Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released April 11, 2017, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 1 Percent from March The United States all orange forecast for the 2016-2017 season is 5.11 million tons, down 1 percent from last month and down 16 percent from the 2015-2016 revised final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 67.0 million boxes (3.02 million tons), is unchanged from last month but down 18 percent from last season's revised final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 33.0 million boxes (1.49 million tons), unchanged from last month but down 9 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 34.0 million boxes (1.53 million tons), is unchanged from last month but down 25 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.00 million boxes (320,000 tons), up 3 percent from the previous forecast but down 29 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 43.0 million boxes (1.72 million tons), down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 9 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.37 million boxes (59,000 tons), is down 24 percent from the previous forecast and down 19 percent from last season's final utilization. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2016-2017 season is 1.42 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 1 percent from last month but up 1 percent from last season's final yield of 1.41 gallons per box. The early and midseason portion is final at 1.34 gallons per box, unchanged from last month but down 1 percent from last season's final yield of 1.35 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.54 gallons per box, unchanged from last month but up 5 percent from last year's final yield of 1.47 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on April 11, 2017. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Michael L. Young Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2015-2016 and Forecasted April 1, 2017............................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2016 and 2017.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2016 and 2017.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2016 and 2017.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2016 and 2017................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 March Weather Summary.................................................................................... 13 March Agricultural Summary............................................................................... 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 16 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 17 This page intentionally left blank. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2015-2016 and Forecasted April 1, 2017 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent 2/ Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2015-2016 : 2016-2017 : 2015-2016 : 2016-2017 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 boxes ------- ------- 1,000 tons ------ Oranges : California, all ..............: 58,500 51,000 2,340 2,040 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 47,200 43,000 1,888 1,720 Valencia ....................: 11,300 8,000 452 320 : Florida, all .................: 81,700 67,000 3,677 3,015 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 36,100 33,000 1,625 1,485 Valencia ....................: 45,600 34,000 2,052 1,530 : Texas, all ...................: 1,691 1,370 71 59 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 1,351 1,050 57 45 Valencia ....................: 340 320 14 14 : United States, all ...........: 141,891 119,370 6,088 5,114 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 84,651 77,050 3,570 3,250 Valencia ....................: 57,240 42,320 2,518 1,864 : Grapefruit : California ...................: 3,800 3,800 152 152 Florida, all .................: 10,800 8,100 459 345 Red .........................: 8,310 6,600 353 281 White .......................: 2,490 1,500 106 64 Texas ........................: 4,800 4,700 192 188 : United States ................: 19,400 16,600 803 685 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California ...................: 21,600 22,000 864 880 Florida 5/ ...................: 1,415 1,640 67 78 : United States ................: 23,015 23,640 931 958 : Lemons : Arizona ......................: 1,750 1,700 70 68 California ...................: 20,900 19,000 836 760 : United States ................: 22,650 20,700 906 828 : Tangelos 6/ : Florida ......................: 390 (NA) 18 (NA) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. For 2015-2016 included small quantities of Temples in Florida. Beginning in 2016-2017 Temples in Florida are included in tangerines and mandarins. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 5/ Small quantities of Temples in Florida 6/ Beginning in 2016-2017, tangelos are included in tangerines and mandarins for Florida. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2016 and 2017 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2017 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3,052 2,548 2,558 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 94,004 89,996 86,748 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,186 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) (NA) 53,461 52,811 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 16,885 All other ............................: (NA) 36,576 Oats ...................................: 2,828 2,699 981 Proso millet ...........................: 443 413 Rice ...................................: 3,150 2,626 3,097 Rye ....................................: 1,891 414 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 6,690 5,757 6,163 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 298 Wheat, all .............................: 50,154 46,059 43,890 Winter ...............................: 36,137 32,747 30,222 Durum ................................: 2,412 2,004 2,365 Other spring .........................: 11,605 11,308 11,303 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1,714.0 1,927.0 1,685.7 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 374 313 367 Mustard seed ...........................: 103.1 98.2 Peanuts ................................: 1,671.0 1,751.0 1,547.