Pr Rc 2 (3-10) Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports Washington, D.C. Released March 26, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports" call Scott Hollis at (202) 720-3570, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. This report contains price reactions to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Cattle on Feed, Quarterly Hogs and Pigs, and Milk Production reports. The USDA Cattle on Feed report is released monthly and publishes on-feed inventory, fed cattle marketings, and feeder cattle placements. Annual average price reactions to the Cattle on Feed reports are provided in this publication using prices data from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Market News reports. The USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports are published each year in March, June, September, and December and provide data on hog and pig inventory, sows farrowing, pig crop estimates, and 3-month and 6-month farrowing intentions. Annual average price reactions to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports are provided in this publication using prices data from the AMS Market News reports. The AMS prices used in this report for cattle and hogs represent sales from producers to first buyers at major markets. The price reaction to the Cattle on Feed and Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports is indicated by the difference between the price the week prior and the week after each report. The Milk Production report is released monthly and provides data on the number of milk cows, milk per cow and total milk production for the 23 major milk producing States. Dairy products price reactions to the USDA Milk Production reports are also provided in this publication. The butter and cheddar cheese prices in this publication are based on the daily cash settlement prices reported by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Weekly average prices are computed for the week before and the week after the release of each Milk Production report. Annual Cattle Price Reactions to Cattle on Feed Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing : : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 1999 : 9 0.73 3 1.11 5 0.38 7 0.50 2000 : 8 0.76 4 0.69 7 0.78 5 1.08 2001 : 5 0.84 7 1.78 5 1.87 7 1.47 2002 : 9 1.24 3 1.40 5 1.14 7 1.68 2003 : 5 3.73 7 2.41 5 1.90 7 3.24 2004 : 9 1.73 3 1.85 5 4.07 7 1.83 2005 : 2 1.65 10 1.43 5 1.01 7 1.28 2006 : 9 0.96 3 1.26 7 1.76 5 1.61 2007 : 5 0.78 7 1.36 8 1.67 4 1.51 2008 : 6 0.95 6 1.81 9 1.57 3 1.03 2009 : 5 1.72 7 0.91 6 1.26 6 0.62 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the weekly weighted average prices per cwt. for live steers and heifers from feedlots in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Minnesota. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price does not change. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Cattle Price Reactions to Cattle on Feed Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Inventory : Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 23, 2009: -7.1 83.68 81.93 80.65 -1.75 -1.28 Feb 20, 2009: -5.7 82.17 79.51 81.48 -2.66 1.97 Mar 20, 2009: -5.3 80.70 82.89 83.26 2.19 0.37 Apr 17, 2009: -4.5 86.01 88.19 87.91 2.18 -0.28 May 22, 2009: -2.8 85.12 85.08 84.37 -0.04 -0.71 Jun 19, 2009: -3.8 81.85 81.77 81.61 -0.08 -0.16 Jul 24, 2009: -5.3 83.66 83.20 82.12 -0.46 -1.08 Aug 21, 2009: -2.4 81.92 83.03 84.40 1.11 1.37 Sep 18, 2009: -1.0 84.14 83.75 83.54 -0.39 -0.21 Oct 16, 2009: 0.6 80.86 82.52 84.59 1.66 2.07 Nov 20, 2009: 1.5 83.80 82.82 83.28 -0.98 0.46 Dec 18, 2009: -0.6 79.27 80.71 82.02 1.44 1.31 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the weekly weighted average prices per cwt. for live steers and heifers from feedlots in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Minnesota. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price does not change. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. 2/ Percent change from previous year. Annual Hog Price Reactions to Hogs and Pigs Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 3/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 1999 : 4 2.52 0 0.00 2 2.37 2 3.64 2000 : 2 1.70 2 1.31 3 1.98 1 2.97 2001 : 0 0.00 4 0.57 1 1.31 3 0.68 2002 : 3 0.79 1 0.89 3 1.15 1 2.92 2003 : 1 1.24 3 2.66 0 0.00 4 1.13 2004 : 3 2.13 1 0.28 1 0.12 3 2.33 2005 : 3 0.38 1 1.85 1 6.56 3 1.05 2006 : 0 0.00 4 2.52 1 3.15 3 1.10 2007 : 2 1.85 2 2.87 1 1.45 3 2.78 2008 : 3 1.78 1 1.28 1 0.90 3 1.33 2009 : 3 0.50 1 0.86 3 1.41 1 0.54 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota starting in December 1998 to April 2001. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. 2/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota base lean prices, converted to live price starting April 2001. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. 