Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released February 8, 2023, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 3 Percent from January Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2022-2023 season is 2.61 million tons, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 25 percent from the 2021- 2022 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 16.0 million boxes (720,000 tons), is down 11 percent from the previous forecast and down 61 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 6.00 million boxes (270,000 tons), down 14 percent from the previous forecast and down 67 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 10.0 million boxes (450,000 tons), is down 9 percent from the previous forecast and down 56 percent from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on February 8, 2023. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Seth Meyer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2021-2022 and Forecasted February 1, 2023......................................................................................... 4 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2021 and 2022......... 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023................................ 11 January Percent of Normal Precipitation Map.............................................................. 12 January Departure from Normal Temperature Map............................................................ 12 January Weather Summary.................................................................................. 13 January Agricultural Summary............................................................................. 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of February 1 Crop Production Forecasts...................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2021-2022 and Forecasted February 1, 2023 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2021-2022 : 2022-2023 : 2021-2022 : 2022-2023 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all 2/ .........: 40,400 46,100 1,616 1,844 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 31,800 38,000 1,272 1,520 Valencia ..................: 8,600 8,100 344 324 : Florida, all ...............: 41,050 16,000 1,847 720 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 18,250 6,000 821 270 Valencia ..................: 22,800 10,000 1,026 450 : Texas, all 2/ ..............: 200 1,150 8 49 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 170 900 7 38 Valencia ..................: 30 250 1 11 : United States, all .........: 81,650 63,250 3,471 2,613 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 50,220 44,900 2,100 1,828 Valencia ..................: 31,430 18,350 1,371 785 : Grapefruit : California 2/ ..............: 4,100 4,300 164 172 Florida, all ...............: 3,330 1,500 142 64 Texas 2/ ...................: 1,700 2,200 68 88 : United States ..............: 9,130 8,000 374 324 : Tangerines and mandarins 4/ : California 2/ ..............: 17,400 22,000 696 880 Florida ....................: 750 500 36 24 : United States ..............: 18,150 22,500 732 904 : Lemons 2/ : Arizona ....................: 950 1,500 38 60 California .................: 24,900 22,000 996 880 : United States ..............: 25,850 23,500 1,034 940 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2021 and 2022 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons -- : For sugar : Florida ......................: 388.0 382.0 42.4 44.3 16,451 16,923 Louisiana 2/ .................: 466.0 475.0 29.0 33.3 13,514 15,818 Texas 2/ .....................: 34.3 31.4 30.8 21.8 1,056 685 : United States ................: 888.3 888.4 34.9 37.6 31,021 33,426 : For seed : Florida ......................: 15.5 15.9 47.5 47.4 736 754 Louisiana 2/ .................: 29.3 22.8 34.5 35.9 1,011 819 Texas 2/ .....................: 2.1 0.5 33.5 23.3 70 12 : United States ................: 46.9 39.2 38.7 40.4 1,817 1,585 : For sugar and seed : Florida ......................: 403.5 397.9 42.6 44.4 17,187 17,677 Louisiana 2/ .................: 495.3 497.8 29.3 33.4 14,525 16,637 Texas 2/ .....................: 36.4 31.9 30.9 21.8 1,126 697 : United States ................: 935.2 927.6 35.1 37.7 32,838 35,011 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from an earlier estimate. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,945 2,433 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 88,579 79,207 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,860 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 49,546 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 14,913 All other ............................: (NA) 34,633 Oats ...................................: 2,581 890 Proso millet ...........................: 637 507 Rice ...................................: 2,222 2,172 Rye ....................................: 2,175 341 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 6,325 4,570 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 525 Wheat, all .............................: 45,738 35,480 Winter ...............................: 33,271 36,950 23,459 Durum ................................: 1,632 1,581 Other spring .........................: 10,835 10,440 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,213.0 2,169.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 263 244 Mustard seed ...........................: 221.0 182.0 Peanuts ................................: 1,450.3 1,385.4 Rapeseed ...............................: 10.9 10.4 Safflower ..............................: 150.2 135.3 Soybeans for beans .....................: 87,450 86,336 Sunflower ..............................: 1,693.0 1,607.0 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 13,763.0 7,440.7 Upland ...............................: 13,580.0 7,262.5 American Pima ........................: 183.0 178.2 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,159.5 1,137.1 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 927.6 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 201.8 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 353.1 341.9 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,250.0 1,223.0 Dry edible peas ........................: 919.0 862.0 Lentils ................................: 660.0 602.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 59.8 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 34.0 Potatoes ...............................: 901.0 895.6 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 13.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 71.7 174,333 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 173.3 13,729,719 Corn for silage ....................tons: 18.7 128,567 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.28 112,801 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.22 47,958 All other ........................tons: 1.87 64,843 Oats ............................bushels: 64.8 57,655 Proso millet ....................bushels: 18.5 9,403 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,383 160,368 Rye .............................bushels: 36.1 12,301 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 41.1 187,785 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 10.8 5,662 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 46.5 1,649,878 Winter ........................bushels: 47.0 1,103,707 Durum .........................bushels: 40.5 63,981 Other spring ..................bushels: 46.2 482,190 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,762 3,821,810 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,455.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 17.6 4,304 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 557 101,290 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 4,019 5,568,150 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,863 19,380 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,213 164,054 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 49.5 4,276,123 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,750 2,812,540 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 947 14,680.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 939 14,206.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,277 474.