Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports ISSN: 1949-1913 Released March 25, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Special Note NASS is in the process of modifying report layouts in order to improve readability. This is the first issue produced using the new layout. This report issue is published using both layouts but future issues will only be produced using this layout. The previous layout is available on the NASS website: http://www.nass.usda.gov. Livestock Reports and Price Comparisons This report contains price reactions to the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Cattle on Feed, Quarterly Hogs and Pigs, and Milk Production reports. The USDA Cattle on Feed report is released monthly and publishes on-feed inventory, fed cattle marketings, and feeder cattle placements. Annual average price reactions to the Cattle on Feed reports are provided in this publication using prices data from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Market News reports. The USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports are published each year in March, June, September, and December and provide data on hog and pig inventory, sows farrowing, pig crop estimates, and 3-month and 6-month farrowing intentions. Annual average price reactions to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports are provided in this publication using prices data from the AMS Market News reports. The AMS prices used in this report for cattle and hogs represent sales from producers to first buyers at major markets. The price reaction to the Cattle on Feed and Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports is indicated by the difference between the price the week prior and the week after each report. The Milk Production report is released monthly and provides data on the number of milk cows, milk per cow and total milk production for the 23 major milk producing States. Dairy products price reactions to the USDA Milk Production reports are also provided in this publication. The butter and cheddar cheese prices in this publication are based on the daily cash settlement prices reported by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Weekly average prices are computed for the week before and the week after the release of each Milk Production report. Annual Cattle Price Reactions to Cattle on Feed Releases [Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and average price changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week prior to release : Week after release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing : : : : : : : : year :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : dollars dollars dollars dollars : 2000 ...........: 8 0.76 4 0.69 7 0.78 5 1.08 2001 ...........: 5 0.84 7 1.78 5 1.87 7 1.47 2002 ...........: 9 1.24 3 1.40 5 1.14 7 1.68 2003 ...........: 5 3.73 7 2.41 5 1.90 7 3.24 2004 ...........: 9 1.73 3 1.85 5 4.07 7 1.83 2005 ...........: 2 1.65 10 1.43 5 1.01 7 1.28 2006 ...........: 9 0.96 3 1.26 7 1.76 5 1.61 2007 ...........: 5 0.78 7 1.36 8 1.67 4 1.51 2008 ...........: 6 0.95 6 1.81 9 1.57 3 1.03 2009 ...........: 5 1.72 7 0.91 6 1.26 6 0.62 2010 ...........: 7 2.39 5 1.15 3 2.03 9 0.97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the weekly weighted average prices per cwt. for live steers and heifers from feedlots in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Minnesota. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price does not change. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. Monthly Cattle Price Reactions to Cattle on Feed Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average price 1/ : : : :-------------------------------: : : : : : : Change from : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :before to: release Release date :Inventory : Week : Week of : Week : week of : to week :change 2/ : prior : release : after : release : after --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent ------------------- dollars ------------------- : January 22, 2010 .......: -2.0 84.94 84.91 84.40 -0.03 -0.51 February 19, 2010 ......: -2.6 88.46 91.11 90.89 2.65 -0.22 March 19, 2010 .........: -3.2 93.38 96.28 96.02 2.90 -0.26 April 23, 2010 .........: -3.5 99.51 99.38 98.42 -0.13 -0.96 May 21, 2010 ...........: -3.4 99.87 97.13 93.60 -2.74 -3.53 June 18, 2010 ..........: 0.8 92.68 91.02 90.99 -1.66 -0.03 July 23, 2010 ..........: 3.3 93.42 94.80 92.88 1.38 -1.92 August 20, 2010 ........: 2.4 94.17 98.82 99.05 4.65 0.23 September 17, 2010 .....: 2.8 96.98 97.65 97.55 0.67 -0.10 October 22, 2010 .......: 2.9 96.56 100.97 99.74 4.41 -1.23 November 19, 2010 ......: 3.2 97.99 98.04 100.97 0.05 2.93 December 17, 2010 ......: 2.9 100.93 99.72 102.64 -1.21 2.92 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the weekly weighted average prices per cwt. for live steers and heifers from feedlots in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Minnesota. