Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released February 9, 2022, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 1 Percent from January Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2021-2022 season is 3.88 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 12 percent from the 2020-2021 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 43.5 million boxes (1.96 million tons), is down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 18 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 17.5 million boxes (788,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 23 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 26.0 million boxes (1.17 million tons), is down 4 percent from the previous forecast and down 14 percent from last season's final utilization. The California and Texas orange production forecasts were carried froward from the previous forecast. This report was approved on February 9, 2022. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2020-2021 and Forecasted February 1, 2022......................................................................................... 4 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2020 and 2021......... 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022................................ 11 January Percent of Normal Precipitation Map.............................................................. 12 January Departure from Normal Temperature Map............................................................ 12 January Weather Summary.................................................................................. 13 January Agricultural Summary............................................................................. 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of February 1 Crop Production Forecasts...................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2020-2021 and Forecasted February 1, 2022 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2020-2021 : 2021-2022 : 2020-2021 : 2021-2022 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all 2/ .........: 50,100 47,600 2,004 1,904 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 40,600 39,000 1,624 1,560 Valencia ..................: 9,500 8,600 380 344 : Florida, all ...............: 52,800 43,500 2,377 1,958 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 22,700 17,500 1,022 788 Valencia ..................: 30,100 26,000 1,355 1,170 : Texas, all 2/ ..............: 1,050 400 45 17 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 1,000 300 43 13 Valencia ..................: 50 100 2 4 : United States, all .........: 103,950 91,500 4,426 3,879 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 64,300 56,800 2,689 2,361 Valencia ..................: 39,650 34,700 1,737 1,518 : Grapefruit : California 2/ ..............: 3,900 3,500 156 140 Florida, all ...............: 4,100 4,100 174 174 Texas 2/ ...................: 2,400 1,600 96 64 : United States ..............: 10,400 9,200 426 378 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California 2/ ..............: 28,100 21,000 1,124 840 Florida ....................: 890 800 42 38 : United States ..............: 28,990 21,800 1,166 878 : Lemons 2/ : Arizona ....................: 800 1,400 32 56 California .................: 21,300 23,000 852 920 : United States ..............: 22,100 24,400 884 976 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2020 and 2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons -- : For sugar : Florida ......................: 409.0 388.0 44.3 43.4 18,119 16,839 Louisiana 2/ .................: 461.0 464.0 32.9 29.5 15,167 13,688 Texas 2/ .....................: 33.4 34.2 31.5 31.6 1,052 1,081 : United States ................: 903.4 886.2 38.0 35.7 34,338 31,608 : For seed : Florida ......................: 14.3 15.5 47.3 47.2 676 732 Louisiana 2/ .................: 27.4 30.6 36.5 34.2 1,000 1,047 Texas 2/ .....................: 2.5 2.2 34.3 33.7 86 74 : United States ................: 44.2 48.3 39.9 38.4 1,762 1,853 : For sugar and seed : Florida ......................: 423.3 403.5 44.4 43.5 18,795 17,571 Louisiana 2/ .................: 488.4 494.6 33.1 29.8 16,167 14,735 Texas 2/ .....................: 35.9 36.4 31.7 31.7 1,138 1,155 : United States ................: 947.6 934.5 38.1 35.8 36,100 33,461 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from an earlier estimate. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,660 1,948 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 93,357 85,388 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,481 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 50,736 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 15,246 All other ............................: (NA) 35,490 Oats ...................................: 2,550 650 Proso millet ...........................: 725 662 Rice ...................................: 2,532 2,488 Rye ....................................: 2,133 294 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 7,305 6,490 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 331 Wheat, all .............................: 46,703 37,163 Winter ...............................: 33,648 34,397 25,464 Durum ................................: 1,635 1,534 Other spring .........................: 11,420 10,165 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,152.0 2,089.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 325 268 Mustard seed ...........................: 103.0 89.3 Peanuts ................................: 1,585.2 1,545.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 14.3 12.5 Safflower ..............................: 152.0 135.0 Soybeans for beans .....................: 87,195 86,332 Sunflower ..............................: 1,288.5 1,243.8 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 11,219.5 9,968.3 Upland ...............................: 11,093.0 9,844.5 American Pima ........................: 126.5 123.8 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,160.0 1,107.6 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 934.5 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 218.9 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 368.5 351.0 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,394.0 1,335.6 Dry edible peas ........................: 977.0 834.0 Lentils ................................: 708.0 549.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 60.9 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 44.0 Potatoes ...............................: 943.0 935.7 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 14.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 60.4 117,673 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 177.0 15,115,170 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.1 130,317 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.37 120,196 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.23 49,245 All other ........................tons: 2.00 70,951 Oats ............................bushels: 61.3 39,836 Proso millet ....................bushels: 23.2 15,376 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,709 191,796 Rye .............................bushels: 33.4 9,808 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 69.0 447,810 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 15.4 5,083 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 44.3 1,645,764 Winter ........................bushels: 50.2 1,277,365 Durum .........................bushels: 24.3 37,259 Other spring ..................bushels: 32.6 331,140 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,302 2,720,550 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 5,377.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 10.1 2,708 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 491 43,834 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 4,135 6,389,300 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,809 22,616 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,001 135,175 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 51.4 4,435,232 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,530 1,902,985 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 849 17,624.