Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released February 11, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 2 Percent from January Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2019-2020 season is 5.31 million tons, down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down slightly from the 2018-2019 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 72.0 million boxes (3.24 million tons), is down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up slightly from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 31.0 million boxes (1.40 million tons), down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 2 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 41.0 million boxes (1.85 million tons), is down 2 percent from the previous forecast and 1 percent below last season's final utilization. California and Texas orange production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast. This report was approved on February 11, 2020. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Stephen L. Censky Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2018-2019 and Forecasted February 1, 2020......................................................................................... 4 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2018 and 2019......... 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020................................ 11 January Percent of Normal Precipitation Map.............................................................. 12 January Departure from Normal Temperature Map............................................................ 12 January Weather Summary.................................................................................. 13 January Agricultural Summary............................................................................. 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 13 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2018-2019 and Forecasted February 1, 2020 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2018-2019 : 2019-2020 : 2018-2019 : 2019-2020 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ------ ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all 2/ .........: 49,800 49,000 1,992 1,960 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 40,800 40,000 1,632 1,600 Valencia ..................: 9,000 9,000 360 360 : Florida, all ...............: 71,750 72,000 3,229 3,240 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 30,400 31,000 1,368 1,395 Valencia ..................: 41,350 41,000 1,861 1,845 : Texas, all 2/ ..............: 2,500 2,560 106 109 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 2,210 1,950 94 83 Valencia ..................: 290 610 12 26 : United States, all .........: 124,050 123,560 5,327 5,309 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 73,410 72,950 3,094 3,078 Valencia ..................: 50,640 50,610 2,233 2,231 : Grapefruit : California 2/ ..............: 3,200 4,100 128 164 Florida, all ...............: 4,510 5,900 192 251 Red .......................: 3,740 5,000 159 213 White .....................: 770 900 33 38 Texas 2/ ...................: 6,100 6,200 244 248 : United States ..............: 13,810 16,200 564 663 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California 2/ ..............: 26,000 22,000 1,040 880 Florida ....................: 990 1,050 47 50 : United States ..............: 26,990 23,050 1,087 930 : Lemons 2/ : Arizona ....................: 1,350 1,400 54 56 California .................: 22,800 19,000 912 760 : United States ..............: 24,150 20,400 966 816 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2018 and 2019 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons -- : For sugar : Florida ......................: 397.0 397.0 41.7 42.3 16,555 16,793 Louisiana 2/ .................: 425.0 442.0 35.3 28.5 15,003 12,597 Texas 2/ .....................: 37.6 31.5 36.6 36.3 1,376 1,143 : United States ................: 859.6 870.5 38.3 35.1 32,934 30,533 : For seed : Florida ......................: 15.3 13.8 45.8 47.8 701 660 Louisiana 2/ .................: 23.5 28.4 36.5 32.5 858 923 Texas 2/ .....................: 1.3 1.9 37.9 39.4 49 75 : United States ................: 40.1 44.1 40.1 37.6 1,608 1,658 : For sugar and seed : Florida ......................: 412.3 410.8 41.9 42.5 17,256 17,453 Louisiana 2/ .................: 448.5 470.4 35.4 28.7 15,861 13,520 Texas 2/ .....................: 38.9 33.4 36.6 36.5 1,425 1,218 : United States ................: 899.7 914.6 38.4 35.2 34,542 32,191 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from an earlier estimate. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,721 2,182 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 89,700 81,482 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,587 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 52,425 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 16,743 All other ............................: (NA) 35,682 Oats ...................................: 2,810 826 Proso millet ...........................: 506 465 Rice ...................................: 2,540 2,472 Rye ....................................: 1,865 310 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 5,265 4,675 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 339 Wheat, all .............................: 45,158 37,162 Winter ...............................: 31,159 30,804 24,327 Durum ................................: 1,339 1,175 Other spring .........................: 12,660 11,660 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,040.0 1,910.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 374 319 Mustard seed ...........................: 98.0 90.0 Peanuts ................................: 1,427.7 1,391.7 Rapeseed ...............................: 11.3 10.4 Safflower ..............................: 165.8 152.7 Soybeans for beans .....................: 76,100 75,021 Sunflower ..............................: 1,350.6 1,244.5 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 13,737.8 11,804.5 Upland ...............................: 13,508.0 11,580.0 American Pima ........................: 229.8 224.5 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,132.0 979.3 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 914.6 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 227.1 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 451.4 404.0 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,287.4 1,176.5 Dry edible peas ........................: 1,103.0 1,052.0 Lentils ................................: 486.0 431.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 56.5 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 52.4 Potatoes ...............................: 968.3 942.2 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 18.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 77.7 169,566 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 168.0 13,691,561 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.2 132,807 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.46 128,864 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.28 54,875 All other ........................tons: 2.07 73,989 Oats ............................bushels: 64.3 53,148 Proso millet ....................bushels: 35.7 16,608 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,471 184,675 Rye .............................bushels: 34.3 10,622 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 73.0 341,460 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 11.9 4,019 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 51.7 1,920,139 Winter ........................bushels: 53.6 1,304,003 Durum .........................bushels: 45.7 53,756 Other spring ..................bushels: 48.2 562,380 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,781 3,402,000 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 6,232.