920 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.20 165,920 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.37 1,172,400 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.96 684,560 Lentils ................................: 1.02 248,980 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 1.90 45,940 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 25,140 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 318,600 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.11 1,520 Potatoes ...............................: 49.09 17,791,840 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.13 750 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2022-2023 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 374 328 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,034 940 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 3,471 2,618 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 732 904 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,110.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 36,200 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 275,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 229.2 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 26,000 Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,440,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 5,985,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 583,500 Pears .................................tons: 690,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,600,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 68,000 Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 274,520 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 720,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2022-2023 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 339,290 297,560 Lemons ....................................: 938,030 852,750 Oranges ...................................: 3,148,840 2,375,010 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 664,060 820,100 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,585,820 Apricots ..................................: 32,840 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 249,480 Cherries, Tart ............................: 103,960 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 11,790 Cranberries ...............................: 337,470 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,429,500 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 529,340 Pears .....................................: 625,960 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,179,340 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 61,690 Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 124,520 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 653,170 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. February Weather Summary Continuing an active pattern that developed last autumn, frequent major storms further eroded long-term drought. Beneficiaries of the late-winter storminess included California and the Great Basin, Intermountain West, Midwest, and parts of the Plains. By February 28, drought coverage in the continental United States fell to 38.46 percent-a value below the 40-percent mark for the first time since September 22, 2020, according to the Drought Monitor. The record-setting streak with greater than 40 percent drought coverage lasted 126 weeks, shattering the 21st century record of 68 weeks set in 2012-13. Despite the overall reduction in drought coverage, some areas remained critically dry as meteorological spring began. Notably, the central and southern Plains continued to suffer from soil moisture shortages and poor rangeland, pasture, and winter wheat conditions. By February 26, at least 40 percent of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition in Kansas (51 percent), Texas (49 percent), Oklahoma (41 percent), and Nebraska (40 percent). On the same date, statewide topsoil moisture in Texas was rated 72 percent very short to short, while rangeland and pastures were rated 68 percent very poor to poor. Western Texas dealt with a pair of late-month dust storms, the second of which (on February 26) featured wind gusts of 60 to 100 mph or higher. Other regions experiencing dry weather during February included Florida's peninsula and the lower Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, a subtle Northwestern drying trend contrasted with the sudden return of exceptionally stormy weather across California. Following about a month of relatively tranquil weather, California's late-month storms were accompanied by unusually cold conditions and low-elevation snow. By March 1, the average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack grew to nearly 45 inches, on par with end-of-season values in California's last two wet winters-2016-17 and 2018-19-according to the California Department of Water Resources. Cold February weather in California and throughout the West contrasted with record-setting warmth across the South. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 5 to 10°F below normal at numerous locations across California, the Great Basin, and the Intermountain West. Colder-than-normal conditions extended across the northwestern half of the Plains and into the far upper Midwest. Meanwhile, warmer-than-normal weather dominated the eastern one-third of the United States, with readings broadly averaging 5 to 10°F above normal from the lower half of the Mississippi Valley to the middle and southern Atlantic States. For several Southeastern communities, it was the warmest-ever February, in some cases toppling records that had been established just 5 years ago, in 2018. Eastern warmth promoted unusually early development of pastures, winter grains, and fruit crops, but increased the risk that spring cold snaps could cause freeze injury. Elsewhere, highly variable Midwestern conditions ranged from mild, damp weather in the southern and eastern Corn Belt to cold, snowy weather farther northwest. In the far upper Midwest, where snow has been on the ground since November, late-winter storminess occasionally contributed to difficult conditions tending livestock, including early stages of lambing and calving season. Conversely, some livestock producers in the eastern Corn Belt contended with increasingly muddy fields and feedlots. February Agricultural Summary February was warmer than normal for most of the eastern half of the Nation. Much of the area east of the Mississippi River recorded temperatures 6°F or more above normal. In contrast, most of the western half of the Nation recorded cooler than normal temperatures. Parts of the Great Basin and Rockies recorded temperatures 9°F or more below normal for February. Much of the Great Lakes and Midwest, as well as parts of the Great Plains, Rockies, South, and Southwest recorded higher than average amounts of precipitation for February. Parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Washington received at least 8 inches of precipitation during the month. In contrast, much of Florida, the Northeast, Pacific Northwest, as well as parts of the far Northern Plains and South Texas, were drier than normal for the month. Crop Comments Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 34.7 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 6 percent from last season. Producers intend to harvest 930,200 acres for sugar and seed during the 2022 crop year, up slightly from last month but down 1 percent from 2021. Yields for sugar and seed are expected to average 37.3 tons per acre, down 0.4 ton from last month but up 2.2 tons from last season. Grapefruit: The United States 2022-2023 grapefruit crop is forecast at 328,000 tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 12 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 1.60 million boxes (68,000 tons), is up 7 percent from previous forecast but down 52 percent from the last season. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 904,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 23 percent from the last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 500,00 boxes (24,000 tons), unchanged from last forecast but down 33 percent from last year. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous forecast. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 4.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 7.9 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the March 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using oranges again as an example, changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20-years have averaged 203,000 tons, ranging from 8,000 tons to 733,000 tons. The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times. The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of March 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 4.5 7.9 203 8 733 9 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................. (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans (202) 690-3234 David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - Barley, County Estimates, Hay (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat (202) 720-8068 Chris Hawthorn - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet (202) 720-2127 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds................................... (202) 720-7369 Lihan Wei - Peanuts, Rice.................................................... (202) 720-7688 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................ (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco................................................ (202) 720-4288 Robert Little - Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes.................................. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Garlic, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios............................................................... (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Blueberries, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......... (202) 720-4285 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons............. (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans.......................... (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov. Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. The new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or subscribe, they are located at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at program.intake@usda.gov.