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 11.0 10.5 Safflower ..............................: 161.1 154.4 Soybeans for beans .....................: 83,433 89,482 82,736 Sunflower ..............................: 1,596.6 1,454.0 1,534.0 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 10,074.5 12,233.0 9,521.7 Upland ...............................: 9,880.0 12,001.0 9,332.0 American Pima ........................: 194.5 232.0 189.7 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,163.4 1,134.8 1,126.2 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 903.1 Tobacco ................................: (NA) (NA) 319.7 318.0 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...................: 38.0 26.0 28.0 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,662.0 1,866.0 1,558.6 Chickpeas, all .......................: 325.3 498.0 320.0 Large ...............................: 211.5 343.0 209.2 Small ...............................: 113.8 155.0 110.8 Dry edible peas ........................: 1,382.0 1,141.0 1,329.8 Lentils ................................: 933.0 1,055.0 908.0 Wrinkled seed peas .....................: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 50.9 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 65.3 Potatoes, all ..........................: 1,034.0 1,007.7 Spring ...............................: 51.0 52.0 48.0 Summer ...............................: 62.2 60.7 Fall .................................: 920.8 899.0 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 24.5 Sweet potatoes .........................: 168.1 158.4 163.3 Taro (Hawaii) ..........................: (NA) (D) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2016 and 2017 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2017 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per acre : Production Crop :---------------------------------------------- : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ----- : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 77.9 199,282 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 174.6 15,148,038 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.3 125,670 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.52 134,781 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.45 58,263 All other ........................tons: 2.09 76,518 Oats ............................bushels: 66.0 64,770 Proso millet ....................bushels: 30.4 12,558 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,237 224,145 Rye .............................bushels: 32.5 13,451 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 77.9 480,261 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 14.0 4,171 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 52.6 2,309,675 Winter ........................bushels: 55.3 1,671,532 Durum .........................bushels: 44.0 104,116 Other spring ..................bushels: 47.2 534,027 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,824 3,075,200 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 5,418.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 23.7 8,680 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 980 96,270 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,675 5,684,610 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,840 19,320 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,425 220,090 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 52.1 4,306,671 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,731 2,654,735 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 855 16,958.5 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 844 16,401.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,411 557.5 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 32.7 36,881 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 35.6 32,118 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 1,967 628,720 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas 2/ .............cwt: 1,704 477 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 1,842 28,712 Chickpeas, all 2/ .................cwt: 1,702 5,447 Large 2/ .........................cwt: 1,677 3,509 Small 2/ .........................cwt: 1,749 1,938 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 2,086 27,737 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,397 12,685 Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt: (NA) 439 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,713 87,139.6 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,207 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 945,639 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 89 5,800 Potatoes, all .......................cwt: 437 440,725 Spring ............................cwt: 316 15,171 Summer ............................cwt: 323 19,602 Fall ..............................cwt: 452 405,952 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 131 3,208 Sweet potatoes ......................cwt: 193 31,546 Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds: (D) (D) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2016 and 2017 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2017 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,235,110 1,031,150 1,035,200 Corn for grain 1/ ..............:38,042,480 36,420,480 35,106,050 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,503,410 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 21,635,130 21,372,080 