Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released January 10, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Up 1 Percent from December Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2019-2020 season is 5.40 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 1 percent from the 2018-2019 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 74.0 million boxes (3.33 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 3 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 32.0 million boxes (1.44 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 5 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 42.0 million boxes (1.89 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 2 percent from last season's final utilization. The California all orange forecast is 49.0 million boxes (1.96 million tons), up 4 percent from the previous forecast but down 2 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast, at 40.0 million boxes (1.60 million tons), is up 5 percent from the previous forecast but down 2 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast, at 9.00 million boxes (360,000 tons), is unchanged from both the previous forecast and last season's final utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 2.56 million boxes (109,000 tons), is down 5 percent from the previous forecast but up 2 percent from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on January 10, 2020. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Stephen L. Censky Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2018-2019 and Forecasted January 1, 2020.......................................................................................... 4 Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2018 and 2019...................... 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 December Weather Summary................................................................................. 13 December Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 13 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2018-2019 and Forecasted January 1, 2020 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2018-2019 : 2019-2020 : 2018-2019 : 2019-2020 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ------ ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ............: 49,800 49,000 1,992 1,960 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 40,800 40,000 1,632 1,600 Valencia ..................: 9,000 9,000 360 360 : Florida, all ...............: 71,750 74,000 3,229 3,330 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 30,400 32,000 1,368 1,440 Valencia ..................: 41,350 42,000 1,861 1,890 : Texas, all .................: 2,500 2,560 106 109 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 2,210 1,950 94 83 Valencia ..................: 290 610 12 26 : United States, all .........: 124,050 125,560 5,327 5,399 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 73,410 73,950 3,094 3,123 Valencia ..................: 50,640 51,610 2,233 2,276 : Grapefruit : California .................: 3,200 4,100 128 164 Florida, all ...............: 4,510 5,400 192 229 Red .......................: 3,740 4,500 159 191 White .....................: 770 900 33 38 Texas ......................: 6,100 6,200 244 248 : United States ..............: 13,810 15,700 564 641 : Tangerines and mandarins 3/ : California .................: 26,000 22,000 1,040 880 Florida ....................: 990 1,050 47 50 : United States ..............: 26,990 23,050 1,087 930 : Lemons : Arizona ....................: 1,350 1,400 54 56 California .................: 22,800 19,000 912 760 : United States ..............: 24,150 20,400 966 816 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2018 and 2019 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : May 1 : December 1 State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2018 : 2019 : 2018 : 2019 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 tons : Alabama .......: 275 200 1,750 1,100 Arizona .......: 35 35 190 280 Arkansas ......: 390 190 1,570 2,000 California ....: 150 270 1,400 1,350 Colorado ......: 700 300 1,750 2,000 Connecticut ...: 12 6 51 43 Delaware ......: 4 2 17 16 Florida .......: 65 80 570 540 Georgia .......: 200 265 1,180 1,110 Idaho .........: 660 400 2,400 2,400 : Illinois ......: 140 175 850 750 Indiana .......: 100 130 820 730 Iowa ..........: 360 345 2,060 2,180 Kansas ........: 800 630 4,300 5,300 Kentucky ......: 650 500 3,450 3,000 Louisiana .....: 80 55 500 660 Maine .........: 25 22 163 115 Maryland ......: 70 78 330 315 Massachusetts .: 16 12 65 55 Michigan ......: 260 180 900 930 : Minnesota .....: 560 280 2,040 1,690 Mississippi ...: 165 100 840 960 Missouri ......: 580 480 4,200 6,900 Montana .......: 500 1,100 4,200 5,100 Nebraska ......: 700 1,070 4,500 4,200 Nevada ........: 130 65 710 935 New Hampshire .: 6 6 53 30 New Jersey ....: 22 16 94 70 New Mexico ....: 50 105 250 330 New York ......: 355 260 1,400 1,600 : North Carolina : 215 235 1,360 1,300 North Dakota ..: 720 1,000 4,000 4,200 Ohio ..........: 260 180 1,400 1,250 Oklahoma ......: 690 740 4,400 4,200 Oregon ........: 320 170 1,650 1,900 Pennsylvania ..: 440 290 1,813 1,650 Rhode Island ..: 1 1 4 4 South Carolina : 115 95 430 360 South Dakota ..: 1,240 1,200 5,350 6,250 Tennessee .....: 480 485 3,120 2,900 : Texas .........: 1,160 1,550 4,850 5,600 Utah ..........: 200 280 980 1,300 Vermont .......: 42 48 175 165 Virginia ......: 250 270 1,850 1,800 Washington ....: 230 290 1,100 1,050 West Virginia .: 125 75 770 660 Wisconsin .....: 480 330 1,750 1,770 Wyoming .......: 320 310 1,450 1,440 : United States .: 15,348 14,906 79,055 84,488 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,721 2,182 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 89,700 81,482 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,587 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 52,425 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 16,743 All other ............................: (NA) 35,682 Oats ...................................: 2,810 826 Proso millet ...........................: 506 465 Rice ...................................: 2,540 2,472 Rye ....................................: 1,865 310 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 5,265 4,675 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 339 Wheat, all .............................: 45,158 37,162 Winter ...............................: 31,159 30,804 24,327 Durum ................................: 1,339 1,175 Other spring .........................: 12,660 11,660 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,040.0 1,910.