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price does not change. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. 2/ Percent change from previous year at time of each report. Annual Hog Price Reactions to Hogs and Pigs Releases [Marketing year represents December of the previous year through November of current year] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Number of and average price changes 1/ 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week prior to release : Week after release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing : : : : : : : : year :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : dollars dollars dollars dollars : 2000 .........: 2 1.70 2 1.31 3 1.98 1 2.97 2001 .........: 0 0.00 4 0.57 1 1.31 3 0.68 2002 .........: 3 0.79 1 0.89 3 1.15 1 2.92 2003 .........: 1 1.24 3 2.66 0 0.00 4 1.13 2004 .........: 3 2.13 1 0.28 1 0.12 3 2.33 2005 .........: 3 0.38 1 1.85 1 6.56 3 1.05 2006 .........: 0 0.00 4 2.52 1 3.15 3 1.10 2007 .........: 2 1.85 2 2.87 1 1.45 3 2.78 2008 .........: 3 1.78 1 1.28 1 0.90 3 1.33 2009 .........: 3 0.50 1 0.86 3 1.41 1 0.54 2010 .........: 2 0.82 2 0.60 2 2.24 2 1.12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota starting in December 1998 to April 2001. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. 2/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota base lean prices, converted to live price starting April 2001. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. Quarterly Hog Price Reactions to Hogs and Pigs Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average price 1/ : : : :-------------------------------: : : : : : : Change from : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :before to: release Release date :Inventory : Week : Week of : Week : week of : to week :change 2/ : prior : release : after : release : after --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent ------------------- dollars ------------------- : March 27, 2009 .........: -2.7 40.64 41.51 42.20 0.87 0.69 June 26, 2009 ..........: -2.0 42.01 42.42 42.68 0.41 0.26 September 25, 2009 .....: -2.3 37.61 36.75 36.21 -0.86 -0.54 December 30, 2009 ......: -2.0 44.92 45.91 48.79 0.99 2.88 : March 26, 2010 .........: -2.8 50.88 49.75 51.35 -1.13 1.60 June 25, 2010 ..........: -3.6 57.51 57.45 56.80 -0.06 -0.65 September 24, 2010 .....: -2.6 59.54 60.19 58.60 0.65 -1.59 December 27, 2010 ......: -0.9 49.12 49.82 52.77 0.70 2.95 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota base lean prices, converted to live price. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. 2/ Percent change from previous year at time of each report. Annual Butter Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases [Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year] --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and average price changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week prior to release : Week after release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing : : : : : : : : year :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : dollars dollars dollars dollars : 2006 ......: 7 0.0105 5 0.0139 3 0.0348 8 0.0292 2007 ......: 5 0.0220 7 0.0171 7 0.0228 5 0.0135 2008 ......: 9 0.0179 3 0.0185 5 0.0226 6 0.0307 2009 ......: 6 0.0344 4 0.0285 6 0.0233 4 0.0236 2010 ......: 7 0.0392 4 0.0236 8 0.0467 3 0.1115 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash butter prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. Monthly Butter Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average price 1/ : : : :-----------------------------: : : : : : : Change from : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :before to: release Release date :Production: Week : Week of : Week : week of : to week :change 2/ : prior : release : after : release : after ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent ------------------- dollars ------------------- : January 19, 2010 .......: -0.4 1.4020 1.4844 1.3790 0.0824 -0.1054 February 19, 2010 ......: -0.6 1.3420 1.3513 1.3990 0.0093 0.0477 March 18, 2010 .........: 0.1 1.4710 1.4560 1.4800 -0.0150 0.0240 April 19, 2010 .........: 0.9 1.5370 1.5700 1.5900 0.0330 0.0200 May 18, 2010 ...........: 1.7 1.6115 1.5835 1.5525 -0.0280 -0.0310 June 18, 2010 ..........: 1.3 1.5940 1.6220 1.7005 0.0280 0.0785 July 19, 2010 ..........: 2.7 1.7730 1.7910 1.8040 0.0180 0.0130 August 18, 2010 ........: 3.0 1.9045 1.9730 2.1545 0.0685 0.0815 September 17, 2010 .....: 2.8 2.2238 2.2225 2.2255 -0.0013 0.0030 