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,833,190 All other ....................: (NA) 14,801,940 Oats ...........................: 1,144,460 1,092,260 397,000 Proso millet ...................: 179,280 167,140 Rice ...........................: 1,274,770 1,062,720 1,253,320 Rye ............................: 765,270 167,540 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,707,380 2,329,800 2,494,100 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 120,600 Wheat, all 2/ ..................:20,296,820 18,639,620 17,761,840 Winter .......................:14,624,280 13,252,380 12,230,540 Durum ........................: 976,110 811,000 957,090 Other spring .................: 4,696,430 4,576,230 4,574,210 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 693,640 779,840 682,190 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 151,350 126,670 148,520 Mustard seed ...................: 41,720 39,740 Peanuts ........................: 676,240 708,610 626,060 Rapeseed .......................: 4,450 4,250 Safflower ......................: 65,200 62,480 Soybeans for beans .............:33,764,500 36,212,470 33,482,430 Sunflower ......................: 646,130 588,420 620,790 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,077,050 4,950,570 3,853,340 Upland .......................: 3,998,340 4,856,680 3,776,570 American Pima ................: 78,710 93,890 76,770 Sugarbeets .....................: 470,820 459,240 455,760 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 365,480 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 129,360 128,690 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 15,380 10,520 11,330 Dry edible beans ...............: 672,590 755,150 630,750 Chickpeas 2/ .................: 131,650 201,540 129,500 Large .......................: 85,590 138,810 84,660 Small .......................: 46,050 62,730 44,840 Dry edible peas ................: 559,280 461,750 538,160 Lentils ........................: 377,580 426,950 367,460 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 20,580 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 26,430 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 418,450 407,810 Spring .......................: 20,640 21,040 19,430 Summer .......................: 25,170 24,560 Fall .........................: 372,640 363,820 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 9,910 Sweet potatoes .................: 68,030 64,100 66,090 Taro (Hawaii) ..................: (NA) (D) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2016 and 2017 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2017 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.19 4,338,850 Corn for grain .........................: 10.96 384,777,890 Corn for silage ........................: 45.54 114,005,910 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.65 122,271,270 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.74 52,855,300 All other ............................: 4.69 69,415,960 Oats ...................................: 2.37 940,130 Proso millet ...........................: 1.70 284,810 Rice ...................................: 8.11 10,167,050 Rye ....................................: 2.04 341,670 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.89 12,199,190 Sorghum for silage .....................: 31.38 3,783,870 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.54 62,859,050 Winter ...............................: 3.72 45,491,650 Durum ................................: 2.96 2,833,570 Other spring .........................: 3.18 14,533,830 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.04 1,394,890 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 4,915,130 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.48 220,480 Mustard seed ...........................: 1.10 43,670 Peanuts ................................: 4.12 2,578,500 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.06 8,760 Safflower ..............................: 1.60 99,830 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.50 117,208,380 Sunflower ..............................: 1.94 1,204,170 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.96 3,692,280 Upland ...............................: 0.95 3,570,900 American Pima ........................: 1.58 121,380 Sugarbeets .............................: 73.41 33,457,880 Sugarcane ..............................: 79.72 29,136,960 Tobacco ................................: 2.20 285,180 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...................: 1.91 21,640 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.06 1,302,350 Chickpeas, all 2/ ....................: 1.91 247,070 Large ...............................: 1.88 159,170 Small ...............................: 1.96 87,910 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.34 1,258,130 Lentils ................................: 1.57 575,380 Wrinkled seed peas .....................: (NA) 19,910 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 1.92 39,530 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 21,040 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 428,930 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.10 2,630 Potatoes, all 2/ .......................: 49.02 19,990,950 Spring ...............................: 35.43 688,150 Summer ...............................: 36.20 889,130 Fall .................................: 50.61 18,413,670 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.15 1,460 Sweet potatoes .........................: 21.65 1,430,900 Taro (Hawaii) ..........................: (D) (D) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2016 and 2017 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2017 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2016-2017 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2016 : 2017 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 803 685 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 906 828 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 6,088 5,114 Tangelos (Florida) 2/ ...........1,000 tons: 18 (NA) Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 931 958 : Noncitrus : Apples ......................million pounds: 10,417.