Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released April 8, 2022, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Up Less Than 1 Percent from March Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2021-2022 season is 3.79 million tons, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 14 percent from the revised 2020-2021 utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 38.2 million boxes (1.72 million tons), is down 7 percent from the previous forecast and down 28 percent from last season's revised utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 18.2 million boxes (819,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 20 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 20.0 million boxes (900,000 tons), is down 13 percent from the previous forecast and down 34 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California all orange forecast is 51.3 million boxes (2.05 million tons), is up 8 percent from previous forecast and up 5 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 43.0 million boxes (1.72 million tons), is up 10 percent from the previous forecast and up 4 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.30 million boxes (332,000 tons), is down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 8 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 350,000 boxes (15,000 tons), is down 13 percent from the previous forecast and down 67 percent from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on April 8, 2022. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2020-2021 and Forecasted April 1, 2022............................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 March Weather Summary.................................................................................... 13 March Agricultural Summary............................................................................... 14 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts......................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 This page intentionally left blank. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2020-2021 and Forecasted April 1, 2022 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2020-2021 : 2021-2022 : 2020-2021 : 2021-2022 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ............: 49,000 51,300 1,960 2,052 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 41,300 43,000 1,652 1,720 Valencia ..................: 7,700 8,300 308 332 : Florida, all ...............: 52,950 38,200 2,383 1,719 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 22,700 18,200 1,022 819 Valencia ..................: 30,250 20,000 1,361 900 : Texas, all .................: 1,050 350 45 15 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 1,000 250 43 11 Valencia ..................: 50 100 2 4 : United States, all .........: 103,000 89,850 4,388 3,786 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 65,000 61,450 2,717 2,550 Valencia ..................: 38,000 28,400 1,671 1,236 : Grapefruit : California .................: 4,200 4,100 168 164 Florida ....................: 4,100 3,600 174 153 Texas ......................: 2,400 2,000 96 80 : United States ..............: 10,700 9,700 438 397 : Tangerines and mandarins 3/ : California .................: 28,800 21,000 1,152 840 Florida ....................: 890 800 42 38 : United States ..............: 29,690 21,800 1,194 878 : Lemons : Arizona ....................: 750 1,500 30 60 California .................: 20,100 23,000 804 920 : United States ..............: 20,850 24,500 834 980 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,660 2,941 1,948 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 93,357 89,490 85,388 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,481 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) (NA) 50,736 50,332 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 15,246 All other ............................: (NA) 35,490 Oats ...................................: 2,550 2,547 650 Proso millet ...........................: 725 662 Rice ...................................: 2,532 2,452 2,488 Rye ....................................: 2,133 294 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 7,305 6,205 6,490 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 331 Wheat, all .............................: 46,703 47,351 37,163 Winter ...............................: 33,648 34,236 25,464 Durum ................................: 1,635 1,915 1,534 Other spring .........................: 11,420 11,200 10,165 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,152.0 2,158.0 2,089.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 325 360 268 Mustard seed ...........................: 103.0 89.3 Peanuts ................................: 1,585.2 1,571.0 1,545.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 14.3 12.5 Safflower ..............................: 152.0 135.0 Soybeans for beans .....................: 87,195 90,955 86,332 Sunflower ..............................: 1,288.5 1,416.0 1,243.8 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 11,219.5 12,234.0 9,968.3 Upland ...............................: 11,093.0 12,058.0 9,844.5 American Pima ........................: 126.5 176.0 123.8 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,160.0 1,143.4 1,107.6 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 935.2 Tobacco ................................: (NA) (NA) 218.9 226.3 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 368.5 303.6 351.0 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,394.0 1,313.0 1,335.6 Dry edible peas ........................: 977.0 1,088.0 834.0 Lentils ................................: 708.0 788.0 549.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 60.9 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 44.0 Potatoes ...............................: 943.0 935.7 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 14.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 60.4 117,673 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 177.0 15,115,170 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.1 130,317 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.37 120,196 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.23 49,245 All other ........................tons: 2.00 70,951 Oats ............................bushels: 61.3 39,836 Proso millet ....................bushels: 23.2 15,376 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,709 191,796 Rye .............................bushels: 33.4 9,808 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 69.0 447,810 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 15.4 5,083 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 44.3 1,645,764 Winter ........................bushels: 50.2 1,277,365 Durum .........................bushels: 24.3 37,259 Other spring ..................bushels: 32.6 331,140 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,302 2,720,550 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 5,377.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 10.1 2,708 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 491 43,834 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 4,135 6,389,300 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,809 22,616 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,001 135,175 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 51.4 4,435,232 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,530 1,902,985 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 849 17,624.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 841 17,257.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,423 367.