October 19, 2010 .......: 3.6 2.1850 2.1850 2.1850 0.0000 0.0000 November 18, 2010 ......: 3.3 1.9980 1.9480 1.7500 -0.0500 -0.1980 December 17, 2010 ......: 3.1 1.6120 1.6470 1.6525 0.0350 0.0055 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash butter prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year at time of each report. Annual Barrel Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases [Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and average price changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week prior to release : Week after release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : year :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : dollars dollars dollars dollars : 2006 .....: 8 0.0337 4 0.0116 6 0.0118 5 0.3230 2007 .....: 6 0.0904 6 0.0260 3 0.0458 9 0.0462 2008 .....: 7 0.0733 5 0.1247 7 0.0503 5 0.0686 2009 .....: 7 0.0361 5 0.0277 7 0.0386 4 0.0406 2010 .....: 7 0.0262 5 0.0368 10 0.0220 2 0.0502 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 500 pound barrel cheddar cheese prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. Monthly Barrel Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average price 1/ : : : :------------------------------: : : : : : : Change from : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :before to: release Release date :Production: Week : Week of : Week : week of : to week :change 2/ : prior : release : after : release : after -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent ------------------- dollars ------------------- : January 19, 2010 .......: -0.4 1.4450 1.4913 1.5070 0.0463 0.0157 February 19, 2010 ......: -0.6 1.4650 1.4013 1.3290 -0.0637 -0.0723 March 18, 2010 .........: 0.1 1.2545 1.2630 1.2805 0.0085 0.0175 April 19, 2010 .........: 0.9 1.3880 1.3480 1.3690 -0.0400 0.0210 May 18, 2010 ...........: 1.7 1.3975 1.4470 1.4575 0.0495 0.0105 June 18, 2010 ..........: 1.3 1.3570 1.3800 1.3910 0.0230 0.0110 July 19, 2010 ..........: 2.7 1.5200 1.5465 1.5585 0.0265 0.0120 August 18, 2010 ........: 3.0 1.5830 1.5950 1.6365 0.0120 0.0415 September 17, 2010 .....: 2.8 1.6925 1.7100 1.7300 0.0175 0.0200 October 19, 2010 .......: 3.6 1.7325 1.7020 1.6740 -0.0305 -0.0280 November 18, 2010 ......: 3.3 1.4050 1.3895 1.4400 -0.0155 0.0505 December 17, 2010 ......: 3.1 1.3865 1.3520 1.3725 -0.0345 0.0205 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 500 pound barrel cheddar cheese prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year at time of each report. Annual Block Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases [Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and average price changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week prior to release : Week after release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : year :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : dollars dollars dollars dollars : 2006 .....: 8 0.0288 2 0.0183 7 0.0116 5 0.0360 2007 .....: 6 0.0769 6 0.0379 3 0.0532 9 0.0565 2008 .....: 7 0.0611 5 0.0136 7 0.0543 5 0.0755 2009 .....: 8 0.0287 4 0.0335 6 0.0449 6 0.0287 2010 .....: 7 0.0309 5 0.0606 9 0.0236 3 0.0424 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 40 pound block cheddar cheese prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. Monthly Block Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average price 1/ : : : :------------------------------: : : : : : : Change from : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :before to: release Release date :Production: Week : Week of : Week : week of : to week :change 2/ : prior : release : after : release : after -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent ------------------- dollars ------------------- : January 19, 2010 .......: -0.4 1.4130 1.4663 1.5130 0.0533 0.0467 February 19, 2010 ......: -0.6 1.4990 1.4413 1.3690 -0.0577 -0.0723 March 18, 2010 .........: 0.1 1.2745 1.2680 1.2870 -0.0065 0.0190 April 19, 2010 .........: 0.9 1.4295 1.3705 1.3830 -0.0590 0.0125 May 18, 2010 ...........: 1.7 1.4150 1.4805 1.4895 0.0655 0.0090 June 18, 2010 ..........: 1.3 1.3930 1.4005 1.4210 0.0075 0.0205 July 19, 2010 ..........: 2.7 1.5535 1.5970 1.6025 0.0435 0.0055 August 18, 2010 ........: 3.0 1.6180 1.6310 1.6690 0.0130 0.0380 September 17, 2010 .....: 2.8 1.7263 1.7350 1.7470 0.0087 0.0120 October 19, 2010 .......: 3.6 1.7640 1.7030 1.6580 -0.0610 -0.0450 November 18, 2010 ......: 3.3 1.4040 1.4285 1.4775 0.0245 0.0490 December 17, 2010 ......: 3.1 1.4515 1.3325 1.3225 -0.1190 -0.0100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 40 pound block cheddar cheese prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year at time of each report. 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