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 374 319 Mustard seed ...........................: 98.0 90.0 Peanuts ................................: 1,427.7 1,391.7 Rapeseed ...............................: 11.3 10.4 Safflower ..............................: 165.8 152.7 Soybeans for beans .....................: 76,100 75,021 Sunflower ..............................: 1,350.6 1,244.5 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 13,737.8 11,804.5 Upland ...............................: 13,508.0 11,580.0 American Pima ........................: 229.8 224.5 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,132.0 979.3 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 912.0 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 227.1 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 451.4 404.0 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,287.4 1,176.5 Dry edible peas ........................: 1,103.0 1,052.0 Lentils ................................: 486.0 431.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 56.5 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 52.4 Potatoes ...............................: 968.3 942.2 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 18.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 77.7 169,566 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 168.0 13,691,561 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.2 132,807 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.46 128,864 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.28 54,875 All other ........................tons: 2.07 73,989 Oats ............................bushels: 64.3 53,148 Proso millet ....................bushels: 35.7 16,608 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,471 184,675 Rye .............................bushels: 34.3 10,622 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 73.0 341,460 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 11.9 4,019 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 51.7 1,920,139 Winter ........................bushels: 53.6 1,304,003 Durum .........................bushels: 45.7 53,756 Other spring ..................bushels: 48.2 562,380 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,781 3,402,000 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 6,232.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 20.0 6,395 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 706 63,580 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,949 5,496,087 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,160 22,464 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,272 194,295 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 47.4 3,558,281 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,562 1,943,435 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 817 20,102.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 803 19,380.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,544 722.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 29.2 28,600 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 34.9 31,798 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,060 467,956 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,544 6,237 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 1,769 20,811 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 2,124 22,346 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,250 5,388 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,981 112,041.2 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,240 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 846,491 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 104 5,452 Potatoes ............................cwt: 449 422,890 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 130 2,413 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,101,160 883,030 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,300,690 32,974,950 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,665,690 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 21,215,870 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,775,720 All other ....................: (NA) 14,440,150 Oats ...........................: 1,137,180 334,270 Proso millet ...................: 204,770 188,180 Rice ...........................: 1,027,910 1,000,390 Rye ............................: 754,750 125,450 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,130,690 1,891,930 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 137,190 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,274,990 15,039,090 Winter .......................: 12,609,740 12,466,070 9,844,890 Durum ........................: 541,880 475,510 Other spring .................: 5,123,380 4,718,690 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 825,570 772,960 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 151,350 129,100 Mustard seed ...................: 39,660 36,420 Peanuts ........................: 577,780 563,210 Rapeseed .......................: 4,570 4,210 Safflower ......................: 67,100 61,800 Soybeans for beans .............: 30,796,910 30,360,250 Sunflower ......................: 546,570 503,640 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 5,559,550 4,777,160 Upland .......................: 5,466,550 4,686,310 American Pima ................: 93,000 90,850 Sugarbeets .....................: 458,110 396,310 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 369,080 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 91,910 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 182,680 163,490 Dry edible beans ...............: 521,000 476,120 Dry edible peas ................: 446,370 425,730 Lentils ........................: 196,680 174,420 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 22,880 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 21,210 Potatoes .......................: 391,860 381,300 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,490 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.18 3,691,860 Corn for grain .........................: 10.55 347,781,670 Corn for silage ........................: 45.20 120,480,480 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.51 116,903,450 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.35 49,781,760 All other ............................: 4.65 67,121,690 Oats ...................................: 2.31 771,440 Proso millet ...........................: 2.00 376,660 Rice ...................................: 8.37 8,376,720 Rye ....................................: 2.15 269,810 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.58 8,673,480 Sorghum for silage .....................: 26.58 3,645,980 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.47 52,257,620 Winter ...............................: 3.60 35,489,150 Durum ................................: 3.08 1,463,000 Other spring .........................: 3.24 15,305,480 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.00 1,543,120 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 5,653,580 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.26 162,440 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.79 28,840 Peanuts ................................: 4.43 2,492,980 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.42 10,190 Safflower ..............................: 1.43 88,130 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.19 96,840,540 Sunflower ..............................: 1.75 881,530 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.92 4,376,690 Upland ...............................: 0.90 4,219,500 American Pima ........................: 1.73 157,200 Sugarbeets .............................: 65.47 25,945,480 Sugarcane ..............................: 78.16 28,846,660 Tobacco ................................: 2.31 212,260 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.73 282,910 Dry edible beans .......................: 1.98 943,970 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.38 1,013,600 Lentils ................................: 1.40 244,400 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.22 50,820 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 21,200 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 383,960 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.12 2,470 Potatoes ...............................: 50.31 19,181,970 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.15 1,090 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2019-2020 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 564 641 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 966 816 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 5,327 5,399 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,087 930 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,630.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 64,500 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 362,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 290.2 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: Cranberries .........................barrel: 9,040,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 7,500,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 733,500 Pears .................................tons: 805,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: 110,000 Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,200,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 49,000 Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 261,000 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 630,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2019-2020 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 511,650 581,510 Lemons ....................................: 876,340 740,260 Oranges ...................................: 4,832,570 4,897,890 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 986,110 843,680 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,821,690 Apricots ..................................: 58,510 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 328,400 Cherries, Tart ............................: 131,630 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: Cranberries ...............................: 410,050 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 6,803,890 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 665,420 Pears .....................................: 730,280 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: 99,790 Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 997,900 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 44,450 Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 118,390 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 571,530 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. December Weather Summary Active December weather prevailed across most of the country, especially in the Southeast and a broad area stretching from California and the Southwest to the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes region. From the Dakotas to Upper Michigan, a persistently deep snow cover hampered final harvest efforts for crops such as corn and sunflowers. In the last national report, dated December 8, only 92 percent of the Nation's corn and 73 percent of the sunflowers had been harvested. In North Dakota, 43 percent of the corn had been cut on that date, while 60 percent of the sunflowers had been harvested. Snow also remained on the ground for much (or all) of the month in parts of the Northeast, where an early-December storm dumped heavy snow. In contrast, drier-than-normal weather covered portions of the southern Plains, as well as the western Gulf Coast region. Several factors, including drought and periodic cold snaps, continued to adversely affect winter wheat in parts of Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. During December, as much as 15 percent of the Nation's winter wheat production area was in drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor. However, a late-month storm system provided some of the Plains' driest wheat areas with highly beneficial moisture. Portions of the Northwest also experienced drier-than-normal conditions, despite a late-month increase in precipitation. In addition, Northwestern snow accumulations were limited by mild weather, leaving high-elevation snowpack 25 to 75 percent of the late-December average in much of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Elsewhere, near- or above-average snowpack dominated areas from the Sierra Nevada to the central and southern Rockies, as well as the eastern slopes of the northern Rockies, courtesy of multiple storms in late November and throughout December. December Agricultural Summary December was warmer than average for most of the Nation. Temperatures averaged 