Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released April 9, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 1 Percent from March Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2019-2020 season is 5.19 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 4 percent from the revised 2018-2019 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 70.0 million boxes (3.15 million tons), is down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 3 percent from last season's revised final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 30.0 million boxes (1.35 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 1 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 40.0 million boxes (1.80 million tons), is down 2 percent from the previous forecast and 3 percent below last season's revised final utilization. The California all orange forecast is 48.5 million boxes (1.94 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 6 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast, at 40.0 million boxes (1.60 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 5 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast, at 8.50 million boxes (340,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 10 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 2.30 million boxes (98,000 tons), is down 10 percent from the previous forecast and down 8 percent from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on April 9, 2020. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Stephen L. Censky Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2018-2019 and Forecasted April 1, 2020............................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 March Weather Summary.................................................................................... 13 March Agricultural Summary............................................................................... 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts......................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 This page intentionally left blank. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2018-2019 and Forecasted April 1, 2020 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2018-2019 : 2019-2020 : 2018-2019 : 2019-2020 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ------ ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ............: 51,400 48,500 2,056 1,940 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 42,000 40,000 1,680 1,600 Valencia ..................: 9,400 8,500 376 340 : Florida, all ...............: 71,850 70,000 3,233 3,150 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 30,400 30,000 1,368 1,350 Valencia ..................: 41,450 40,000 1,865 1,800 : Texas, all .................: 2,500 2,300 106 98 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 2,210 1,800 94 77 Valencia ..................: 290 500 12 21 : United States, all .........: 125,750 120,800 5,395 5,188 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 74,610 71,800 3,142 3,027 Valencia ..................: 51,140 49,000 2,253 2,161 : Grapefruit : California .................: 4,100 4,300 164 172 Florida, all ...............: 4,510 5,200 192 221 Red .......................: 3,740 4,300 159 183 White .....................: 770 900 33 38 Texas ......................: 6,100 5,800 244 232 : United States ..............: 14,710 15,300 600 625 : Tangerines and mandarins 3/ : California .................: 26,500 23,000 1,060 920 Florida ....................: 990 1,050 47 50 : United States ..............: 27,490 24,050 1,107 970 : Lemons : Arizona ....................: 1,350 1,900 54 76 California .................: 23,700 21,000 948 840 : United States ..............: 25,050 22,900 1,002 916 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,721 2,921 2,182 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 89,700 96,990 81,482 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,587 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) (NA) 52,425 53,283 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 16,743 All other ............................: (NA) 35,682 Oats ...................................: 2,810 3,012 826 Proso millet ...........................: 506 465 Rice ...................................: 2,540 2,847 2,472 Rye ....................................: 1,865 310 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 5,265 5,820 4,675 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 339 Wheat, all .............................: 45,158 44,655 37,162 Winter ...............................: 31,159 30,775 24,327 Durum ................................: 1,339 1,290 1,175 Other spring .........................: 12,660 12,590 11,660 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,040.0 1,989.0 1,910.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 374 270 319 Mustard seed ...........................: 98.0 90.0 Peanuts ................................: 1,427.7 1,529.0 1,391.7 Rapeseed ...............................: 11.3 10.4 Safflower ..............................: 165.8 152.7 Soybeans for beans .....................: 76,100 83,510 75,021 Sunflower ..............................: 1,350.6 1,558.0 1,244.5 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 13,737.8 13,703.0 11,804.5 Upland ...............................: 13,508.0 13,475.0 11,580.0 American Pima ........................: 229.8 228.0 224.5 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,132.0 1,138.5 979.3 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 913.2 Tobacco ................................: (NA) (NA) 227.1 201.8 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 451.4 306.0 404.0 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,287.4 1,372.0 1,176.5 Dry edible peas ........................: 1,103.0 971.0 1,052.0 Lentils ................................: 486.0 474.0 431.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 56.5 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 52.4 Potatoes ...............................: 968.3 942.2 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 18.