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 61,400 Avocados ..............................tons: Bananas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Blackberries (Oregon) .........1,000 pounds: Blueberries : Cultivated ..................1,000 pounds: Wild (Maine) ................1,000 pounds: Boysenberries (Oregon) ........1,000 pounds: : Raspberries, All ..............1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 318,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 309.1 Coffee ........................1,000 pounds: 38,640 Cranberries .........................barrel: 8,591,700 Dates (California) ....................tons: Figs (California) .....................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 7,823,900 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines ............................tons: : Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 806,600 Pears .................................tons: 782,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: 45,000 Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: 31,321 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,050,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 38,000 Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 262,700 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 670,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Production years are 2015-2016 and 2016-2017. 2/ Beginning in 2016-2017, tangelos are included in tangerines and mandarins for Florida. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2016 and 2017 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2017 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2016-2017 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2016 : 2017 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 728,470 621,420 Lemons ....................................: 821,910 751,150 Oranges ...................................: 5,522,940 4,639,340 Tangelos (Florida) 2/ .....................: 16,330 (NA) Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 844,590 869,080 : Noncitrus : Apples ....................................: 4,725,070 Apricots ..................................: 55,700 Avocados ..................................: Bananas (Hawaii) ..........................: Blackberries (Oregon) .....................: Blueberries : Cultivated ..............................: Wild (Maine) ............................: Boysenberries (Oregon) ....................: : Raspberries, All ..........................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 288,480 Cherries, Tart ............................: 140,210 Coffee ....................................: 17,530 Cranberries ...............................: 389,710 Dates (California) ........................: Figs (California) .........................: Grapes ....................................: 7,097,720 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines ................................: : Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 731,740 Pears .....................................: 709,420 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: 40,820 Strawberries ..............................: 1,420,690 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 929,860 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 34,470 Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 119,160 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 607,810 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Production years are 2015-2016 and 2016-2017. 2/ Beginning in 2016-2017, tangelos are included in tangerines and mandarins for Florida. March Weather Summary Early-March wildfires on the central and southern Plains and mid-month freezes in the Southeast highlighted an active weather pattern. The Southeastern cold snap, which caused extensive fruit (e.g. peach, blueberry) losses in Georgia, South Carolina, and portions of neighboring States, peaked March 15-17, immediately in the wake of a Northeastern blizzard. From March 13-15, wind, rain, sleet, and snow caused extensive travel disruptions from the Mid-Atlantic States to New England. In contrast, drier-than-normal March weather dominated the Nation's southern tier, from southern California to the southern Atlantic States, except in parts of southern Texas. The dry weather promoted a rapid fieldwork pace, allowing planting of corn and other summer crops to quickly proceed. However, in areas experiencing drought, such as parts of the Southeast, dry weather, mid-month freezes, and periods of unusual warmth resulted in declining crop and pasture conditions. Meanwhile, beneficial precipitation fell across the central and southern Plains, reviving rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat that had been experiencing drought stress. However, the rain arrived in the wake of wildfires that charred hundreds of thousands of acres of grassland and other vegetation, along with fences and other farm infrastructure, in eastern Colorado, western Kansas, western Oklahoma, and northern Texas. Similarly, increasingly showery weather in the Midwest boosted soil moisture but ultimately slowed pre-planting fieldwork. However, most of the precipitation bypassed the upper Midwest. Elsewhere, California experienced a break from the deluges of January and February, as the primary storm track shifted across the Northwest. Late in the month, however, rain showers and high-elevation snow returned to northern California. Persistently cold March weather was limited to the Northeast, although other parts of the northern