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 841 17,257.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,423 367.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 33.2 36,751 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 35.8 33,461 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,183 477,973 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 815 2,861 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 1,701 22,721 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,025 8,549 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 606 3,327 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,900 115,630.9 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 3,424 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 757,987 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 104 4,566 Potatoes ............................cwt: 438 409,671 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 119 1,775 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,076,480 788,340 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 37,780,640 34,555,670 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,622,800 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 20,532,350 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,169,900 All other ....................: (NA) 14,362,450 Oats ...........................: 1,031,960 263,050 Proso millet ...................: 293,400 267,900 Rice ...........................: 1,024,680 1,006,870 Rye ............................: 863,200 118,980 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,956,260 2,626,440 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 133,950 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,900,240 15,039,490 Winter .......................: 13,617,010 13,920,120 10,305,030 Durum ........................: 661,670 620,790 Other spring .................: 4,621,560 4,113,670 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 870,890 845,400 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 131,520 108,460 Mustard seed ...................: 41,680 36,140 Peanuts ........................: 641,510 625,250 Rapeseed .......................: 5,790 5,060 Safflower ......................: 61,510 54,630 Soybeans for beans .............: 35,286,940 34,937,700 Sunflower ......................: 521,440 503,350 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,540,420 4,034,070 Upland .......................: 4,489,230 3,983,970 American Pima ................: 51,190 50,100 Sugarbeets .....................: 469,440 448,230 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 378,180 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 88,600 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 149,130 142,050 Dry edible beans ...............: 564,140 540,500 Dry edible peas ................: 395,380 337,510 Lentils ........................: 286,520 222,170 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 24,630 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 17,810 Potatoes .......................: 381,620 378,670 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 6,030 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.25 2,562,030 Corn for grain .........................: 11.11 383,943,000 Corn for silage ........................: 45.07 118,221,590 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.31 109,039,980 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.24 44,674,310 All other ............................: 4.48 64,365,660 Oats ...................................: 2.20 578,220 Proso millet ...........................: 1.30 348,720 Rice ...................................: 8.64 8,699,720 Rye ....................................: 2.09 249,130 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.33 11,374,900 Sorghum for silage .....................: 34.42 4,611,220 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 2.98 44,790,360 Winter ...............................: 3.37 34,764,180 Durum ................................: 1.63 1,014,020 Other spring .........................: 2.19 9,012,150 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1.46 1,234,020 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 4,877,930 Flaxseed ...............................: 0.63 68,790 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.55 19,880 Peanuts ................................: 4.64 2,898,140 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.03 10,260 Safflower ..............................: 1.12 61,310 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.45 120,707,230 Sunflower ..............................: 1.71 863,180 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.95 3,837,170 Upland ...............................: 0.94 3,757,270 American Pima ........................: 1.59 79,900 Sugarbeets .............................: 74.38 33,339,950 Sugarcane ..............................: 80.27 30,355,310 Tobacco ................................: 2.45 216,800 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 0.91 129,770 Dry edible beans .......................: 1.91 1,030,610 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.15 387,780 Lentils ................................: 0.68 150,910 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.13 52,450 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 17,120 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 343,820 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.12 2,070 Potatoes ...............................: 49.07 18,582,370 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.13 810 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2021-2022 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 426 378 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 884 976 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 4,426 3,879 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,166 878 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,525.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 55,500 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 369,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 142.0 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 27,120 Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,900,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 6,470,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 696,500 Pears .................................tons: 670,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,800,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 258,000 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 670,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2020-2021 and 2021-2022. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2021-2022 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 386,460 342,920 Lemons ....................................: 801,950 885,410 Oranges ...................................: 4,015,200 3,518,970 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 1,057,780 796,510 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,774,060 Apricots ..................................: 50,350 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 334,750 Cherries, Tart ............................: 64,410 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 12,300 Cranberries ...............................: 358,340 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,869,490 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 631,850 Pears .....................................: 607,810 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,270,060 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 117,030 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 607,810 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2020-2021 and 2021-2022. January Weather Summary As 2021 ended, the water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack stood close to 15 inches, nearly 160 percent of the late-December average, according to the California Department of Water Resources. Incredibly, less than an inch was added during January to that snowpack, leaving the early-February water equivalency at 16 inches, about 90 percent of the