Crop Production
ISSN: 1936-3737
Released April 9, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Orange Production Up Slightly from March Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2014-2015 season is
6.68 million tons, up slightly from the previous forecast but down 1 percent
from the revised 2013-2014 final utilization. The Florida all orange
forecast, at 102 million boxes (4.59 million tons), is unchanged from the
previous forecast but down 3 percent from last season's revised final
utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at
47.0 million boxes (2.12 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast
but down 12 percent last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia
orange forecast, at 55.0 million boxes (2.48 million tons), is unchanged from
the previous forecast but up 7 percent from last season's revised final
utilization.
The California Valencia orange forecast is 10.0 million boxes (400,000 tons),
unchanged from the previous forecast but down 7 percent from last season's
revised final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is
40.0 million boxes (1.60 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast
but up 3 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The Texas all
orange forecast, at 2.18 million boxes (93,000 tons), is up 8 percent from
the previous forecast and up 23 percent from last season's final utilization.
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the
2014-2015 season is 1.54 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 1 percent
from the March forecast and down 2 percent from last season's final yield of
1.57 gallons per box. The non-Valencia portion is finalized at 1.42 gallons
per box, down 2 percent from last month and down 7 percent from last season's
yield. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.65 gallons, unchanged from last
month's forecast but up slightly from last season's final yield of 1.64
gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships
this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.
This report was approved on April 9, 2015.
Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Karis T. Gutter
Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
James M. Harris
Contents
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2013-2014 and Forecasted
April 1, 2015............................................................................................ 5
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2014 and 2015.. 6
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2014 and 2015.... 8
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2014 and 2015.............................. 10
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2014 and 2015................................ 11
Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12
Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12
March Weather Summary.................................................................................... 13
March Agricultural Summary............................................................................... 13
Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14
Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 16
Information Contacts..................................................................................... 17
This page intentionally left blank.
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2013-2014 and
Forecasted April 1, 2015
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the
following year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent
Crop and State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2013-2014 : 2014-2015 : 2013-2014 : 2014-2015
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------- 1,000 boxes ------- ------- 1,000 tons ------
Oranges :
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ :
California .................: 38,700 40,000 1,548 1,600
Florida ....................: 53,300 47,000 2,399 2,115
Texas ......................: 1,400 1,800 60 77
:
United States ..............: 93,400 88,800 4,007 3,792
:
Valencia :
California .................: 10,700 10,000 428 400
Florida ....................: 51,400 55,000 2,313 2,475
Texas ......................: 376 380 16 16
:
United States ..............: 62,476 65,380 2,757 2,891
:
All :
California .................: 49,400 50,000 1,976 2,000
Florida ....................: 104,700 102,000 4,712 4,590
Texas ......................: 1,776 2,180 76 93
:
United States ..............: 155,876 154,180 6,764 6,683
:
Grapefruit :
White :
Florida ....................: 4,150 3,000 176 128
:
Colored :
Florida ....................: 11,500 10,000 489 425
:
All :
California .................: 3,850 3,800 154 152
Florida ....................: 15,650 13,000 665 553
Texas ......................: 5,700 7,000 228 280
:
United States ..............: 25,200 23,800 1,047 985
:
Tangerines and mandarins :
Arizona 3/ ...................: 200 220 8 9
California 3/ ................: 14,700 16,000 588 640
Florida ......................: 2,900 2,300 138 109
:
United States ................: 17,800 18,520 734 758
:
Lemons :
Arizona ......................: 1,800 2,150 72 86
California ...................: 18,800 20,000 752 800
:
United States ................: 20,600 22,150 824 886
:
Tangelos :
Florida ......................: 880 700 40 32
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80,
Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80;
tangelos-90.
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida
and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in Florida.