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 77.7 169,566 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 168.0 13,691,561 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.2 132,807 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.46 128,864 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.28 54,875 All other ........................tons: 2.07 73,989 Oats ............................bushels: 64.3 53,148 Proso millet ....................bushels: 35.7 16,608 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,471 184,675 Rye .............................bushels: 34.3 10,622 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 73.0 341,460 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 11.9 4,019 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 51.7 1,920,139 Winter ........................bushels: 53.6 1,304,003 Durum .........................bushels: 45.7 53,756 Other spring ..................bushels: 48.2 562,380 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,781 3,402,000 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 6,232.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 20.0 6,395 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 706 63,580 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,949 5,496,087 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,160 22,464 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,272 194,295 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 47.4 3,558,281 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,562 1,943,435 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 817 20,102.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 803 19,380.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,544 722.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 29.2 28,600 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 35.0 31,937 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,060 467,956 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,544 6,237 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 1,769 20,811 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 2,124 22,346 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,250 5,388 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,981 112,041.2 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,240 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 846,491 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 104 5,452 Potatoes ............................cwt: 449 422,890 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 130 2,413 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,101,160 1,182,100 883,030 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,300,690 39,250,880 32,974,950 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,665,690 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 21,215,870 21,563,100 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,775,720 All other ....................: (NA) 14,440,150 Oats ...........................: 1,137,180 1,218,930 334,270 Proso millet ...................: 204,770 188,180 Rice ...........................: 1,027,910 1,152,150 1,000,390 Rye ............................: 754,750 125,450 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,130,690 2,355,300 1,891,930 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 137,190 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,274,990 18,071,430 15,039,090 Winter .......................: 12,609,740 12,454,330 9,844,890 Durum ........................: 541,880 522,050 475,510 Other spring .................: 5,123,380 5,095,050 4,718,690 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 825,570 804,930 772,960 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 151,350 109,270 129,100 Mustard seed ...................: 39,660 36,420 Peanuts ........................: 577,780 618,770 563,210 Rapeseed .......................: 4,570 4,210 Safflower ......................: 67,100 61,800 Soybeans for beans .............: 30,796,910 33,795,660 30,360,250 Sunflower ......................: 546,570 630,510 503,640 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 5,559,550 5,545,470 4,777,160 Upland .......................: 5,466,550 5,453,200 4,686,310 American Pima ................: 93,000 92,270 90,850 Sugarbeets .....................: 458,110 460,740 396,310 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 369,560 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 91,910 81,670 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 182,680 123,840 163,490 Dry edible beans ...............: 521,000 555,230 476,120 Dry edible peas ................: 446,370 392,950 425,730 Lentils ........................: 196,680 191,820 174,420 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 22,880 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 21,210 Potatoes .......................: 391,860 381,300 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,490 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.18 3,691,860 Corn for grain .........................: 10.55 347,781,670 Corn for silage ........................: 45.20 120,480,480 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.51 116,903,450 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.35 49,781,760 All other ............................: 4.65 67,121,690 Oats ...................................: 2.31 771,440 Proso millet ...........................: 2.00 376,660 Rice ...................................: 8.37 8,376,720 Rye ....................................: 2.15 269,810 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.58 8,673,480 Sorghum for silage .....................: 26.58 3,645,980 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.47 52,257,620 Winter ...............................: 3.60 35,489,150 Durum ................................: 3.08 1,463,000 Other spring .........................: 3.24 15,305,480 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.00 1,543,120 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 5,653,580 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.26 162,440 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.79 28,840 Peanuts ................................: 4.43 2,492,980 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.42 10,190 Safflower ..............................: 1.43 88,130 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.19 96,840,540 Sunflower ..............................: 1.75 881,530 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.92 4,376,690 Upland ...............................: 0.90 4,219,500 American Pima ........................: 1.73 157,200 Sugarbeets .............................: 65.47 25,945,480 