average for the date. Disappointingly low January precipitation totals were also reported across the remainder of California and the Great Basin, as well as the Southwest. In contrast, wet weather persisted early in the month across the Pacific Northwest, while periods of precipitation provided varying degrees of drought relief from the northern and central Rockies to the northern Plains. Meanwhile, Southwestern dryness extended across the southern half of the Plains, where intensifying drought adversely affected rangeland, pastures, and winter grains. By January 23, more than one-quarter of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition in several key production states, including Kansas (31 percent), Colorado (40 percent), Oklahoma (43 percent), and Texas (71 percent). Drought impacts extended to the northern High Plains, where 65 percent of Montana's winter wheat was rated very poor to poor. On the same date, USDA/NASS rated topsoil moisture at least 40 percent very short to short in each of the ten states encompassing the Plains and the eastern slopes of the Rockies, ranging from 41 percent in North Dakota to 87 percent in New Mexico. Farther east, an overall cold but quiet Midwestern weather pattern was interrupted by a mid-January storm, which delivered wind-driven snow, mainly west of the Mississippi River. In fact, parts of the upper Midwest were subjected to sustained cold weather, interspersed with periods of gusty winds and light snow, leading to rural travel difficulties and increased livestock stress. Monthly temperatures broadly averaged at least 5°F below normal from the Midwest to the interior Northeast. Cold weather occasionally reached the Deep South, culminating in freezes across parts of Florida on January 24 and 30. During the latter cold snap, Daytona Beach, Florida (31°F on January 30), experienced its first freeze since January 19, 2018. In contrast, generally mild weather prevailed from the Pacific Coast to the High Plains, although cooler air began to settle across the Northwest late in the month. Parts of the Northwest also dealt with extended periods of air stagnation and foggy conditions. On the other side of the Rockies, windy weather frequently raked the High Plains, keeping winter wheat's protective snow cover at a minimum. On the southern Plains, windy, dry weather led to several, mid-winter grassfires, including the 1,700-acre Mill Creek Fire in Shackelford County, Texas, which was sparked on January 15. A rare winter wildfire-the Colorado Fire-also burned along the central California coastline near Big Sur, torching nearly 700 acres of vegetation, starting on January 21. During the 5-week period ending February 1, drought coverage in the contiguous United States was nearly unchanged at 55 percent. According to the United States Drought Monitor, drought has covered more than 40 percent of the Lower 48 States for 71 consecutive weeks (September 29, 2020, to present), breaking the modern-day record of 68 weeks set from June 19, 2012 - October 1, 2013. Drought remained especially pervasive across the western half of the Nation, with 88 percent of the 11-state Western region experiencing drought in early February. Elsewhere, several rounds of wintry weather affected parts of the South and East, contributing to above-normal January precipitation in some areas. The same storm system that delivered mid-month wind and snow across the upper Midwest later produced significant snow and ice accumulations from the southern Appalachians into the Northeast. Late in the month, a rapidly intensifying coastal storm resulted in blizzard conditions for the first time in more than 4 years along the middle and northern Atlantic Coast. January Agricultural Summary January was cooler than normal for most of the eastern half of the Nation. Cooler than normal temperatures were also recorded for most of the Southern Plains and large parts of the Pacific Northwest. Much of the Great Lakes, Idaho, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Northeast recorded temperatures 4°F or more below normal. In contrast, most of California and large parts of the Northern Plains, Central Rockies, and Southwest were warmer than normal. Locations in Colorado, Montana, and Utah recorded temperatures 6°F or more above normal. While most of the Nation remained drier than normal during January, higher than normal amounts of precipitation were recorded in large parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Mississippi Valley, and Central Rockies. Parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, as well as select locations in Arizona, South Florida, South Texas, and Washington also recorded higher than normal amounts of precipitation. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2021-2022 grapefruit crop is forecast at 378,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 11 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 4.10 million boxes (174,000 tons), is unchanged from previous forecast and unchanged from the last season. The California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 878,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 25 percent from the last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 800,000 boxes (38,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 10 percent from last year. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous forecast. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 33.5 million tons, up 1 percent from last month but down 7 percent from 2020. Producers intend to harvest 934,500 acres for sugar and seed during the 2021 crop year, down slightly from last month and down 1 percent from 2020. Yields for sugar and seed are expected to average 35.8 tons per acre, up 0.6 ton from last month but down 2.9 tons from 2020. The Louisiana and Texas sugarcane forecast were carried forward from the previous forecast. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower survey on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 5.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 5.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.8 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the February 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using oranges again as an example, changes between the February 1 forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 287,000 tons, ranging from 18,000 tons to 843,000 tons. The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times. This does not imply that the February 1 orange forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of February 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 5.1 8.8 287 18 843 7 13 Sugarcane ...............tons: 3.0 5.1 1 (Z) 3 4 16 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (Z) Less than half of the unit shown. 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................. (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Oats, Soybeans (202) 690-3234 David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - Barley, County Estimates, Hay (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds................................... (202) 720-7369 Lihan Wei - Peanuts, Rice.................................................... (202) 720-7688 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................ (202) 720-2127 .................................................................................. Fleming Gibson - Blueberries, Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......... (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Apples, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco................................................ (202) 720-4288 Robert Little - Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes.................................. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Garlic, Grapefruit, Hazelnuts, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges..... (202) 720-5412 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons............. (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans.......................... (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. 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