3/ Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units -
United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year. Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 acres
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .................................: 2,975 3,258 2,443
Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 90,597 89,199 83,136
Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,371
Hay, all ...............................: (NA) (NA) 57,092 57,093
Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 18,445
All other ............................: (NA) 38,647
Oats ...................................: 2,723 2,931 1,029
Proso millet ...........................: 505 430
Rice ...................................: 2,939 2,915 2,919
Rye ....................................: 1,434 258
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 7,138 7,900 6,401
Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 315
Wheat, all .............................: 56,822 55,367 46,381
Winter ...............................: 42,399 40,751 32,304
Durum ................................: 1,398 1,647 1,337
Other spring .........................: 13,025 12,969 12,740
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .................................: 1,714.0 1,554.0 1,555.7
Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) (X)
Flaxseed ...............................: 311 401 302
Mustard seed ...........................: 33.6 31.2
Peanuts ................................: 1,354.0 1,481.0 1,325.0
Rapeseed ...............................: 2.2 2.1
Safflower ..............................: 181.5 170.2
Soybeans for beans .....................: 83,701 84,635 83,061
Sunflower ..............................: 1,560.8 1,786.0 1,507.6
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all ............................: 11,037.0 9,549.0 9,707.4
Upland ...............................: 10,845.0 9,399.0 9,518.0
American Pima ........................: 192.0 150.0 189.4
Sugarbeets .............................: 1,161.6 1,182.1 1,147.2
Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 874.1
Tobacco ................................: (NA) (NA) 378.4 345.3
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas ...................: 24.0 20.0 16.8
Dry edible beans .......................: 1,718.9 1,742.9 1,665.7
Dry edible peas ........................: 935.0 1,005.0 899.5
Lentils ................................: 281.0 385.0 259.0
Wrinkled seed peas .....................: (NA) (NA)
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) ........................: (NA) 7.9
Hops ...................................: (NA) 38.0
Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 63.1
Potatoes, all ..........................: 1,061.1 1,049.5
Spring ...............................: 73.8 73.0 71.1
Summer ...............................: 50.4 48.9
Fall .................................: 936.9 929.5
Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 24.4
Sweet potatoes .........................: 137.3 137.7 135.2
Taro (Hawaii) 2/ .......................: (NA) 0.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units -
United States: 2014 and 2015 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year. Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield per acre : Production
Crop :----------------------------------------------
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 -----
:
Grains and hay :
Barley ..........................bushels: 72.4 176,794
Corn for grain ..................bushels: 171.0 14,215,532
Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.1 128,048
Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.45 139,798
Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.33 61,446
All other ........................tons: 2.03 78,352
Oats ............................bushels: 67.7 69,684
Proso millet ....................bushels: 31.4 13,483
Rice 3/ .............................cwt: 7,572 221,035
Rye .............................bushels: 27.9 7,189
Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 67.6 432,575
Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.1 4,123
Wheat, all ......................bushels: 43.7 2,025,651
Winter ........................bushels: 42.6 1,377,526
Durum .........................bushels: 39.7 53,087
Other spring ..................bushels: 46.7 595,038
:
Oilseeds :
Canola ...........................pounds: 1,614 2,510,995
Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 5,314.0
Flaxseed ........................bushels: 21.1 6,368
Mustard seed .....................pounds: 930 29,004
Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,932 5,210,100
Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,233 2,590
Safflower ........................pounds: 1,226 208,643
Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 47.8 3,968,823
Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,469 2,214,835
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all 3/ ....................bales: 795 16,084.0
Upland 3/ .......................bales: 781 15,496.0
American Pima 3/ ................bales: 1,490 588.0
Sugarbeets .........................tons: 27.4 31,386
Sugarcane ..........................tons: 35.7 31,183
Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,316 876,415
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas 3/ .............cwt: 1,339 225
Dry edible beans 3/ .................cwt: 1,753 29,206
Dry edible peas 3/ ..................cwt: 1,907 17,155
Lentils 3/ ..........................cwt: 1,300 3,367
Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt: (NA) 618
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) ..................pounds: 1,030 8,100
Hops .............................pounds: 1,868 70,995.9
Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 90 5,692
Potatoes, all .......................cwt: 426 446,693
Spring ............................cwt: 318 22,608
Summer ............................cwt: 322 15,756
Fall ..............................cwt: 439 408,329
Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 114 2,784
Sweet potatoes ......................cwt: 219 29,584
Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds: (NA) 3,240
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres.
