Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released May 12, 2023, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Winter Wheat Production Up 2 Percent from 2022 Orange Production Down 1 Percent from April Forecast Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.13 billion bushels, up 2 percent from 2022. As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at 44.7 bushels per acre, down 2.3 bushels from last year's average yield of 47.0 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed is forecast at 25.3 million acres, up 8 percent from last year. Hard Red Winter production, at 514 million bushels, is down 3 percent from a year ago. Soft Red Winter, at 406 million bushels, is up 21 percent from 2022. White Winter, at 210 million bushels, is down 11 percent from last year. Of the White Winter production, 10.2 million bushels are Hard White and 200 million bushels are Soft White. The United States all orange forecast for the 2022-2023 season is 2.55 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 25 percent from the 2021- 2022 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 15.7 million boxes (705,000 tons), is down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 62 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 6.15 million boxes (277,000 tons), up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 66 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 9.50 million boxes (428,000 tons), is down 5 percent from the previous forecast and down 59 percent from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on May 12, 2023. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2022 and Forecasted May 1, 2023.............................................................................................. 5 Durum Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2022 and Forecasted May 1, 2023.............................................................................................. 6 Wheat Production by Class - United States: 2022 and Forecasted May 1, 2023............................... 6 Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: December 1 and May 1, 2021-2023.......................... 7 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2021-2022 and Forecasted May 1, 2023.............................................................................................. 8 Peach Production by Type - California: 2022 and Forecasted May 1, 2023................................... 9 Almonds Production - State and United States: 2022 and Forecasted May 1, 2023............................ 9 Cotton Area Planted, Harvested, and Yield by Type - States and United States: 2021 and 2022.............. 10 Cotton Production and Bales Ginned by Type - States and United States: 2021 and 2022..................... 11 Cottonseed Production and Farm Disposition - States and United States: 2021 and 2022..................... 12 Cotton Harvest Loss per Acre - Selected States: 2018-2022................................................ 12 Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts - Selected States: 2018-2022............................................... 13 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023.. 14 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023.... 16 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023.............................. 18 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023................................ 19 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 20 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 20 April Weather Summary.................................................................................... 21 April Agricultural Summary............................................................................... 21 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 23 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 25 Reliability of May 1 Crop Production Forecasts........................................................... 26 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 27 This page intentionally left blank. Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2022 and Forecasted May 1, 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production State :------------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 acres -- -- bushels -- --- 1,000 bushels -- : Arkansas ..........: 150 160 53.0 51.0 7,950 8,160 California ........: 70 95 73.0 80.0 5,110 7,600 Colorado ..........: 1,430 1,650 25.0 30.0 35,750 49,500 Idaho .............: 710 700 90.0 87.0 63,900 60,900 Illinois ..........: 560 790 79.0 78.0 44,240 61,620 Indiana ...........: 240 380 81.0 77.0 19,440 29,260 Kansas ............: 6,600 6,600 37.0 29.0 244,200 191,400 Kentucky ..........: 375 430 80.0 79.0 30,000 33,970 Maryland ..........: 170 175 78.0 79.0 13,260 13,825 Michigan ..........: 415 580 83.0 81.0 34,445 46,980 : Mississippi .......: 75 95 52.0 53.0 3,900 5,035 Missouri ..........: 410 600 60.0 60.0 24,600 36,000 Montana ...........: 1,800 1,750 33.0 44.0 59,400 77,000 Nebraska ..........: 820 970 32.0 34.0 26,240 32,980 North Carolina ....: 375 420 64.0 63.0 24,000 26,460 North Dakota ......: 95 110 60.0 54.0 5,700 5,940 Ohio ..............: 465 540 79.0 78.0 36,735 42,120 Oklahoma ..........: 2,450 2,150 28.0 23.0 68,600 49,450 Oregon ............: 720 740 68.0 56.0 48,960 41,440 South Dakota ......: 730 750 52.0 46.0 37,960 34,500 : Tennessee .........: 335 400 73.0 72.0 24,455 28,800 Texas .............: 1,300 2,000 30.0 28.0 39,000 56,000 Virginia ..........: 150 145 68.0 61.0 10,200 8,845 Washington ........: 1,800 1,750 68.0 57.0 122,400 99,750 Wisconsin .........: 240 240 78.0 71.0 18,720 17,040 : Other States 1/ ...: 974 1,066 56.0 61.8 54,542 65,840 : United States .....: 23,459 25,286 47.0 44.7 1,103,707 1,130,415 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2023 Summary" report. Durum Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2022 and Forecasted May 1, 2023 [Area harvested for the United States and remaining States will be published in the "Acreage" report released June 2023. Yield and production will be published in the "Crop Production" report released July 2023. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production State :------------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres --- bushels -- 1,000 bushels : Arizona ...........: 84 39 114.0 106.0 9,576 4,134 California ........: 35 20 110.0 110.0 3,850 2,200 Idaho .............: 7 65.0 455 Montana ...........: 675 28.0 18,900 North Dakota ......: 780 40.0 31,200 : United States .....: 1,581 40.5 63,981 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat Production by Class - United States: 2022 and Forecasted May 1, 2023 [Wheat class estimates are based on the latest available data including both surveys and administrative data. The previous end-of-year season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season for States that do not have survey or administrative data available. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : 2022 : 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 bushels : Winter : Hard red ..........: 530,910 514,297 Soft red ..........: 336,525 405,754 Hard white ........: 10,647 10,185 Soft white ........: 225,625 200,179 : Spring : Hard red ..........: 446,015 Hard white ........: 6,707 Soft white ........: 29,468 Durum .............: 63,981 : Total .......... : 1,649,878 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: December 1 and May 1, 2021-2023 ------------------------------------------------------------- : December 1 : May 1 State :--------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 tons : Alabama .......: 1,550 1,300 240 160 Arizona .......: 180 250 10 10 Arkansas ......: 1,700 1,440 260 200 California ....: 1,200 1,125 280 325 Colorado ......: 2,000 1,350 580 170 Connecticut ...: 38 41 5 7 Delaware ......: 10 11 2 2 Florida .......: 460 450 75 30 Georgia .......: 1,260 950 190 120 Idaho .........: 2,350 2,500 530 460 : Illinois ......: 950 980 260 240 Indiana .......: 900 770 240 220 Iowa ..........: 3,120 2,480 720 380 Kansas ........: 5,000 4,100 670 740 Kentucky ......: 3,750 3,100 980 670 Louisiana .....: 640 620 180 90 Maine .........: 105 142 30 29 Maryland ......: 275 300 66 49 Massachusetts .: 34 39 8 11 Michigan ......: 1,100 980 270 230 : Minnesota .....: 1,460 2,190 330 570 Mississippi ...: 1,000 800 180 110 Missouri ......: 5,700 4,650 1,100 820 Montana .......: 2,900 3,250 450 450 Nebraska ......: 4,650 3,000 1,250 530 Nevada ........: 490 560 52 105 New Hampshire .: 42 41 5 6 New Jersey ....: 85 77 14 15 New Mexico ....: 240 190 30 30 New York ......: 1,700 1,400 550 510 : North Carolina : 950 1,000 150 125 North Dakota ..: 2,100 3,300 520 850 Ohio ..........: 1,400 1,350 360 350 Oklahoma ......: 4,260 3,000 600 400 Oregon ........: 920 1,410 220 230 Pennsylvania ..: 1,440 1,630 340 390 Rhode Island ..: 5 5 1 1 South Carolina : 450 380 80 70 South Dakota ..: 3,300 4,350 1,090 1,250 Tennessee .....: 3,000 2,680 530 400 : Texas .........: 8,200 5,150 1,600 1,050 Utah ..........: 1,000 1,250 290 480 Vermont .......: 157 175 34 33 Virginia ......: 1,800 1,700 280 320 Washington ....: 1,100 1,200 180 360 West Virginia .: 790 780 105 175 Wisconsin .....: 2,105 2,165 630 560 Wyoming .......: 1,150 1,300 200 190 : United States .: 79,016 71,911 16,767 14,523 ------------------------------------------------------------- Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2021-2022 and Forecasted May 1, 2023 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2021-2022 : 2022-2023 : 2021-2022 : 2022-2023 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all 2/ .........: 39,100 45,100 1,564 1,804 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 31,500 37,000 1,260 1,480 Valencia ..................: 7,600 8,100 304 324 : Florida, all ...............: 41,200 15,650 1,854 705 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 18,250 6,150 821 277 Valencia ..................: 22,950 9,500 1,033 428 : Texas, all 2/ ..............: 200 1,050 8 45 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 170 700 7 30 Valencia ..................: 30 350 1 15 : United States, all .........: 80,500 61,800 3,426 2,554 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 49,920 43,850 2,088 1,787 Valencia ..................: 30,580 17,950 1,338 767 : Grapefruit : California 2/ ..............: 4,100 4,200 164 168 Florida, all ...............: 3,330 1,800 142 77 Texas 2/ ...................: 1,700 2,400 68 96 : United States ..............: 9,130 8,400 374 341 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California 2/ ..............: 17,500 21,000 700 840 Florida ....................: 750 500 36 24 : United States ..............: 18,250 21,500 736 864 : Lemons 2/ : Arizona ....................: 1,250 1,700 50 68 California .................: 25,200 23,000 1,008 920 : United States ..............: 26,450 24,700 1,058 988 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Peach Production by Type - California: 2022 and Forecasted May 1, 2023 -------------------------------------------------------- : Total production Type :----------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 -------------------------------------------------------- : tons : Freestone ..........: 266,000 270,000 : Clingstone .........: 209,000 210,000 : Total ..............: 475,000 480,000 -------------------------------------------------------- Almonds Production - State and United States: 2022 and Forecasted May 1, 2023 -------------------------------------------------------- : Total production (shelled basis) State :----------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 -------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 pounds : California .........: 2,565,000 2,500,000 : United States ......: 2,565,000 2,500,000 -------------------------------------------------------- Cotton Area Planted, Harvested, and Yield by Type - States and United States: 2021 and 2022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested : Yield per acre Type and State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- 1,000 acres --------------- ---- pounds ---- : Upland : Alabama .........: 405.0 435.0 401.0 430.0 826 930 Arizona .........: 120.0 87.0 119.0 86.0 1,275 1,563 Arkansas ........: 480.0 640.0 475.0 630.0 1,248 1,179 California ......: 26.0 19.0 25.5 18.5 1,920 1,946 Florida .........: 92.0 106.0 90.0 103.0 640 769 Georgia .........: 1,170.0 1,290.0 1,160.0 1,270.0 914 1,002 Kansas ..........: 110.0 165.0 102.0 138.0 880 577 Louisiana .......: 110.0 195.0 104.0 190.0 1,011 904 Mississippi .....: 445.0 530.0 430.0 525.0 997 1,084 Missouri ........: 315.0 360.0 310.0 340.0 1,260 1,240 : New Mexico ......: 36.0 66.0 26.0 30.0 1,108 960 North Carolina ..: 375.0 470.0 365.0 460.0 1,017 1,049 Oklahoma ........: 495.0 670.0 440.0 230.0 756 634 South Carolina ..: 210.0 270.0 207.0 266.0 986 911 Tennessee .......: 275.0 335.0 270.0 325.0 1,036 1,053 Texas ...........: 6,350.0 7,850.0 5,550.0 2,000.0 666 734 Virginia ........: 75.0 91.0 74.0 90.0 1,109 1,131 : United States ...: 11,089.0 13,579.0 10,148.5 7,131.5 813 942 : American Pima : Arizona .........: 9.0 15.0 8.8 14.4 982 933 California ......: 88.0 115.0 87.0 114.0 1,501 1,558 New Mexico ......: 12.5 19.0 11.9 18.8 645 715 Texas ...........: 17.0 33.0 16.0 29.0 780 728 : United States ...: 126.5 182.0 123.7 176.2 1,288 1,280 : All : Alabama .........: 405.0 435.0 401.0 430.0 826 930 Arizona .........: 129.0 102.0 127.8 100.4 1,254 1,473 Arkansas ........: 480.0 640.0 475.0 630.0 1,248 1,179 California ......: 114.0 134.0 112.5 132.5 1,596 1,612 Florida .........: 92.0 106.0 90.0 103.0 640 769 Georgia .........: 1,170.0 1,290.0 1,160.0 1,270.0 914 1,002 Kansas ..........: 110.0 165.0 102.0 138.0 880 577 Louisiana .......: 110.0 195.0 104.0 190.0 1,011 904 Mississippi .....: 445.0 530.0 430.0 525.0 997 1,084 Missouri ........: 315.0 360.0 310.0 340.0 1,260 1,240 : New Mexico ......: 48.5 85.0 37.9 48.8 963 866 North Carolina ..: 375.0 470.0 365.0 460.0 1,017 1,049 Oklahoma ........: 495.0 670.0 440.0 230.0 756 634 South Carolina ..: 210.0 270.0 207.0 266.0 986 911 Tennessee .......: 275.0 335.0 270.0 325.0 1,036 1,053 Texas ...........: 6,367.0 7,883.0 5,566.0 2,029.0 666 734 Virginia ........: 75.0 91.0 74.0 90.0 1,109 1,131 : United States ...: 11,215.5 13,761.0 10,272.2 7,307.7 819 950 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton Production and Bales Ginned by Type - States and United States: 2021 and 2022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production in : : Bales ginned in Type and State : 480-pound net weight : Lint seed : 480-pound net weight : bales 1/ : ratio : bales 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 bales --- ------ ratio ----- -------- bales -------- : Upland : Alabama .........: 690.0 833.0 (NA) (NA) 662,750 808,450 Arizona .........: 316.0 280.0 (NA) (NA) 302,400 265,800 Arkansas ........: 1,235.0 1,548.0 (NA) (NA) 1,322,950 1,678,000 California ......: 102.0 75.0 (NA) (NA) 114,200 93,300 Florida .........: 120.0 165.0 (NA) (NA) 100,300 134,250 Georgia .........: 2,210.0 2,650.0 (NA) (NA) 2,244,100 2,694,150 Kansas ..........: 187.0 166.0 (NA) (NA) 130,800 121,850 Louisiana .......: 219.0 358.0 (NA) (NA) 219,450 365,000 Mississippi .....: 893.0 1,186.0 (NA) (NA) 876,300 1,160,200 Missouri ........: 814.0 878.0 (NA) (NA) 750,250 774,850 : New Mexico ......: 60.0 60.0 (NA) (NA) 19,300 28,300 North Carolina ..: 773.0 1,005.0 (NA) (NA) 819,000 1,065,650 Oklahoma ........: 693.0 304.0 (NA) (NA) 545,450 171,900 South Carolina ..: 425.0 505.0 (NA) (NA) 370,500 441,650 Tennessee .......: 583.0 713.0 (NA) (NA) 585,400 706,500 Texas ...........: 7,700.0 3,060.0 (NA) (NA) 7,925,250 3,253,850 Virginia ........: 171.0 212.0 (NA) (NA) 169,050 208,700 : United States ...: 17,191.0 13,998.0 (NA) (NA) 17,157,450 13,972,400 : American Pima : Arizona .........: 18.0 28.0 (NA) (NA) 17,850 27,500 California ......: 272.0 370.0 (NA) (NA) 271,400 369,800 New Mexico ......: 16.0 28.0 (NA) (NA) 15,700 31,750 Texas ...........: 26.0 44.0 (NA) (NA) 25,200 39,350 : United States ...: 332.0 470.0 (NA) (NA) 330,150 468,400 : All : Alabama .........: 690.0 833.0 (NA) (NA) 662,750 808,450 Arizona .........: 334.0 308.0 (NA) (NA) 320,250 293,300 Arkansas ........: 1,235.0 1,548.0 0.432 0.432 1,322,950 1,678,000 California ......: 374.0 445.0 (NA) (NA) 385,600 463,100 Florida .........: 120.0 165.0 (NA) (NA) 100,300 134,250 Georgia .........: 2,210.0 2,650.0 0.464 0.456 2,244,100 2,694,150 Kansas ..........: 187.0 166.0 (NA) (NA) 130,800 121,850 Louisiana .......: 219.0 358.0 (NA) (NA) 219,450 365,000 Mississippi .....: 893.0 1,186.0 0.437 0.432 876,300 1,160,200 Missouri ........: 814.0 878.0 (NA) (NA) 750,250 774,850 : New Mexico ......: 76.0 88.0 (NA) (NA) 35,000 60,050 North Carolina ..: 773.0 1,005.0 (NA) (NA) 819,000 1,065,650 Oklahoma ........: 693.0 304.0 (NA) (NA) 545,450 171,900 South Carolina ..: 425.0 505.0 (NA) (NA) 370,500 441,650 Tennessee .......: 583.0 713.0 (NA) (NA) 585,400 706,500 Texas ...........: 7,726.0 3,104.0 0.435 0.442 7,950,450 3,293,200 Virginia ........: 171.0 212.0 (NA) (NA) 169,050 208,700 : United States ...: 17,523.0 14,468.0 (NA) (NA) 17,487,600 14,440,800 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ Equivalent 480-pound net weight bales ginned, not adjusted for cross-state movement. Cottonseed Production and Farm Disposition - States and United States: 2021 and 2022 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Farm disposition : : : :-----------------------------------: Seed for : Production : Sales to : : planting 2/ State : : oil mills : Other 1/ : : :------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 tons : Alabama .......: 200.0 236.0 23.0 19.0 177.0 217.0 2.5 2.3 Arizona .......: 113.0 121.0 - - 113.0 121.0 0.8 0.8 Arkansas ......: 390.0 489.0 291.0 356.0 99.0 133.0 3.3 3.0 California ....: 128.0 153.0 31.0 47.0 97.0 106.0 1.1 0.8 Florida .......: 34.0 48.0 25.0 34.0 9.0 14.0 0.6 0.5 Georgia .......: 612.0 757.0 238.0 349.0 374.0 408.0 5.7 5.5 Kansas ........: 57.0 50.0 - - 57.0 50.0 0.6 0.6 Louisiana .....: 68.0 109.0 41.0 57.0 27.0 52.0 1.2 0.8 Mississippi ...: 276.0 374.0 189.0 215.0 87.0 159.0 3.4 2.3 Missouri ......: 245.0 317.0 133.0 136.0 112.0 181.0 2.1 2.0 : New Mexico ....: 24.0 23.0 1.0 - 23.0 23.0 0.4 0.5 North Carolina : 218.0 295.0 12.0 10.0 206.0 285.0 2.8 2.3 Oklahoma ......: 205.0 93.0 118.0 44.0 87.0 49.0 2.9 2.9 South Carolina : 119.0 141.0 - 38.0 119.0 103.0 1.4 1.3 Tennessee .....: 183.0 208.0 156.0 161.0 27.0 47.0 2.1 2.2 Texas .........: 2,403.0 940.0 1,263.0 446.0 1,140.0 494.0 37.9 39.1 Virginia ......: 48.0 61.0 - 11.0 48.0 50.0 0.6 0.5 : United States .: 5,323.0 4,415.0 2,521.0 1,923.0 2,802.0 2,492.0 69.4 67.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes planting seed, feed, exports, inter-farm sales, shrinkage, losses, and other uses. 2/ Included in "other" farm disposition. Seed for planting is produced in crop year shown, but used in the following year. Cotton Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in four cotton-producing States during 2022. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields are visited monthly from September through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton Harvest Loss per Acre - Selected States: 2018-2022 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : State : 2018 : 2019 : 2020 : 2021 : 2022 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : pounds : Arkansas ..........: 100 73 53 43 80 Georgia ...........: 342 269 236 158 218 Louisiana 1/ ......: 165 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Mississippi .......: 87 104 97 85 91 North Carolina 1/ .: 174 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Texas .............: 59 43 58 61 78 : 4-State 2/ ........: 123 90 100 76 120 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Objective yield survey discontinued in 2019. 2/ 6-State total prior to 2019. Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts - Selected States: 2018-2022 [Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs per 40 feet of row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : State and month : 2018 : 2019 : 2020 : 2021 : 2022 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : number : Arkansas : September ..........: 891 900 994 990 811 October ............: 910 896 849 838 799 November ...........: 892 925 820 809 799 December ...........: 892 900 820 807 799 Final ..............: 892 900 820 807 799 : Georgia : September ..........: 605 598 606 597 605 October ............: 737 783 747 658 648 November ...........: 712 790 761 669 705 December ...........: 719 799 784 694 721 Final ..............: 713 803 785 694 721 : Louisiana 1/ : September ..........: 759 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) October ............: 734 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) November ...........: 739 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) December ...........: 739 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Final ..............: 739 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) : Mississippi : September ..........: 871 944 900 957 804 October ............: 895 895 867 807 814 November ...........: 846 904 877 848 830 December ...........: 846 901 875 849 828 Final ..............: 846 901 875 851 828 : North Carolina 1/ : September ..........: 601 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) October ............: 641 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) November ...........: 714 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) December ...........: 719 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Final ..............: 719 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) : Texas : September ..........: 570 458 576 491 583 October ............: 576 438 581 512 615 November ...........: 553 456 595 538 629 December ...........: 583 459 608 539 640 Final ..............: 582 461 608 539 643 : 4-State 2/ : September ..........: 627 551 645 567 641 October ............: 661 562 661 573 668 November ...........: 640 579 671 595 692 December ...........: 659 580 683 599 701 Final ..............: 657 593 693 597 708 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Objective yield survey discontinued in 2019. 