Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released July 12, 2021, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Winter Wheat Production Up 4 Percent from June Forecast Durum Wheat Production Down 46 Percent from 2020 Other Spring Wheat Production Down 41 Percent from 2020 Orange Production Up 2 Percent from June Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.36 billion bushels, up 4 percent from the June 1 forecast and up 16 percent from 2020. As of July 1, the United States yield is forecast at 53.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushel from last month and up 2.7 bushels from last year's average yield of 50.9 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.4 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2021, but up 11 percent from last year. Hard Red Winter production, at 805 million bushels, is up 4 percent from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 362 million bushels, is up 8 percent from the June forecast. White Winter, at 198 million bushels, is down 2 percent from last month. Of the White Winter production, 16.4 million bushels are Hard White and 181 million bushels are Soft White. Durum wheat production is forecast at 37.2 million bushels, down 46 percent from 2020. Based on July 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 25.8 bushels per harvested acre, down 15.6 bushels from 2020. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 1.44 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2021, but down 13 percent from 2020. Other spring wheat production for grain is forecast at 345 million bushels, down 41 percent from last year. Based on July 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 30.7 bushels per harvested acre, down 17.9 bushels from 2020. If realized, this would be the lowest yield since 2002 for the United States. Area harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 11.2 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2021, but 7 percent below 2020. Of the total production, 305 million bushels are Hard Red Spring wheat, down 42 percent from 2020. The United States all orange forecast for the 2020-2021 season is 4.60 million tons, up 2 percent the previous forecast but down 12 percent from the 2019-2020 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 52.8 million boxes (2.38 million tons), is up slightly from the previous forecast but down 22 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 22.7 million boxes (1.02 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 23 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 30.1 million boxes (1.35 million tons), is up slightly from the previous forecast but down 20 percent from last season's final utilization. The California all orange forecast is 54.5 million boxes (2.18 million tons), is up 5 percent from previous forecast and up 1 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 45.0 million boxes (1.80 million tons), is up 7 percent from the previous forecast and up 4 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 9.50 million boxes (380,000 tons), is down 5 percent from the previous forecast and down 12 percent from last season's final utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.05 million boxes (45,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast and down 22 percent from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on July 12, 2021. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Oat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021...... 4 Barley Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021... 4 Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021................................................................................................ 5 Durum Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021................................................................................................ 6 Other Spring Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021................................................................................................ 6 Wheat Production by Class - United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021................................. 6 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2019-2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021................................................................................................ 7 Tobacco Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class and Type - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021..................................................................................... 8 Apricots Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021............................ 9 Almond Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021.............................. 9 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021..... 10 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021....... 12 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021................................. 14 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021................................... 15 Winter Wheat Objective Yield Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab - United States: 2017-2021............. 16 Winter Wheat Heads per Square Foot - Selected States: 2017-2021............................................. 17 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map......................................................................... 18 Departure from Normal Temperature Map....................................................................... 18 June Weather Summary........................................................................................ 19 June Agricultural Summary................................................................................... 19 Crop Comments............................................................................................... 21 Statistical Methodology..................................................................................... 24 Reliability of July 1 Crop Production Forecasts............................................................. 25 Information Contacts........................................................................................ 26 Oat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres ---- bushels --- 1,000 bushels : California .......: 4 3 75.0 65.0 300 195 Idaho ............: 14 11 102.0 83.0 1,428 913 Illinois .........: 15 30 58.0 75.0 870 2,250 Iowa .............: 73 65 78.0 63.0 5,694 4,095 Kansas ...........: 16 23 52.0 59.0 832 1,357 Maine ............: 22 24 63.0 70.0 1,386 1,680 Michigan .........: 30 25 55.0 53.0 1,650 1,325 Minnesota ........: 160 77 66.0 50.0 10,560 3,850 Montana ..........: 38 20 45.0 55.0 1,710 1,100 Nebraska .........: 29 21 63.0 60.0 1,827 1,260 : New York .........: 32 36 53.0 65.0 1,696 2,340 North Dakota .....: 105 71 78.0 47.0 8,190 3,337 Ohio .............: 15 30 60.0 65.0 900 1,950 Oregon ...........: 7 6 100.0 95.0 700 570 Pennsylvania .....: 55 35 50.0 62.0 2,750 2,170 South Dakota .....: 140 80 77.0 53.0 10,780 4,240 Texas ............: 60 37 45.0 46.0 2,700 1,702 Wisconsin ........: 131 60 63.0 56.0 8,253 3,360 : Other States 1/ ..: 58 68 53.9 53.2 3,129 3,615 : United States ....: 1,004 722 65.1 57.2 65,355 41,309 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Other States include: Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2021 Summary." Barley Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ---- bushels --- 1,000 bushels : Arizona ........: 8 14 122.0 120.0 976 1,680 California .....: 31 22 47.0 60.0 1,457 1,320 Colorado .......: 45 45 145.0 123.0 6,525 5,535 Idaho ..........: 500 460 110.0 81.0 55,000 37,260 Minnesota ......: 50 36 47.0 60.0 2,350 2,160 Montana ........: 725 685 63.0 39.0 45,675 26,715 North Dakota ...: 460 480 63.0 38.0 28,980 18,240 Virginia .......: 7 9 63.0 83.0 441 747 Washington .....: 71 59 90.0 53.0 6,390 3,127 Wyoming ........: 62 64 96.0 105.0 5,952 6,720 : Other States 1/ : 174 170 66.5 63.4 11,578 10,783 : United States ..: 2,133 2,044 77.5 55.9 165,324 114,287 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include: Alaska, Delaware, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Utah, and Wisconsin. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2021 Summary." Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : 2021 : : : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 :-------------------: 2020 : 2021 : : : : June 1 : July 1 : : ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres -------- bushels ------- --- 1,000 bushels --- : Arkansas .......: 75 155 55.0 51.0 51.0 4,125 7,905 California .....: 80 60 75.0 77.0 80.0 6,000 4,800 Colorado .......: 1,520 1,850 27.0 39.0 41.0 41,040 75,850 Idaho ..........: 660 670 101.0 87.0 85.0 66,660 56,950 Illinois .......: 520 650 68.0 75.0 80.0 35,360 52,000 Indiana ........: 250 300 70.0 76.0 81.0 17,500 24,300 Kansas .........: 6,250 6,900 45.0 52.0 55.0 281,250 379,500 Kentucky .......: 340 370 63.0 77.0 86.0 21,420 31,820 Maryland .......: 150 160 73.0 72.0 75.0 10,950 12,000 Michigan .......: 450 570 75.0 80.0 77.0 33,750 43,890 : Mississippi ....: 20 65 48.0 52.0 58.0 960 3,770 Missouri .......: 370 500 62.0 70.0 70.0 22,940 35,000 Montana ........: 1,490 1,700 51.0 51.0 42.0 75,990 71,400 Nebraska .......: 830 840 41.0 51.0 50.0 34,030 42,000 North Carolina .: 350 360 60.0 52.0 54.0 21,000 19,440 North Dakota ...: 33 55 49.0 42.0 35.0 1,617 1,925 Ohio ...........: 490 540 71.0 78.0 82.0 34,790 44,280 Oklahoma .......: 2,600 2,700 40.0 39.0 40.0 104,000 108,000 Oregon .........: 725 695 64.0 50.0 48.0 46,400 33,360 South Dakota ...: 600 680 58.0 55.0 44.0 34,800 29,920 : Tennessee ......: 230 320 59.0 69.0 74.0 13,570 23,680 Texas ..........: 2,050 2,250 30.0 34.0 37.0 61,500 83,250 Virginia .......: 130 125 60.0 60.0 63.0 7,800 7,875 Washington .....: 1,750 1,690 76.0 57.0 55.0 133,000 92,950 Wisconsin ......: 125 240 69.0 71.0 71.0 8,625 17,040 : Other States 1/ : 936 998 55.5 59.6 61.4 51,945 61,300 : United States ..: 23,024 25,443 50.9 53.2 53.6 1,171,022 1,364,205 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2021 Summary." Durum Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2021 : : : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 :-----------------: 2020 : 2021 : : : : June 1 : July 1 : : --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ------- bushels ------ 1,000 bushels : Arizona ........: 43 49 99.0 102.0 95.0 4,257 4,655 California .....: 20 20 87.0 92.0 100.0 1,740 2,000 Idaho ..........: 9 5 89.0 (NA) 89.0 801 445 Montana ........: 685 645 39.0 (NA) 22.0 26,715 14,190 North Dakota ...: 905 725 39.0 (NA) 22.0 35,295 15,950 : United States ..: 1,662 1,444 41.4 (NA) 25.8 68,808 37,240 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. Other Spring Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 acres -- --- bushels --- 1,000 bushels : Idaho ..........: 495 495 91.0 71.0 45,045 35,145 Minnesota ......: 1,360 1,180 53.0 40.0 72,080 47,200 Montana ........: 3,280 2,550 38.0 25.0 124,640 63,750 North Dakota ...: 5,630 5,750 49.0 28.0 275,870 161,000 South Dakota ...: 760 700 47.0 25.0 35,720 17,500 Washington .....: 535 540 61.0 37.0 32,635 19,980 : United States ..: 12,060 11,215 48.6 30.7 585,990 344,575 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat Production by Class - United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021 [Wheat class estimates are based on the latest available data including both surveys and administrative data. The previous end-of-year season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season for States that do not have survey or administrative data available] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : 2020 : 2021 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 bushels : Winter : Hard red ............: 658,640 804,600 Soft red ............: 266,235 362,017 Hard white ..........: 12,179 16,386 Soft white ..........: 233,968 181,202 : Spring : Hard red ............: 530,152 305,395 Hard white ..........: 10,687 8,283 Soft white ..........: 45,151 30,897 Durum ...............: 68,808 37,240 : Total ............ : 1,825,820 1,746,020 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2019-2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2019-2020 : 2020-2021 : 2019-2020 : 2020-2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ------ ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ............: 54,100 54,500 2,164 2,180 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 43,300 45,000 1,732 1,800 Valencia ..................: 10,800 9,500 432 380 : Florida, all ...............: 67,400 52,800 3,033 2,377 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 29,650 22,700 1,334 1,022 Valencia ..................: 37,750 30,100 1,699 1,355 : Texas, all .................: 1,340 1,050 57 45 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 1,150 1,000 49 43 Valencia ..................: 190 50 8 2 : United States, all .........: 122,840 108,350 5,254 4,602 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 74,100 68,700 3,115 2,865 Valencia ..................: 48,740 39,650 2,139 1,737 : Grapefruit : California .................: 4,700 4,400 188 176 Florida, all ...............: 4,850 4,100 207 174 Red 3/ ....................: 4,060 (NA) 173 (NA) White 3/ ..................: 790 (NA) 34 (NA) Texas ......................: 4,400 2,400 176 96 : United States ..............: 13,950 10,900 571 446 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California .................: 22,400 24,000 896 960 Florida ....................: 1,020 890 48 42 : United States ..............: 23,420 24,890 944 1,002 : Lemons : Arizona ....................: 1,800 1,500 72 60 California .................: 25,300 21,500 1,012 860 : United States ..............: 27,100 23,000 1,084 920 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3/ Estimates discontinued in 2020-2021. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Tobacco Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class and Type - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period had not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production Class, type and State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ acres ----- ---- pounds ---- -- 1,000 pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured (11-14) : Georgia ................................: 7,900 8,500 2,440 2,100 19,276 17,850 North Carolina .........................: 102,000 120,000 1,800 1,900 183,600 228,000 South Carolina .........................: 6,000 9,000 1,400 1,900 8,400 17,100 Virginia ...............................: 12,000 14,000 2,200 2,000 26,400 28,000 : United States ..........................: 127,900 151,500 1,858 1,920 237,676 290,950 : Class 2, Fire-cured (21-23) : Kentucky ...............................: 8,300 9,100 2,500 20,750 Tennessee ..............................: 5,800 6,600 2,850 16,530 Virginia ...............................: 250 250 1,900 475 : United States ..........................: 14,350 15,950 2,631 37,755 : Class 3A, Light air-cured : Type 31, Burley : Kentucky .............................: 37,000 37,000 1,950 72,150 North Carolina .......................: 310 290 1,700 527 Pennsylvania .........................: 2,800 2,800 2,500 7,000 Tennessee ............................: 2,800 3,000 1,550 4,340 Virginia .............................: 400 360 1,700 680 : United States ........................: 43,310 43,450 1,956 84,697 : Type 32, Southern Maryland Belt : Pennsylvania .........................: 400 400 2,300 920 : United States ........................: 400 400 2,300 920 : Total light air-cured (31-32) ....... : 43,710 43,850 1,959 85,617 : Class 3B, Dark air-cured (35-37) : Kentucky ...............................: 6,100 6,700 2,350 14,335 Tennessee ..............................: 3,700 4,300 2,300 8,510 : United States ..........................: 9,800 11,000 2,331 22,845 : Class 4, Cigar filler : Type 41, Pennsylvania Seedleaf : Pennsylvania .........................: 2,300 2,300 2,400 5,520 : United States ........................: 2,300 2,300 2,400 5,520 : All tobacco : United States ..........................: 198,060 224,600 1,966 389,413 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Apricots Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total production State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : tons : California ............: 31,200 50,000 Washington ............: 2,200 5,500 : United States .........: 33,400 55,500 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Almond Production - States and United States: 2020 and Forecasted July 1, 2021 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total production (shelled basis) State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 pounds : California ............: 3,115,000 2,800,000 : United States .........: 3,115,000 2,800,000 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,621 2,603 2,133 2,044 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 90,819 92,692 82,467 84,495 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,719 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) (NA) 52,238 51,537 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) (NA) 16,230 16,123 All other ............................: (NA) (NA) 36,008 35,414 Oats ...................................: 2,984 2,352 1,004 722 Proso millet ...........................: 609 600 484 Rice ...................................: 3,036 2,661 2,987 2,616 Rye ....................................: 1,955 2,125 330 364 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 5,880 6,490 5,095 5,785 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 239 Wheat, all .............................: 44,349 46,743 36,746 38,102 Winter ...............................: 30,415 33,683 23,024 25,443 Durum ................................: 1,684 1,480 1,662 1,444 Other spring .........................: 12,250 11,580 12,060 11,215 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1,825.0 2,003.0 1,789.0 1,956.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 305 390 296 366 Mustard seed ...........................: 97.0 88.0 91.4 84.0 Peanuts ................................: 1,664.2 1,632.5 1,615.8 1,596.5 Rapeseed ...............................: 11.2 15.5 10.1 14.5 Safflower ..............................: 136.0 135.0 126.7 127.5 Soybeans for beans .....................: 83,084 87,555 82,318 86,720 Sunflower ..............................: 1,718.7 1,376.0 1,665.7 1,312.0 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 12,092.0 11,719.0 8,274.5 Upland ...............................: 11,890.0 11,577.0 8,080.5 American Pima ........................: 202.0 142.0 194.0 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,162.2 1,162.8 1,142.3 1,133.7 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) (NA) 947.6 948.0 Tobacco ................................: (NA) (NA) 198.1 224.6 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 269.8 341.0 262.9 334.6 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,740.0 1,507.0 1,676.5 1,441.0 Dry edible peas ........................: 999.0 935.0 973.0 887.0 Lentils ................................: 528.0 585.0 514.0 546.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) (NA) 58.6 60.7 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 50.1 Potatoes ...............................: 921.0 943.0 914.1 935.2 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 17.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --------- 1,000 -------- : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 77.5 55.9 165,324 114,287 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 172.0 14,182,479 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.5 137,729 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.43 126,812 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.27 53,067 All other ........................tons: 2.05 73,745 Oats ............................bushels: 65.1 57.2 65,355 41,309 Proso millet ....................bushels: 19.0 9,210 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,619 227,583 Rye .............................bushels: 34.9 11,532 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 73.2 372,960 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.1 3,125 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 49.7 45.8 1,825,820 1,746,020 Winter ........................bushels: 50.9 53.6 1,171,022 1,364,205 Durum .........................bushels: 41.4 25.8 68,808 37,240 Other spring ..................bushels: 48.6 30.7 585,990 344,575 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,931 3,454,950 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,509.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 19.3 5,706 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 895 81,770 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,796 6,133,900 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,971 19,910 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,167 147,800 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.2 4,135,477 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,790 2,982,410 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 847 14,607.5 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 835 14,061.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,352 546.5 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 29.4 33,618 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 38.1 36,100 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 1,966 389,413 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,625 4,273 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 1,966 32,963 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 2,234 21,733 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,442 7,411 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,770 103,810.3 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) (NA) 4,111 3,424 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 816,367 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 99 4,984 Potatoes ............................cwt: 453 414,248 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 121 2,134 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,060,690 1,053,410 863,200 827,190 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,753,540 37,511,530 33,373,570 34,194,280 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,719,110 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 21,140,200 20,856,510 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) (NA) 6,568,120 6,524,820 All other ....................: (NA) (NA) 14,572,080 14,331,690 Oats ...........................: 1,207,590 951,830 406,310 292,190 Proso millet ...................: 246,460 242,810 195,870 Rice ...........................: 1,228,640 1,076,880 1,208,810 1,058,670 Rye ............................: 791,170 859,970 133,550 147,310 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,379,580 2,626,440 2,061,900 2,341,130 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 96,720 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 