and eastern United States experienced some sharp cold waves. In contrast, significantly above-normal temperatures stretched from the Southwest and Intermountain West to the central and southern Plains and the mid-South. March Agricultural Summary Above average temperatures stretched across most of the United States during March. Most notably, temperatures in the majority of the Rocky Mountains and the southern Great Plains were more than 6°F above normal. Conversely, New England was the only region with temperatures well below normal in March. Precipitation levels were near normal throughout much of the Nation for the month. The major exception to this trend occurred in the Pacific Northwest. Over 20 inches of rainfall fell in parts of Washington during March. The United States Drought Monitor reported most of Florida was experiencing drought conditions as of March 28, 2017. On April 2, fifty-one percent of the 2017 winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition, compared with 59 percent at the same time last year. Kansas producers reported 43 percent of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition on April 2, equal to the February 26 rating. In Montana, the percent of the crop in the good to excellent categories increased 12 percentage points during March with 63 percent rated in these two categories on April 2. Winter wheat conditions declined in the Great Lakes Region during March, but condition ratings in Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio remained at or above their respective 5-year averages in the good to excellent categories. In Kansas, the winter wheat crop was 31 percent in the jointing stage or beyond on April 2, nine percentage points behind last year but slightly ahead of the 5-year average. Oklahoma's winter wheat was 66 percent jointing at the end of the month, 8 percentage points ahead of last year and 6 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By the end of the month, Texas pasture and range condition was reported at 55 percent in the good to excellent categories, 21 percentage points above the 5-year average. Pasture and range conditions were below the 5-year average across much of the Southeast with Alabama at 35 percent, Florida at 19 percent, South Carolina at 33 percent, and Tennessee at 34 percent in the good to excellent categories. Wet and warm conditions led to more favorable pasture ratings in the West including California rated at 70 percent good to excellent and Idaho at 82 percent good to excellent. March started with a lot of variation in the weather across California as a departing Pacific system exerted its influence onto the State. Towards the end of the month, the weather oscillated between warm and wet to dry and cool as early springtime Pacific systems moved through the State. Late navel orange harvest was underway in some areas. Navel oranges, Mandarins, lemons, Star Ruby grapefruit, and late harvest Finger limes were being packed and exported for foreign and domestic marketplaces. Valencia orange harvest started. Orange groves were hedge-rowed and skirted. Seedless tangerine groves continued to be netted to prevent cross pollination by bees during the coming bloom. Cherries and late varieties of stone fruit continued to bloom. Strawberry fields continued to thrive. Almonds and pistachios continued to be packed and exported mainly to foreign marketplaces. Bee colonies continued to be moved into nut and stone fruit orchards for pollination. In Florida, processing plants finished with early and midseason oranges in mid-March. Grapefruit harvest decreased towards the middle of the month while Valencia harvest ramped up in the second half of the month. By the end of March, white and red grapefruit were still being harvested but going primarily to the processing plants. Citrus trees were in full bloom or had begun petal drop. Growers have had some success fighting greening with bactericides and pesticides and pushing dead and dying trees. In March, groves were irrigated heavily and other activities included fertilizing, hedging, and general maintenance. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2016-2017 grapefruit crop is forecast at 685,000 tons, down 9 percent from last month and down 15 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, expected production, at 8.10 million boxes (345,000 tons), is down 9 percent from last month and down 25 percent from last year. California's grapefruit production forecast is unchanged from last year while Texas grapefruit production is down 100,000 boxes from last year. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 958,000 tons, down 3 percent from last month but up 1 percent from last season's revised final utilization if tangelos were included. If realized, this will be the largest production since records began in 1964- 1965. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast is down 4 percent from the previous forecast but up 2 percent from last year's revised final utilization. The Florida forecast is up 10 percent from last month but down 9 percent from 2015-2016, if tangelos were included. Beginning in 2016- 2017, tangerine and mandarin estimates in Florida include tangelos. Lemons: The forecast for the 2016-2017 United States lemon crop is 828,000 tons, down 4 percent from the previous forecast and down 9 percent from last season's revised final utilization. Production is down from 2015- 2016 in both Arizona and California. Florida citrus: In the citrus growing region, daily temperatures were reported as average or above on most days. Daytime highs were mostly in the mid-70s to mid-80s, while nighttime lows were mostly in the 50s and 60s. There were only one or two days of cooler weather mid-month, when daytime highs barely reached the low 60s. Rainfall totals were far less than average for the month. Only five of nineteen monitored stations had more than an