3/ Yield in pounds.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units -
United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: hectares
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .........................: 1,203,950 1,318,480 988,660
Corn for grain 1/ ..............:36,663,700 36,097,940 33,644,310
Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,578,280
Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 23,104,560 23,104,970
Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 7,464,510
All other ....................: (NA) 15,640,050
Oats ...........................: 1,101,970 1,186,150 416,430
Proso millet ...................: 204,370 174,020
Rice ...........................: 1,189,380 1,179,670 1,181,290
Rye ............................: 580,330 104,410
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,888,680 3,197,050 2,590,420
Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 127,480
Wheat, all 2/ ..................:22,995,300 22,406,470 18,769,930
Winter .......................:17,158,450 16,491,520 13,073,110
Durum ........................: 565,760 666,520 541,070
Other spring .................: 5,271,090 5,248,420 5,155,750
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .........................: 693,640 628,890 629,580
Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) (X)
Flaxseed .......................: 125,860 162,280 122,220
Mustard seed ...................: 13,600 12,630
Peanuts ........................: 547,950 599,350 536,210
Rapeseed .......................: 890 850
Safflower ......................: 73,450 68,880
Soybeans for beans .............:33,872,960 34,250,940 33,613,960
Sunflower ......................: 631,640 722,780 610,110
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:
Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,466,560 3,864,380 3,928,490
Upland .......................: 4,388,860 3,803,680 3,851,840
American Pima ................: 77,700 60,700 76,650
Sugarbeets .....................: 470,090 478,380 464,260
Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 353,740
Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 153,120 139,730
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas ...........: 9,710 8,090 6,800
Dry edible beans ...............: 695,620 705,330 674,090
Dry edible peas ................: 378,390 406,710 364,020
Lentils ........................: 113,720 155,810 104,810
Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA)
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 3,200
Hops ...........................: (NA) 15,380
Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 25,540
Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 429,420 424,720
Spring .......................: 29,870 29,540 28,770
Summer .......................: 20,400 19,790
Fall .........................: 379,150 376,160
Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 9,870
Sweet potatoes .................: 55,560 55,730 54,710
Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ...............: (NA) 150
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2014 and 2015 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year. Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield per hectare : Production
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: metric tons
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .................................: 3.89 3,849,230
Corn for grain .........................: 10.73 361,091,140
Corn for silage ........................: 45.05 116,163,190
Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.49 126,822,610
Alfalfa ..............................: 7.47 55,742,870
All other ............................: 4.54 71,079,740
Oats ...................................: 2.43 1,011,460
Proso millet ...........................: 1.76 305,790
Rice ...................................: 8.49 10,025,980
Rye ....................................: 1.75 182,610
Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.24 10,987,910
Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.34 3,740,320
Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 2.94 55,129,190
Winter ...............................: 2.87 37,490,110
Durum ................................: 2.67 1,444,790
Other spring .........................: 3.14 16,194,280
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .................................: 1.81 1,138,970
Cottonseed .............................: (X) 4,820,780
Flaxseed ...............................: 1.32 161,750
Mustard seed ...........................: 1.04 13,160
Peanuts ................................: 4.41 2,363,260
Rapeseed ...............................: 1.38 1,170
Safflower ..............................: 1.37 94,640
Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.21 108,013,660
Sunflower ..............................: 1.65 1,004,630
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.89 3,501,880
Upland ...............................: 0.88 3,373,860
American Pima ........................: 1.67 128,020
Sugarbeets .............................: 61.33 28,472,900
Sugarcane ..............................: 79.97 28,288,740
Tobacco ................................: 2.60 397,540
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Austrian winter peas ...................: 1.50 10,180
Dry edible beans .......................: 1.97 1,324,760
Dry edible peas ........................: 2.14 778,140
Lentils ................................: 1.46 152,720
Wrinkled seed peas .....................: (NA) 28,030
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Coffee (Hawaii) ........................: 1.15 3,670
Hops ...................................: 2.09 32,200
Peppermint oil .........................: 0.10 2,580
Potatoes, all 2/ .......................: 47.71 20,261,650
Spring ...............................: 35.64 1,025,480
Summer ...............................: 36.11 714,680
Fall .................................: 49.24 18,521,490
Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.13 1,260
Sweet potatoes .........................: 24.53 1,341,910
Taro (Hawaii) ..........................: (NA) 1,470
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Total may not add due to rounding.