6°F or more above normal for much of the Midwest, South, and parts of Montana. In contrast, parts of Colorado, New England, the Southwest, Utah, and Wyoming saw average temperatures below normal. Southwest Wyoming averaged temperatures of 6°F or more below normal. During the month of December, Minnesota, most of the Pacific Southwest, the Southeast, southern New England, and Wisconsin received higher than average precipitation. In contrast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, northern Rocky Mountain States, Pacific Northwest, and Texas remained dryer than normal. Portions of Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee received 7 inches of rain or more during the month. By December 1, eighty-nine percent of the Nation's corn acreage was harvested, 8 percentage points behind the previous year and 9 percentage points behind the 5 year average. Ninety-two percent of the 2019 acreage was harvested by December 8, eight percentage points behind the previous year and 8 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Soybean harvest across the Nation was 96 percent complete by December 1, one percentage point behind the previous year and 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Eighty-three percent of the Nation's cotton acreage was harvested by December 1, nine percentage points ahead of the previous year and 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By December 8, eighty-nine percent of the Nation's cotton acreage was harvested. Sixty-five percent of this year's sunflower acreage was harvested by December 1, sixteen percentage points behind the previous year and 29 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By December 8, seventy-three percent of this year's sunflower acreage was harvested. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2019-2020 grapefruit crop is forecast at 641,000 tons, up 6 percent from the previous forecast and up 14 percent from last season's final utilization. In Texas, expected production, at 6.20 million boxes (248,000 tons), is up 9 percent from the previous forecast and up 2 percent from last year. Lemons: The 2019-2020 United States lemon crop is forecast at 816,000 tons, down 5 percent from previous forecast and down 16 percent from last season's final utilization. The California production forecast, at 19.0 million boxes (760,000 tons), is down 5 percent from last month and down 17 percent from the 2018-2019 season. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 930,000 tons, down 4 percent from the previous forecast and down 14 percent from last season's final utilization. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 22.0 million boxes (880,000 ton), is down 4 percent from the previous forecast and down 15 percent from last year. Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States farms as of December 1, 2019 totaled 84.5 million tons, up 7 percent from the previous December. Disappearance from May 1, 2019 - December 1, 2019 totaled 59.3 million tons, compared with 59.9 million tons for the same period a year earlier. The largest increases in stocks from one year ago were seen in Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Dakota, and Texas, all resulting from increases in dry hay production. December 1 hay stocks levels were record lows in Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Maine, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 5.2 percent. However, if you exclude the three abnormal production years (three hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 5.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 5.2 percent, or 5.5 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 9.0 percent, or 9.5 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 320,000 tons (334,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 2,000 tons to 843,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 7 times and above 10 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch...................................................... (202) 720-2127 Travis Thorson, Head, Field Crops Section............................................. (202) 720-7369 David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports............................... (202) 720-3338 Chris Hawthorn - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet..................................... (202) 720-9526 James Johanson - County Estimates, Hay............................................ (202) 690-8533 Jeff Lemmons - Oats, Soybeans..................................................... (202) 690-3234 Sammy Neal - Peanuts, Rice........................................................ (202) 720-7688 Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather, Barley............................................... (202) 720-7621 Jean Porter - Rye, Wheat.......................................................... (202) 720-8068 Chris Singh - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.................................... (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds........................................ (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............... (202) 720-2127 Joshua Bates - Almonds, Apples, Apricots, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco.................................................... (202) 720-4288 Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Dry Beans, Garlic, Hazelnuts, Honeydews, Kiwifruit, Lettuce, Maple Syrup, Mint, Pears, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Tomatoes..................... (202) 720-2127 Fleming Gibson - Cauliflower, Celery, Grapefruit, Lemons, Macadamia, Mandarins and tangerines, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges.................................. (202) 720-5412 Greg Lemmons - Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes, Tame Blueberries, Wild Blueberries.................................................... (202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Artichokes, Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Lentils, Nectarines, Papayas, Peaches, Snap Beans, Spinach, Walnuts, Watermelons .... (202) 720-3250 Dawn Smoker - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans.............................. (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. The new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or subscribe, they are located at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at program.intake@usda.gov.