Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings ISSN: 2474-7440 Released January 12, 2017, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Planted Acres Down 10 Percent Winter wheat seeded area for 2017 is expected to total 32.4 million acres, down 10 percent from 2016. Approximate class acreage breakdowns are: Hard Red Winter, 23.3 million; Soft Red Winter, 5.68 million; and White Winter, 3.37 million. Winter Wheat Area Seeded - United States: 2015-2017 (Domestic Units) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop year : 2017 Crop :--------------------------------------------: as a percent : 2015 : 2016 : 2017 : of 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres 1,000 acres 1,000 acres percent : Winter wheat ..: 39,681 36,137 32,383 90 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Winter Wheat Area Seeded - United States: 2015-2017 (Metric Units) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop year : 2017 Crop :--------------------------------------------: as a percent : 2015 : 2016 : 2017 : of 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares hectares hectares percent : Winter wheat ..: 16,058,500 14,624,280 13,105,080 90 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Winter wheat: Planted area for harvest in 2017 is estimated at 32.4 million acres, down 10 percent from 2016 and 18 percent below 2015. This represents the second lowest United States acreage on record. Seeding began in early September and remained at or ahead of the 5-year average seeding pace through the middle of November when seeding was mostly complete. Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat seeded area is expected to total 23.3 million acres, down 12 percent from 2016. Planted acreage is down from last year across most of the growing region. The largest declines in planted acreage are estimated in the Great Plains. Record low acreage was seeded in Nebraska and Utah. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat seeded area totals 5.68 million acres, down 6 percent from last year. Acreage decreases from last year are estimated in most of the SRW growing States, while increases are expected in the Carolinas, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, and Maryland. Record low acreage was seeded in Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, and West Virginia. White Winter wheat seeded area totals 3.37 million acres, down 4 percent from 2016. Planting in the Pacific Northwest got off to a normal start, but by the middle of October, progress was behind the 5-year average pace in Idaho and Washington. By October 30, seeding was virtually complete in the region. Durum wheat: Seedings in Arizona and California for 2017 harvest are estimated at a combined 140,000 acres, down 8 percent from 2016 and 38 percent below 2015. In Arizona, seeding was well underway by January 1 at 22 percent complete, 8 percentage points ahead of last year. Wet conditions in California are negatively impacting planting progress. Canola: This report contains the first estimate of seedings for canola for Kansas and Oklahoma. Seedings in Kansas and Oklahoma for 2017 harvest are estimated at a combined 130,000 acres, an increase of 24 percent from 2016. This report was approved on January 12, 2017. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Michael T. Scuse Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Winter Wheat Area Seeded - States and United States: 2015-2017 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Crop year : 2017 State :--------------------------------------------------: as a percent : 2015 : 2016 : 2017 : of 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres 1,000 acres 1,000 acres percent : Alabama ........: 260 230 170 74 Arizona ........: 5 14 11 79 Arkansas .......: 350 195 180 92 California .....: 450 425 360 85 Colorado .......: 2,450 2,350 2,200 94 Delaware .......: 70 70 60 86 Florida ........: 25 25 20 80 Georgia ........: 215 180 200 111 Idaho ..........: 760 760 730 96 Illinois .......: 540 520 500 96 : Indiana ........: 290 330 290 88 Iowa ...........: 20 25 23 92 Kansas .........: 9,200 8,500 7,400 87 Kentucky .......: 560 510 550 108 Louisiana ......: 110 25 25 100 Maryland .......: 355 360 390 108 Michigan .......: 510 610 470 77 Minnesota ......: 52 11 14 127 Mississippi ....: 150 65 60 92 Missouri .......: 760 690 680 99 : Montana ........: 2,350 2,250 1,900 84 Nebraska .......: 1,490 1,370 1,090 80 Nevada .........: 8 10 17 170 New Jersey .....: 27 25 22 88 New Mexico .....: 385 340 310 91 New York .......: 120 120 120 100 North Carolina .: 650 420 440 105 North Dakota ...: 200 130 65 50 Ohio ...........: 520 580 490 84 Oklahoma .......: 5,300 5,000 4,500 90 : Oregon .........: 740 720 700 97 Pennsylvania ...: 195 190 190 100 South Carolina .: 170 60 75 125 South Dakota ...: 1,420 1,180 900 76 Tennessee ......: 455 400 370 93 Texas ..........: 6,100 5,000 4,500 90 Utah ...........: 125 120 115 96 Virginia .......: 