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 28.6 32,574 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 37.7 35,011 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,217 447,367 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,070 3,658 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,113 25,847 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,751 15,092 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 912 5,489 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,694 101,286.3 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 5,028 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 702,391 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 99 3,349 Potatoes ............................cwt: 438 392,243 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 120 1,648 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,191,810 984,610 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 35,847,040 32,054,280 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,776,170 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 20,050,770 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,035,140 All other ....................: (NA) 14,015,630 Oats ...........................: 1,044,500 360,170 Proso millet ...................: 257,790 205,180 Rice ...........................: 899,220 878,990 Rye ............................: 880,200 138,000 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,559,660 1,849,430 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 212,460 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,509,710 14,358,400 Winter .......................: 13,464,440 14,953,300 9,493,620 Durum ........................: 660,450 639,810 Other spring .................: 4,384,820 4,224,960 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 895,580 877,770 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 106,430 98,740 Mustard seed ...................: 89,440 73,650 Peanuts ........................: 586,920 560,660 Rapeseed .......................: 4,410 4,210 Safflower ......................: 60,780 54,750 Soybeans for beans .............: 35,390,140 34,939,320 Sunflower ......................: 685,140 650,340 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 5,569,750 3,011,180 Upland .......................: 5,495,690 2,939,060 American Pima ................: 74,060 72,120 Sugarbeets .....................: 469,240 460,170 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 375,390 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 81,650 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 142,900 138,360 Dry edible beans ...............: 505,860 494,940 Dry edible peas ................: 371,910 348,840 Lentils ........................: 267,100 243,620 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 24,190 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 13,760 Potatoes .......................: 364,630 362,440 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 5,540 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.85 3,795,650 Corn for grain .........................: 10.88 348,750,930 Corn for silage ........................: 42.01 116,634,020 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.10 102,331,350 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.21 43,506,770 All other ............................: 4.20 58,824,580 Oats ...................................: 2.32 836,860 Proso millet ...........................: 1.04 213,260 Rice ...................................: 8.28 7,274,170 Rye ....................................: 2.26 312,460 Sorghum for grain ......................: 2.58 4,769,960 Sorghum for silage .....................: 24.18 5,136,480 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.13 44,902,320 Winter ...............................: 3.16 30,037,980 Durum ................................: 2.72 1,741,280 Other spring .........................: 3.11 13,123,060 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1.97 1,733,540 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 4,041,510 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.11 109,330 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.62 45,940 Peanuts ................................: 4.50 2,525,670 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.09 8,790 Safflower ..............................: 1.36 74,410 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.33 116,377,000 Sunflower ..............................: 1.96 1,275,750 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 1.06 3,196,190 Upland ...............................: 1.05 3,092,990 American Pima ........................: 1.43 103,200 Sugarbeets .............................: 64.22 29,550,640 Sugarcane ..............................: 84.61 31,761,440 Tobacco ................................: 2.49 202,920 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.20 165,920 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.37 1,172,400 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.96 684,560 Lentils ................................: 1.02 248,980 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 1.90 45,940 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 25,140 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 318,600 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.11 1,520 Potatoes ...............................: 49.09 17,791,840 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.13 750 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2022-2023 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 374 324 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,034 940 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 3,471 2,613 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 732 904 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,110.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 36,200 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 275,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 229.2 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 26,000 Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,440,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 5,985,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 583,500 Pears .................................tons: 690,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,600,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 68,000 Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 274,520 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 720,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2022 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2022-2023 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 339,290 293,930 Lemons ....................................: 938,030 852,750 Oranges ...................................: 3,148,840 2,370,470 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 664,060 820,100 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,585,820 Apricots ..................................: 32,840 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 249,480 Cherries, Tart ............................: 103,960 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 11,790 Cranberries ...............................: 337,470 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,429,500 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 529,340 Pears .....................................: 625,960 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,179,340 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 61,690 Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 124,520 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 653,170 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. January Weather Summary Three weeks of frenetically stormy weather from the Sierra Nevada to the western slopes of the central Rockies ensured above-average seasonal snowfall, even if dry weather were to return for the final 2 months of the 2022-23 winter wet season. The extraordinary stormy spell, which had begun in late December, helped to fill some smaller reservoirs but also caused extensive damage, primarily in California due to river flooding and debris flows. Some of the worst large-scale flooding occurred in the heavily agricultural Salinas Valley, which endured breached levees and inundation of fields, roads, and farm infrastructure and equipment. Given the cold (monthly temperatures locally averaging more than 4°F below normal), stormy weather in the West, almost all the high-elevation precipitation went into building snowpack. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack stood near 34 inches at month's end, more than twice the late-January normal and nearly 130 percent of the typical end-of-season average. Periodically significant precipitation affected other areas of the West, although January totals were below average in parts of the southern Rockies and the Northwest. Farther east, another stripe of heavy precipitation extended across the Plains and upper Midwest, with some of the heaviest snow blanketing Nebraska and portions of neighboring states. In fact, it was the snowiest January on record in Nebraska locations such as Valentine (28.3 inches) and North Platte (22.6 inches). A continuous snow cover has remained on the ground in parts of the upper Midwest since November. Most other areas of the Plains also received periods of beneficial January precipitation, although winter wheat continued to exhibit signs of stress due to poor crop establishment and effects from episodic cold waves. An Arctic outbreak in late January delivered sub-0°F temperatures as far south as the central High Plains-but was neither as long-lasting nor severe as a December cold blast. By late January, more than one-third of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition in Texas (52 percent), Kansas (47 percent), Nebraska (40 percent), and Oklahoma (34 percent). Nearly one-quarter of the wheat-24 percent apiece-was rated very poor to poor in Colorado and South Dakota. Among those six states, only Colorado exhibited a significant improvement in condition, as compared with late-November 2022. Farther east, mild, wet weather dominated areas east of the Mississippi River, with monthly temperatures averaging at least 4 to 8°F above normal in many locations. In fact, it was the warmest January on record in numerous Northeastern communities. Exceptions to the Eastern wetness included southeastern Louisiana and peninsular Florida. Mid-winter snow was notably scarce in the middle Atlantic States, with New York City setting a record for its latest first accumulation of the season-0.4 inch on February 1. Farther south, however, spring-like thunderstorms spawned dozens of tornadoes, especially from January 2-4, 11-12, and 24-25. Tornadoes were reported as far north as central Illinois (on January 3) and eastern Iowa (on January 16). The first tornado-related deaths of the year occurred on January 12, with seven fatalities in Autauga County, Alabama, and one in Spalding County, Georgia. The Nation's preliminary monthly count of 168 tornadoes was second only to 214 in January 1999. Given the overarching storminess across much of the country, national drought coverage continued to shrink. During the 5-week period ending January 31, drought coverage in the contiguous United States fell exactly 7 percentage points from 49.65 to 42.65 percent, according to the Drought Monitor. In the 11-state Western region, coverage of extreme to exceptional drought (D3 to D4) fell by more than half, from 14.08 to 6.38 percent, during the same 5-week period. However, in the Plains' core drought area, D3 to D4 coverage on January 31 stood at 45 percent in Nebraska and 56 percent in Kansas and Oklahoma. January Agricultural Summary January was warmer than normal for the eastern half of the Nation. Most of the areas east of the Mississippi River recorded temperatures 6°F or more above normal. In contrast, much of the western half of the Nation recorded cooler than normal temperatures. Parts of the Great Basin and the Rockies recorded temperatures 6°F or more below normal for January. Much of the Nation recorded higher than average amounts of precipitation. Large parts of California, the Upper Midwest, Nevada, Central Plains, Rockies, and Southwest recorded at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Parts of California received at least 18 inches of precipitation during the month. Areas in the Northeast and South also recorded at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. In contrast, most of Florida, the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and Southern Plains were drier than normal for the month. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2022-2023 grapefruit crop is forecast at 324,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 13 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 1.50 million boxes (64,000 tons), is unchanged from previous forecast but down 55 percent from the last season. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 904,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 23 percent from the last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 500,00 boxes (24,000 tons), unchanged from last forecast but down 33 percent from last year. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous forecast. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 35.0 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 7 percent from last season. Producers intend to harvest 927,600 acres for sugar and seed during the 2022 crop year, down slightly from last month and down 1 percent from 2021. Yields for sugar and seed are expected to average 37.7 tons per acre, up 0.4 ton from last month and up 2.6 tons from last season. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower survey on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 5.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 5.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 9.9 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the February 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using oranges again as an example, changes between the February 1 forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 308,000 tons, ranging from 43,000 tons to 843,000 tons. The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times. This does not imply that the February 1 orange forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of February 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 5.7 9.9 308 43 843 7 13 Sugarcane ...............tons: 3.0 5.2 1 (Z) 3 4 16 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (Z) Less than half of the unit shown. 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................. (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section......................................... (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather.................................................. (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans.......................................... (202) 690-3234 David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports...................... (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - Barley, County Estimates, Hay.............................. (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat.................................................. (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet.................................. (202) 720-9526 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.............................. (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds................................... (202) 720-7369 Lihan Wei - Peanuts, Rice.................................................... (202) 720-7688 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................ (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco................................................ (202) 720-4288 Robert Little - Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes.................................. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Garlic, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios............................................................... (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Blueberries, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......... (202) 720-4285 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons............. (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans.......................... (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov. 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