17,947,600 18,916,420 14,870,740 15,419,500 Winter .......................: 12,308,650 13,631,170 9,317,580 10,296,530 Durum ........................: 681,500 598,940 672,590 584,370 Other spring .................: 4,957,450 4,686,310 4,880,560 4,538,600 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 738,560 810,590 723,990 791,570 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 123,430 157,830 119,790 148,120 Mustard seed ...................: 39,250 35,610 36,990 33,990 Peanuts ........................: 673,490 660,660 653,900 646,090 Rapeseed .......................: 4,530 6,270 4,090 5,870 Safflower ......................: 55,040 54,630 51,270 51,600 Soybeans for beans .............: 33,623,260 35,432,630 33,313,270 35,094,720 Sunflower ......................: 695,540 556,850 674,090 530,950 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,893,510 4,742,560 3,348,610 Upland .......................: 4,811,760 4,685,100 3,270,100 American Pima ................: 81,750 57,470 78,510 Sugarbeets .....................: 470,330 470,570 462,280 458,800 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) (NA) 383,480 383,650 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 80,150 90,890 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 109,190 138,000 106,390 135,410 Dry edible beans ...............: 704,160 609,870 678,460 583,160 Dry edible peas ................: 404,290 378,390 393,760 358,960 Lentils ........................: 213,680 236,740 208,010 220,960 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) (NA) 23,730 24,580 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 20,270 Potatoes .......................: 372,720 381,620 369,930 378,470 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,160 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.17 3.01 3,599,510 2,488,310 Corn for grain .........................: 10.79 360,251,560 Corn for silage ........................: 45.95 124,945,650 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.44 115,041,910 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.33 48,141,570 All other ............................: 4.59 66,900,340 Oats ...................................: 2.33 2.05 948,630 599,600 Proso millet ...........................: 1.07 208,880 Rice ...................................: 8.54 10,322,990 Rye ....................................: 2.19 292,930 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.59 9,473,620 Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.31 2,834,950 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.34 3.08 49,690,680 47,518,880 Winter ...............................: 3.42 3.61 31,870,000 37,127,580 Durum ................................: 2.78 1.73 1,872,650 1,013,510 Other spring .........................: 3.27 2.07 15,948,030 9,377,790 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.16 1,567,140 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 4,090,500 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.21 144,940 Mustard seed ...........................: 1.00 37,090 Peanuts ................................: 4.25 2,782,290 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.21 9,030 Safflower ..............................: 1.31 67,040 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.38 112,549,240 Sunflower ..............................: 2.01 1,352,800 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.95 3,180,410 Upland ...............................: 0.94 3,061,420 American Pima ........................: 1.52 118,990 Sugarbeets .............................: 65.97 30,497,740 Sugarcane ..............................: 85.40 32,749,370 Tobacco ................................: 2.20 176,630 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.82 193,820 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.20 1,495,180 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.50 985,790 Lentils ................................: 1.62 336,160 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 1.98 47,090 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) 20,560 17,120 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 370,300 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.11 2,260 Potatoes ...............................: 50.79 18,789,970 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 970 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2020-2021 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 571 446 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,084 920 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 5,254 4,602 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 944 1,002 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,253.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 33,400 55,500 Avocados ..............................tons: 206,610 Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: 648,200 Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: 47,400 Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 325,100 369,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 139.5 142.0 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 23,870 Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,830,000 : Dates .................................tons: 62,600 Grapes ................................tons: 5,940,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: 40,000 Nectarines (California) ...............tons: 122,500 Olives (California) ...................tons: 67,700 Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: 8,280 Peaches ...............................tons: 617,760 Pears .................................tons: 672,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: 105,000 Prunes (California) ...................tons: 165,880 Raspberries ...................1,000 pounds: 222,000 Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: 23,280.0 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 3,115,000 2,800,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 63,000 Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: 39,500 Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 305,360 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: 1,045,000 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 785,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2019-2020 and 2020-2021. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2020-2021 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2020 : 2021 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 518,000 404,600 Lemons ....................................: 983,390 834,610 Oranges ...................................: 4,766,350 4,174,860 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 856,380 909,000 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,650,680 Apricots ..................................: 30,300 50,350 Avocados ..................................: 187,430 Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: 294,020 Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: 21,500 Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 294,930 334,750 Cherries, Tart ............................: 63,280 64,410 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 10,830 Cranberries ...............................: 355,160 : Dates .....................................: 56,790 Grapes ....................................: 5,388,680 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: 36,290 Nectarines (California) ...................: 111,130 Olives (California) .......................: 61,420 Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: 3,760 Peaches ...................................: 560,420 Pears .....................................: 609,630 Plums (California) ........................: 95,250 Prunes (California) .......................: 150,480 Raspberries ...............................: 100,700 Strawberries ..............................: 1,055,960 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,412,940 1,270,060 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 57,150 Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: 17,920 Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 138,510 Pistachios (California) ...................: 474,000 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 712,140 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2019-2020 and 2020-2021. Winter Wheat for Grain Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 10 winter wheat-producing States during 2021. Randomly selected plots in winter wheat for grain fields are visited monthly from May through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are based on counts from this survey. Winter Wheat Objective Yield Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab - United States: 2017-2021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : June : July : August Year :----------------------------------------------------------- : Mature 1/ : Mature 1/ : Mature 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent : 2017 ..........: 28 69 93 2018 ..........: 18 69 93 2019 ..........: 8 50 89 2020 ..........: 14 64 92 2021 ..........: 7 64 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes winter wheat in the hard dough stage or beyond and are considered mature or almost mature. Winter Wheat Heads per Square Foot - Selected States: 2017-2021 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2017 : 2018 : 2019 : 2020 : 2021 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : number : Colorado : July ................: 43.4 40.6 49.3 43.0 49.9 August ..............: 43.2 41.0 50.8 42.7 Final ...............: 43.2 41.0 50.8 42.7 : Illinois : July ................: 56.4 60.9 48.1 52.5 63.3 August ..............: 56.4 60.9 49.2 52.4 Final ...............: 56.4 60.9 49.2 52.4 : Kansas : July ................: 44.3 37.3 46.9 45.3 51.4 August ..............: 44.6 37.3 47.2 45.4 Final ...............: 44.6 37.3 47.2 45.4 : Missouri : July ................: 53.9 53.7 56.4 52.5 55.4 August ..............: 53.9 53.7 56.4 52.5 Final ...............: 53.9 53.7 56.4 52.5 : Montana : July ................: 44.4 44.1 45.2 37.4 40.2 August ..............: 46.2 44.8 43.5 38.8 Final ...............: 46.2 44.7 43.1 38.6 : Nebraska : July ................: 52.5 50.5 53.1 45.8 47.7 August ..............: 53.3 50.4 53.7 45.7 Final ...............: 53.3 50.4 53.7 45.7 : Ohio : July ................: 58.2 70.3 52.0 64.1 66.7 August ..............: 58.2 70.3 53.0 63.9 Final ...............: 58.2 70.3 53.0 63.9 : Oklahoma : July ................: 35.7 32.9 38.1 38.2 38.2 August ..............: 35.7 32.4 38.1 38.3 Final ...............: 35.7 32.4 38.1 38.3 : Texas : July ................: 26.6 30.9 34.3 32.7 32.1 August ..............: 26.8 30.9 34.3 32.7 Final ...............: 26.8 31.1 34.5 32.7 : Washington : July ................: 34.3 41.8 34.2 37.7 33.3 August ..............: 35.8 42.3 34.3 38.3 Final ...............: 35.7 42.3 34.6 38.2 : 10 State : July ................: 41.2 40.1 44.0 42.1 45.5 August ..............: 41.7 40.1 44.1 42.3 Final ...............: 41.7 40.2 44.2 42.3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final head counts will be published in the "Small Grains 2021 Summary." June Weather Summary Heat gripped the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the first half of June, followed by a late-month cooling trend. However, the westward-shifting heat core resulted in the worst-ever Northwestern heat wave, which climaxed from June 26-29 with widespread temperatures above 110°F-even in normally temperate near-coastal locations. The remainder of the western United States also experienced a hot month, with pre-monsoon temperatures in the Southwest and Intermountain West peaking in mid-June. Late-month, monsoon-related showers were mostly limited to a few Southwestern locations. The Western heat, which boosted monthly temperatures as much as 5 to 10°F above normal, contributed to soil moisture depletion and maintained severe stress on rangeland, pastures, immature winter wheat, and many spring-sown crops. By July 4, at least two-thirds of the rangeland and pastures were rated in very poor to poor condition in Washington (84 percent), Arizona (83 percent), Montana (77 percent), North Dakota (77 percent), South Dakota (74 percent), Oregon (71 percent), Utah (69 percent), and New Mexico (67 percent). On the same date, topsoil moisture was rated more than three-quarters very short to short in six of those states (Washington, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oregon, and Utah), along with Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Vermont. On July 4, one-quarter to one-half of the spring wheat (50 percent), rangeland and pastures (42 percent), barley (39 percent), oats (30 percent) were rated in very poor to poor condition. In contrast, good to excellent crop ratings were observed on the same date for more than two-thirds of predominantly Southern crops such as rice (73 percent), sorghum (72 percent), and peanuts (69 percent). Meanwhile, drier June weather favored winter wheat maturation and harvesting on the central Plains, although some rain-related harvest delays persisted across the southern Plains. The majority of Midwestern crops-64 percent of the corn and 59 percent of the soybeans-were rated in good to excellent condition by early July, though some drought-related crop stress was noted in the northwestern Corn Belt. Farther east, pockets of excessive wetness plagued parts of the South and lower Midwest, disrupting fieldwork and resulting in some lowland flooding. June rainfall totaled 10 inches or more in scattered locations from northern Missouri to southern Michigan. Similar rainfall amounts occurred in parts of the eastern Gulf Coast region, including Florida, as well as the coastal Carolinas and portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and southeastern Arkansas. Near-normal temperatures, extending from the southern Plains to the middle and southern Atlantic States, accompanied the Southern wetness. With the mix of wetness and dryness, national drought coverage increased slightly from 44 to 47 percent during the 4-week period ending June 29, according to the United States Drought Monitor. During the same 4 weeks, drought coverage in the 11-state Western region increased from 84 to 88 percent, while coverage of extreme to exceptional drought (D3 to D4) leaped from 47 to 53 percent. Western wildfire and water-supply concerns continued to mount, fueled by depleted soil moisture, prematurely melted mountain snow, low reservoir levels, and ample cured vegetation. In Arizona, the Telegraph Fire-east of Phoenix-started on June 4 and soon became the sixth-largest wildfire in modern state history, charring more than 180,000 acres. June Agricultural Summary June was warmer than average for most of the Nation. Large parts of California, Nevada, the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and Northern Rockies recorded temperatures 6°F or more above normal for the month. In contrast, moderately cooler than normal temperatures were felt in much of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and Southern Plains. Most of California, Nevada, New England, the Pacific Northwest, Central and Northern Plains, and Northern Rockies were drier than normal for the month of June. In contrast, parts of the Great Lakes, Mississippi Valley, Southern Plains, Southeast, and Southwest received twice the normal amount of precipitation. By May 30, producers had planted 95 percent of