260 210 190 90 Washington .....: 1,650 1,700 1,700 100 West Virginia ..: 9 7 6 86 Wisconsin ......: 230 270 220 81 Wyoming ........: 145 140 130 93 : United States ..: 39,681 36,137 32,383 90 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Durum Wheat Area Seeded - States and United States: 2015-2017 [Blank cells indicate estimation period has not begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Crop year : 2017 State :--------------------------------------------------: as a percent : 2015 : 2016 : 2017 1/ : of 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres 1,000 acres 1,000 acres percent : Arizona ........: 155 97 100 103 California .....: 70 55 40 73 Idaho ..........: 10 10 Montana ........: 620 780 North Dakota ...: 1,090 1,460 South Dakota ...: 6 10 : United States ..: 1,951 2,412 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Indicated 2017 area seeded for all six States and the United States will be published in "Prospective Plantings" released March 2017. Canola Area Seeded - States and United States: 2015-2017 [Blank cells indicate estimation period has not begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Crop year : 2017 State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2015 : 2016 : 2017 1/ : of 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres 1,000 acres 1,000 acres percent : Idaho ..........: 28.0 21.0 Kansas 2/ ......: (D) 25.0 30.0 120 Minnesota ......: 23.0 29.0 Montana ........: 82.0 62.0 North Dakota ...: 1,410.0 1,460.0 Oklahoma .......: 140.0 80.0 100.0 125 Oregon .........: 4.3 4.0 Washington .....: 37.0 33.0 : Other States 3/ : 52.7 - : United States ..: 1,777.0 1,714.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Represents zero. (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. 1/ Indicated 2017 area seeded for all eight States and the United States will be published in "Prospective Plantings" released March 2017. 2/ Beginning in 2016, Kansas is published individually. 3/ For 2015, Other States include Colorado and Kansas. Beginning in 2016, Colorado and Other States are discontinued. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The estimates in this report are based primarily on surveys conducted the first two weeks of December. The December Agricultural Survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of approximately 82,900 farm operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all operations in the United States have a chance to be selected. Data from farm operators was collected by mail, internet, telephone, or personal interview to obtain information on crop acreage, yield, and production for the 2016 crop year and winter wheat, Durum wheat, and canola seedings for the 2017 crop year. Estimating procedures: National, Regional, State, and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. Each Regional Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). Survey data are compiled to the National level and are reviewed at this level independently of each State's review. Estimates were based on survey data and the historical relationship of official estimates to survey data. Revision policy: These estimates will not be revised; instead, new estimates will be made throughout the growing season. End-of-season wheat estimates are made after harvest and published in the Small Grains Annual Summary report at the end of September. End-of-season canola estimates are published in the Crop Production Annual Summary report in the middle of January. Reliability: The survey used to make acreage estimates is subject to sampling and non-sampling type errors that are common to all surveys. The survey indications are subject to sampling variability because not all operations with winter wheat are included in the sample. This variability, as measured by the relative standard error at the National level, is approximately 2.7 percent for winter wheat. This means that chances are approximately 95 out of 100 that survey estimates for acres will be within plus or minus 5.4 percent for winter wheat. Survey indications are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. These errors cannot be measured directly, but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................... (202) 720-2127 Anthony Prillaman, Head, Field Crops Section........ (202) 720-2127 Tony Dahlman - Oats, Soybeans.................. (202) 690-3234 Chris Hawthorn - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet.. (202) 720-9526 James Johanson - County Estimates, Hay......... (202) 690-8533 Scott Matthews - Crop Weather, Barley.......... (202) 720-7621 Sammy Neal- Peanuts, Rice...................... (202) 720-7688 Jean Porter - Rye, Wheat....................... (202) 720-8068 Bianca Pruneda - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum... (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds..... (202) 720-7369 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 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