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 33.2 36,751 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 35.1 32,838 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,183 477,973 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 815 2,861 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 1,701 22,721 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,025 8,549 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 606 3,327 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,900 115,630.9 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 3,424 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 757,987 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 104 4,566 Potatoes ............................cwt: 438 409,671 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 119 1,775 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,076,480 1,190,190 788,340 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 37,780,640 36,215,710 34,555,670 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,622,800 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 20,532,350 20,368,860 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,169,900 All other ....................: (NA) 14,362,450 Oats ...........................: 1,031,960 1,030,750 263,050 Proso millet ...................: 293,400 267,900 Rice ...........................: 1,024,680 992,300 1,006,870 Rye ............................: 863,200 118,980 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,956,260 2,511,100 2,626,440 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 133,950 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,900,240 19,162,480 15,039,490 Winter .......................: 13,617,010 13,854,970 10,305,030 Durum ........................: 661,670 774,980 620,790 Other spring .................: 4,621,560 4,532,530 4,113,670 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 870,890 873,320 845,400 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 131,520 145,690 108,460 Mustard seed ...................: 41,680 36,140 Peanuts ........................: 641,510 635,770 625,250 Rapeseed .......................: 5,790 5,060 Safflower ......................: 61,510 54,630 Soybeans for beans .............: 35,286,940 36,808,580 34,937,700 Sunflower ......................: 521,440 573,040 503,350 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,540,420 4,950,980 4,034,070 Upland .......................: 4,489,230 4,879,750 3,983,970 American Pima ................: 51,190 71,230 50,100 Sugarbeets .....................: 469,440 462,720 448,230 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 378,470 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 88,600 91,580 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 149,130 122,860 142,050 Dry edible beans ...............: 564,140 531,360 540,500 Dry edible peas ................: 395,380 440,300 337,510 Lentils ........................: 286,520 318,900 222,170 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 24,630 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 17,810 Potatoes .......................: 381,620 378,670 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 6,030 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.25 2,562,030 Corn for grain .........................: 11.11 383,943,000 Corn for silage ........................: 45.07 118,221,590 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.31 109,039,980 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.24 44,674,310 All other ............................: 4.48 64,365,660 Oats ...................................: 2.20 578,220 Proso millet ...........................: 1.30 348,720 Rice ...................................: 8.64 8,699,720 Rye ....................................: 2.09 249,130 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.33 11,374,900 Sorghum for silage .....................: 34.42 4,611,220 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 2.98 44,790,360 Winter ...............................: 3.37 34,764,180 Durum ................................: 1.63 1,014,020 Other spring .........................: 2.19 9,012,150 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1.46 1,234,020 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 4,877,930 Flaxseed ...............................: 0.63 68,790 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.55 19,880 Peanuts ................................: 4.64 2,898,140 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.03 10,260 Safflower ..............................: 1.12 61,310 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.45 120,707,230 Sunflower ..............................: 1.71 863,180 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.95 3,837,170 Upland ...............................: 0.94 3,757,270 American Pima ........................: 1.59 79,900 Sugarbeets .............................: 74.38 33,339,950 Sugarcane ..............................: 78.71 29,790,130 Tobacco ................................: 2.45 216,800 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 0.91 129,770 Dry edible beans .......................: 1.91 1,030,610 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.15 387,780 Lentils ................................: 0.68 150,910 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.13 52,450 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 17,120 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 343,820 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.12 2,070 Potatoes ...............................: 49.07 18,582,370 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.13 810 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2021-2022 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 438 397 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 834 980 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 4,388 3,786 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,194 878 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,525.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 55,500 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 369,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 142.0 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 27,120 Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,900,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 6,470,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 696,500 Pears .................................tons: 670,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,800,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 258,000 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 670,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2020-2021 and 2021-2022. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2021 and 2022 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2021-2022 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 397,350 360,150 Lemons ....................................: 756,590 889,040 Oranges ...................................: 3,980,730 3,434,600 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 1,083,180 796,510 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,774,060 Apricots ..................................: 50,350 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 334,750 Cherries, Tart ............................: 64,410 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 12,300 Cranberries ...............................: 358,340 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,869,490 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 631,850 Pears .....................................: 607,810 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,270,060 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 117,030 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 607,810 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2020-2021 and 2021-2022. March Weather Summary Drier-than-normal March weather in many areas of the West capped an extremely disappointing winter wet season, leaving key agricultural regions facing significant impacts-including low reservoir levels, reductions in water allocations, depleted soil moisture, and poor rangeland and pasture conditions-from a third consecutive year of drought. Notably, the water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack-hovering near 16 inches (just under two-thirds of the March 1 average) as the month began-shriveled to around 11 inches (about 40 percent of the end-of-season average) by March 31. An early-season Western heat wave, which peaked during the week of March 20-26, contributed to the loss of high-elevation snowpack due to melting and evaporation. Meanwhile, significant drought impacts extended across portions of the Nation's mid-section, where similar