3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2014-2015 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :-----------------------------------
: 2014 : 2015
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000
:
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit ............................tons: 1,047 985
Lemons ................................tons: 824 886
Oranges ...............................tons: 6,764 6,683
Tangelos (Florida) ....................tons: 40 32
Tangerines and mandarins ..............tons: 734 758
:
Noncitrus :
Apples ....................... 1,000 pounds: 11,251.2
Apricots ..............................tons: 64.1
Bananas (Hawaii) ....................pounds:
Grapes ................................tons: 7,769.6
Olives (California) ...................tons: 82.3
Papayas (Hawaii) ....................pounds:
Peaches ...............................tons: 846.6
Pears .................................tons: 808.2
Prunes, dried (California) ............tons: 95.0
Prunes and plums (excludes California) tons: 14.8
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) .......pounds: 1,870,000
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 36.0
Pecans, in-shell ....................pounds: 265,370
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 565.0
Maple syrup ........................gallons: 3,167
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2014-2015 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :-----------------------------------
: 2014 : 2015
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: metric tons
:
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit ................................: 949,820 893,580
Lemons ....................................: 747,520 803,770
Oranges ...................................: 6,136,200 6,062,720
Tangelos (Florida) ........................: 36,290 29,030
Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 665,870 687,650
:
Noncitrus :
Apples ....................................: 5,103,460
Apricots ..................................: 58,180
Bananas (Hawaii) ..........................:
Grapes ....................................: 7,048,490
Olives (California) .......................: 74,660
Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................:
Peaches ...................................: 768,040
Pears .....................................: 733,200
Prunes, dried (California) ................: 86,180
Prunes and plums (excludes California) ....: 13,430
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 848,220
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 32,660
Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 120,370
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 512,560
Maple syrup ...............................: 15,830
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.
March Weather Summary
Warm, dry weather dominated the western and central United States,
particularly from California to the central Plains and the upper Midwest. The
early-spring warmth and dryness assured California and the Great Basin of a
fourth consecutive year of drought and caused declines in winter wheat
condition on the Great Plains. In addition, Western warmth triggered
premature melting of already meager mountain snowpack, leaving the Sierra
Nevada with just 5 percent of its average snow-water equivalency by April 1.
Spring snowpack conditions were not much better in several other regions,
including the Southwest and Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, more than one-fifth
of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition by April 5 in
Nebraska (30 percent), South Dakota (27 percent), and Kansas (23 percent).
Farther east, dry conditions in the upper Midwest contrasted with saturated
soils in parts of the lower Midwest, including the Ohio Valley. In fact,
March rainfall and melting snow triggered widespread lowland flooding and
curtailed fieldwork in a broad area stretching southwestward from the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys to the western Gulf Coast region, including the
northern Mississippi Delta. By April 5, planting in Texas was behind schedule
for crops such as corn (37 percent planted versus the 5-year average of
50 percent); sorghum (23 versus 40 percent); rice (21 versus 47 percent); and
cotton (1 versus 10 percent). In Arkansas, rice planting was 6 percent
complete by April 5, compared to the 5-year average of 13 percent.
Elsewhere, generally drier-than-normal conditions prevailed in the Northeast
and Southeast, although frigid weather in the former region contrasted with
warmth farther south. By month's end, snow still covered parts of the
Northeast, with a foot reported on the ground by March 31 in Caribou, Maine.
Meanwhile, a late-month cold snap threatened peaches, blueberries, and other
blooming fruit crops in the Southeast, where a freeze occurred as far south
as central Georgia on March 29.
March Agricultural Summary
Most of the United States recorded little precipitation for the month of
March with large portions of the Great Plains, the Great Basin, and
California recording under 25 percent of normal precipitation. The major
exception to this trend occurred in a band stretching from east Texas across
the Mississippi Delta and the Ohio River Valley where locations received
6 to 12 inches of rainfall for the month. Temperatures were above average
across the western United States with scattered locations across California,
Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota recording average temperatures
more than 10°F above normal. A band stretching from Texas, the Mississippi
Delta, the eastern Corn Belt, and New England recorded below average
temperatures for the month with temperatures more than 6°F below normal in
New York and New England.
Winter wheat conditions deteriorated in several northern Great Plains States.
Kansas producers reported 39 percent of the winter wheat crop in good to
excellent condition on March 29, down 5 percentage points from March 1.