2/ 6-State total prior to 2019. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,945 2,922 2,433 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 88,579 91,996 79,207 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,860 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) (NA) 49,546 50,645 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 14,913 All other ............................: (NA) 34,633 Oats ...................................: 2,581 2,667 890 Proso millet ...........................: 637 507 Rice ...................................: 2,222 2,583 2,172 Rye ....................................: 2,175 341 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 6,325 5,975 4,570 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 525 Wheat, all .............................: 45,738 49,855 35,480 Winter ...............................: 33,271 37,505 23,459 25,286 Durum ................................: 1,632 1,780 1,581 Other spring .........................: 10,835 10,570 10,440 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,213.0 2,270.0 2,169.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 263 175 244 Mustard seed ...........................: 221.0 182.0 Peanuts ................................: 1,450.3 1,547.0 1,385.4 Rapeseed ...............................: 10.9 10.4 Safflower ..............................: 150.2 135.3 Soybeans for beans .....................: 87,450 87,505 86,336 Sunflower ..............................: 1,693.0 1,361.0 1,607.0 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 13,761.0 11,256.0 7,307.7 Upland ...............................: 13,579.0 11,102.0 7,131.5 American Pima ........................: 182.0 154.0 176.2 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,159.5 1,110.8 1,137.1 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 930.2 Tobacco ................................: (NA) (NA) 201.8 197.1 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 353.1 340.5 341.9 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,250.0 1,226.0 1,223.0 Dry edible peas ........................: 919.0 1,000.0 862.0 Lentils ................................: 660.0 519.0 602.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 59.8 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 34.0 Potatoes ...............................: 901.0 895.6 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 13.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --------- 1,000 -------- : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 71.7 174,333 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 173.3 13,729,719 Corn for silage ....................tons: 18.7 128,567 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.28 112,801 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.22 47,958 All other ........................tons: 1.87 64,843 Oats ............................bushels: 64.8 57,655 Proso millet ....................bushels: 18.5 9,403 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,383 160,368 Rye .............................bushels: 36.1 12,301 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 41.1 187,785 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 10.8 5,662 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 46.5 1,649,878 Winter ........................bushels: 47.0 44.7 1,103,707 1,130,415 Durum .........................bushels: 40.5 63,981 Other spring ..................bushels: 46.2 482,190 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,762 3,821,810 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,415.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 17.6 4,304 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 557 101,290 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 4,019 5,568,150 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,863 19,380 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,213 164,054 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 49.5 4,276,123 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,750 2,812,540 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 950 14,468.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 942 13,998.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,280 470.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 28.6 32,574 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 37.3 34,671 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,217 447,367 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,070 3,658 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,113 25,847 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,751 15,092 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 912 5,489 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,694 101,286.3 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 5,028 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 702,391 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 99 3,349 Potatoes ............................cwt: 438 392,243 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 120 1,648 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,191,810 1,182,500 984,610 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 35,847,040 37,229,860 32,054,280 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,776,170 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 20,050,770 20,495,530 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,035,140 All other ....................: (NA) 14,015,630 Oats ...........................: 1,044,500 1,079,310 360,170 Proso millet ...................: 257,790 205,180 Rice ...........................: 899,220 1,045,310 878,990 Rye ............................: 880,200 138,000 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,559,660 2,418,020 1,849,430 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 212,460 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,509,710 20,175,820 14,358,400 Winter .......................: 13,464,440 15,177,900 9,493,620 10,232,990 Durum ........................: 660,450 720,350 639,810 Other spring .................: 4,384,820 4,277,570 4,224,960 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 895,580 918,650 877,770 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 106,430 70,820 98,740 Mustard seed ...................: 89,440 73,650 Peanuts ........................: 586,920 626,060 560,660 Rapeseed .......................: 4,410 4,210 Safflower ......................: 60,780 54,750 Soybeans for beans .............: 35,390,140 35,412,400 34,939,320 Sunflower ......................: 685,140 550,780 650,340 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 5,568,940 4,555,190 2,957,350 Upland .......................: 5,495,290 4,492,870 2,886,050 American Pima ................: 73,650 62,320 71,310 Sugarbeets .....................: 469,240 449,530 460,170 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 376,440 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 