the Nation's corn crop, 3 percentage points ahead of last year and 8 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Eighty-one percent of the Nation's corn acreage had emerged by May 30, five percentage points ahead of the previous year and 11 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Ninety-six percent of the Nation's corn acreage had emerged by June 13, two percentage points ahead of the previous year and 5 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By July 4, ten percent of the Nation's corn acreage had reached the silking stage, 1 percentage point ahead of last year but 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. On July 4, sixty-four percent of the Nation's corn acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, 7 percentage points below the same time last year. Eighty-four percent of the Nation's soybean acreage was planted by May 30, ten percentage points ahead of last year and 17 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Sixty-two percent of the Nation's soybean acreage had emerged by May 30, twelve percentage points ahead of last year and 20 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Ninety-four percent of the Nation's soybean acreage was planted by June 13, two percentage points ahead of last year and 6 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Eighty-six percent of the Nation's soybean acreage had emerged by June 13, seven percentage points ahead of last year and 12 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Ninety-six percent of the Nation's soybean acreage had emerged by June 27, two percentage points ahead of last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By July 4, twenty-nine percent of the Nation's soybean acreage had reached the blooming stage, equal to last year but 5 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By July 4, three percent of the Nation's soybean acreage had begun setting pods, 1 percentage point ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average. On July 4, fifty-nine percent of the Nation's soybean acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, 12 percentage points below the same time last year. By May 30, seventy-nine percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was headed, 3 percentage points ahead of the previous year and 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. By June 13, ninety-two percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was headed, 2 percentage points ahead of the previous year but equal to the 5-year average. Four percent of the 2021 winter wheat acreage was harvested by June 13, ten percentage points behind last year and 11 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Forty-five percent of the 2021 winter wheat acreage had been harvested by July 4, nine percentage points behind last year and 8 percentage points behind the 5-year average. On July 4, forty-seven percent of the 2021 winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition, 4 percentage points below the same time last year. Nationwide, 64 percent of the cotton crop was planted by May 30, equal to the previous year but 1 percentage point behind the 5-year average. Six percent of the Nation's cotton acreage had reached the squaring stage by May 30, two percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the 5-year average. Nationwide, 90 percent of the cotton crop was planted by June 13, three percentage points ahead of the previous year and 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. Thirteen percent of the Nation's cotton acreage had reached the squaring stage by June 13, three percentage points behind both last year and the 5-year average. Forty-two percent of the Nation's cotton acreage had reached the squaring stage by July 4, three percentage points behind last year and four percentage points behind the 5-year average. By July 4, eleven percent of the Nation's cotton acreage had begun setting bolls, 1 percentage point behind last year and 2 percentage points behind the 5-year average. On July 4, fifty-two percent of the 2021 cotton acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, 9 percentage points above the same time last year. Forty-one percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage was planted by May 30, seven percentage points behind the previous year and 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Seventy-two percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage was planted by June 13, five percentage points behind the previous year and 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By June 13, thirteen percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage had reached the headed stage, 3 percentage points behind both last year and the 5-year average. Ninety-five percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage was planted by June 27, equal to both the previous year and the 5-year average. By July 4, twenty-two percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage had reached the headed stage, 2 percentage points behind last year and 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By July 4, with progress limited to Texas, coloring advanced to 14 percent, 1 percentage point ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average. Seventy-two percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage was rated in good to excellent condition on July 4, 24 percentage points above the same time last year. By May 30, eighty-six percent of the Nation's rice acreage had emerged, 6 percentage points ahead of last year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By June 13, ninety-six percent of the Nation's rice acreage had emerged, 4 percentage points ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average. By June 13, one percent of the Nation's rice acreage had reached the headed stage, 3 percentage points behind the previous year and 2 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By July 4, fourteen percent of the Nation's rice acreage had reached the headed stage, 4 percentage points behind the previous year and 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. On July 4, seventy-three percent of the Nation's rice acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, unchanged from the same time last year. Ninety-one percent of the Nation's oat acreage had emerged by May 30, six percentage points ahead of last year and five percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Thirty-one percent of the Nation's oat acreage had headed by May 30, four percentage points ahead of last year and three percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Fifty percent of the Nation's oat acreage had headed by June 13, nine percentage points ahead of last year and 6 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Eighty-eight percent of the Nation's oat acreage had headed by July 4, five percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. On July 4, thirty-four percent of the Nation's oat acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, 28 percentage points below the same time last year. Ninety-five percent of the Nation's barley crop was planted by May 30, three percentage points ahead of last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. Seventy-nine percent of the Nation's barley crop had emerged by May 30, seven percentage points ahead of the previous year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Ninety-six percent of the Nation's barley crop had emerged by June 13, three percentage points ahead of both the previous year and the 5-year average. Six percent of the Nation's barley acreage had reached the headed stage by June 13, four percentage points behind last year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. Fifty-nine