Condition ratings in Nebraska and South Dakota dropped to 34 and 35 percent
in the good to excellent categories, respectively. These ratings were down 28
and 14 percentage points, respectively, from the beginning of the month. In
Kansas, the winter wheat crop was 15 percent in the jointing stage or beyond
on March 29, 10 percentage points ahead of last year but 3 percentage points
behind the 5-year average. Colorado's winter wheat was 2 percent jointing at
the end of the month, equal to last year and slightly behind the 5-year
average.
By the end of the month, Texas pasture and range condition was reported at
47 percent in the good to excellent categories, 24 percentage points above
the 5-year average. Alabama and New Mexico had rated pasture and range
condition at 49 percent good to excellent. Cold and wet conditions led to
less favorable pasture ratings in other parts of the United States with
Virginia at 25 percent, North Carolina at 27 percent, and Arkansas at
28 percent in the good to excellent categories, respectively.
At the beginning of the month, wheat, oats, and other winter forage crops
continued to grow well in California. Alfalfa fields were cultivated and
planted. Ground was prepared for planting and beds were shaped in some
fields, while others remained fallow awaiting warmer weather for planting.
Alfalfa fields were irrigated and treated for pests. Alfalfa seed fields
regrew after a short dormancy period. Established alfalfa was making good
progress. Field preparations were underway for the spring planting of corn
and cotton. Growers prepared ground for the upcoming cotton season by tilling
soil, making furrows, and repairing drip tape. By the end of the month,
irrigation of field crops continued due to the lack of rain in the State.
Growers were reporting the need to pre-irrigate fields to maintain moisture
levels so that there will be sufficient levels when they do plant. Planting
schedules were a couple of weeks ahead of average. Field preparations were
underway for the spring planting of corn and cotton. Forage and grain crops
continued to grow well but slowly, with wheat beginning to head out. Most
weed spraying in forage crops came to an end and insect spraying began,
particularly for alfalfa weevil in alfalfa. First cuttings of alfalfa were
underway and some fields were baled.
In Florida, processing plants finished with early and midseason oranges,
began running grapefruit or had transitioned to late orange harvesting. The
Valencia harvest was lagging behind last season due to low maturity levels.
Honey tangerines, colored grapefruit, white grapefruit, midseason oranges,
Temples, and Valencias were going fresh. Grove activity included fertilizing,
irrigating two to three times a week, some hedging and topping of trees after
harvest, applying of herbicide, and removing brush. Citrus trees were in full
bloom, petal drop began, and small pea size fruit was apparent on early
variety citrus trees.
Crop Comments
Grapefruit: The 2014-2015 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at
985,000 tons, down 5 percent from last month's forecast and down 6 percent
from last season's revised final utilization. In Florida, the row count
survey conducted March 31-April 1 indicated 92 percent of the colored
grapefruit was harvested, while 70 percent of the white grapefruit rows had
been harvested.
Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is
forecast at 758,000 tons, up 1 percent from the March forecast and
up 3 percent from last season's revised final utilization. In California,
mandarins were being packed in both the Central Valley and Fillmore areas. In
Florida, harvest of early season varieties (Fallglo and Sunburst) was
complete for the season, while the harvest of the Honey tangerine continued
at a normal pace.
Lemons: The forecast for the 2014-2015 United States lemon crop is
886,000 tons, up 8 percent from last season's revised final utilization. In
California, lemon harvest was progressing at a steady pace.
Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 700,000 boxes (32,000 tons),
unchanged from last month's forecast but down 20 percent from last season's
final utilization. The harvest in Florida is now complete, where production
is the lowest since the 1960-1961 season.
Florida citrus: Daily high temperatures were above average all month in the
citrus growing region, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s on most days.
Minimum temperatures were mostly in the 50s and 60s. Precipitation was very
light until the final week of the month when much needed rainfall fell in all
citrus producing counties. Reported totals were between one and a half and
two inches in several counties. According to the March 31, 2015 U.S. Drought
Monitor, abnormally dry conditions were present in most of Collier County and
in the southern portion of Hendry County.
Processing plants were operating at full capacity by the end of the month,
running mostly grapefruit and Valencia oranges. Colored grapefruit, Valencia
oranges, and Honey tangerines were the varieties being harvested in
significant quantities for the fresh market. Small amounts of white
grapefruit, midseason oranges, and Temples also went to the fresh market.