conditions to those observed in the West led to stress on rangeland, pastures, and winter grains. By April 3, topsoil moisture on the Plains rated very short to short ranged from 46 percent in North Dakota to 96 percent in Montana. On the same date, Texas led the southern Plains with topsoil moisture rated 80 percent very short to short. Winter wheat conditions also reflected the Plains' drought, with 81 percent of Texas' crop rated in very poor to poor condition by April 3. At least one-quarter of the wheat was rated very poor to poor on that date in several other states, including Oklahoma (44 percent), Colorado (39 percent), Montana (37 percent), and Kansas (30 percent). Nationally, 36 percent of the winter wheat was rated very poor to poor on April 3-the highest amount in the first condition report of the season since April 7, 1996, when 40 percent was rated very poor to poor. Numerous large wildfires flared during March across the central and southern Plains, driven by howling winds and fed by ample freeze- and drought-cured vegetation. Among the largest wildfires was the Eastland Complex (multiple fires, beginning on March 17, combined for management purposes), which collectively scorched 54,513 acres of vegetation and destroyed more than 150 structures, many of them homes in the community of Carbon, Texas. Later in the month, 30,000- to 50,000-acre blazes included the Washita River Fire near Durham, Oklahoma; the Borrega Fire west of Kingsville, Texas; the Canadian River Bottom Fire southwest of Canadian, Texas; and the Crittenburg Complex at Fort Hood, Texas. During March, national drought coverage ranged from 58 to 61 percent. Drought coverage was last greater more than 9 years ago, in January 2013. The long- running drought has resulted in coverage exceeding 40 percent for a Drought Monitor-era record 80 consecutive weeks (September 29, 2020, to April 5, 2022). In addition, drought coverage has surpassed 50 percent for 20 weeks in a row, starting November 23, 2021, second only to a 42-week streak set from June 26, 2012, to April 9, 2013. Near the end of March, drought covered 89 percent of the 11-state Western region, while extreme to exceptional drought (D3 to D4) was affecting nearly 30 percent of that area. In contrast, wetter-than-normal conditions were common during March from the Mississippi Valley eastward, with a few exceptions. By April 3, Midwestern topsoil moisture ranged from one-third to more than one-half surplus in Michigan (53 percent surplus), Indiana (42 percent), Illinois (42 percent), and Ohio (37 percent). Pockets of wetness extended into the South, resulting in mostly minor fieldwork and planting delays. Elsewhere, several episodes of severe weather accompanied occasional showers and thunderstorms, primarily from the central and southern Plains into the Southeast. Impressive, early-season tornado outbreaks struck various regions on March 5-6, 21-23, and 29-31, resulting in a preliminary nationwide monthly count of approximately 250 tornadoes-a potential monthly record. One of the worst outbreaks started on March 5, when a rash of tornadoes in Iowa-unusual that far north so early in the year-resulted in seven fatalities in Madison and Lucas Counties. March warmth was most prevalent in the East and West, with cooler conditions more common across the Nation's mid-section. However, persistently cold weather was limited to the upper Great Lakes region, where monthly temperatures generally averaged 2 to 4°F below normal. In contrast, similar positive temperature departures (2 to 4°F above normal) were observed in the East and Far West. March Agricultural Summary March was warmer than average for most of the eastern half of the Nation. Locations in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast recorded temperatures 4°F or more above normal. In contrast, large parts of the Great Lakes and Lower Mississippi Valley were cooler than normal. Most of the Central and Southern Plains also recorded below normal temperatures for the month. In the Nation's West, most of California, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern Rockies were warmer than normal. Parts of Northern California recorded temperatures 4°F or more above normal. In contrast, much of the Central and Southern Rockies, as well as the Southwest, were cooler than normal. Locations in Arizona and Colorado recorded temperatures 6°F or more below normal. During March, large parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Southeast received at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Parts of the Florida Panhandle received at least 12 inches of rain for the month. While most of the West remained dryer than normal, locations in Colorado and New Mexico recorded at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. By April 3, four percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was headed, equal to last year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. On April 3, thirty percent of the 2022 winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition, 23 percentage points below last year. In Kansas, the largest winter wheat-producing State, 32 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated in good to excellent condition. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2021-2022 grapefruit crop is forecast at 397,000 tons, up 7 percent from the previous forecast but down 9 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 3.60 million boxes (153,000 tons), is down 8 percent from previous forecast and down 12 percent from the last season. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 878,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 26 percent from the last season's revised final utilization. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast at 21.0 million boxes (840,000 tons) is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 27 percent from last season revised total. Lemons: The 2021-2022 United States lemon crop is forecast at 980,000 tons, up slightly from previous forecast and up 18 percent last season's revised final utilization. The California forecast, at 23.0 million boxes (920,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 14 percent from the revised 2020-2021 season. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September of last year, the number of bearing trees and number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.2 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the April 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using oranges again as an example, changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20-years have averaged 148,000 tons, ranging from 0 ton to 502,000 tons. The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times, above 11 times and equal 1 time. The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 3.0 5.2 148 0 502 8 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................. (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans (202) 690-3234 David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - Barley, County Estimates, Hay (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds................................... (202) 720-7369 Lihan Wei - Peanuts, Rice.................................................... (202) 720-7688 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................ (202) 720-2127 .................................................................................. Fleming Gibson - Blueberries, Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......... (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Apples, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco................................................ (202) 720-4288 Robert Little - Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes.................................. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Garlic, Grapefruit, Hazelnuts, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges..... (202) 720-5412 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons............. (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans.......................... (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. 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