inch of rainfall, most of those were in the Central and Western citrus growing areas. The typical average rainfall for the month of March is about three and a half inches. According to the March 28, 2017 U.S. Drought Monitor, conditions have worsened since last month. Severe drought was affecting almost the complete southern citrus growing area. The remainder of the citrus region was in moderate drought or abnormally dry condition. Early-midseason orange harvest was completed. Valencia orange harvest was going strong primarily for processing. Tangerine harvest slowed down significantly with only limited quantities of Honey and Royal tangerines remaining. Tangelo harvest was almost over for the season. Only two-thousand boxes of tangelos were harvested the final week of the month. During March, only a third of the red grapefruit was harvested for the fresh market. Almost all the white grapefruit went to the processing plants. Bloom was reported to be over for citrus. Growers reported most trees have pea size fruit, while some had marble size and larger fruit from the multiple blooms earlier this season. Trees in well cared for groves had significant new growth. Irrigation was becoming common-place due to the lack of significant rainfall over the past several weeks. Other grove activity included dead tree removal, spraying, fertilizing, hedging (mostly after harvest), and general grove maintenance. California citrus: Citrus harvest of Cara Cara and Navel oranges, lemons, mandarins, and late harvest Finger limes continued. Fungicide applications were made to some citrus orchards. Rains early in the month impacted the overall quality of the citrus. Orange groves were hedge-rowed and skirted. A few seedless tangerine groves were netted to prevent cross pollination by bees during the pending bloom. Late navel orange harvest began in some areas mid-month. Star Ruby grapefruit harvest began with most of the fruit being packed for the domestic market. Valencia orange harvest began. California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Pruning, disking, weed control, and pre-bloom spraying continued where drying orchard floor conditions permitted. Pruning of olive groves continued throughout the month. Pruning, tying, berm sanitation, and brush shredding continued as vineyard floors dried. Herbicides were applied in some vineyards to combat the increase in weeds after the exceptionally wet winter. Some bud break was observed in vineyards mid-month. Early varieties of stone fruit, including cherries, apricots, and plums were blooming in Tulare County and the San Joaquin Valley early in the month. Some persimmons and pomegranates were leafing out. New orchards were being planted. Strong winds across the Central Valley knocked off petals and hampered bee activity toward the end of the month. Walnut and pistachio orchards were pruned as field conditions permitted. Almond bloom was progressing in the northern part of the State, while the southern bloom was nearing completion. By mid-month the almond bloom had slowed down. Bee colonies continued to be moved into nut and stone fruit orchards for pollination. Rain and wind caused some almond petal drop. Fungicides were applied in some almond orchards. Some walnut orchards were blooming mid-month. New orchards of almonds and walnuts continued to be planted. Winds that occurred during the last week of the month accelerated the drying of orchards that were flooded earlier this year. Orchard clean up continued in some of the most impacted areas. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 60 percent of the United States production last season. In August and September 2016, the number of bearing trees and number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.0 percent. However, if you exclude the three abnormal production years (one freeze season and two hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.3 percent. This means chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.0 percent, or 3.3 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.2 percent, or 5.7 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 174,000 tons (191,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 0 to 502,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times, above 11 times, and equal to once (below 6 times, above 10 times, and equal to once excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch..................................................... (202) 720-2127 Anthony Prillaman, Head, Field Crops Section (202) 720-2127 Anthony Prillaman - Oats, Soybeans (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 James Johanson - County Estimates, Hay (202) 690-8533 Scott Matthews - Crop Weather, Barley (202) 720-7621 Sammy Neal - Peanuts, Rice...................................................... (202) 720-7688 Jean Porter - Rye, Wheat (202) 720-8068 Bianca Pruneda - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum............................... (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds...................................... (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section.............. (202) 720-2127 Vincent Davis - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Cherries...................................................... (202) 720-2157 Fleming Gibson - Citrus, Coffee, Tropical Fruits................................ (202) 720-5412 Greg Lemmons - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes .................. (202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .................. (202) 720-3250 Daphne Schauber - Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts .. (202) 720-4215 Chris Singh - Apples, Apricots, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ......................... (202) 720-4288 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 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