WHEAT YEARBOOK -- SUMMARY March 27, 2001 March 2001, ERS-WHS-2001 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of WHEAT YEARBOOK (WHS-2001) will be available electronically about 2 weeks following this summary release. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ending Stocks Down, Prices To Rise in 2001/02 Wheat farmers responded to unfavorable planting conditions, particularly in parts of the Central and Southern Plains, by reducing winter wheat plantings for the 2001 crop by 2 million acres, down 5 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 1971. Spring wheat (including durum) plantings are expected to rise due to lower winter wheat plantings in some areas, especially Montana, and more attractive prospective returns relative to competing crops. The calculated 2001 harvested area, based on the 5-year average by State, is reduced a half-million acres due to late plantings and emergence and currently poor conditions of some of the wheat in the Southern Plains. Total wheat production for 2001/02 (June/May) could decline about 4 percent, assuming an average wheat yield of 40.5 bushels per acre, based on the average of 1996-2000 yields by State. Coupled with smaller beginning stocks, the total supply would be about 6 percent below the current marketing year that ends on May 31. Total use is forecast down slightly because of reduced exports and smaller feed and residual use. However, the smaller use will still exceed production, and ending stocks will decline. Even so, stocks will remain relatively large, and the average price received by farmers will likely be below $3.00 again in 2001/02. For 2000/01, U.S. wheat supplies are expected to drop 2 percent to 3,268 million bushels. Total disappearance is forecast to rise about 2 percent from 1999/2000, the result of higher projected domestic use and exports. Use will exceed production, and stocks are forecast down 12 percent from 1999/2000. The season-average farm price is projected to range between $2.60 and $2.70 per bushel. U.S. wheat exports are forecast to increase slightly because of reduced competition from the European Union, Kazakstan, Australia, Eastern Europe, Turkey, and others. Some increased competition is expected from Argentina, India, and Pakistan. The top markets for U.S. wheat exports, including Egypt, Japan, Mexico, and the Philippines, are expected to be little changed. Printed copies of the Wheat Yearbook will be available in several weeks for printed copies. For further information, contact Gary Vocke (202) 694-5285. This issue contains two special articles: "The Effects of the Federal Crop Insurance Program on Wheat Acreage," and "Organic Wheat Production in the United States: Expanding Markets and Supplies." The full report will also be available on the ERS web site at http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/wheat/. THE WHEAT SITUATION AT A GLANCE ------------------------------------------------------------------ All wheat: Supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Marketing year 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 beginning June 1 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels Beginning stocks 376 444 722 946 950 Production 2,277 2,481 2,547 2,299 2,223 Imports 92 95 103 95 95 Total supply 2,746 3,020 3,373 3,339 3,268 Domestic Food 891 914 907 925 950 Seed 102 92 81 92 84 Feed & residual 308 251 397 284 300 Domestic use 1,301 1,257 1,384 1,300 1,334 Exports 1,002 1,040 1,042 1,090 1,100 Total disappearance 2,302 2,298 2,427 2,390 2,434 Ending stocks 444 722 946 950 834 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat by class: Supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Marketing year Hard Hard Soft White Durum Total beginning June 1 red red red winter spring winter ------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 2000/01: 2/ Beginning stocks 435 233 136 87 55 946 Production 1,051 448 454 247 99 2,299 Imports 0 60 0 6 28 95 Total supply 1,486 741 590 340 182 3,339 Domestic use 542 293 287 89 89 1,300 Exports 486 230 170 160 44 1,090 Total disappearance 1,028 523 457 249 133 2,390 Ending stocks 458 218 133 91 50 950 2000/01: 3/ Beginning stocks 458 218 133 91 50 950 Production 844 498 471 301 110 2,223 Imports 1 60 0 6 28 95 Total supply 1,303 776 604 398 188 3,268 Domestic use 507 322 287 116 101 1,334 Exports 420 235 180 215 50 1,100 Total disappearance 927 557 467 331 151 2,434 Ending stocks 375 219 137 67 36 834 --- -------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Includes flour and products imported and exported in wheat equivalent units. ERS estimates of domestic use. 2/Estimated. 3/ Projected. END_OF_FILE