Sugarcane ..............................: 78.40 28,972,760 Tobacco ................................: 2.31 212,260 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.73 282,910 Dry edible beans .......................: 1.98 943,970 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.38 1,013,600 Lentils ................................: 1.40 244,400 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.22 50,820 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 21,200 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 383,960 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.12 2,470 Potatoes ...............................: 50.31 19,181,970 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.15 1,090 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2019-2020 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 600 625 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,002 916 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 5,395 5,188 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,107 970 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,630.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 64,500 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 362,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 290.2 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 26,430 Cranberries .........................barrel: 9,040,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 7,500,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 733,500 Pears .................................tons: 805,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: 110,000 Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,200,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 49,000 Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 264,500 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 630,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2019-2020 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2019 : 2020 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 544,310 566,990 Lemons ....................................: 909,000 830,980 Oranges ...................................: 4,894,260 4,706,470 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 1,004,250 879,970 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,821,690 Apricots ..................................: 58,510 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 328,400 Cherries, Tart ............................: 131,630 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 11,990 Cranberries ...............................: 410,050 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 6,803,890 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 665,420 Pears .....................................: 730,280 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: 99,790 Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 997,900 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 44,450 Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 119,980 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 571,530 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. March Weather Summary A wet March in California's key watershed areas dented seasonal precipitation deficits and improved the average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack from 10 to 15 inches, according to the California Department of Water Resources. However, the 15-inch equivalency on April 1, the traditional peak snowpack date, was barely one-half of normal. Pockets of dryness and drought existed in other areas of the West, including the Four Corners region, the Great Basin, and the Pacific Northwest (excluding western Washington). In contrast, March was a very wet month across the southern tier of the West, stretching from southern California to southern New Mexico. Meanwhile, drought intensified during March along and near the Gulf Coast, including Florida, amid summer-like heat and near-record to record-setting dryness. No measurable rain fell during the month in Florida locations such as Tampa and Lakeland. By March 29, Florida's topsoil moisture was rated 65 percent very short to short, up from 20 percent just 4 weeks earlier. Although the dryness favored planting operations, there was little moisture for germination and establishment. In Texas, 56 percent of the intended rice acreage had been planted by March 29, compared to the 5-year average of 25 percent. While drought worsened in coastal Texas, interior sections of southern Texas received much-needed rain. Many other parts of the country, including the southern Plains and interior South, experienced a wet month, hampering spring fieldwork. By late March, topsoil moisture in Tennessee was rated 60 percent surplus. Early-spring precipitation also plagued much of the Midwest, maintaining soggy conditions in fields and feedlots. Late-March topsoil moisture was rated at least one-half surplus in several Midwestern States, including Ohio (72 percent), Illinois (56 percent), Missouri (56 percent), Indiana (53 percent), and Michigan (50 percent). Farther west, conditions remained mostly favorable on the Plains, where all major winter wheat-production states reported at least one-half of the winter wheat rated in good to excellent condition by late March. Still, pockets of drought on the High Plains adversely affected a portion of the crop, with 27 percent of Colorado's winter wheat rated very poor to poor. In North Dakota, the corn harvest was 75 percent complete by the end of March, although a mild, mostly dry month allowed for orderly melting of snow that had been on the ground in the eastern part of the state since Thanksgiving. In fact, warmer-than-normal March weather dominated areas from the Plains to the East Coast, with temperatures averaging at least 5°F above normal across much of the southern and eastern United States. Conversely, cooler-than- normal conditions covered the West, particularly across southern California and the Desert Southwest. March Agricultural Summary March was warmer than normal for most of the eastern half of the Nation. Temperatures averaged 5°F or more above normal for most of the South and much of the Mid-Atlantic Region. Much of the Gulf Coast saw temperatures 8°F or more above normal for the month of March. In contrast, much of the western half of the Nation saw below average temperatures for the month of March. In parts of California and Montana