Most grove owners reported irrigating two to three times a week; some applied
herbicide, mowed, performed irrigation maintenance, and removed brush.
Various methods of combating greening and controlling psyllid population were
implemented, including tenting, steam treatment, and spraying. Field workers
across the citrus region observed heavy bloom on all citrus varieties, which
was over by the end of the month. Next season's crop was beginning to form
with small pea size fruit apparent on all varieties.
California citrus: Early citrus varieties began to bloom. Navel orange
harvest continued; navel orange quality has been very good this season.
Minneola Tangelos, sweet limes, and lemons continued to be harvested and
packed. Orange trees were topped in advance of the bloom. Seedless Mandarins
and Clementine groves and Murcotts continued to be covered with netting to
prevent cross pollination. Pomelos were picked and packed. Citrus groves
continued to be hedge rowed, topped, and skirted.
California noncitrus fruits and nuts: The pruning of stone fruit orchards was
completed in March. Bloom was complete on early stone fruit varieties; later
varieties of stone fruit began to bloom. Preventive fungicide applications
were made to protect the blooms from brown rot and shot hole fungus. Fruit
trees were leafing out. Soil fumigations were ongoing for new orchard
plantings of almond and pistachios. Nut sizing in almonds began as the almond
bloom neared completion. Nitrogen applications continued in almond orchards.
By end of the month, most walnut varieties were reported to be in the catkin
stage. Some grapevines were still being pruned and tied. Mechanical and
chemical weed control continued in fruit tree orchards and vineyards. Warm
temperatures caused very early bloom in many fruit orchards. Persimmon and
pomegranate trees were leafing out around the end of the month. Aphids were
reported in a few pomegranate orchards. Olive trees continued to be pruned;
some varieties began to bloom. Early and mid-maturing varieties of grapes
continued to leaf out while some late varieties had yet to start.
Statistical Methodology
Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast
was conducted in Florida, which accounts for about 69 percent of the United
States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the
season based on a fruit tree inventory conducted every year, combined with
ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July
to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and
subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are
conducted, which, when combined with the previous components, are used to
develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct
grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April,
and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September
for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida
oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with
historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and
Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their
analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB).
The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published
April 1 forecast.
Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new
forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season
estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in
September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the
end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders,
shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local
utilization and home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1
production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1
production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of
the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is
2.2 percent. However, if you exclude the three abnormal production years (one
freeze season and two hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is
2.4 percent. This means chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange
production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more
than 2.2 percent, or 2.4 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are
9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
3.9 percent, or 4.1 percent, excluding abnormal seasons.
Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during
the past 20 years have averaged 158,000 tons (172,000 tons, excluding
abnormal seasons), ranging from 0 to 431,000 tons regardless of exclusions.
The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times,
above 12 times, and equal to once (below 5 times, above 11 times, and equal
to once excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the
April 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production.
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics
Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov
Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch...................................................... (202) 720-2127
Anthony Prillaman, Head, Field Crops Section.......................................... (202) 720-2127
Angie Considine - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum............................... (202) 720-5944
Tony Dahlman - Crop Weather, Barley.............................................. (202) 720-7621
Chris Hawthorn - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet.................................... (202) 720-9526
James Johanson - County Estimates, Hay........................................... (202) 690-8533
Anthony Prillaman - Oats, Rye, Wheat............................................. (202) 720-2127
Bianca Pruneda - Peanuts, Rice................................................... (202) 720-7688
Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds............................. (202) 720-7369
Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............... (202) 720-2127
Vincent Davis - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries, Cherries.. (202) 720-2157
Fleming Gibson - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits............ (202) 720-5412
Greg Lemmons - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ................... (202) 720-4285
Dave Losh - Hops................................................................. (360) 709-2400
Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,
Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans ................... (202) 720-3250
Daphne Schauber - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ................. (202) 720-4215
Chris Singh - Apples, Apricots, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco .......................... (202) 720-4288
Access to NASS Reports
For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following
ways:
All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web
site: http://www.nass.usda.gov
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For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural
Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail:
nass@nass.usda.gov.
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