81,650 79,750 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 142,900 137,800 138,360 Dry edible beans ...............: 505,860 496,150 494,940 Dry edible peas ................: 371,910 404,690 348,840 Lentils ........................: 267,100 210,030 243,620 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 24,190 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 13,760 Potatoes .......................: 364,630 362,440 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 5,540 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.85 3,795,650 Corn for grain .........................: 10.88 348,750,930 Corn for silage ........................: 42.01 116,634,020 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.10 102,331,350 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.21 43,506,770 All other ............................: 4.20 58,824,580 Oats ...................................: 2.32 836,860 Proso millet ...........................: 1.04 213,260 Rice ...................................: 8.28 7,274,170 Rye ....................................: 2.26 312,460 Sorghum for grain ......................: 2.58 4,769,960 Sorghum for silage .....................: 24.18 5,136,480 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.13 44,902,320 Winter ...............................: 3.16 3.01 30,037,980 30,764,850 Durum ................................: 2.72 1,741,280 Other spring .........................: 3.11 13,123,060 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1.97 1,733,540 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 4,005,220 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.11 109,330 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.62 45,940 Peanuts ................................: 4.50 2,525,670 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.09 8,790 Safflower ..............................: 1.36 74,410 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.33 116,377,000 Sunflower ..............................: 1.96 1,275,750 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 1.07 3,150,040 Upland ...............................: 1.06 3,047,710 American Pima ........................: 1.44 102,330 Sugarbeets .............................: 64.22 29,550,640 Sugarcane ..............................: 83.55 31,453,000 Tobacco ................................: 2.49 202,920 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.20 165,920 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.37 1,172,400 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.96 684,560 Lentils ................................: 1.02 248,980 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 1.90 45,940 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 25,140 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 318,600 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.11 1,520 Potatoes ...............................: 49.09 17,791,840 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.13 750 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2022-2023 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 374 341 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,058 988 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 3,426 2,554 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 736 864 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 9,765.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 29,640 Avocados ..............................tons: 156,900 Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: 621,600 Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: 77,600 Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 231,700 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 244.2 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 25,690 Cranberries .........................barrel: 8,058,000 : Dates .................................tons: 66,150 Grapes ................................tons: 5,922,500 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: 36,500 Nectarines (California) ...............tons: 109,000 Olives (California) ...................tons: 69,700 Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: 8,350 Peaches ...............................tons: 625,680 Pears .................................tons: 644,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: 81,300 Prunes (California) ...................tons: 226,800 Raspberries ...................1,000 pounds: 168,600 Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: 27,820.0 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,565,000 2,500,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 77,500 Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: 37,700 Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 277,700 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: 882,000 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 752,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2022-2023 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 339,290 309,350 Lemons ....................................: 959,800 896,300 Oranges ...................................: 3,108,010 2,316,950 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 667,690 783,810 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,429,330 Apricots ..................................: 26,890 Avocados ..................................: 142,340 Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: 281,950 Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: 35,200 Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 210,190 Cherries, Tart ............................: 110,770 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 11,650 Cranberries ...............................: 365,500 : Dates .....................................: 60,010 Grapes ....................................: 5,372,800 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: 33,110 Nectarines (California) ...................: 98,880 Olives (California) .......................: 63,230 Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: 3,790 Peaches ...................................: 567,610 Pears .....................................: 584,230 Plums (California) ........................: 73,750 Prunes (California) .......................: 205,750 Raspberries ...............................: 76,480 Strawberries ..............................: 1,261,890 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,163,460 1,133,980 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 70,310 Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: 17,100 Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 125,960 Pistachios (California) ...................: 400,070 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 682,200 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. April Weather Summary For much of the month, cool Western weather limited the rate of melting snow. By May 1, the average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack stood near 50 inches, according to the California Department of Water Resources, down about a foot from the seasonal peak of 62 inches. In late April, however, sudden heat led to increases in Western streamflow and local flooding, as well as corresponding dam releases. Seasonably dry weather prevailed during April in much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest, while