3/ Marketing year represents December of the previous year through November of current year. Quarterly Hog Price Reactions to Hogs and Pigs Releases, 2008-2009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Inventory : Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date :Change 2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Mar 28, 2008: 6.5 37.01 38.54 39.44 1.53 0.90 Jun 27, 2008: 5.8 53.58 54.60 52.52 1.02 -2.08 Sep 26, 2008: 2.0 50.04 52.83 52.01 2.79 -0.82 Dec 30, 2008: -2.2 37.07 37.28 40.57 0.21 3.29 : Mar 27, 2009: -2.7 40.64 41.51 42.20 0.87 0.69 Jun 26, 2009: -2.0 42.01 42.42 42.68 0.41 0.26 Sep 25, 2009: -2.3 37.61 36.75 36.21 -0.86 -0.54 Dec 30, 2009: -2.0 44.92 45.91 48.79 0.99 2.88 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota base lean prices, converted to live price. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. 2/ Change from previous year. Annual Butter Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing : : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2005 : 6 0.0408 5 0.0260 4 0.0340 8 0.0319 2006 : 7 0.0105 5 0.0139 3 0.0348 8 0.0292 2007 : 5 0.0220 7 0.0171 7 0.0228 5 0.0135 2008 : 9 0.0179 3 0.0185 5 0.0226 6 0.0307 2009 : 6 0.0344 4 0.0285 6 0.0233 4 0.0236 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash butter prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Butter Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-----------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 16, 2009 : 1.5 1.1220 1.1115 1.1006 -0.0105 -0.0109 Feb 19, 2009 : 1.0 1.1025 1.1025 1.1340 0.0000 0.0315 Mar 18, 2009 : -2.5 1.1785 1.1835 1.1860 0.0050 0.0025 Apr 17, 2009 : -0.2 1.1956 1.2025 1.2095 0.0069 0.0070 May 18, 2009 : 0.0 1.2520 1.2650 1.2650 0.0130 0.0000 Jun 18, 2009 : 0.2 1.2295 1.2080 1.2050 -0.0215 -0.0030 Jul 17, 2009 : -0.1 1.1955 1.2490 1.2630 0.0535 0.0140 Aug 18, 2009 : 0.1 1.2200 1.1815 1.1685 -0.0385 -0.0130 Sep 18, 2009 : -0.2 1.1725 1.2365 1.2640 0.0640 0.0275 Oct 20, 2009 : -0.7 1.2425 1.3065 1.3640 0.0640 0.0575 Nov 18, 2009 : -1.1 1.5250 1.5250 1.5250 0.0000 0.0000 Dec 18, 2009 : -1.0 1.4380 1.3945 1.3269 -0.0435 -0.0676 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash butter prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. Annual Barrel Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2005 : 8 0.0563 4 0.0389 9 0.0324 3 0.0550 2006 : 8 0.0337 4 0.0116 6 0.0118 5 0.3230 2007 : 6 0.0904 6 0.0260 3 0.0458 9 0.0462 2008 : 7 0.0733 5 0.1247 7 0.0503 5 0.0686 2009 : 7 0.0361 5 0.0277 7 0.0386 4 0.0406 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 500 pound barrel cheddar cheese prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Barrel Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 16, 2009 : 1.5 1.0595 1.0730 1.0975 0.0135 0.0245 Feb 19, 2009 : 1.0 1.1990 1.2763 1.2045 0.0773 -0.0718 Mar 18, 2009 : -2.5 1.2800 1.3345 1.2750 0.0545 -0.0595 Apr 17, 2009 : -0.2 1.2063 1.1190 1.1090 -0.0873 -0.0100 May 18, 2009 : 0.0 1.0660 1.0800 1.0931 0.0140 0.0131 Jun 18, 2009 : 0.2 1.0970 1.0760 1.0760 -0.0210 0.0000 Jul 17, 2009 : -0.1 1.0960 1.1055 1.1540 0.0095 0.0485 Aug 18, 2009 : 0.1 1.3080 1.3615 1.3715 0.0535 0.0100 Sep 18, 2009 : -0.2 1.2494 1.2800 1.3560 0.0306 0.0760 Oct 20, 2009 : -0.7 1.4520 1.4460 1.4915 -0.0060 0.0455 Nov 18, 2009 : -1.1 1.4740 1.4540 1.5067 -0.0200 0.0527 Dec 18, 2009 : -1.0 1.4600 1.4560 1.4350 -0.0040 -0.0210 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 500 pound barrel cheddar cheese prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. Annual Block Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2005 : 8 0.0471 4 0.0290 8 0.0437 4 0.0424 2006 : 8 0.0288 2 0.0183 7 0.0116 5 0.0360 2007 : 6 0.0769 6 0.0379 3 0.0532 9 0.0565 2008 : 7 0.0611 5 0.0136 7 0.0543 5 0.0755 2009 : 8 0.0287 4 0.0335 6 0.0449 6 0.0287 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 40 pound block cheddar cheese prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Block Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 16, 2009 : 1.5 1.0720 1.0640 1.0700 -0.0080 0.0060 Feb 19, 2009 : 1.0 1.2065 1.3063 1.2200 0.0998 -0.0863 Mar 18, 2009 : -2.5 1.2410 1.2775 1.2685 0.0365 -0.0090 Apr 17, 2009 : -0.2 1.2556 1.1800 1.1780 -0.0756 -0.0020 May 18, 2009 : 0.0 1.1325 1.1340 1.1463 0.0015 0.0123 Jun 18, 2009 : 0.2 1.1495 1.1320 1.1185 -0.0175 -0.0135 Jul 17, 2009 : -0.1 1.1090 1.1120 1.1700 0.0030 0.0580 Aug 18, 2009 : 0.1 1.3330 1.3850 1.3845 0.0520 -0.0005 Sep 18, 2009 : -0.2 1.2700 1.2915 1.3880 0.0215 0.0965 Oct 20, 2009 : -0.7 1.4820 1.4490 1.5030 -0.0330 0.0540 Nov 18, 2009 : -1.1 1.5710 1.5860 1.6283 0.0150 0.0423 Dec 18, 2009 : -1.0 1.7000 1.7005 1.6394 0.0005 -0.0611 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 40 pound block cheddar cheese prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. 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