temperatures averaged 5°F or more below normal. During the month of March, much of the Midwest, the South, the Southwest, and Texas, received higher than average precipitation. Much of the South received 6 inches of rain or more. In contrast, Florida, the Gulf Coast Region, and parts of the Northwest and Upper Midwest saw drier than normal conditions, with most of Florida and the Gulf Coast receiving little or no rain in March. In Kansas, 43 percent of the winter wheat acreage was rated in good to excellent condition on March 1, but improved during the month with 50 percent rated in good to excellent condition on March 29. In Texas, 36 percent of the acreage was rated in good to excellent condition on March 1, but improved during the month with 56 percent of the acreage rated in good to excellent condition on March 29. In Arizona and Texas, 19 percent and 29 percent of pasture and rangeland was rated in very poor to poor condition, respectively on March 1. On March 29, Arizona had 20 percent of pasture and rangeland rated very poor to poor. In Texas, conditions had improved with 22 percent of pasture and rangeland rated in very poor to poor condition. In Florida, March temperatures were on average 1 to 10 degrees warmer than historical values. Total rainfall for the month ranged from no rain in multiple locations to 3.7 inches in Leon County. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the State went from 39.5 percent experiencing abnormally dry conditions at the beginning of March to 88.5 percent by the end of the month. Pasture conditions steadily declined throughout the month due to the dry soil and the increasing temperatures. Cattle conditions remained mostly good. Sugarcane harvest was ongoing. Pest and disease pressures were reported on strawberries and tomatoes throughout the month. Citrus fruit harvested for the fresh market included white and red grapefruit, Valencia oranges, as well as Honey, Tango, and Royal tangerines. Citrus grove activities were normal for this time of year, which included mowing before harvest, fertilizing, hedging, topping, and irrigation. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2019-2020 grapefruit crop is forecast at 625,000 tons, down 2 percent from the previous forecast but up 4 percent from last season's revised final utilization. In Texas, expected production, at 5.80 million boxes (232,000 tons), is down 6 percent from the previous forecast and down 5 percent from last year. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 970,000 tons, up 4 percent from the previous forecast but down 12 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 23.0 million boxes (920,000 ton), is up 5 percent from the previous forecast but down 13 percent from last year's revised total. Lemons: The 2019-2020 United States lemon crop is forecast at 916,000 tons, up 12 percent from previous forecast but down 9 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California production forecast, at 21.0 million boxes (840,000 tons), is up 11 percent from last month but down 11 percent from the revised 2018-2019 season total. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September of last year, the number of bearing trees and number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.0 percent. However, if you exclude the four abnormal production years (three hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.2 percent. This means chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.0 percent, or 3.2 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.2 percent, or 5.6 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 155,000 tons (174,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 0 to 502,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times, above 11 times, and equal once (below 6 times, above 10 times, and equal once excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 3.0 5.2 155 0 502 8 11 Oranges 1/ 2/ ..........tons: 3.2 5.6 174 0 502 6 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. 2/ Excluding freeze and hurricane seasons. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................... (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section........................................... (202) 720-2127 David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports........................ (202) 720-8800 Chris Hawthorn - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet.................................. (202) 720-2127 James Johanson - County Estimates, Hay......................................... (202) 690-8533 Jeff Lemmons - Oats, Soybeans.................................................. (202) 690-3234 Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather.................................................... (202) 720-7621 Chris Hawthorn - Peanuts, Rice................................................. (202) 720-2127 Jean Porter - Rye, Wheat....................................................... (202) 720-8068 Chris Singh - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum...................................... (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Barley, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds............................. (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............. (202) 720-2127 Joshua Bates - Almonds, Apples, Apricots, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco.................................................. (202) 720-4288 Fleming Gibson - Cauliflower, Celery, Grapefruit, Lemons, Macadamia, Mandarins and tangerines, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges................................ (202) 720-5412 Greg Lemmons - Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes, Tame Blueberries, Wild Blueberries.................................................. (202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Artichokes, Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Lentils, Nectarines, Papayas, Peaches, Snap Beans, Spinach, Walnuts, Watermelons .. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Dry Beans, Garlic, Hazelnuts, Honeydews, Kiwifruit, Lettuce, Maple Syrup, Mint, Pears, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Tomatoes................... (202) 720-2157 Dawn Smoker - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans............................ 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