occasional showers stretched from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies. Farther east, snow was also slow to melt in parts of the north-central United States, helping to hold April temperatures 5 to 7°F below normal in North Dakota locations such as Bismarck, Dickinson, and Minot. The lingering snow cover, accompanied by chilly conditions and low soil temperatures, delayed the onset of spring fieldwork. By April 30, only 19 percent of the Nation's barley and 12 percent of the spring wheat had been planted, compared to respective 5-year averages of 35 and 22 percent. Sugarbeet planting had not begun by the end of April in Minnesota and North Dakota. Snow-melt flooding was observed in parts of the upper Midwest, primarily along the Red, James, and Big Sioux Rivers. Significant flooding also occurred in the upper Mississippi Basin, where top-three crests were reported along the Mississippi River in locations such as La Crosse, Wisconsin (3.89 feet above flood stage on April 26), and Dubuque, Iowa (7.03 feet above flood stage on April 29). In those locations, higher crests were reported only in April 1965 and 2001. In contrast, deeply entrenched drought persisted during April across the central and southern Plains, with adverse impacts on rangeland, pastures, winter grains, and emerging summer crops. By April 30, USDA/NASS rated nearly one-half (42 percent) of the Nation's winter wheat in very poor to poor condition, led by Kansas (64 percent very poor to poor), Oklahoma (61 percent), Texas (57 percent), and Nebraska (51 percent). Although late-April rainfall provided some limited drought relief across the central and southern Plains, the Drought Monitor indicated by May 2 that extreme to exceptional drought (D3 to D4) covered 63 percent of Kansas, along with 47 percent of Nebraska, 33 percent of Oklahoma, and 21 percent of Texas. On May 2, moderate to exceptional drought (D1 to D4) covered 24.42 percent of the contiguous United States, down from 28.23 percent in early April and 62.95 percent on October 25, 2022. Prior to May 2, the last time less than one-quarter of the country was experiencing drought was June 16, 2020, nearly 3 years ago. Still, an area centered over the Nation's mid-section reported extremely dry April weather. For example, North Platte, Nebraska-with monthly precipitation totaling 0.04 inch-tied a 1928 standard for its driest April on record. Additionally, Wichita, Kansas, received a March-April total of 0.72 inch, the driest such period since 1936. Elsewhere, generally wet April weather prevailed across the South, while late-month downpours eased precipitation deficits in the middle and northern Atlantic States. Despite the rain, Southern planting activities remained mostly at or ahead of the normal pace. At the end of April, 63 percent of the intended national rice acreage and 15 percent of the cotton had been planted, versus respective 5-year averages of 49 and 14 percent. In addition, there was sufficient warmth across the eastern one-third of the United States to promote rapid development, including summer crop emergence. In fact, it was the warmest April on record in few Eastern locations, including Burlington, Vermont; Newark, New Jersey; and Brunswick, Georgia. April Agricultural Summary April was cooler than normal for much of the western half of the Nation. Large parts of the Northern Plains and Rockies recorded temperatures 6°F or more below normal. In contrast, except for the Lower Mississippi Valley, much of the eastern half of the Nation was warmer than normal. Parts of Florida, southern Georgia, the Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast recorded temperatures 4°F or more above normal for the month. While most of the Southwest remained dry, higher than normal amounts of precipitation were recorded in much of the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Pacific Northwest, and the South. Parts of the Pacific Northwest and the South recorded 7 inches of rain or more during the month. By April 2, producers had planted 2 percent of the Nation's corn crop, equal to both last year and the 5-year average. By April 16, producers had planted 8 percent of the Nation's corn crop, 4 percentage points ahead of last year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 30, producers had planted 26 percent of the Nation's corn crop, 13 percentage points ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average. At that time, planting progress was furthest advanced in Missouri and Texas with 80 percent and 74 percent planted, respectively. Six percent of the Nation's corn acreage had emerged by April 30, three percentage points ahead of the previous year and 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. Four percent of the Nation's soybean acreage was planted by April 16, three percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Nineteen percent of the Nation's soybean acreage was planted by April 30, twelve percentage points ahead of last year and 8 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 30, planting progress was furthest advanced in Louisiana with 59 percent, 3 percentage points ahead of last year and 20 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 2, six percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was headed, 2 percentage points ahead of last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 16, ten percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was headed, 3 percentage points ahead of last year and 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 30, twenty-five percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was headed, 4 percentage points ahead of last year and 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. On April 30, twenty-eight percent of the 2023 winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition, 1 percentage point above the same time last year. In Kansas, the largest winter wheat-producing State, 64 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated in poor to very poor condition. Nationwide, 4 percent of the cotton crop was planted by April 2, equal to the previous year but 1 percentage point behind the 5-year average. By April 16, eight percent of the cotton crop was planted, 2 percentage points behind the previous year and 1 percentage point behind the 5-year average. By April 30, fifteen percent of the cotton crop was planted, equal to the previous year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. At that time, planting progress was furthest advanced in California with 85 percent planted, 9 percentage points behind last year but 20 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Thirteen percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage was planted by April 2, equal to both last year and the 5-year average. Fifteen percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage was planted by April 16, two percentage points behind both the previous year and the 5-year average. Twenty-one percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage was planted by April 30, one percentage point ahead of the previous year but 1 percentage point behind the 5-year average. Texas had planted 69 percent of its sorghum acreage by April 30, three percentage points ahead of the previous year but equal to the 5-year