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 20.0 6,395 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 706 63,580 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,949 5,496,087 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,160 22,464 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,272 194,295 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 47.4 3,558,281 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,562 1,943,435 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 817 20,102.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 803 19,380.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,544 722.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 29.2 28,600 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 35.2 32,191 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,060 467,956 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,544 6,237 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 1,769 20,811 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 2,124 22,346 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,250 5,388 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,981 112,041.2 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,240 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 846,491 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 104 5,452 Potatoes ............................cwt: 449 422,890 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 130 2,413 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,101,160 883,030 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,300,690 32,974,950 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,665,690 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 21,215,870 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,775,720 All other ....................: (NA) 14,440,150 Oats ...........................: 1,137,180 334,270 Proso millet ...................: 204,770 188,180 Rice ...........................: 1,027,910 1,000,390 Rye ............................: 754,750 125,450 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,130,690 1,891,930 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 137,190 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,274,990 15,039,090 Winter .......................: 12,609,740 12,466,070 9,844,890 Durum ........................: 541,880 475,510 Other spring .................: 5,123,380 4,718,690 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 825,570 772,960 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 151,350 129,100 Mustard seed ...................: 39,660 36,420 Peanuts ........................: 577,780 563,210 Rapeseed .......................: 4,570 4,210 Safflower ......................: 67,100 61,800 Soybeans for beans .............: 30,796,910 30,360,250 Sunflower ......................: 546,570 503,640 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 5,559,550 4,777,160 Upland .......................: 5,466,550 4,686,310 American Pima ................: 93,000 90,850 Sugarbeets .....................: 458,110 396,310 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 370,130 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 91,910 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 182,680 163,490 Dry edible beans ...............: 521,000 476,120 Dry edible peas ................: 446,370 425,730 Lentils ........................: 196,680 174,420 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 22,880 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 21,210 Potatoes .......................: 391,860 381,300 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,490 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.18 3,691,860 Corn for grain .........................: 10.55 347,781,670 Corn for silage ........................: 45.20 120,480,480 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.51 116,903,450 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.35 49,781,760 All other ............................: 4.65 67,121,690 Oats ...................................: 2.31 771,440 Proso millet ...........................: 2.00 376,660 Rice ...................................: 8.37 8,376,720 Rye ....................................: 2.15 269,810 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.58 8,673,480 Sorghum for silage .....................: 26.58 3,645,980 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.47 52,257,620 Winter ...............................: 3.60 35,489,150 Durum ................................: 3.08 1,463,000 Other spring .........................: 3.24 15,305,480 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.00 1,543,120 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 5,653,580 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.26 162,440 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.79 28,840 Peanuts ................................: 4.43 2,492,980 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.42 10,190 Safflower ..............................: 1.43 88,130 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.19 96,840,540 Sunflower ..............................: 1.75 881,530 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.92 4,376,690 Upland ...............................: 0.90 4,219,500 American Pima ........................: 1.73 157,200 Sugarbeets .............................: 65.47 25,945,480 Sugarcane ..............................: 78.90 29,203,180 Tobacco ................................: 2.31 212,260 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.73 282,910 Dry edible beans .......................: 1.98 943,970 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.38 1,013,600 Lentils ................................: 1.40 244,400 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.22 50,820 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 21,200 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 383,960 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.12 2,470 Potatoes ...............................: 50.31 19,181,970 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.15 1,090 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2019-2020 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 564 663 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 966 816 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 5,327 5,309 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,087 930 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,630.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 64,500 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 362,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 290.2 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 26,430 Cranberries .........................barrel: 9,040,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 7,500,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 733,500 Pears .................................tons: 805,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: 110,000 Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,200,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 49,000 Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 264,500 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 630,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2019-2020 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 511,650 601,460 Lemons ....................................: 876,340 740,260 Oranges ...................................: 4,832,570 4,816,240 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 986,110 843,680 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,821,690 Apricots ..................................: 58,510 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 328,400 Cherries, Tart ............................: 131,630 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 11,990 Cranberries ...............................: 410,050 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 6,803,890 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 665,420 Pears .....................................: 730,280 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: 99,790 Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 997,900 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 44,450 Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 119,980 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 571,530 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. January Weather Summary Western weather patterns flipped in January, with wetter conditions developing in the Northwest and a drier regime arriving across California and the Southwest. As a result, Northwestern snowpack dramatically improved to near-normal values by month's end, while little snow accumulated in California's key watershed areas. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack increased only 3 inches (from 9 to 12 inches) during the month-and was only about 70 percent of the late-January average. Meanwhile, most of the central and eastern United States experienced unsettled January weather. Relative to normal, precipitation was particularly heavy in the Midwest, further delaying final harvest efforts. By late January, harvesting of corn and sunflowers was 96 percent complete in South Dakota. In North Dakota, where many areas have experienced continuous snow coverage since late November, the corn and sunflower harvests were just 49 and 67 percent complete, respectively. Heavy January precipitation from the Midwest southward to the central Gulf Coast also led to a rare, mid-winter flood event. Some of the most significant flooding developed around mid-January from Mississippi to Michigan, fueled by a series of storms. Midwestern basins such as the Illinois and Wabash Rivers experienced mostly minor to moderate flooding. Flooding also affected the lower Mississippi Valley and environs. Late in the month, topsoil moisture was rated at least 40 percent surplus in many Midwestern States, including Michigan (63 percent), Ohio (59 percent), South Dakota (48 percent), Missouri (45 percent), North Dakota (44 percent), and Illinois (40 percent). In contrast, lingering pockets of drought across the High Plains and the Southwest left topsoil moisture rated 65 percent very short to short in New Mexico, along with 61 percent in Colorado and 32 percent in Kansas. By late January, nearly one-quarter of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition in Colorado (24 percent) and Kansas (23 percent). Despite brief cold episodes, near- or above-normal January temperatures dominated the country. Warmth was especially notable east of the Mississippi River, where monthly temperatures averaged as much as 6 to 10°F above normal. For most areas east of the Rockies, the harshest period of cold weather lasted about a week and culminated with a freeze across parts of Florida's peninsula on January 22. During Florida's brief cold outbreak, high winds and temperatures near the freezing mark may have reduced the yield potential of highly sensitive vegetables. January Agricultural Summary January was warmer than average for most of the Nation. Temperatures averaged 5°F or more above normal for most of the eastern States. The western States also experienced above average temperatures in January, except in parts of Arizona, Colorado, and Utah. During the month of January, much of the eastern United States and Pacific Northwest received higher than average precipitation. Portions of Mississippi, Oregon, and Washington received 5 inches of rain or more above normal. In contrast, most of the East Coast, Florida, California, and a large portion of the Rocky Mountain region and the Southwest, saw drier than normal conditions in January. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2019-2020 grapefruit crop is forecast at 663,000 tons, up 3 percent from the previous forecast and up 18 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, expected production, at 5.90 million boxes (251,000 tons), is up 9 percent from the previous forecast and up 31 percent from last year. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 930,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 14 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 1.05 million boxes (50,000 ton), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 6 percent from last year. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous forecast. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2019 is forecast at 32.2 million tons, up 1 percent from last month but 7 percent below last year. Producers intend to harvest 914,600 acres for sugar and seed during the 2019 crop year, slightly above last month and up 2 percent from last year. Yields for sugar and seed were expected to average 35.2 tons per acre, up 0.3 ton from last month but down 3.2 tons from 2018. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower survey on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 5.1 percent. However, if you exclude the three abnormal production years (three hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 5.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 5.1 percent, or 5.4 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.8 percent, or 9.3 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 313,000 tons (329,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 843,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 8 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................... (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section........................................... (202) 720-2127 David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports........................ (202) 720-8800 Chris Hawthorn - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet.................................. (202) 720-2127 James Johanson - County Estimates, Hay......................................... (202) 690-8533 Jeff Lemmons - Oats, Soybeans.................................................. (202) 690-3234 Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather.................................................... (202) 720-7621 Chris Hawthorn - Peanuts, Rice................................................. (202) 720-2127 Jean Porter - Rye, Wheat....................................................... (202) 720-8068 Chris Singh - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum...................................... (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Barley, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds............................. (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............. (202) 720-2127 Joshua Bates - Almonds, Apples, Apricots, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco.................................................. (202) 720-4288 Fleming Gibson - Cauliflower, Celery, Grapefruit, Lemons, Macadamia, Mandarins and tangerines, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges................................ (202) 720-5412 Greg Lemmons - Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes, Tame Blueberries, Wild Blueberries.................................................. (202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Artichokes, Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Lentils, Nectarines, Papayas, Peaches, Snap Beans, Spinach, Walnuts, Watermelons .. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Dry Beans, Garlic, Hazelnuts, Honeydews, Kiwifruit, Lettuce, Maple Syrup, Mint, Pears, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Tomatoes................... (202) 720-2157 Dawn Smoker - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans............................ (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. The new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or subscribe, they are located at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at program.intake@usda.gov.