percent of the Nation's barley acreage had reached the headed stage by July 4, two percentage points ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average. On July 4, twenty-two percent of the Nation's barley acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, 51 percentage points below the same time last year. By May 30, ninety-seven percent of the Nation's spring wheat crop had been seeded, 7 percentage points ahead of last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By May 30, eighty percent of the Nation's spring wheat crop had emerged, 15 percentage points ahead of the previous year and 7 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By June 13, ninety-six percent of the Nation's spring wheat crop had emerged, 3 percentage points ahead of the previous year and 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. By June 13, eight percent of the Nation's spring wheat crop had reached the headed stage, 4 percentage points ahead of the previous year and 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By July 4, sixty-nine percent of the Nation's spring wheat crop had reached the headed stage, 10 percentage points ahead of the previous year and 7 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. On July 4, sixteen percent of the Nation's spring wheat was rated in good to excellent condition, 54 percentage points below the same time last year. Nationally, producers had planted 77 percent of the 2021 peanut acreage by May 30, one percentage point ahead of the previous year but 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average Nationally, producers had planted 92 percent of the 2021 peanut acreage by June 13, two percentage points behind the previous year and 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By June 13, seven percent of the Nation's peanut crop had reached the pegging stage, three percentage points behind the previous year but equal to the 5-year average. By July 4, forty-eight percent of the Nation's peanut crop had reached the pegging stage, 1 percentage point behind the previous year and 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. On July 4, sixty-nine percent of the Nation's peanut acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, unchanged from the same time last year. Forty-two percent of the Nation's intended 2021 sunflower acreage was planted by May 30, thirteen percentage points ahead of last year and 7 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Seventy-nine percent of the Nation's intended 2021 sunflower acreage was planted by June 13, seven percentage points ahead of last year and 5 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Ninety-five percent of the Nation's intended 2021 sunflower acreage was planted by June 27, one percentage point ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average. Crop Comments Oats: Production is forecast at 41.3 million bushels, down 37 percent from 2020. If realized, this would be the lowest production on record. Growers expect to harvest 722,000 acres for grain, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2021, but down 28 percent from 2020. Based on conditions as of July 1, the United States yield is forecast at 57.2 bushels per acre, 7.9 bushels below the 2020 average yield. Record low production is expected in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. As of July 4, eighty-eight percent of the Nation's oat acreage was headed, 5 percentage points ahead of last year and 5 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. As of July 4, thirty-four percent of the Nation's oat acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, compared with 62 percent at the same time last year. Barley: Production is forecast at 114 million bushels, down 31 percent from 2020. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1900. Based on conditions as of July 1, the average yield for the United States is forecast at 55.9 bushels per acre, down 21.6 bushels from last year. Barley producers are expecting the lowest yield since 2002. Area harvested for grain or seed, at 2.04 million acres is unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2021, but down 4 percent from 2020. Record low production is expected in California. Ninety-five percent of the Nation's barley acreage was planted by May 30, three percentage points ahead of last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. By June 6, eighty-seven percent of the Nation's barley acreage had emerged, 2 percentage points ahead of last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. Forty-three percent of the Nation's barley acreage had reached the headed stage by June 27, seven percentage points ahead of last year and 6 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. On June 27, thirty-one percent of the Nation's barley acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, compared with 75 percent at the same time last year. Winter wheat: Production is forecast at 1.36 billion bushels, up 4 percent from the previous forecast and up 16 percent from 2020. Based on July 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 53.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushel from last month and up 2.7 bushels from last year's average yield of 50.9 bushels per acre. If realized, this will be the second highest United States yield on record. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.4 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2021, but up 11 percent from last year. Record high yields are forecast in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas for 2021. Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the six Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are above last year's levels in Colorado, Kansas, Montana, and Nebraska, but below last year's levels in Oklahoma and Texas. As of July 4, harvest progress was behind normal in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. Harvest had not yet begun in Montana as of July 4, 2021. Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the three Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are all above last year's levels. As of July 4, harvest progress was 5 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average pace in Illinois but behind the 5-year pace in Missouri and Ohio. Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in Washington are below last year. Twenty percent of the Washington acreage was rated in good to excellent condition as of July 4. Durum wheat: Production is forecast at 37.2 million bushels, down 46 percent from 2020. The United States yield is forecast at 25.8 bushels per acre, down 15.6 bushels from last year. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 1.44 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2021, but down 13 percent from 2020. Montana and North Dakota are the two largest Durum-producing States. As of July 4, forty percent of the acreage in Montana and 47 percent of the acreage in North Dakota were rated in good to excellent condition. As of July 4, Montana Durum wheat progress was 28 percent headed, three percentage points behind average. In North Dakota, Durum wheat headed progress was rated at 47 percent as of July 4, three percentage points behind average. Other spring wheat: Production is forecast at 345 million bushels, down 41 percent from 2020. The United States yield is forecast at 30.7 bushels per acre, down 17.9 bushels from a year ago. If realized, this will be the lowest United States yield since 2002. Of the total production, 305 million bushels are Hard Red Spring wheat, down 42 percent from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 11.2 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2021, but 7 percent below 2020. Spring wheat planting and development started out ahead the 5-year average pace and has remained ahead the 5-year average pace to date. In the six major producing States, sixty-nine percent of the acreage was headed as of July 4, ten percentage points ahead of last year and 7 percentage points ahead the 5-year average. As of July 4, sixteen percent of the other spring wheat acreage was rated in good to excellent condition compared to 70 percent in 2020. Grapefruit: The United States 2020-2021 grapefruit crop is forecast at 446,000 tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 22 percent from last season's final utilization. In California, expected production, at 4.40 million boxes (176,000 tons), is up 5 percent from the previous forecast but down 6 percent from last year. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 1.00 million tons, up 4 percent from the previous forecast and up 6 percent from last season's final utilization. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 24.0 million boxes (960,000 tons), is up 4 percent from the previous forecast and up 7 percent from last season. Lemons: The 2020-2021 United States lemon crop is forecast at 920,000 tons, down 3 percent from previous forecast and down 15 percent from last season's final utilization. The California forecast, at 21.5 million boxes (860,000 tons), is down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 15 percent from the 2019-2020 season total. Tobacco: The 2021 United States all flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 291 million pounds, up 22 percent from 2020. Area harvested, at 151,500 acres, is unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2021, but up 18 percent from last year. Yield for the 2021 crop year is forecast at 1,920 pounds per acre, 62 pounds above last year. Apricots: The 2021 apricot crop is forecast at 55,500 tons, up 66 percent from last year. In California, growers reported optimism of a great production year. In Washington, some growers reported freeze damage during the winter and many orchards have shown signs of heat stress recently. Almonds: The 2021 California almond production (shelled basis) is forecast at 2.80 billion pounds, down 13 percent from the previous forecast and down 10 percent from the previous year. If realized, this will be the second highest total production on a shelled basis on record. The 2021 almond crop experienced a mostly dry winter and mild temperatures provided ideal conditions during the almond bloom. Growing conditions in April and May were also excellent for the developing crop, but there were days of record high temperatures in June that lowered expectations. The greatest concern for growers is the lack of water in areas without access to wells. Without enough irrigation, yields have been reduced and some growers have stripped nuts before harvest to save their trees for next year. Statistical Methodology Wheat survey procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between June 23 and July 6 to gather information on expected yield as of July 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in 10 States that accounted for 70 percent of the 2020 winter wheat production. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's maturity. Counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the heads are clipped, threshed, and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and internet. Approximately 6,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about the probable yield on their operation. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields. Orange survey procedures: In Florida, during August and September, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Wheat estimating procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each Regional Field Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published July 1 forecasts. Orange estimating procedures: State level objective measurement estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published July 1 forecast. Revision policy: The July 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season wheat estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the wheat marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the July 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the July 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 winter wheat production forecast is 2.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current winter wheat production will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.3 percent. Also shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the July 1 forecast and the final estimate Using winter wheat as an example, changes between the July 1 forecast and the final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 27 million bushels, ranging from less than 1 million to 81 million bushels. The July 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times. This does not imply that the July 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of July 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Barley ................bushels: 7.6 13.1 13 (Z) 38 8 12 Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 1.5 2.6 93 9 251 11 9 Oats ..................bushels: 12.6 21.8 9 (Z) 32 2 18 Wheat : Winter wheat ........bushels: 2.5 4.3 27 (Z) 81 8 12 Durum wheat .........bushels: 13.2 22.9 8 (Z) 24 9 11 Other spring .......bushels: 10.1 17.5 37 2 98 10 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (Z) Less than half of the unit shown. 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch....................................................... (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section.............................................. (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather....................................................... (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Oats, Soybeans..................................................... (202) 690-3234 David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports........................... (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - Barley, County Estimates, Hay................................... (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat....................................................... (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet....................................... (202) 720-9526 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................... (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds........................................ (202) 720-7369 Lihan Wei - Peanuts, Rice......................................................... (202) 720-7688 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section..................... (202) 720-2127 Heidi Lanouette - Apples, Blueberries, Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes......................................................................... (202) 720-4285 Robert Little - Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes....................................... (202) 720-3250 Fleming Gibson - Almonds, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn.............................................................. (202) 720-2127 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Grapefruit, Garlic, Hazelnuts, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Tobacco................................................................................ (202) 720-5412 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons.................. (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans............................... 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