average. By April 2, producers had seeded 17 percent of the 2023 rice acreage, 6 percentage points ahead of the previous year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 2, ten percent of the Nation's rice acreage had emerged, 4 percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. By April 16, producers had seeded 38 percent of the 2023 rice acreage, 17 percentage points ahead of the previous year and 10 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 16, eighteen percent of the Nation's rice acreage had emerged, 5 percentage points ahead of last year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 30, producers had seeded 63 percent of the 2023 rice acreage, 21 percentage points ahead of the previous year and 14 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. At that time, planting progress was furthest advanced in Louisiana and Texas with 89 percent and 83 percent planted, respectively. By April 30, thirty-nine percent of the Nation's rice acreage had emerged, 16 percentage points ahead of last year and 10 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Nationally, oat producers had seeded 25 percent of this year's acreage by April 2, equal to both last year and the 5-year average. Twenty-four percent of the Nation's oat acreage was emerged by April 2, one percentage point ahead of both the previous year and the 5-year average. Nationally, oat producers had seeded 36 percent of this year's acreage by April 16, three percentage points ahead of the previous year and 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. Twenty-six percent of the Nation's oat acreage was emerged by April 16, two percentage points ahead of the previous year but equal to the 5-year average. Nationally, oat producers had seeded 49 percent of this year's acreage by April 30, five percentage points ahead of the previous year but 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Thirty-three percent of the Nation's oat acreage was emerged by April 30, three percentage points ahead of the previous year but 2 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Five percent of the Nation's barley crop was planted by April 16, eleven percentage points behind last year and 9 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Nineteen percent of the Nation's barley crop was planted by April 30, fifteen percentage points behind last year and 16 percentage points behind the 5-year average. At that time, planting progress was furthest advanced in Washington and Idaho with 55 percent and 47 percent planted, respectively. Three percent of the Nation's barley crop had emerged by April 30, six percentage points behind the previous year and 7 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By April 16, three percent of the spring wheat crop was seeded, 5 percentage points behind last year and 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By April 30, twelve percent of the spring wheat crop was seeded, 6 percentage points behind last year and 10 percentage points behind the 5-year average. At that time, planting progress was furthest advanced in Washington with 74 percent planted, 1 percentage point behind last year and 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By April 30, two percent of the Nation's spring wheat crop had emerged, 3 percentage points behind the previous year and 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Nationally, peanut producers had planted 1 percent of the 2023 peanut acreage by April 16, one percentage point behind both the previous year and the 5-year average. Nationally, peanut producers had planted 8 percent of the 2023 peanut acreage by April 30, one percentage point behind the previous year and 2 percentage points behind the 5-year average. At that time, producers in Florida had planted 24 percent of the 2023 intended acreage by week's end, 1 percentage point behind last year but equal to the 5-year average. By April 16, thirteen percent of the sugarbeet crop was planted, 6 percentage points ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average. By April 30, twenty-four percent of the sugarbeet crop was planted, 7 percentage points ahead of last year but 14 percentage points behind the 5-year average. At that time, planting progress was furthest advanced in Michigan and Idaho with 76 percent and 71 percent planted, respectively. Crop Comments Winter wheat: Production is forecast at 1.13 billion bushels, up 2 percent from 2022. As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at 44.7 bushels per acre, down 2.3 bushels from last year's average yield of 47.0 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain is forecast at 25.3 million acres, up 8 percent from last year. Producers expect to harvest 67 percent of the planted acres for grain. If realized, this harvest ratio would be the lowest since 1917. Dry conditions in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas are factoring into the increased abandonment. As of April 30, twenty-eight percent of the winter wheat acreage in the 18 major producing States was rated in good to excellent condition, one percentage point higher than at the same time last year. Nationally, 25 percent of the winter wheat crop was headed by April 30, two percentage points ahead of the 5-year average pace. As of April 30, the winter wheat crop in Kansas and Oklahoma was rated in poor to very poor condition at 64 percent and 61 percent, respectively. Spring drought conditions have caused condition ratings to worsen compared with last year in these States. As of April 30, the winter wheat crop in Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio was rated in good to excellent condition at 75 percent, 64 percent, and 66 percent, respectively. Warmer temperatures and adequate moisture throughout April aided winter wheat progress in the Great Lakes States. Durum wheat: Production of Durum wheat in Arizona and California is forecast at a collective 6.33 million bushels, down 53 percent from last year. Acreage intended for harvest in these two states is down 50 percent from 2022. Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States farms as of May 1, 2023, totaled 14.5 million tons, down 13 percent from May 1, 2022. The May 1 hay stock level for the United States represents the second lowest amount stored since records began in 1950. Disappearance from December 1, 2022 - May 1, 2023, totaled 57.4 million tons, down 8 percent from the same period a year earlier. Record low May 1 hay stock levels were estimated in Arizona, Colorado, and Rhode Island. Grapefruit: The United States 2022-2023 grapefruit crop is forecast at 341,000 tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 9 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 1.80 million boxes (77,000 tons), is up 6 percent from previous forecast but down 46 percent from the last season. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 864,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 17 percent from the last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 500,000 boxes (24,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 33 percent from last season. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous forecast. Peaches: California peach total production for 2023 is forecast at 480,000 tons, up 1 percent from 2022. The California Freestone forecast, at 270,000 tons, is up 2 percent from last season. Harvest of early Freestone peach varieties is underway. The California Clingstone forecast, at 210,000 tons, is up less than 1 percent from 2022. Full bloom for the California Clingstone crop began on March 14, eight days earlier than last year. All areas of the State reported the highest number of chilling hours in the last ten years. Significant rainfall and cooler than normal temperatures during bloom delayed and extended the bloom period for both types of peaches. Almonds: The 2023 California almond production (shelled basis) is forecast at 2.50 billion pounds, down 3 from the previous year. California growers remain optimistic about the 2023 crop progress; however, weather conditions have presented some uncertainty for almond pollination. In late February, wet and colder-than-average weather conditions were not ideal for pollination. Heavy rains, high winds, hail, fluctuating temperatures, and snowpack following an extended drought have negatively impacted the almond bloom, which usually begins mid-February and lasts until mid-March. In Northern California, a winter storm swept across the State in the latter part of February, bringing some snow to the Sacramento Valley, and growers hadn't seen this in years. With warmer and drier weather in April, California almond growers continue to monitor progression and assess potential damage from the recent rainstorms in the State. 2022 Cotton Final: All cotton production is estimated at 14.5 million 480-pound bales, 17 percent lower than the 2021 crop. The United States yield for all cotton is estimated at 950 pounds per acre, up 131 pounds from the previous year. Upland cotton production is estimated at 14.0 million 480-pound bales, down 19 percent from the 2021 crop. The United States yield for upland cotton is estimated at 942 pounds per acre, up 129 pounds from 2021. American Pima production is estimated at 470,000 bales (480-pounds), up 42 percent from 2021. The United States yield is estimated at 1,280 pounds per acre, down 8 pounds from the previous season. Cottonseed: Cottonseed production in 2022 totaled 4.42 million tons, down 17 percent from the previous year. Sales to oil mills accounted for 44 percent of the disposition. The remaining 56 percent will be used for seed, feed, exports, and various other uses. Statistical Methodology Wheat survey procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between April 24 and May 9 to gather information on expected yield as of May 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in three States (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) where wheat is normally mature enough to make meaningful counts. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's maturity. Counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the heads are clipped, threshed, and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 9,300 producers representing all major production areas. The survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, and internet. These producers were selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable winter wheat acres for harvest and yield on their operation. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields. Orange survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the May 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September of last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Wheat estimating procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each Regional Field Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published May 1 forecasts. Orange estimating procedures: State level objective yield indications for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analysis to prepare the published May 1 forecast. The May 1 orange production forecasts for California and Texas are carried forward from April. Revision Policy: The May 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season wheat estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the wheat marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the May 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the May 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 winter wheat production forecast is 5.7 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 9.9 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the May 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using winter wheat again as an example, changes between the May 1 forecast and final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 69 million bushels, ranging from 5 million to 245 million bushels. The May 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times. This does not imply that the May 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of May 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 3.8 6.5 151 18 450 10 10 Wheat : Winter wheat ........bushels: 5.7 9.9 69 5 245 8 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch..................................................... (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section............................................ (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Progress and Condition...................................... (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans............................................. (202) 690-3234 Natasha Bruton - Barley, Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings.. (202) 690-1042 David Colwell - Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products........................... (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - County Estimates, Hay......................................... (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat..................................................... (202) 720-8068 Chris Hawthorn - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet................................... (202) 720-2127 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................. (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds...................................... (202) 720-7369 Lihan Wei - Peanuts, Rice....................................................... (202) 720-7688 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................... (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco................................................... (202) 720-4288 Robert Little - Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes..................................... (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Garlic, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios.................................................................. (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Blueberries, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes............. (202) 720-4285 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons................ (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans............................. (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov. Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. The new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or subscribe, they are located at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders. 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